Investment Note

The won strengthened, yet earnings have held up. Hyundai Motor’s KRW 980bn FX contribution—our sum of two Daishin Securities estimates—is a year-on-year improvement, not translation profit earned this year. Why electronics forecasts diverged under the same currency move, and what to watch in Q4.

Samsung Electronics completed its KRW 15tn buyback on Oct. 6 while SK hynix still has about KRW 6.3tn left. From Aug. 24 to Oct. 2, the KRX 'other corporations' category bought a net KRW 43.4tn, with the two buybacks at the core of that demand. This note separates compensation shares from shares slated for cancellation, tests the historical post-buyback average against the median, filters the Oct. 8 options-expiry and ETF-rebalancing noise, and lays out three numbers to watch for the next source of demand.

Can the familiar post-midterm rally pattern be trusted in 2026? The S&P 500 rose in 5 of 6 cases from end-September to year-end since 2002, but the sample is only six elections. 2018 (−14.0%) and 2022 (+7.1%) ended in opposite directions despite both being Fed hiking-cycle years. This year starts from an already elevated market; the next four weeks are better judged through rates and semiconductor earnings.

September exports hit a record USD 120.94bn · KOSPI −19.3% in Q3 · one-year moves broadly tracked exports while most of the three-month divergence came in July (−22.2%) · 12.7% won appreciation narrowed the in USD terms decline to −7.6% · forward EPS +17%, forward P/E ~7.8x → low 4.74x → 5.55x · foreigners sold ~KRW 41.6tn net in Q3 alongside major buybacks · Q4 checklist

Over Korea’s Chuseok market closure, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 21bp. On Sep 28, Korea’s 10-year government yield rose 14.7bp in one reopening session. Real yields drove the U.S. move while the breakeven proxy barely changed; historically, policy expectations have been the main transmission channel into Korean long rates.

September 30 release of U.S. August PCE and the BEA 2026 annual update · calculation methods change for three core PCE components · the main revision window is recalculated and released the same day · watch the size of the revision, not a break in the series, and the gap versus published benchmark estimates

Sep. 15 U.S. funding markets, Sep. 16 FOMC, Sep. 17–18 Bank of Japan. Three different tests are compressed into four days, while short-term funding remains quiet and long-term yields have already repriced.

The phase-in of South Korean government bonds into the WGBI has completed 5 of 8 tranches. Foreign holdings of Korean Treasury Bonds have risen less than expected, but the maturity profile of new purchases is getting longer. This investment note examines the remaining September-November flows.

September 15 brings Treasury settlements and tax payments on the same day. There are no current signs of funding stress, but this note examines the shock-absorbing capacity of U.S. short-term funding markets in a high-rate environment.