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SNOWSHAGALINVESTMENT INSIGHT NO.20
Investment Insight No.20After the October FOMCU.S. Rates · Oil · U.S.–Korea Rate Differential

The Fed Tilts Towarda December Hike.What Comes Next Hinges on Oil

Markets have largely priced in a December hike.
What matters next is how long the oil shock lingers in core inflation.

10 to 2October vote · Both dissenters
favored a 25bp hike
~75%Probability of a December hike
FedWatch · October 30
+20.4%September energy CPI · YoY
CPI 3.7% · Core 2.6%

Vote: Fed statement, Oct. 28 · Hike probability: CME FedWatch via Reuters, Oct. 30 · Inflation: BLS September CPI1, 2, 3

Snowshagal ResearchPublished Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026About a 12-minute read

At a GlanceSUMMARY · Five Takeaways

  1. 01The October statement held rates steady but tilted toward December. The Fed upgraded its assessment of activity from “solid” to “strong,” while Governor Lisa Cook cast her first dissent since joining the Board in 2022—this time in favor of a hike.
  2. 02Markets have largely priced in a December hike, while trimming expectations for subsequent increases. On the meeting day, the two-year Treasury yield fell 3bp, while the 10-year rose 6bp.
  3. 03The path beyond December depends less on how high oil climbs than on how persistent its impact on core inflation becomes. Energy prices (+20.4%) drove September's headline inflation higher. Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed's job was to prevent those price increases from spreading across the broader economy.
  4. 04If the Fed hikes in December, the Bank of Korea's November decision will determine the U.S.–Korea policy-rate differential. A BoK hold would widen the spread to 1.25 percentage points, back to its level at the start of the year; a BoK hike would keep it at the current 1.00 percentage point.
  5. 05One separate development: The Fed plans to dedicate one regular meeting in fall 2027 to monetary policy strategy, without a rate decision. The number of scheduled meetings—eight per year—would stay the same.

Markets spent the final week of October caught between the Federal Reserve and oil prices. On October 28 (early October 29 in Korea), the Fed kept its target range at 3.75–4.00%. Oil, meanwhile, swung between news of Iran negotiations and warnings of renewed U.S. strikes after the November 3 midterm elections. WTI settled at $104.12 on October 30, its highest level in six months. The hold itself was expected. Two questions remain for investors: Will the Fed actually raise rates again in December? And will it keep hiking afterward? Investment Insight No. 14 identified the scale and duration of the remaining tightening as the key issues for this meeting. The statement, the press conference and remarks from Fed officials two days later offered the first clues.4, 5

1STATEMENT · 01

The Statement Took Another Step
Toward December

Three things changed: the vote, one adjective and one sentence. The Fed never explicitly promised another hike, but it also did not cite a weakening economy as a reason to pause.

September vs. October: What Changed in the Fed's Statement?
ItemSeptember 16 · 25bp hikeOctober 28 · Hold
Vote12–010–2Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack preferred a 25bp increase
Economic activityexpanding at a solid paceThe September assessmentexpanding at a strong paceUpgraded one notch
Policy languageToday's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.Today's hike would help bring inflation back to 2% soonerThe accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return…More information will guide the appropriate stance for a timely return to 2%
InflationInflation remains elevated.UnchangedThe commitment to restoring price stability was also unchanged

Federal Reserve statements, September 16 and October 281, 6

What Stands Out

  • Cook's dissent was her first since joining the Board in 2022. She backed rate increases in 2022 and again this September. Economists quoted by the AP saw her dissent as evidence that support for further tightening remains broad.6, 7, 8, 9
  • There were already pro-hike dissents in July. Those came from three regional Fed presidents—Hammack, Kashkari and Logan—in a 9–3 vote. This time, a member of the Board of Governors joined them.10, 11
  • The September dot plot already pointed to “one more this year.” The median year-end 2026 projection of 4.125% is 25bp above the midpoint of the current range (3.875%). Sixteen of the 18 participants projected at least one additional hike.12

In September, the second sentence of the inflation paragraph emphasized the benefit of that day's rate increase. In October, it was replaced by language about gathering more information before deciding. The statement presented the pause as a decision to await more evidence, not as a response to economic weakness. iM Securities interpreted the wording change as a clear signal of a December hike; Eugene Investment & Securities called it a “pause.”13, 14

The statement does not list the ten members voting to hold. Their identities will be confirmed when the minutes are released on November 18 (early November 19 in Korea).

2MARKETS · 02

The Press Conference Sounded Less Hawkish,
and Markets Trimmed Bets on Hikes Beyond December

The two-year yield rose when the Fed hiked in September. When it held in October, the two-year fell while longer yields climbed.

Short Yields Rose on the Hike Day;
Long Yields Rose on the Hold Day

Daily change in U.S. Treasury yields by maturity (bp) · U.S. Treasury par-yield data · Hatched bars: September 16 (hike) · Red bars: October 28 (hold)

-50+5+10bp+7−32Y+3+35Y+1+610Y−1+730YShort endLong end-50+5+10bp+7−32Y+3+35Y+1+610Y−1+730Y
Oct. 28: 2Y 4.70% → 4.67%; 10Y 4.99% → 5.05%; 30Y 5.30% → 5.37% · Sept. 16: 2Y 4.67% → 4.74%; 10Y 5.00% → 5.01%15, 16

What Warsh Said at the Press Conference

  • Financial conditions: “Financial and credit conditions have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect.” He also said investors had become more discerning about how they allocate capital.17
  • December: “The period right in front of us is information rich.” Warsh said he would not prejudge the meeting and did not believe in forward guidance outside a crisis.18, 19
  • Market pricing: CME FedWatch showed a December hike probability of 84.2% on the meeting day, 79.6% on the morning of October 29 after the September PCE and third-quarter GDP releases, and roughly 75% by October 30—close to the 73.3% reading a week before the meeting.2, 20
  • Fed officials two days later: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a 2026 voting member, said on October 30 that “at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases” were needed, followed by a pause to assess conditions. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, a nonvoting member, also called for additional tightening “soon.”21, 22

In its post-meeting review, DS Investment & Securities argued that expectations for a December hike remained intact after the press conference, while expectations for hikes beyond December embedded in the two-year yield eased somewhat. Reuters likewise reported that markets still priced in roughly two additional hikes over the coming months. Kiwoom Securities saw limited scope for aggressive, back-to-back increases, given that high borrowing costs were already making AI-related funding more selective.7, 11, 23

The rise in long yields cannot be attributed to the Fed meeting alone. WTI also gained 2.9% that day, and Kiwoom Securities cited a higher term premium—the extra compensation investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds—reflecting fiscal and inflation risks. The 10-year yield subsequently fell to 4.94% by October 30 amid a tech-stock selloff following Alphabet's and Amazon's earnings.23, 24, 25, 26

3OIL · 03

Forecasts Diverge After December.
The Question Is Whether Oil Reaches Core Inflation

Most forecasters see a December hike. They disagree on whether another follows in the first quarter of 2027.

Brokerage Forecasts for the Fed's Rate Path
Brokerage · Report DateDecemberAfter December
Post-FOMC Reviews · October 29
DS Investment & Securities · Oct. 2925bp hike → 4.00–4.25%Hold through H1 2027
Kiwoom Securities · Oct. 29HikeLimited scope for aggressive consecutive hikes
Pre-FOMC Annual Outlooks · October 26–27
Hanwha Investment & Securities · Oct. 26Hike → 4.25% upper boundHold through end-2027 (upside risk: 4.50%)
Kyobo Securities · Oct. 26Hike → 4.25% upper boundHigher for longer, rather than more hikes
Hana Securities · Oct. 27HikeAnother in March → 4.50% upper bound
Daishin Securities · Oct. 26Q4 hike → 4.25% upper boundAnother in Q1 2027 → 4.50% upper bound

The two post-meeting reviews incorporate the October statement and press conference; the four annual outlooks were published before the meeting.11, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30

September Headline CPI Was 1.1pp Above Core;
Core PCE, However, Remains Above 3%

September 2026 year-over-year inflation · Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index · Core excludes food and energy · Solid bars show headline; hatched bars show core

0%1%2%3%4%Fed's 2% target (PCE)3.7%CPI Headline2.6%CPI Core3.6%PCE Headline3.1%PCE Core1.1pp0.5ppSeptember CPIEnergy+20.4%Gasoline+34.2%Year over year0%1%2%3%4%Fed target: 2% (PCE)3.7%CPI Headline2.6%CPI Core3.6%PCE Headline3.1%PCE Core1.1pp0.5ppSept. CPI Energy +20.4% · Gasoline +34.2%
CPI: BLS release on Oct. 14; PCE: BEA release on Oct. 29 · September PCE increased 0.5% month over month (headline) and 0.3% (core), both in line with consensus · CPI and PCE cover different baskets with different weights. The headline–core gaps (1.1 percentage points for CPI and 0.5 for PCE) are therefore not directly comparable measures of the energy contribution.3, 20, 31

How Oil Prices Feed Into the Fed's Next Decision

Conceptual transmission path · Figures beneath the steps are observed data · September inflation does not yet capture October's oil-price surge · Transmission can stall at any step; employment, demand and inflation expectations also matter.

Why Oil Is the Pivot

  • The Fed is watching whether inflation spreads. Chair Warsh said energy-related prices had risen again in recent weeks, and that the Fed's job was to prevent relative price changes in individual sectors from spreading throughout the economy.8
  • Oil prices kept climbing. WTI gained more than 15% in October. On October 30, reports emerged of a tanker being struck by a limpet mine in the Strait of Hormuz. It was the first successful attack of that kind since the war began in February.4
  • Wage growth has not yet reaccelerated. Wages and salaries in the third-quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% from the prior quarter, down from 0.9% in Q2. Those figures, however, cover only the period through September. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who is not a 2026 voting member, said on October 30 that businesses faced mounting costs for diesel, semiconductors and skilled labor, and that companies in his district appeared willing to pass them through to customers. The October inflation data, due in November, will show how far that pass-through reaches core services prices.32, 33

Oil Has Catalysts in Both Directions

▲ Potential Upside Pressures

  • 10.22The New York Times reported a plan for three days of intensive strikes after the election; presidential approval remains uncertain34
  • 10.23President Trump: “We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree.” Operation Epic Fury was the name of the February U.S. strikes on Iran35, 36, 37
  • 10.29U.S. officials warned allies to prepare for possible renewed military action after the election (AP)38

▼ Potential Downside Pressures

  • 10.29Oil fell more than $2 intraday on news of a letter from Vice President Vance and a new Qatari draft peace proposal. Losses narrowed after a senior Iranian official dismissed the draft as “unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer”39, 40
  • 10.30Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours; a diplomatic source reported “positive progress” (Axios). Talks were set to continue in Doha on October 31. Trump said, “We have time”41, 42, 43
  • 10.31China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, signaling contraction; new orders came in at 49.4. Softer demand could limit oil-price gains44

The obstacle is sequencing. Washington wants nuclear concessions before talks resume; Tehran first wants the naval blockade lifted, frozen funds returned and oil sales permitted. Reports that a U.S. delegation might join direct talks in Doha have not been confirmed by either government.42, 45

iM Securities argues that oil will determine whether the Fed keeps hiking after December. If military operations resume and damage to Gulf energy infrastructure persists, WTI could exceed $112.95, its high since the Iran war began (April 7). But if a brief operation provides an exit strategy, prices could stabilize quickly, easing inflation and rate-hike concerns alike.13, 46

In its October 6 outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected Brent crude averaging $105 in Q4 2026 before falling to $84 in 2027; the forecast predates the subsequent oil surge. Under that scenario, headline inflation could move closer to core inflation.47

4KOREA · 04

The U.S.–Korea Rate Gap Could Return to 1.25pp.
The BoK's November Decision Will Set the Spread If the Fed Hikes

The U.S. policy-rate ceiling currently exceeds South Korea's base rate by 1.00 percentage point. The Bank of Korea meets on November 26, roughly two weeks before the December 9 FOMC decision.

The Gap Narrowed from 1.25pp to 0.75pp This Year,
Then Widened to 1.00pp After September's Fed Hike

Upper bound of the U.S. federal funds target range vs. the Bank of Korea base rate · 2026 · Dashed lines show possible outcomes for the November BoK and December FOMC meetings, not forecasts.

2.503.003.504.004.50JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec1.25pp1.000.751.0010/30U.S. upper 4.25%If hiked Dec. 9Korea 3.25%Nov. 26 hike → 1.00ppKorea 3.00%Hold → 1.25ppU.S. policy ceilingBoK base rate2.503.003.504.004.50JanMarMayJulSepNov1.25pp1.0010/30U.S. ceilingBoK base rateU.S. hike Dec. 9→ ceiling 4.25%· BoK holds Nov. 26 (3.00%) → 1.25pp· BoK hikes Nov. 26 (3.25%) → 1.00pp
The Fed raised its target range from 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00% on September 16. The BoK raised its base rate from 2.50% to 2.75% on July 16 and to 3.00% on August 27. The differential is the arithmetic difference between the two policy rates.6, 48, 49, 50
How the November BoK and December FOMC Decisions Could Change the Gap
Bank of Korea · Nov. 26Federal Reserve · Dec. 9U.S.–Korea gap (U.S. upper bound)
Hold at 3.00%Hike to 4.00–4.25%1.25pp · Back to the level seen early this year through mid-July
Hike to 3.25%Hike to 4.00–4.25%1.00pp · Unchanged from today
Hike to 3.25%Hold at 3.75–4.00%0.75pp

What Stands Out

  • Most brokerages expect the BoK to raise its rate to 3.25% in November. Kyobo, Hanwha, Hyundai Motor Securities, Eugene and Hana forecast one hike in November and another in Q1 2027, bringing the rate to 3.50%. Eugene says the scope for further hikes will depend on next year's economic conditions.27, 28, 29, 51, 52
  • The rate differential has not dictated the won's direction. The Korean won strengthened even after the U.S. rate hike widened the gap in September. USD/KRW closed at 1,334.3 on October 30. Investment Insight No. 16 pointed to South Korea's large current-account surplus as an important reason.53, 54

Domestic inflation, growth and housing prices will all factor into the BoK's decision. Before its meeting, the October U.S. CPI release on November 10, the October PCE release on the evening before the meeting (KST), and oil prices could shift market confidence in the Fed's December path.55, 56

5COUNTERARGUMENTS · 05

Three Factors That Could Delay or Change the Conclusion

One

Even a December Hike Is Not a Done Deal

Chair Warsh said he would not prejudge the outcome. While he acknowledged tighter financial and credit conditions for some businesses and households, he stopped short of calling conditions restrictive overall. A roughly 75% hike probability also implies about a one-in-four chance of a hold.2, 13, 17, 19

Two

Falling Oil Would Not Necessarily End the Tightening Cycle

Even a diplomatic breakthrough and lower oil prices would not automatically end tightening. Annualized Q3 GDP growth was 3.4%, up from 2.2% in Q2. September core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% year over year from 3.0% in August, and both dissenting voters favored a hike. Yet core PCE inflation on an annualized quarter-over-quarter basis slowed to 2.5% in Q3 from 3.3% in Q2.1, 20, 31, 57

Three

Oil Alone Does Not Explain Long-Term Yields

WTI rose more than 15% in October, yet the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 35bp, from 5.29% to 4.94%. The October 30 selloff in AI-related stocks prompted a flight to the safety of government bonds, according to the AP. Hana Securities found that the correlation between the 10-year yield and WTI shifted from roughly +0.6 to −0.3 after the September FOMC meeting. Warsh also noted that market yields had recently declined even as oil rose.4, 18, 25, 26, 29

The first factor puts December's decision itself in question; the second changes the path that follows. The third shows why the Fed's policy trajectory and the 10-year Treasury yield need not move together: A December hike would not automatically mean higher long-term yields.

6MEETINGS · A SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT

The Fed Plans to Turn One Fall 2027 Meeting
Into a Strategy Session Without a Rate Decision

That would mean one fewer scheduled rate-setting opportunity, while the chair avoids signaling the next decision in advance. The two-year yield turned lower when the change was announced during the press conference.

Seven Rate-Setting Meetings in 2027,
Possibly Six in 2028

Regular FOMC meetings · 2026 and 2027 dates as published by the Fed · Strategy-meeting plans based on Chair Warsh's press conference remarks

Rate-setting meetingAlso releases projections (dot plot)Possible strategy meeting (date undecided)Strategy meeting
The Fed's schedule, updated October 28, still lists all eight 2027 meetings simply as regular FOMC meetings. The meeting to be repurposed has not been chosen. Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights, quoted by Reuters, suggested October as the likely candidate.58, 59, 60

What Chair Warsh Said

  • Frequency: “Eight meetings per year is the right number,” Warsh said. In 2027, one meeting would address broad monetary policy strategy “with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement.” For 2028, he anticipated two strategy meetings and six policy-setting meetings.17, 59
  • Timing: The strategy meeting will be held in fall 2027. The exact date and what, if anything, will be released afterward have not been decided.59, 60
  • Rationale: The aim is to review near-term conditions regularly while setting aside time and space for longer-horizon strategic questions.59

DS Investment & Securities said investors viewed fewer rate-setting opportunities as a possible signal of slower tightening. It also suggested short-term yields could become more volatile on major data-release days than on meeting dates.11

This is a statement from the chair's press conference, not a formal Fed press release. It is still unclear whether the committee voted on the change or whether the 2028 schedule is final. Even with fewer scheduled rate decisions, the Fed can meet outside its regular calendar if needed, as it did for its emergency rate cut on March 15, 2020.61

7WATCHLIST · 07

What to Watch Before the December Meeting

  • Weekend

    Doha Talks and Iran's Response

    A move toward renewed negotiations could reduce the war-risk premium embedded in oil. The sticking point is sequencing: nuclear concessions or lifting the blockade first?41, 42, 62

  • 11.01Sunday

    Seven-Member OPEC+ Meeting

    Reports suggest December production targets will be left unchanged.63

  • 11.04From morning KST

    U.S. Midterm Election Results (Nov. 3)

    Whether U.S. strikes on Iran resume after the election, and how oil reacts.

  • 11.0622:30 KST

    October U.S. Jobs Report

    Does the labor market remain as “quite positive” as Chair Warsh described it?

  • 11.1022:30 KST

    October U.S. CPI

    Signs that rising energy costs have spread into core prices. The most important release for gauging the path beyond December.

  • 11.1322:30 KST

    October U.S. PPI

    How much oil and freight costs have fed into producer prices. That does not imply an immediate pass-through to consumers.

  • 11.1904:00 KST

    October FOMC Minutes

    The list of voters supporting the hold, breadth of debate over further hikes, and details of the strategy meeting.

  • 11.2522:30 KST

    October PCE · Second Estimate of Q3 GDP

    The last scheduled core PCE reading before the December FOMC meeting.

  • 11.26

    Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Meeting

    A hike to 3.25%, or no hike, will determine the U.S.–Korea rate differential.

  • 12.1004:00 KST

    December FOMC Decision · New Dot Plot

    The rate decision and the median policy-rate projection for 2027.

Release schedules: BLS, BEA and the Federal Reserve · U.S. daylight saving time ends November 156, 58, 64, 65, 66

KNOWNEstablished Facts

  • Held at 3.75–4.00%, 10–2 vote · Cook and Hammack preferred a hike
  • Economic assessment: “solid” → “strong”; language touting the hike's effects removed
  • September CPI 3.7% (core 2.6%; energy +20.4%)

ESTIMATEForecasts · Estimates

  • December hike probability about 75% (FedWatch, Oct. 30)
  • Hold after December vs. another Q1 2027 hike (depending on brokerage)
  • BoK at 3.25% in November, terminal rate 3.50% (majority brokerage view)

UNKNOWNOutstanding Questions

  • Renewed Iran strikes after the election and the oil-price response
  • Whether energy inflation spreads to core prices
  • Which 2027 FOMC meeting will be dedicated to strategy

The Bottom Line

Markets have already priced in much of a December hike. The next stage of the rate cycle will depend less on the oil-price increase itself than on how persistently it feeds through to core inflation. That is why investors should watch the direction of oil after the election, alongside the core readings in the November 10 CPI and November 25 PCE releases. The Bank of Korea meets first, on November 26. Its decision will determine whether the U.S.–Korea rate gap remains at 1.00 percentage point or widens to 1.25 after a December Fed hike.

An analysis of public data and brokerage research · Reference dates and calculation methods appear in the sources below

Methodology · How to Read the Numbers
Information cutoffOctober 31, 2026, 21:00 KST · U.S. Treasury yields, stocks and oil are measured at the October 30 U.S. close; reporting on Iran negotiations and China's October PMI is included through the evening of October 31 in Korea; Korean markets through the October 30 close.
Yield changesDay-over-day differences in U.S. Treasury daily par yields · Sept. 16 vs. Sept. 15, and Oct. 28 vs. Oct. 27 · May differ by 1–4bp from market-quote-based news reports.
Hike probabilitiesCME FedWatch figures are drawn from Fox Business (84.2% → 79.6%) and Reuters (approximately 75% on Oct. 30). These readings come from different times and outlets, so they should not be treated as one continuous series. Estimates immediately after the meeting also ranged from about 80% (Reuters) to about 85% (AP). The October 29 morning decline cannot be assigned to either release alone: September PCE and Q3 GDP arrived at the same time (8:30 a.m. ET). Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket priced a 25bp hike at 70–73% when checked October 31.
September dot plot2026 year-end projections: 4 participants at 4.375%, 12 at 4.125%, and 2 at 3.875% (18 total) · Sixteen projected 4.125% or higher.
U.S.–Korea rate gapUpper bound of the Fed's target range minus the BoK base rate · Start of year–July 15: 3.75 − 2.50 = 1.25pp; July 16–Aug. 26: 1.00pp; Aug. 27–Sept. 15: 0.75pp; Sept. 16 onward: 1.00pp · Measuring from the U.S. lower bound would make each figure 0.25pp smaller.
Inflation figuresHeadline CPI: unadjusted year-over-year change · PCE: year-over-year change as published by the BEA.
Oil pricesDecember futures settlements (DTN and Reuters) · On Oct. 30, WTI settled at $104.12 (+2.08%) and December Brent at $117.64 (its final settlement before expiry) · From the following week, the Brent benchmark contract shifts to January ($113.43 on Oct. 30, roughly $4 below the December contract) · For October, WTI gained about 15.2% and Brent about 13.6% (Reuters) · The EIA forecast was published October 6 and does not reflect the subsequent rise in oil.
Glossary · Key Terms
Basis point (bp)
0.01 percentage point; 25bp equals 0.25 percentage point.
Hawkish vs. dovish
Hawks emphasize containing inflation and favor tighter policy; doves place more weight on economic weakness and are more cautious about rate hikes.
FOMC
Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed body that sets the target range for the federal funds rate. It normally meets eight times a year.
Dot plot
A chart of FOMC participants' projections of the appropriate policy rate at year-end. Published with the Fed's economic projections in March, June, September and December.
Forward guidance
A central bank's communication about its expected future policy-rate path.
Headline vs. core inflation
Headline includes the full consumer basket; core excludes the more volatile food and energy components.
PCE price index
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which the Fed uses to define its 2% inflation objective.
FedWatch
CME Group's estimate of probabilities for rate decisions at each Fed meeting, inferred from federal funds futures prices.
U.S.–Korea policy-rate differential
The upper bound of the U.S. federal funds target range minus the Bank of Korea base rate. Korean reports sometimes call a higher U.S. rate an “inverted” differential; this is not an inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Measures quarterly changes in employer spending on wages and benefits. It adjusts for shifts in the mix of jobs and industries, making it useful for assessing wage pressures.
PMI
Purchasing Managers' Index, a survey-based measure of business activity. Readings above 50 indicate expansion; below 50 indicate contraction.
Annualized rate
A quarterly change expressed as the yearly rate that would result if the same pace persisted for four quarters. It is not the same as year-over-year growth.
FOMC voting rights
Twelve people vote on FOMC policy: the seven Fed governors and the New York Fed president vote every year, while four of the other eleven regional Fed presidents rotate annually.
Correlation coefficient
A measure of how closely two variables move together. Values near +1 indicate movement in the same direction; values near −1 indicate opposite directions.
Sources · Dates · References

Information cutoff: October 31, 2026, 21:00 Korea Standard Time (KST)

  1. Federal Reserve, “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” · Oct. 28, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET · “approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote” · “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” · “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” · Dissenters: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred a 25bp increase · federalreserve.gov
  2. Reuters (reprinted by Business Recorder), “Gold slips as higher oil, US inflation data bolster Fed hike bets” · Oct. 30, 2026, 10:42 a.m. Pakistan time (2:42 p.m. KST) · “Traders are pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.” · brecorder.com
  3. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Consumer Price Index – September 2026” · Oct. 14, 2026 · Headline CPI +3.7% YoY (August: 3.4%); core +2.6% YoY (August: 2.4%); core +0.3% MoM · Energy +20.4% YoY; gasoline +34.2% · bls.gov
  4. Reuters (reprinted by The Korea Times), “Oil jumps 2%, settles at 6-month highs on fears of escalation in Iran” · Oct. 30, 2026 · WTI “settled $2.12, or 2.08 percent, higher at $104.12” · December Brent (expiring Oct. 30) $117.64 (+$2.76); January Brent $113.43 (+$2.63) · October gains: Brent approximately 13.6%, WTI approximately 15.2% · UKMTO: explosives attached to a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by a small boat; the first successful limpet-mine attack since the war began in February · Concerns over renewed escalation following the midterms · koreatimes.co.kr
  5. Snowshagal Investment Insight No. 14, “U.S. 10-Year Yields May Peak Near the Final Fed Hike” · Oct. 21, 2026 · The key question for the October FOMC was the extent and duration of remaining tightening, not whether rates would be held.
  6. Federal Reserve, “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” · Sept. 16, 2026 · Unanimous 12–0 vote to raise rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% · “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” · “Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” · federalreserve.gov
  7. Reuters (reprinted by Yahoo Finance), “Fed holds rates steady…” · Oct. 28, 2026 · Governor Cook “cast her first dissent on a central bank policy decision” and preferred a 25bp hike · “with another increase in borrowing costs likely by March” · “Financial markets are still pricing in a couple of additional rate hikes in the coming months” · finance.yahoo.com
  8. Associated Press, “Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged despite elevated inflation” (reprinted by KDKA) · Oct. 28, 2026 · Chair Warsh: “Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks,” and “And our job is to ensure that relative price changes in some sectors do not broaden out across the economy.” · “This is Cook's first dissent since she was appointed to the board by President Joe Biden in 2022.” · The dissent suggested broad support for further rate increases · FedWatch put the hike probability at approximately 85% · audacy.com
  9. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement · June 15, 2022 · Lisa D. Cook included among those voting in favor of a 75bp hike · federalreserve.gov
  10. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement · July 29, 2026 · 9–3 vote; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferred a 25bp hike · federalreserve.gov
  11. DS Investment & Securities, Seo Dong-hwa, “October FOMC Review” (Econ Comment) · Oct. 29, 2026 · Cook's dissent added a Fed governor to the pro-hike minority previously limited to regional Fed presidents in July · Hawkish statement, more dovish press conference · 2Y yield −3bp; longer yields +6–7bp; 10Y above 5% · Markets priced both a December hike and a subsequent pause · Forecast: 25bp hike in December to 4.00–4.25%, then a hold through H1 2027 · Less forward guidance and fewer rate-setting opportunities could increase short-end volatility on data-release days · A December Fed hike could widen the U.S.–Korea rate gap to 1.25pp · Expectations for hikes beyond December embedded in 2Y yields eased after the press conference
  12. Federal Reserve, “Summary of Economic Projections” · Sept. 16, 2026 · Median federal funds rate: 4.1% (4.125%) for 2026; 4.1% for 2027; 3.9% for 2028; 3.2% longer run · Distribution of 2026 year-end dots: four at 4.375%, twelve at 4.125%, two at 3.875% · federalreserve.gov
  13. iM Securities, Park Sang-hyun, “An Uneventful October FOMC” (Economy Brief) · Oct. 29, 2026 · Stronger assessment of activity and revised inflation language seen as clear signals of a December hike · Whether the hiking cycle continues afterward hinges on oil prices stabilizing after a potential second Operation Epic Fury · Hyperscaler capex expected to exert greater influence on financial markets, including Treasury yields · Warsh regarded financial conditions as tighter than before but did not explicitly label them restrictive
  14. Eugene Investment & Securities, Heo Jae-hwan, “October FOMC: A Pause” (Equity Strategy) · Oct. 29, 2026 · Overall tone not especially hawkish · December hike probability approaching 80%
  15. U.S. Treasury, “Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates,” October 2026 · Oct. 27: 2Y 4.70%, 5Y 4.82%, 10Y 4.99%, 30Y 5.30% · Oct. 28: 2Y 4.67%, 5Y 4.85%, 10Y 5.05%, 30Y 5.37% · home.treasury.gov
  16. U.S. Treasury, “Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates,” September 2026 · Sept. 15: 2Y 4.67%, 5Y 4.83%, 10Y 5.00%, 30Y 5.36% · Sept. 16: 2Y 4.74%, 5Y 4.86%, 10Y 5.01%, 30Y 5.35% · home.treasury.gov
  17. The National News Desk (Charlotte Hazard), “Fed to cut back on rate-setting meetings, Fed chair Warsh says” · Oct. 28, 2026 · "We have started to see some changes in financial and credit conditions; they have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect," "Market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations." · "On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive" · "one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated" · kfoxtv.com
  18. Economic Greenfield, “Kevin Warsh's October 28, 2026 Press Conference: Notable Aspects” · Oct. 29, 2026 · Excerpts from preliminary press-conference transcript: “The period right in front of us is information rich.” · “That correlation has been quite strong, until very recently where you've seen oil prices continue to move up… Interest rates have rolled over to the downside.” · “There have been a stable correlation between oil prices as they've moved up this year, generally, and interest rates.” · “inflation compensation is going in the right way” · economicgreenfield.com
  19. Tampa Free Press (reprinted by AOL), “Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Pushes Back On Interest Rate Forecasts, Rejects Forward Guidance” · Oct. 28, 2026 · “I don't believe in forward guidance absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis,” and “I also don't believe in prejudging meetings.” · aol.com
  20. Fox Business, “September 2026 PCE inflation” · Oct. 29, 2026, 8:33 a.m. ET · September PCE +3.6% YoY (August: 3.4%) and core +3.1% (August: 3.0%), both in line with forecasts · FedWatch December hike probability “down slightly from 84.2% yesterday but higher than the 73.3% probability a week ago” (79.6%) · foxbusiness.com
  21. Reuters, Ann Saphir (reprinted by GV Wire), “Fed needs at least two more rate hikes, Logan says” · Oct. 30, 2026 · Dallas Fed President Logan (an October voting member): “the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases” · “After that, it would make sense in my view to pause and examine economic and financial developments” · gvwire.com
  22. Reuters (reprinted by Investing.com), “Fed's Musalem says a rate hike is needed soon” · Oct. 30, 2026 · Shadow Open Market Committee speech: “Additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon,” “Incremental adjustments made earlier are usually less disruptive than larger and abrupt actions taken later,” and “Financial conditions tightened recently.” · investing.com
  23. Kiwoom Securities, Kim Yu-mi, “October FOMC: Hawkish Bias Remains, but the Pace of Tightening Is Flexible” (Macro Follow-up) · Oct. 29, 2026 · High rates are already tightening credit conditions through more selective financing of AI-related investment, limiting the scope for aggressive consecutive hikes · Forecasts another hike in December · Attributes declining short Treasury yields and rising longer yields partly to a higher term premium
  24. DTN, “WTI back above $100…” · Oct. 28, 2026 · December WTI $102.78 (+2.88%); Brent $115.32 (+1.26%) · Houthi rebels claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura facility; U.S. crude inventories fell · Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 282.6 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982 · dtnpf.com
  25. U.S. Treasury, “Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates,” October 2026 (TextView) · Oct. 28: 2Y 4.67%, 10Y 5.05% · Oct. 29: 2Y 4.61%, 10Y 4.98% · Oct. 30: 2Y 4.56%, 10Y 4.94%, 30Y 5.31% · Sept. 30: 2Y 4.88%, 10Y 5.29% (September 2026 XML) · home.treasury.gov
  26. Associated Press, Stan Choe (reprinted by WPTF), U.S. stock-market close, Oct. 30 · S&P 500: 7,580.07 (−140.32); Nasdaq: 25,437.00 (−747.73) · 10Y yield 4.93% (4.98% the previous day, above 5.30% early in the month) · “investors were buying U.S. government bonds in search of something safer to own” · wptf.com
  27. Hanwha Investment & Securities, Kim Seong-su and Han Si-hwa, “Fixed Income Outlook 2027: An Uneasy Lull” · Oct. 26, 2026 · Fed: 25bp December hike to a 4.25% ceiling, followed by a hold through end-2027 (upside risk: 4.50%) · BoK: 3.25% in November 2026, 3.50% in February 2027, then hold
  28. Kyobo Securities, Baek Yun-min, “2027 Bond-Market Outlook: A Short Climb, a Long Plateau” · Oct. 26, 2026 · Fed: 4.25% ceiling in Q4 2026, then higher for longer rather than further hikes · BoK: 25bp hikes in November and Q1 2027, reaching 3.50%
  29. Hana Securities, Park Jun-woo, “Hana Monthly Fixed Income [November]: Falling Stocks, the Last Hike, and Lower Yields” · Oct. 27, 2026 · Correlation between U.S. 10Y yields and WTI: about +0.6 after the Iran crisis, shifting to about −0.3 after the Sept. 16 FOMC; drivers of yields shifting from oil toward AI and risk assets · U.S. hikes in December and March to 4.50%; Korean hikes in November and February to 3.50%
  30. Daishin Securities, Gong Dong-rak, “Daishin 2027 Bond Outlook: High Rates, Higher Pain” · Oct. 26, 2026 · Fed target-range upper bound: 4.25% at end-Q4 2026, 4.50% at end-Q1 2027 · Korea terminal base rate: 3.50%, reached in Q1 2027
  31. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), “Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026” · Oct. 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET · Headline PCE inflation: +0.5% MoM, +3.6% YoY (August: 3.4%); core: +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY (August: 3.0%) · bea.gov
  32. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Employment Cost Index – September 2026” · Oct. 30, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET · Total compensation +0.8% (seasonally adjusted, three months) · “Wages and salaries increased 0.7 percent, and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from June 2026” · Twelve-month compensation +3.4%, wages and salaries +3.1% · Q2 compensation +0.9%, wages +0.9% · bls.gov
  33. Reuters (reprinted by Investing.com), “Fed's Barkin says US central bank's direction 'straightforward,' the question is pace, SiriusXM reports” · Oct. 30, 2026 · “I think the direction of travel is pretty straightforward” · “The question, though, is pace.” · “There are a lot of cost pressures that are hitting American businesses” (diesel, computer chips, wages for skilled workers) · Regional businesses indicate willingness to pass on costs · Not a voting member this year; voting member next year · investing.com
  34. investingLive, “US and Israel plan specific renewed Iran strikes after US midterms, New York Times reports” · Oct. 22, 2026, 00:03 GMT · Summary of New York Times reporting: a short but intense operation; some planners discussing a three-day campaign; U.S. deployments expected to be complete by early November; Trump had pledged no strikes before the election, potentially delaying action until afterward · “It is far from certain that Trump will approve new strikes” · investinglive.com
  35. The Epoch Times, “Trump says US may do another little Epic Fury targeting Iran” · Oct. 23, 2026 campaign remarks: “We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree” · Earlier remarks ruled out further strikes before the midterms · theepochtimes.com
  36. The American Presidency Project, “Pool Reports, October 23, 2026” · Pool report from Trump's rally at Alico Arena, Fort Myers (2:48–4:20 p.m.): while discussing Iran, he raised the possibility of “another Epic Fury” · presidency.ucsb.edu
  37. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), “U.S. Forces Launch Operation Epic Fury” · Feb. 28, 2026 · Operation launched on presidential orders against Iranian security infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, air-defense systems, missile sites and drone launch facilities · centcom.mil
  38. Associated Press (reprinted by OPB), “US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after elections, AP sources say” · Oct. 29, 2026, 00:42 · U.S. officials advised Middle Eastern countries and regional allies “to be prepared for potential renewed military action against Iran after next week's midterm elections” · Renewed operations could last several days · opb.org
  39. OilPrice.com, Irina Slav (citing Reuters), “Oil Prices Fall as Vance Moves to Restart Iran Peace Talks” · Oct. 29, 2026, 1:05 a.m. U.S. Central Time · Vice President Vance contacted the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council in an effort to restart peace negotiations · “Qatari mediators this week presented a new draft peace deal to the Iranian side” · Iran remained open to diplomacy but said “its conditions must be met” · Brent $114.14, WTI $101.45 at publication · oilprice.com
  40. Reuters, Georgina McCartney (reprinted by Euronext), “Oil prices settle lower as diplomacy hopes offset some Mideast supply concerns” · Oct. 29, 2026 · Brent “settled down 44 cents, or 0.38%, to $114.88”; WTI “settled down 78 cents, or 0.76%, at $102” · Both benchmarks fell more than $2 intraday before recovering some losses · A senior Iranian official dismissed the Qatari draft as “unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer” · The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei · Fears of renewed U.S. attacks on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms limited the decline · live.euronext.com
  41. Al Jazeera, “Qatari officials in Iran in bid to revive ceasefire deal with US” · Oct. 30, 2026 · Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran that morning (IRNA), coordinating with Washington · On Vance's letter, “there was no official reaction from Tehran” · Sources suggested talks could take place in Doha or Istanbul within a week · aljazeera.com
  42. Axios, “Qataris hold marathon talks in Tehran in bid for U.S.-Iran deal before midterms” · Oct. 31, 2026 · Qatari mediators met in Tehran for over 12 hours on Friday, October 30; a diplomatic source said, “There has been positive progress” · Discussions were set to continue in Doha on October 31 · U.S. official: nuclear concessions required before negotiations resume; Iran wants the naval blockade lifted, frozen assets returned and oil sales permitted first · SBS and Outlook India reported similar details · axios.com · news.sbs.co.kr
  43. Bloomberg (reprinted by Rigzone), “Oil Creeps Higher Amid Uncertainty Over USA Strategy in Iran” · Oct. 30, 2026 · President Trump said peace talks were underway and “we have time, frankly” · WTI settled at $104.12; December Brent at $117.64 · rigzone.com
  44. China Daily, “China's manufacturing PMI falls to 49.3 in October” · Oct. 31, 2026 (National Bureau of Statistics of China release) · Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 (September: 50.1); new orders: 49.4 (50.5); nonmanufacturing: 49.7 (50.2); composite: 49.7 (50.7) · NBS official Huo Lihui cited demand brought forward ahead of the National Day holiday and volatility in external conditions · usa.chinadaily.com.cn
  45. ANI, “US delegation expected in Doha for direct Iran talks after reported breakthrough: Reports” · Oct. 31, 2026, 1:35 p.m. India time · The Times of Israel, citing the Qatar-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, reported preliminary understandings on nuclear matters, Strait of Hormuz navigation and financial incentives, with a U.S. delegation potentially joining direct talks in Doha · Neither the U.S. nor Iranian government has confirmed this · Trump: “There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking.” · aninews.in
  46. iM Securities, Park Sang-hyun, “Could Operation Epic Fury Mark Peak Bad News?” (Economy Brief) · Oct. 26, 2026 · Renewed operations could further damage Gulf energy infrastructure and prolong the Hormuz blockade, potentially pushing WTI above $112.95, its high since the Iran war began (April 7) · Alternatively, a second operation used to declare victory and exit could produce a brief spike followed by rapid stabilization, easing inflation, high-rate and Fed-hike concerns together
  47. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Short-Term Energy Outlook · Global oil markets” · Oct. 6, 2026 · Brent forecast to average $105 in Q4 2026 and $84 in 2027 · eia.gov
  48. Bank of Korea, “Monetary Policy Decision” · Aug. 27, 2026 · Base rate raised from 2.75% to 3.00% · bok.or.kr
  49. Metro Newspaper, Kim Ju-hyeong · July 28, 2026 · South Korean base rate 2.75% (raised July 16), U.S. target range 3.50–3.75%, differential of 1.00pp measured from the U.S. upper bound · A Fed hike would widen the spread to 1.25pp · metroseoul.co.kr
  50. Gyeongbuk Maeil · Sept. 17, 2026 · U.S.–Korea rate differential, measured from the Fed's upper bound, widened from 0.75pp to 1.00pp · kbmaeil.com
  51. Hyundai Motor Securities, Choi Je-min, “Korea's Q3 GDP: 2026 Growth Forecast Raised to 3.8%, but Growth Remains Uneven” · Oct. 28, 2026 · Maintains forecast for BoK hikes of 25bp each in November and Q1 2027, reaching a 3.50% peak
  52. Eugene Investment & Securities, Kim Ji-na, “Fixed Income Weekly: A Brief Pause for Central Banks” · Oct. 26, 2026 · BoK expected to hike in November and Q1 2027, reaching 3.50%; further increases depend on next year's economy and semiconductor cycle
  53. Digital Daily · Oct. 30, 2026, 4:03 p.m. KST · USD/KRW “closed at 1,334.3, down 2.5 won from the previous trading day” · KOSPI 5,730.74 (−3.48%) · ddaily.co.kr
  54. Snowshagal Investment Insight No. 16, “The Won Has Strengthened—but Still Looks Weak on a Real Effective Basis” · Oct. 24, 2026 · Won appreciation after the September FOMC and the current-account surplus
  55. Korea Financial News · Bank of Korea October monetary policy decision · Oct. 22, 2026 · Base rate held at 3.00% unanimously by all seven members; U.S.–Korea rate differential remained 1.00pp based on the U.S. upper bound · Next meeting November 26 · fntimes.com
  56. Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2026 release calendar · October employment report: Nov. 6, 8:30 a.m. ET · October CPI: Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET · bls.gov
  57. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), “Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate)” · Oct. 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET · Real GDP growth +3.4% annualized (Q2: 2.2%) · PCE price index +2.1% annualized (Q2: 5.0%), core +2.5% (Q2: 3.3%) · bea.gov
  58. Federal Reserve, “Meeting calendars and information,” updated Oct. 28, 2026 · 2026 meetings: Jan. 27–28, Mar. 17–18, Apr. 28–29, Jun. 16–17, Jul. 28–29, Sept. 15–16, Oct. 27–28, Dec. 8–9 · 2027: Jan. 26–27, Mar. 16–17*, Apr. 27–28, Jun. 8–9*, Jul. 27–28, Sept. 14–15*, Oct. 26–27, Dec. 7–8* (*with economic projections) · “Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it.” · federalreserve.gov
  59. Reuters, Michael S. Derby (reprinted by Yahoo Finance), “Fed's Warsh announces changes to future…” · Oct. 28, 2026 · “We believe eight meetings per year is the right number… but in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated” · “I expect that in 2028 we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy and six… for setting policy.” · Rationale: “Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular and information-rich intervals… we reserve time and space… for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions” · No specific 2027 meeting named; October was suggested by Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights · finance.yahoo.com
  60. American Banker (Kyle Campbell), “Fed will drop one interest rate vote next year, two in 2028” · Oct. 28, 2026 · "During the strategy meeting, which Warsh said will take place next fall" · americanbanker.com
  61. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement · Sunday, March 15, 2020 · Cut the federal funds target range to 0–0.25% outside the regular meeting schedule · federalreserve.gov
  62. investingLive, “Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week” · Oct. 28, 2026, 08:46 GMT · Draft envisaged a seven-day timetable; Iranian response expected “by the end of the week” · investinglive.com
  63. Reuters (reprinted by Yahoo Finance), “OPEC+ expected to maintain December oil output…” · Oct. 27, 2026 · Three sources said, “OPEC+ producers are expected to leave their December oil production targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting,” pending a final decision · Virtual meeting of seven producers: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman · finance.yahoo.com
  64. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Release Schedule: Producer Price Index” · October 2026 PPI: Nov. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET · November 2026 PPI: Dec. 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET · bls.gov
  65. Bureau of Economic Analysis, release calendar · Nov. 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET: second estimate of Q3 GDP and October personal income and outlays · bea.gov
  66. Federal Reserve, November 2026 calendar · Nov. 18 at 2:00 p.m. ET: “FOMC Minutes / Meeting of October 27-28” · federalreserve.gov