BIOTECH ₩1TN DEAL? ONLY 6% UPFRONT

THE FIVE-MINUTE BRIEF

SUMMARY

Most of a licensing deal's headline value is conditional. Across global deals announced in January–September 2026, upfront payments represented just 6% of total announced value (J.P. Morgan).
Even multi-trillion-won Korean deals have a much smaller committed payment. ABL Bio's ₩4.1104tn agreement with GSK carried an upfront payment of just ₩73.9bn.
Nine selected Korean deals in which rights reverted ended with a median retained amount of 6.9% of headline value. When rights revert, the licensor generally keeps the upfront payment and any milestones already earned.
Adjust a hypothetical deal for success probabilities and time, and its present value falls to about 7% of the headline amount. Under Eugene's base-case Phase 1 assumptions, the ₩1.12tn hypothetical agreement's upfront and milestones have a combined present value of ₩80.7bn.
Start with five items in the disclosure. Upfront payment, near-term milestones, termination terms, whether it is a definitive license, and what the partner has disclosed.

On October 29, Hanmi Pharmaceutical and GC Biopharma agreed to license their jointly developed Fabry disease candidate to U.S.-based BioMarin. Together, their disclosures put the transaction at up to $475m (approximately ₩634.8bn), including a $70m upfront payment^{1, 2}.

The upfront portion—14.7%—was more than twice the 6% global aggregate. Yet Hana Securities said the market reaction was hardly enthusiastic. Its interpretation: the proceeds must be split between two companies, and despite substantial potential future cash flows, investors appear to favor more certain revenue from commercial products³.

Two questions arise whenever a biotechnology company announces a multitrillion-won licensing deal. Will all that money ever reach the company? And if development stops halfway through, how much does the company actually keep? Breaking the contract into its components helps answer both.

ARTICLE 1Anatomy of the deal

Break down the headline figure:
only one component is committed upfront

In the illustrative deal, 3.75% is committed at signing. Another 62.5% becomes payable only if the drug reaches commercial sales targets.

Inside a hypothetical ₩1.12tn licensing agreement

Illustrative Eugene Investment & Securities model, not an actual company's deal · Amounts in KRW 100m unless otherwise stated · Assumed USD/KRW rate: ₩1,400

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities⁴

Actual company disclosures likewise add upfront and milestone payments to arrive at the headline value, generally excluding royalties. In the three deals below, milestones account for 85–99% of the announced total.

What three actual licensing disclosures show

Agreement (signed)	Total value	Upfront	Share
Hanmi + GC Biopharma → BioMarin (Oct. 2026)Fabry disease candidate · Phase 1/2 trials	$475mCombined total for both licensors	$70m	14.7%
ABL Bio → GSK (Apr. 2025)Blood–brain barrier shuttle platform · multiple targets	₩4.1104tn	₩73.9bn	1.8%
Hanmi → MSD (Aug. 2020)MASH candidate efinopegdutide	$870m	$10m	1.1%

Sources: Company disclosures filed on DART^{1, 2, 5, 6} · Upfront share = upfront payment ÷ headline total (excluding royalties)

The contract has three payment streams

Upfront payment The payment amount is committed when the agreement is signed, although the cash receipt date varies. The BioMarin and MSD disclosures explicitly state that these payments are nonrefundable^{1, 6}.
Milestones Payments become due as specified development, approval or sales thresholds are met. BioMarin's milestone-by-milestone schedule was withheld from public disclosure¹.
Royalties A percentage of sales after commercial launch, normally excluded from headline deal value. The BioMarin disclosure did not give a rate; the Hanmi–MSD filing described only a “double-digit percentage”^{1, 6}.

ARTICLE 2Cash actually received

Nine deals with reverted rights:
median cash retained was 6.9%

These nine selected Korean cases show what the licensor had collected by the time an agreement ended. Rank retained cash as a share of original headline value: the middle observation is 6.9%.

Eight of nine ended with less than 12% of headline value received

Nonrefundable cash received ÷ original announced deal value, excluding royalties · Hanmi–Sanofi uses upfront terms from the revised 2016 agreement

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities, drawing on KHIDI (Dec. 2025) and Daily Pharm⁷

What to watch

One outlier Medytox's 27.6% involved a Phase 3-stage asset and included $35m in milestone payments on top of the upfront fee⁷.
Only the upfront was paid Three of the nine agreements—Hanmi–Janssen, Dong-A ST–AbbVie and JW Pharmaceutical–LEO Pharma—generated no milestone receipts beyond the upfront⁷.
Roughly four years, on average, until rights reverted That was the average time between signing and rights returning to the original licensor⁷.

This is a sample consisting solely of deals in which rights were returned. Successful and ongoing licenses are excluded. The 6.9% figure is therefore not a recovery rate for biotech licensing overall.

Rights returned—and licensed out again

Reverted rights can be relicensed. One example is Hanmi's efinopegdutide, highlighted in the chart. Janssen licensed it in 2015, returned the rights in 2019, and by then Hanmi had received 11.5% of the original deal value⁷. Hanmi then licensed it to MSD in 2020 under an agreement worth up to $870m, with $10m upfront^{6, 8}.

MSD plans to present Phase 2b data on the drug at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) meeting in November^{3, 9, 10}. Kyobo Securities expects the data to help resolve uncertainty around whether the program can move into Phase 3⁹.

Even an ongoing deal carries similar risks. Consider ABL Bio's ABL301, a Parkinson's candidate licensed to Sanofi in 2022^{11, 12}.

2022.01
Agreement signed$1.06bn headline value; $75m upfront
2024.10
Cumulative receipts: $125mAbout 12% of headline value
2026.01
“Deprioritized” in Sanofi's results materialsABL Bio shares fell 19.5% the following day
2026.09
Controversy over “development discontinued” in Sanofi's Form 20-FSanofi confirmed its R&D portfolio listed the program as discontinued · ABL Bio shares fell 11.7% from Sept. 16 to 22

ABL Bio argues that the designation does not mean development actually stopped or the license was terminated. Sanofi said the companies continue exploring other opportunities to collaborate.

ARTICLE 3Comparisons

Small upfront shares are not unique to Korea,
but the dollar amounts differ sharply

The percentage depends on deal structure. Agreements bundling multiple targets or options can carry much larger headline totals—and correspondingly smaller upfront shares.

Excluding the BioMarin deal,
upfront shares are single-digit in both Korea and China

Upfront ÷ announced deal value (excluding royalties) · BioMarin combines two company filings · Chinese co-development transactions compiled by Yuanta Securities · Faded bars show upper bounds based on disclosed terms

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities, citing company filings, Daily Pharm and KIMCo data¹³; Yuanta Securities, citing company announcements¹⁴; disclosed InnoCare and Hansoh terms^{15, 16}; BioMarin ratio calculated from DART filings^{1, 2}; benchmarks from J.P. Morgan, as cited by Eugene¹⁷ and Goodwin¹⁸

Korea's upfront share ranges from 2% to 6.5%, depending on the sample

Sample	Upfront share
Eight Korean deals signed in H1 2026, combinedAs reported from KIMCo data	Approx. 2%
Six 2026 deals with disclosed upfront fees, combinedEugene sample · excluding BioMarin	4.0%
Same six, excluding AriBio's $4.7bn option deal	6.5%
Reference: global announced dealsJ.P. Morgan · January–September 2026	6.0%

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities^{13, 17}

Why the ratios vary

Deal structure matters Two clinical-stage Hanmi licensing deals (Genentech and Lilly) had upfront shares of about 6–8%; most platform agreements in the sample were at 1.6–3.5%. Eugene argues that platform and preclinical deals should be compared with an early-stage benchmark of 3.7% from U.S. law firm Goodwin^{13, 18}.
Average upfront checks differ by more than threefold The average upfront payment in Chinese biotech–Big Pharma deals was $170m, versus less than $50m for Korean deals (Evaluate data, cited by Eugene)¹³.

Chinese co-development agreements can carry headline values of $3.35bn to $18.5bn, yet their upfront shares range from below 2.6% to 7.4%. Yuanta notes that agreements increasingly bundle multiple programs into a single collaboration¹⁴. ABL Bio's GSK agreement (1.8%) is likewise a platform deal covering technology that can be applied to multiple candidates¹³.

Competition is intensifying. Of Big Pharma in-licensing deals with upfront payments of at least $50m, China-origin assets represented 51% of deal count in January–September 2026 (39% in 2025), and 65% of upfront dollars (36% in 2025)^{14, 17}. Eugene argues that Korean deal terms should be assessed against that competitive backdrop¹⁷.

ARTICLE 4Probability and time

Account for risk and timing,
and the hypothetical deal is worth only 7% today

The less likely a payment is—and the further away it is—the less it is worth today.

The upfront fee retains its full value;
the other components shrink to 1–6% of face value

Eugene illustrative contract (not an actual deal; assumed entry into Phase 1) · 12% discount rate · 7.8% probability of eventual approval and launch from Phase 1 · Nominal value assumes every condition is met

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities¹⁹

Why does the value fall so sharply?

Probability of success The model assumes a 7.8% chance that a biologic entering Phase 1 will reach the market. The toughest transition is from Phase 2 to Phase 3, with an assumed success rate of 30%¹⁹.
Time to payment Sales milestones are assumed to arrive in 2037–38 and royalties in 2035–46. Discounting those future cash flows at 12% annually reduces their present value¹⁹.
Value of the entire drug For the hypothetical drug, the value assuming certain success is $852m, but only $15.3m after factoring in success probabilities—roughly one-fifty-fifth as much¹⁹. This is the value of the entire drug after development costs, not the same measure as the payments accruing to the licensor.

Compare like with like

Scope	Nominal amount	Present value	Share
Upfront + milestonesSame scope as disclosed headline value	₩1.12tn	₩80.7bn	7.2%
Including royalties	₩2.9274tn	₩106.6bn	3.6%

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities¹⁹ · Eugene's “roughly 10%” compares ₩106.6bn *including* royalty value with the ₩1.12tn disclosed total *excluding* royalties—a 9.5% ratio using different bases

The next development step can transform value

Clear Phase 2 and bring launch forward: value rises ninefold;
delay by two years: value falls to three-quarters

Remaining deal value, excluding the ₩42bn upfront · Same valuation date, changing only clinical stage / timing · Illustrative agreement

Source: Eugene Investment & Securities¹⁹

The biggest drivers of a licensing deal's value are whether the program reaches its next clinical milestone and *when*. A delay can shorten the period of exclusive sales because the patent expiry date does not move with the clinical timetable¹⁹.

These are assumptions, not fixed outcomes. Changing the Phase 2-to-3 transition probability to 20% or 40% moves value by ₩18.2bn in either direction; raising the discount rate to 15% reduces it by ₩15.2bn, while cutting it to 10% adds ₩13.6bn. Eugene's sensitivity range around its ₩106.6bn royalty-inclusive base case is ₩88.5bn–₩124.8bn¹⁹.

ARTICLE 5Five-point disclosure check

Five fields in the filing,
tell you what is certain—and what is not

Even filings with the same label, “Licensing Agreement Signed,” leave different questions unanswered. The following five-point checklist is filled out using the BioMarin deal.

BIOTECH LICENSING DISCLOSURE CHECKLISTExample · Hanmi + GC Biopharma → BioMarin (Oct. 29, 2026)

①

Upfront payment

Check both the amount and its share of headline value. Use the 6% global aggregate and 3.7% early-stage figure as reference points, but compare primarily with deals at a similar stage.

BioMarin agreementABOVE BENCHMARK$70m combined, or 14.7% of total value. Each company receives $35m (approximately ₩46.8bn)^{1, 2}

②

Near-term milestones

Are there payments tied to near-term triggers such as the first Phase 1 dose or completion of toxicology studies?

BioMarin agreementNOT DISCLOSEDThe amount and timing of individual milestones within the $405m total were not disclosed^{1, 2}

③

Termination and rights reversion

When can the counterparty terminate? Must any payments already received be refunded?

BioMarin agreementTRIGGERS UNDISCLOSEDThe agreement can terminate under specified circumstances. Upfront and milestone payments already received are nonrefundable, and neither Korean licensor owes a termination penalty^{1, 2}

④

Definitive license?

A technology evaluation agreement or an option agreement is not equivalent to a definitive licensing contract.

BioMarin agreementSIGNED LICENSEExclusive worldwide rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize, excluding South Korea. The two Korean companies retain South Korean rights^{2, 20}

⑤

Counterparty disclosure

Do the partner's press release, U.S. SEC filings and clinical-trial registry entries tell the same story?

BioMarin agreementCONSISTENTBioMarin also reported $70m upfront and up to $405m in development and commercial milestones. In its November 2 third-quarter earnings release, BioMarin introduced the newly acquired candidate as BMN 450^{20, 21}

Each field has a real-world lesson

Near-term milestones ABL Bio separately disclosed ₩74.1bn in near-term milestones under the GSK agreement, in addition to the upfront fee. Its amended filing confirmed receipt of that upfront payment on May 12, 2025⁵.
Evaluation agreements After the Korean market closed on October 7, Peptron posted a website notice that its evaluation agreement with Eli Lilly had ended, without announcing a follow-on deal. Its shares fell 29.9% the next day (according to Eugene)²².
What the partner says The earlier ABL301 “deprioritized” and “development discontinued” classifications first appeared in Sanofi's materials, not in Korean regulatory disclosures¹¹.

On July 30, South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) proposed changes requiring biotech licensing disclosures to distinguish upfront payments, development milestones, regulatory / sales milestones and royalties^{23, 24}. The Korea Exchange was still reviewing the detailed rules, and no implementation date had been set as of October 26^{11, 23}. Eugene warns that counterparty pipeline priorities and the expiry of evaluation agreements may still go unreported, even under the new system¹¹.

ADDITIONAL CLAUSESCaveats and upcoming checks

Three factors that could change—or delay—the conclusion

CAVEAT 01 · Counterargument

A small upfront payment does not automatically mean a bad deal

Upfront fees tend to be smaller at earlier stages. For Big Pharma in-licensing deals announced in the first nine months of 2026, median upfront payments rose with development stage: $59m for platforms / discovery, $75m preclinical and $185m Phase 1 (J.P. Morgan)¹⁷.

Compare deals at similar stages before drawing conclusions.

CAVEAT 02 · Counterargument

Some milestone payments do materialize

Alteogen's preliminary third-quarter results, released November 3, showed ₩119.8bn in revenue and ₩78.9bn in operating profit. The company credited partner-product commercialization and new out-licensing deals. According to media reports, it has also been receiving milestones linked to MSD's Keytruda Qlex subcutaneous product^{25, 26}. The $830m in third-quarter Keytruda Qlex sales belongs to MSD, not Alteogen²⁷.

Keep the partner's product sales separate from the licensor's actual cash receipts.

CAVEAT 03 · What the data cannot tell us

The 6% is an aggregate value-weighted share

It is the sum of upfront payments divided by the sum of headline values for agreements announced in January–September 2026¹⁷. The largest transactions therefore have the greatest influence on the figure.

Use 6% as a market-wide reference, not a fixed benchmark for every individual deal; compare deals with similar structures.

None of these caveats overturns the central point: read the upfront payment and next development step before the total. Just interpret the upfront figure in the context of the program's stage, deal structure and partner performance.

What to monitor next

11.05~09
AASLD · The Liver Meeting, DenverMSD is scheduled to present Phase 2b data on efinopegdutide, licensed from Hanmi. Late-breaking abstracts are due for release on November 5 (U.S. time), equivalent to midnight November 6 in Korea^{3, 10}.
TBD
Korea Exchange's final disclosure revisionsWatch for the effective date of the revised biotech licensing disclosure template. Early-October coverage expected an announcement in October or early November, but no final text had emerged as of October 26 (Eugene). Key questions: how much can still be withheld as “confidential,” and will partner development discontinuations trigger disclosure?^{11, 23}.

Where the evidence stands

KNOWNConfirmed disclosures

BioMarin: $475m combined headline value, $70m upfront (14.7%) and no obligation to refund received payments
ABL Bio–GSK: ₩73.9bn upfront on ₩4.1104tn headline value (1.8%), received in May 2025
Hanmi–MSD (2020): $10m upfront on an $870m agreement; royalties specified only as a double-digit percentage

ESTIMATEBroker estimates and calculations

Upfront payments were 6% of global announced deal value (Jan.–Sept. 2026 aggregate, J.P. Morgan, cited by Eugene)
Median receipts were 6.9% of headline value across nine selected Korean deals with reverted rights (Eugene)
Present value of Eugene's hypothetical deal: ₩80.7bn upfront + milestones (7.2% of headline value); ₩106.6bn including royalties, with a sensitivity range of ₩88.5bn–₩124.8bn

UNKNOWNStill unknown

The BioMarin agreement's milestone-by-milestone amounts, payment timing and royalty rate
Efinopegdutide Phase 2b results and whether the program will advance to Phase 3
The final Korea Exchange disclosure rules and implementation date

THE BOTTOM LINECONCLUSION

For biotech licensing, start with
the upfront payment and next milestone—not the headline total

In a multitrillion-won licensing announcement, only the upfront fee is committed at signing. The rest depends on clinical, regulatory or commercial milestones. If the agreement ends early, what survives is generally the upfront cash and any milestones already received.

That does not make every low-upfront agreement a bad one. Investors should weigh three things together:

Look at both the upfront *amount* and *percentage*, and compare each with similar-stage agreements
Treat near-term milestones as conditional even when disclosed. Check termination and refund provisions in both the company's filing and the partner's release
Track the next clinical milestone and its timing. Value the upfront as consideration already committed; for future milestones and royalties, account for the conditions, probabilities and timing of payment

This report explains how to read licensing disclosures; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Source notes below identify the relevant information dates.

Calculation notes

BioMarin agreement Added the Hanmi and GC Biopharma disclosures: $475m × ₩1,336.30/$ ≈ ₩634.7bn (sum of the two filings' won-denominated values: ₩634.8bn). Upfront share: $70m / $475m = 14.7%. Each licensor's $35m upfront ≈ ₩46.8bn.
ABL Bio–GSK ₩73.9bn / ₩4.1104tn = 1.8%.
Hanmi–MSD (2020) $10m / $870m = 1.1%.
Milestone shares across the three deals BioMarin: $405m / $475m = 85.3%. ABL Bio–GSK: (₩74.1bn + ₩3.9623tn) / ₩4.1104tn = 98.2%. Hanmi–MSD: $860m / $870m = 98.9%.
Hypothetical licensing agreement 420 / 11,200 = 3.75%; 3,780 / 11,200 = 33.75%; 7,000 / 11,200 = 62.5%. All amounts in KRW 100m.
Figure 4: percentage of nominal value retained 242 / 3,780 = 6.4%; 145 / 7,000 = 2.1%; 259 / 18,074 = 1.4%; total 1,066 / 29,274 = 3.6%. Excluding royalties: 420 + 242 + 145 = 807; 807 / 11,200 = 7.2%. Including royalty value over the royalty-excluded deal total: 1,066 / 11,200 = 9.5%. Amounts in KRW 100m.
Figure 5: scenario multiples 6,036 / 646 = 9.3×; 491 / 646 = 0.76×. The remaining 646 units (₩64.6bn) equal the risk-adjusted ₩106.6bn total less the ₩42bn upfront payment.
Nine reverted-rights deals Ordered values: 4.1, 4.2, 5.2, 5.7, 6.9, 7.6, 8.9, 11.5, 27.6. The fifth observation is the 6.9% median. The simple average, 9.1%, is pulled upward by the Medytox outlier.
ABL301 $125m / $1.06bn = 11.8%.
Chinese biotech deals Calculated as upfront / total deal value from Yuanta's table: CSPC 6.5%, Hengrui 3.9%, Innovent 6.2%, Abogen 7.4%. InnoCare's announced $100m combined upfront and near-term payments imply an upper bound of $100m / $3.35bn = 3.0%. For Hansoh, disclosed terms are $400m upfront, $110m on the first anniversary and potentially more than $15bn in milestones; total potential value thus exceeds $15.51bn, making $400m / $15.51bn = 2.58% an upper bound.
AASLD release time Late-breaking abstracts are scheduled for November 5 at 8 a.m. U.S. Mountain Standard Time. U.S. daylight saving time ended November 1, so MST is UTC−7; that is 00:00 KST on November 6.

Source discrepancies and cutoff dates

KRW conversions for BioMarin The filings use the October 29 base exchange rate of ₩1,336.30 per dollar; adding their stated KRW amounts yields ₩634.8bn. Hana Securities' page 1 figure in the ₩300bn range refers roughly to the share of one Korean company (about ₩317.4bn), while its page 8 figure of approximately ₩542.2bn implies roughly ₩1,141/$. Kyobo Securities rounds the combined amount to approximately ₩640bn.
Two Chinese transaction totals Yuanta's table lists the Roche–Hansoh agreement at $15bn, but the transaction announcement and Hana Securities (p. 5) indicate that *milestones alone* could exceed $15bn. Even counting the $110m first-anniversary payment as upfront, the upfront share remains below 3.3%. Lilly–InnoCare's announced $100m combines upfront and near-term payments.
Scope of the 3.7% benchmark Goodwin's 2025 upfront share for early-stage discovery and preclinical licensing, based on its proprietary database of more than 200 deals. The comparable 2024 figure was 1.5%. It is not a comprehensive market-wide measure.
Scope of the 6% benchmark J.P. Morgan's announced deal values from January–September 2026, using DealForma data, as cited by Eugene (p. 31).
Korean upfront-payment samples Based on Eugene's list on p. 32, drawing on company filings, Daily Pharm, Asia Economy and eToday coverage of KIMCo. Agreements without publicly disclosed upfront amounts, including Alteogen–Novartis, are excluded. The BioMarin calculations use DART disclosures. The six-deal sample with disclosed upfront fees includes the August Hanmi–Genentech deal, so it is not the same cohort as the eight first-half deals.
Nine reverted-rights agreements Nine selected Korean licensing deals compiled by Eugene (appendix p. 62). Hanmi–Sanofi uses upfront terms following the 2016 amendment; reported actual licensing proceeds were approximately ₩300bn–₩340bn. The Medytox example includes $35m in milestone receipts.
Hypothetical case The ₩1.12tn deal and hypothetical biologic EDU-101 are illustrative models created by Eugene, not actual commercial transactions. Assumptions include ₩1,400/$, a 12% discount rate and stage-transition probabilities for biologics from BIO data (2013–2022).
Whole-drug value versus the licensor's share The hypothetical drug's $15.3m (approximately ₩21.4bn) risk-adjusted value reflects the *entire drug* net of costs, development spending and taxes. The licensor's ₩106.6bn represents gross pre-tax proceeds from the deal. Eugene finds the licensee loses money under the licensor's 12% discount-rate assumptions. Using the buyer's cost of capital (8.5%), its own margins and then its internal success probabilities increases whole-drug value in steps to roughly ₩85bn, ₩123bn and ₩237bn—approaching or exceeding the value of payments owed to the licensor (p. 37).
Share-price reactions Peptron and ABL Bio price moves are close-to-close percentage changes on the Korea Exchange, as reported by Eugene.
Information cutoff Afternoon of November 4, 2026 (KST). AASLD timing comes from the meeting announcement. The Korea Exchange rulemaking status follows Eugene's report as of October 26.

Glossary

Upfront payment: A fixed fee committed when the licensing agreement is signed. Usually nonrefundable, although the cash payment date varies by agreement.
Milestone payment: Cash payable only if a specified condition is met, such as clinical progress, approval or a sales threshold. Near-term milestones refer to conditions expected sooner.
Royalty: An agreed percentage of post-launch net sales, typically excluded from the announced headline deal value.
Rights reversion: The return of development and commercialization rights to the original licensor when the licensee ends the agreement.
Risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV): The value today of future payments after adjusting for the probability of receiving them and discounting for the time until receipt.
Nominal deal value: The sum of payments assuming every condition is met. An announced licensing deal's “total value” is nominal and typically excludes royalties.
Evaluation agreement: An arrangement to assess a technology before any definitive license is granted. It may end without a commercial licensing agreement.
Platform licensing deal: A license for technology applicable to multiple drug candidates rather than just one. Bundled targets can inflate the headline value and lower the upfront share.

Sources

Hanmi Pharmaceutical · Material management matter relevant to investment decisions: “License Agreement for Fabry Disease Therapy (LA-GLA)” · Oct. 30, 2026 · Partner: BioMarin; agreement signed Oct. 29; total $237.5m (approx. ₩317.4bn); $35m upfront (approx. ₩46.8bn); $202.5m milestones (approx. ₩270.6bn; individual terms undisclosed); running royalties separate; domestic and overseas Phase 1/2 trials; FX rate ₩1,336.30/$ (Oct. 29 base rate); no contractual termination penalty or refund obligation for upfront and milestone payments · dart.fss.or.kr
GC Biopharma · Material management matter relevant to investment decisions: “License Agreement for Fabry Disease Therapy (LA-GLA)” · Oct. 30, 2026 · Same commercial terms as Hanmi (GC1134A); the two Korean companies retain rights in South Korea · dart.fss.or.kr
Hana Securities · Pharmaceutical & Biotech Biweekly, “Attention Returns to Earnings” · Nov. 3, 2026 · p. 1: market reaction to Fabry licensing and 14.7% upfront share; MSD's AASLD Phase 2b presentation from Nov. 5 · p. 5: multiprogram ADC agreement between Roche and Hansoh, $400m upfront and $110m first-anniversary payment · p. 8: $475m deal value converted to about ₩542.2bn; late-breaking Hanmi abstract expected Nov. 5 U.S. time
Eugene Investment & Securities · “Pharma/Biotech: What the Coming Disclosure Changes Will Reveal” · November 2026 · p. 30: illustrative, not real, ₩1.12tn agreement: ₩42bn upfront; ₩378bn clinical and regulatory milestones (Phase 1/2/3 entry and approval); ₩700bn sales milestones (annual sales of $500m and $1bn); separate royalties of 10% of net sales; assumed ₩1,400/$
ABL Bio · Amended material management disclosure: “License Agreement for IGF1R-Based Blood–Brain Barrier Shuttle Platform Grabody-B” · May 12, 2025 (originally Apr. 7) · GSK as licensee; ₩4.1104tn headline value (GBP 2.1401bn); ₩73.9bn upfront; ₩74.1bn near-term milestones; ₩3.9623tn other milestones; ₩1,920.67/GBP exchange rate; upfront confirmed received May 12 · dart.fss.or.kr
Hanmi Pharmaceutical · Material management disclosure: “License Agreement for a Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Therapy” · Aug. 4, 2020 · MSD as licensee; $870m headline value; $10m nonrefundable upfront, $860m milestones, double-digit percentage running royalty; worldwide rights excluding South Korea · dart.fss.or.kr
Eugene Investment & Securities · Appendix p. 62 of the same report, “What Percentage of Headline Value Was Actually Received in Reverted Licensing Deals?” · Nine selected Korean rights-reversion cases, 6.9% median receipts, approximately four years' average duration · Based on KHIDI (Dec. 2025) and Daily Pharm
Merck (MSD) · Press release, “Merck and Hanmi Pharmaceutical Enter into Licensing Agreement to Develop Efinopegdutide” · Aug. 4, 2020 · Efinopegdutide (formerly HM12525A) · merck.com
Kyobo Securities · Industry Report, “Pharmaceuticals / Biotech: Opportunities Arriving from Abroad” · Oct. 30, 2026 · MSD's third-quarter results identified an AASLD presentation on efinopegdutide (Nov. 5–9); analyst expects Phase 3 concerns to ease · Estimated royalty conversion after cumulative Keytruda Qlex sales reach a threshold · BioMarin deal estimated at around ₩640bn with $70m upfront
AASLD · “AASLD Lifts Press Embargo for The Liver Meeting® 2026 Abstracts” · Oct. 5, 2026 · Denver meeting; late-breaking abstracts to be published Nov. 5 at 8 a.m. Mountain Standard Time · aasld.org · Meeting dates: November 5–9 in Denver: aasld.org/tlm-26
Eugene Investment & Securities · Same report, pp. 19–20 and 24–27 · ABL301 (Sanofi, Jan. 2022): $1.06bn headline, $75m upfront, cumulative receipts $125m by Oct. 2024 (~12%) · Sanofi fourth-quarter materials (Jan. 29 local time) used “deprioritized”; ABL Bio −19.5% on Jan. 30 and company response · Sept. 17 controversy over “development discontinued” in Sanofi Form 20-F; Sanofi said the term referred to portfolio classification (shares −11.7% Sept. 16–22) · FSS disclosure proposal and Korea Exchange review (no final rules or implementation date as of Oct. 26, 2026); possible information gaps after reform
Alpha Economy · “ABL Bio Clarifies Controversy over ABL301 ‘Development Discontinued’ Label” · Sept. 18, 2026 · Sanofi response disclosed by ABL Bio on Sept. 17: the 2025 annual report (Form 20-F) listed “Development discontinued”; the R&D portfolio classified the program as “discontinued,” while both companies continued exploring other collaboration opportunities · ABL Bio maintained that actual development had not been terminated · alphabiz.co.kr
Eugene Investment & Securities · Same report, p. 32, “Upfront Shares in Korean Licensing Compared with Global Deals” · Disclosed upfront / headline value excluding royalties; eight Korean H1 2026 agreements combined at approximately 2% (as reported from KIMCo); six deals with disclosed fees at 4.0%, or 6.5% excluding AriBio; average China-to-Big-Pharma upfront $170m versus less than $50m in Korea (Evaluate)
Yuanta Securities · Sector Report, “Pharma/Biotech: Finding Opportunities Amid the Patent Cliff” · Nov. 3, 2026 · p. 13 table of Big Pharma–China co-development deals (headline value / upfront in $m): AstraZeneca–CSPC 18,500/1,200; BMS–Hengrui 15,200/600; Pfizer–Innovent 10,500/650; Lilly–InnoCare 3,350/100; Novartis–Abogen 7,775/575; Roche–Hansoh 15,000/400 · China-origin share of Big Pharma in-licensing transactions: 51% in 3Q26
pharmaphorum · “Lilly forges $3.35bn alliance with China's InnoCare” · Sept. 24, 2026 · Combined $100m in upfront and near-term payments, up to $3.25bn in milestones, as many as five programs · pharmaphorum.com
Goodwin · Advisory announcement on the Hansoh–Roche transaction · Oct. 22, 2026 · $400m upfront, $110m first-anniversary payment, potentially more than $15bn in milestone payments, plus tiered royalties · goodwinlaw.com
Eugene Investment & Securities · Same report, p. 31, citing J.P. Morgan's “Q3 2026 Biopharma Licensing and Venture Report” (DealForma data as of Sept. 30, 2026): upfront payments were 6% of $221.1bn in announced Jan.–Sept. deal value; median Big Pharma in-licensing upfronts ($m) were 59 for platforms / discovery, 75 preclinical, 185 Phase 1, 363 Phase 2 and 450 Phase 3 (only two and three observations for the last two stages); among Big Pharma licenses with upfronts of at least $50m, 51% originated in China (39% in 2025) and China accounted for 65% of upfront dollars (36% in 2025) · p. 32: Goodwin early-stage 2025 benchmark of 3.7%
Goodwin · “2025 Year in Review: Life Sciences Licensing & Collaboration Deals” · March 2026 · Upfront as a share of deal value for early-stage (discovery / preclinical) agreements increased from 1.5% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025; based on Goodwin's proprietary database of more than 200 transactions · goodwinlaw.com
Eugene Investment & Securities · Same report, pp. 7, 11, 36–38 and 41 · BIO biologics transition probabilities (2013–2022), including a 30% Phase 2-to-Phase 3 rate · Hypothetical EDU-101 whole-drug value of $852m with certain success vs $15.3m risk-adjusted · Licensor rNPV ₩106.6bn: upfront ₩42bn, development / regulatory milestones ₩24.2bn, sales milestones ₩14.5bn and royalties ₩25.9bn; nominal royalty-inclusive value ₩2.9274tn; about 10% of royalty-excluded headline value · Remaining contract value ₩64.6bn, rising to ₩603.6bn after clinical progress or falling to ₩49.1bn with a delay · Sensitivity range ₩88.5bn–₩124.8bn
BioPharm International · Coverage of BioMarin's acquisition of HM15421/GC1134A (citing BioMarin's Oct. 29 press release) · Oct. 30, 2026 · Exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize worldwide excluding South Korea (local rights retained by Hanmi and GC Biopharma); $70m upfront, up to $405m development / commercial milestones, plus tiered royalties · biopharminternational.com
BioMarin · Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (third-quarter 2026 earnings release) · Nov. 2, 2026 · Fabry candidate introduced as BMN 450 (HM15421/GC1134A); CEO referred to it as the “newest asset”; expected $83m in 2026 pretax costs, including acquired in-process R&D · sec.gov
Eugene Investment & Securities · Same report, p. 21 · Peptron–Eli Lilly evaluation agreement (Oct. 2024); after the Oct. 7, 2026 Korean market close, Peptron posted that evaluation had ended and no follow-on agreement had been announced; shares fell 29.9% Oct. 8 (KRX close-to-close)
Daily Pharm · “Pharma/Biotech Disclosure Overhaul to Put R&D Results in Numbers” · July 30, 2026 · FSS proposal to separate upfront, development milestone, regulatory / sales milestone and royalty terms and conditions in licensing announcements; detailed continuous disclosure rules under Korea Exchange review · dailypharm.com
Bizwatch · “Pharma/Biotech Disclosure Rules to Prioritize Financial Terms over Blue-Sky Drug Claims” · July 30, 2026 · bizwatch.co.kr
EBN · “Alteogen Reports Record Quarterly Operating Profit of ₩78.9bn” · Nov. 3, 2026 · Preliminary third-quarter sales of ₩119.8bn and operating profit of ₩78.9bn (nine-month cumulative revenue ₩260.3bn, operating profit ₩152.4bn) · Management attributed results to commercial progress with partner products and new technology out-licensing agreements · ebn.co.kr
Alpha Economy · “Alteogen's Nine-Month Operating Profit Exceeds Full-Year 2025” · Nov. 3, 2026 · Reported receipt of milestones linked to Keytruda SC sales; post-commercialization royalties separate · alphabiz.co.kr
Merck (MSD) · Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2 (third-quarter 2026 earnings tables) · Keytruda Qlex third-quarter sales of $830m and January–September sales of $1.42bn · sec.gov

Snowshagal Investment Insight No. 24 · snowshagal.com

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