SNOWSHAGALQ4 exchange rates remain lower
Yuanta sees continued pressure because the quarter-to-date average USD/KRW rate is below Q3's. APR plans to shorten collection periods on overseas receivables rather than use a separate FX hedge11.
FIVE POINTS FOR BUSY READERS
- October cosmetics exports set a new record for October. The January–October total has already exceeded the full-year 2025 figure. September, however, remains the biggest single month on record.
- Growth is clearly strong, but it is too soon to call it an acceleration. Combining September and October to smooth out the Chuseok holiday effect produces a lower growth rate.
- Q3 exports to Europe under HS 3304 grew roughly three times as fast as those to the US. But 85% of Europe's incremental exports went to the UK, Netherlands and Estonia. Whether those shipments became local sales is a separate question.
- The export boom is not translating evenly into corporate profits. APR doubled revenue but missed profit expectations. LG Household & Health Care increased group profit, while its beauty division remained loss-making.
- The sector's valuation multiple has fallen sharply, but lower does not automatically mean cheap. Fourth-quarter earnings must show whether the lower multiple is justified.
On Nov. 1, the government reported a record October for cosmetics exports1. Yet the combined market capitalization of nine cosmetics companies tracked by Hanwha Investment & Securities fell 5.5% in the preceding week, Oct. 26–302.
That looks contradictory until you examine the earnings. APR's third-quarter revenue doubled year over year, but operating profit came in 11.5% below market expectations2, 3. Profits did not fall. They grew—just not as much as investors had expected.
The international spread of K-beauty is real. During L'Oréal's Oct. 22 earnings presentation, the CEO described the K-beauty boom as real and estimated that Korean skincare brands were growing at an average rate of roughly 30%4, 5. Selling more and retaining more profit are two different things. This report follows the export boom through to the companies—and earnings—that stand to benefit.
STEP 01Exports
A record October for cosmetics exports;
strong growth continues
October was not the largest month of all time. September holds that record at US$1.51bn6. Still, January–October exports have already surpassed the whole of 2025.
Four measures of October cosmetics exports
| Source (currency) | Coverage | October exports | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
All cosmetics categories | US$1.444bn | +57.5% | |
Hana Securities (USD)8 | HS 3304 | US$1.182bn | +56.9% |
Hanwha Securities (USD)2 | HS 3304 | US$1.18bn | +55.7% |
Hanwha Securities (KRW) | HS 3304 | ₩1.59tn | +48.1% |
HS 3304 is the international tariff classification for skincare and makeup. The ministry's broader cosmetics category also includes fragrances, haircare and body products.
Most of the gap reflects product coverage and currency. Even the two US-dollar estimates for HS 3304 differ slightly—Hana at +56.9% and Hanwha at +55.7%—so the timing of preliminary data and the comparison base also matter.
HS 3304 monthly exports:
2026 beat 2025 in every month through October
2025 versus 2026 same-month comparisons · Units: US$100m · Labels above bars show YoY growth (%) · October provisional
Sources: Korea Customs Service (final Jan.–Sep. figures)9; Hana Securities (provisional October)8
WHAT THE DATA TELLS US
- Why KRW growth is lower The average won/dollar exchange rate in October was 5.3% lower than a year earlier. The same dollar revenue translates into fewer won2.
- Strong growth, but acceleration is unproven October's growth in won terms (+48.1%) exceeded Q3's (+42.1%). But exports were depressed by the Chuseok holiday in October 2025. Combining September and October gives +34.7% in won terms and +41.7% in dollars2, 8, 9. We need more evidence before concluding that growth is speeding up.
- Year-to-date exports have exceeded last year January–October exports reached US$12.57bn, surpassing US$11.42bn for full-year 20251.
Volume versus unit values
Q3 cosmetics exports:
breaking growth into volume and unit value
YoY comparison · volume and average unit value
Sources: Bank of Korea export volume/value indices (Yuanta calculation)10; Korea Customs Service9
- Volumes also grew By 5.6% under the Bank of Korea index, or 23.1% by Customs shipment weight9, 10.
- Under the BOK index, most growth came from unit values Average unit value rose 32.1%10. By value per kilogram, the increase was 12.3%, with weight contributing more.9.
Higher volumes alongside higher average export values are encouraging. But the average can rise simply because exporters ship more small, high-priced serums, even if no individual product becomes more expensive. This is not, by itself, proof of price hikes on like-for-like products or stronger brand pricing power. Yuanta argues that brand pricing limits the impact of won appreciation10.
The two methods define volume differently, so they assign different shares of growth to price. The claim that unit values account for most growth applies specifically to the BOK-index calculation.
STEP 02Europe
Europe's exports surged—
but were those shipments sold or warehoused?
Q3 HS 3304 exports to Europe grew roughly three times as fast as those to the US. Most of the increase, however, was concentrated in three countries.
Europe's Q3 export growth
was concentrated in three countries
Circle size represents Q3 HS 3304 export value; percentages show YoY growth · Darker circles: growth above 100% · Locations approximate
Source: Korea Customs Service9; hub locations: Hana Securities8
- Growth In Q3, HS 3304 exports to Europe (excluding seven countries including Russia) rose 113% versus 35% to the US. For January–September, Europe grew 90% against 36% in the US—a roughly 2.5-to-1 ratio9. The ratio depends on product coverage and period.
- Concentration The UK, Netherlands and Estonia accounted for 85% of Europe's incremental exports. Shipments to Germany fell 7%, while France grew 10%9.
- Distribution hubs Evidence points to expanded distribution hubs in the UK and Netherlands. Hana Securities reports APR logistics centers operating in both countries8. Estonia also posted a surge, but the presence of a comparable hub has not been confirmed. Exports measure shipments, not whether goods are sitting in a local warehouse or have reached consumers.
What export statistics capture—
and what still needs verification
There are signs of broader growth. In Hana's October data, Germany rose 102% and Spain 123%. But at US$15m and US$5m, respectively, their export values were far below the Netherlands (US$52m) and the UK (US$51m)8.
As of Oct. 31, an average of 13.2 Korean-brand products ranked in Amazon Beauty's top 100 across five European countries, compared with 12 in the US2. That can serve as a secondary measure of brand visibility and channel penetration—not a direct comparison of revenue or market share.
Has Europe overtaken the US?
Yuanta Securities reported that Europe accounted for 23.2% of January–September exports, exceeding the US share of 21.0% for the first time11. Rebuilding the series from Customs data yields a figure near 23% only when seven countries including Russia, plus Türkiye, are included. Excluding those countries puts Europe at 17.6%, below the US.
Hanwha's figures, which exclude Russia and the CIS, likewise put Europe at 19.5% versus 20.6% for the US in Q3, and 18.6% versus 20.4% in October2, 5. The defensible conclusion is that the ranking depends on which countries count as Europe.
MORE ON THE EUROPEAN DATA
Q3 HS 3304 exports by destination
| Country | Q3 exports | YoY |
|---|---|---|
United States | US$697m | +35% |
China | US$448m | +10% |
Japan | US$252m | +19% |
United Kingdom | US$170m | +249% |
Netherlands | US$157m | +400% |
Estonia | US$53m | +275% |
France | US$37m | +10% |
Germany | US$22m | −7% |
Source: Korea Customs Service9
Europe's share of cosmetics exports, Jan.–Sep.:
from 13% to 23%, depending on definition
Combined HS 3303, 3304, 3305 and 3307 · Jan.–Sep. 2026 · Dashed line marks the US share · Definitions exceeding the US are shown in dark pink
Source: calculations using Korea Customs Service destination-level exports9 · The seven states are Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yuanta has not disclosed its country list, so the underlying coverage cannot be assumed identical.
Final October destination data are due from Customs in mid-November. Brokerages define Europe differently: Hanwha excludes Russia and the CIS; Hana sums nine European countries; Yuanta uses the Korea International Trade Association's regional classification.
STEP 03Corporate Earnings
Revenue doubled.
Profit still missed expectations.
APR's operating profit grew 69% year over year, but fell short of estimates. Amorepacific broadly met expectations, while LG Household & Health Care posted higher group profit but another loss in beauty. Even within K-beauty, cost structures and routes to growth differ.
APR's third quarter:
revenue doubled, but profit missed estimates
Q3 2025 versus Q3 2026 · Units: KRW100m · Dashed line: consensus operating profit
Source: APR regulatory filing3; consensus: Yuanta Securities11and Hanwha Investment & Securities2
Preliminary Q3 consolidated earnings
| Metric | Amorepacific | APR |
|---|---|---|
Revenue | ₩1.1295tn+11.1% | ₩773.1bn+100.3% |
Operating profit | ₩115.2bn+25.4% | ₩160.6bn+68.9% |
Net income | ₩58.5bn−14.3% | ₩110.2bn+47.6% |
Operating profit versus consensus | In line−1.0% | Miss−11.5% |
Changes are YoY · Sources: Amorepacific (Oct. 29)12and APR (Oct. 30)3 filings; consensus comparison: Hanwha Investment & Securities2
APR shares fell 7.6% on the Oct. 30 earnings announcement. The KOSPI also dropped 3.48% that day, so the entire share-price decline cannot be attributed to the earnings release13.
WHAT THE DATA TELLS US
- Currency hurt profits through two channels Foreign-currency receivables generated losses, and overseas sales translated into fewer won. APR put the combined operating-profit impact at about ₩27.8bn, or 3.6 percentage points of margin14, 15.
- The accounting effect is a separate number Under the previous presentation standard, before IFRS 18, operating profit would have been ₩176.7bn15. The ₩16.1bn gap reflects where income and expenses are classified, not the absence of FX exposure. Consensus comparisons must use the same accounting basis.
- APR's business segments diverged Cosmetics and beauty revenue rose 150.6%, while beauty-device sales fell 17.9%. APR attributed the device decline to the absence of a major promotional event14.
- Amorepacific grew by a different route Sales of flagship North American brand Laneige fell 10%, but gains at Aestura, Innisfree and other brands lifted Americas revenue 16.9%. Domestic operating profit climbed 42% to ₩84.6bn8, 11.
LG Household & Health Care's Nov. 3 results underscored the contrast. Q3 consolidated operating profit rose 52.4% YoY to ₩70.4bn, even as revenue slipped 0.2% to ₩1.5774tn16. The household-care division earned ₩31.0bn and beverages earned ₩50.3bn, while beauty posted a ₩10.9bn operating loss. The beauty division's loss narrowed year over year but did not turn into a profit17, 18. Higher group earnings do not mean the beauty business has recovered.
LG H&H's Q3 operating profit:
up overall, but beauty still in the red
Business-unit operating profit reconciled to group total of ₩70.4bn · Units: KRW100m
Source: LG Household & Health Care filing16; segment figures: Korea Economic Daily17
APR: Q4 profit needed to meet full-year guidance
| Scenario | FY operating profit | Required Q4 profit | Versus Q4 consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
Low end of guidance | ₩730bn | ~₩226.5bn | ~3% above |
High end of guidance | ₩750bn | ~₩246.5bn | ~12% above |
APR guided to full-year revenue of ₩3tn and operating profit of ₩730bn–₩750bn at its earnings presentation14. Hana Securities highlighted the ₩750bn figure8. Subtracting January–September operating profit of ₩503.5bn3leaves ₩226.5bn–₩246.5bn to earn in Q4. The lower end is roughly 3% above Q4 consensus of ₩220.1bn as of Nov. 1; the upper end is about 12% higher2. Nov. 2 brokerage forecasts span that range: Yuanta ₩224.2bn, Hanwha ₩229.7bn and Hana ₩247.1bn—some below the minimum needed, others above the upper end2, 8, 11. Whether estimates move up is the next test. These are the profits required to meet management's annual target, not thresholds that guarantee a higher share price. APR also cautioned that FX effects may prevent it from achieving its 24–25% operating-margin target14.
Preliminary results have not been externally audited. APR early-adopted IFRS 18 in 2026 and restated the prior-year comparatives on the new basis3.
STEP 04Valuations
The sector's multiple has fallen sharply.
That doesn't make it cheap.
The sector's forward P/E fell from 19.4x at the end of August to 12.5x on Oct. 30. Earnings must establish whether that lower multiple is warranted.
Cosmetics sector 12-month forward P/E:
most of the compression preceded APR's results
Hanwha's nine-company universe · P/E expressed in multiples
P/E moves reflect changes in both share prices and earnings forecasts; a 31% drop in the multiple does not mean share prices fell 31%. Source: Hanwha Investment & Securities2, 5
WHAT THE DATA TELLS US
- Trading at 60% of the 10-year average does not imply a 40% discount to fair value A historical average is not a fair-value guarantee. If the index constituents, growth profile or earnings durability change, the same multiple may no longer be appropriate.
- What brokerages cite Won appreciation (USD/KRW from ₩1,554.4 per dollar on July 2 to ₩1,335.3 on Oct. 30)11, freight costs and fears of slower consumer spending2. Timing alone cannot establish causation.
- Freight costs In September, average sea-export transport costs per 40-foot container reached ₩9.51m to the US West Coast and ₩5.04m to the EU, up roughly 90% and 36–39%, respectively, from April19, 20. These are averages across sea exports, not evidence that cosmetics companies' individual logistics bills rose by the same percentages.
Not every part of the sector performed alike
| Group | YTD | Since Aug. 28 peak |
|---|---|---|
ODM (product development/manufacturing) | +50.0% | −27.3% |
Packaging | +16.9% | +4.1% |
Brands | +3.8% | −31.7% |
Overseas distributors | −26.0% | −47.7% |
Share-price returns through Oct. 30 · Source: Yuanta Securities11
Yuanta argues that brands and distributors shipping directly overseas bear the freight and FX burden. ODM manufacturers and packaging suppliers with more domestic deliveries have been less exposed, in its view11. Daishin Securities similarly argues that local production gives Cosmax and Kolmar Korea an advantage when the won strengthens21. The next test is whether ODM earnings support that thesis.
COUNTERPOINTIs a stronger won necessarily bad for cosmetics stocks?
- In Yuanta's data since 2013, the sector's average P/E was 24.9x during periods when USD/KRW was below ₩1,200, versus 16.8x when it was at or above ₩1,30011.
- Eugene Investment & Securities listed cosmetics among sectors that held up well during the past year's period of won appreciation (Oct. 2025–Oct. 2026)22.
These observations show correlation, not proof that a stronger won lifts share prices. FX can also directly erode earnings, as APR's Q3 illustrates.
P/E estimates vary by universe and date: Yuanta puts it at 12.9x (Oct. 30; average 22.2x since 2013), while Daishin has 10.3x for 11 cosmetics/apparel companies (21st percentile over ten years)11, 21. They should not be conflated into a single supposedly fair sector P/E.
STEP 05What to Watch
What to check in the next earnings cycle—
and what would change the thesis
The companies and the evidence to watch
| Company / indicator | What would matter |
|---|---|
APR | Does Q4 operating profit approach guidance? Are FX and freight pressures easing? Do subsequent earnings estimates rise? |
Amorepacific | Can gains at other brands keep offsetting weakness in one flagship brand? Are overseas growth and profitability improving together? |
ODM | Do margins improve as well as revenue? Does the supposed relative advantage from a stronger won show up in reported results? |
European exports | Do shipments into hub countries translate into local sell-through and reorders? Does distribution broaden across countries and channels without excess inventory? |
These are tests to apply going forward, not conditions already confirmed.
This year's growth sets a high bar
Daishin expects growth in the 30% range during 2026 to create a demanding comparison in 2027. It favors overweighting the sector in the first half, then moving to neutral in the second21.
Shipment dates distort monthly figures
Hana says some year-end promotional inventory shipped in September; October then benefited from deferred September shipments and more working days8. That can make monthly growth rates volatile.
These factors affect reported growth, but they do not eliminate demand risk. If we see slower reorders, deeper discounting or rising inventories,the interpretation of strong exports must change.
UPCOMING EVENTS
LG H&H Q3 earnings · ReportedOperating profit ₩70.4bn (+52.4%); beauty division loss ₩10.9bn
Kolmar Korea / Cosmecca Korea Q3 earningsODM margins and the impact of won appreciation
Pum-Tech Korea Q3 earnings
Tender offer for iFamily SC by a Marubeni subsidiary closesJapanese trading house's partnership with the operator of Rom&nd
d'Alba Global Q3 earnings
Korea Customs Service final October trade figuresDid European growth spread beyond the hub countries?
Ministry's November trade release
Earnings dates follow Hanwha Investment & Securities' schedule2. Tender-offer timing follows Hanwha's Oct. 27 report5.
STEP 06Conclusion
What we know—and what we don't
KNOWNCONFIRMED
- October cosmetics exports: US$1.444bn, a record for October. Jan.–Oct. already exceeded full-year 2025
- APR Q3 revenue +100.3%; operating profit +68.9% YoY, but below consensus
- LG H&H operating profit +52.4%; beauty division operating loss of ₩10.9bn
ESTIMATEFORECASTS / ESTIMATES
- APR full-year operating-profit guidance: ₩730bn–₩750bn; Q4 consensus: ₩220.1bn
- 2027 operating-profit growth: +18% for 11 cosmetics/apparel names (Daishin); +28% for nine cosmetics names (Yuanta)
- Limited impact from won appreciation thanks to brand pricing (Yuanta's assessment)
UNKNOWNUNRESOLVED
- Whether shipments to European hubs led to local sales and reorders
- The Q4 FX and logistics cost burden
- Whether ODMs actually benefit from a stronger won
CLOSING VIEW
Strong exports do not make every K-beauty stock equally attractive. Even when overseas sales rise, exchange rates, freight and marketing costs leave very different amounts of profit at different companies. The next question is not simply how fast exports are growing, but whether earnings beat market expectations—and whether they can keep doing so. The industry's boom is established. Investors now need to identify the companies that can turn that boom into durable profits.
- 1Does APR deliver at least the ~₩226.5bn of Q4 operating profit needed for the low end of guidance, and approach the ~₩246.5bn required for the top end?
- 2Do the Nov. 6 ODM results show improving operating margins, not just sales?
- 3Do final October Customs figures show European growth spreading beyond the UK and Netherlands?
Snowshagal Investment Insight
This report is intended to inform investment decisions, not recommend securities transactions. Each figure's reference date is given in its source.
METHODOLOGY AND DATA RECONCILIATIONS
Korea Customs Service query settings
- Accessed Nov. 2, 2026 · Korea Customs Service merchandise exports by product and destination · Customs acceptance date · Units: US$1,000 · Final data for Jan.–Sep. 2026 (October not yet available)
- Categories: HS 3303 (perfumes), 3304 (skincare/makeup), 3305 (haircare) and 3307 (shaving/body/bath)
What counts as Europe
- EU-27: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden
- Europe excluding seven states: EU-27 plus the UK, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo and others
- Seven states including Russia: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (excluding the five Central Asian countries)
- Using this same coverage gives a US share of 21.0% for Jan.–Sep., matching Yuanta. The 23.3% Europe share is close to Yuanta's 23.2%, but its full list of countries was not disclosed.
Calculations
- Shares: Combined HS 3303/3304/3305/3307 for Jan.–Sep. 2026. Total exports US$10.606bn, including US$2.230bn to the US.
- Q3 growth: HS 3304 totals for July–September. Europe excluding seven states: US$298m → US$634m; US: US$515m → US$697m.
- Three-country contribution: Incremental exports to the UK, Netherlands and Estonia of US$286m ÷ Europe's US$336m increase = 85%.
- Q3 by country (HS 3304): Japan US$211m → US$252m; Estonia US$14m → US$53m; France US$34m → US$37m; Germany US$24m → US$22m.
- Combined Sep.–Oct. growth (USD): (September US$1.213bn + October US$1.182bn) ÷ (US$937m + US$753m) − 1 = +41.7%. September from Customs; October from Hana.
- Weight-based: Q3 HS 3304 shipments 79,243 → 97,509 metric tonnes (+23.1%), export value +38.2%, and value per kg +12.3%.
- BOK-index value: Using Yuanta's volume and unit-value figures, 1.056 × 1.321 ≈ 1.395, or about +40%. The underlying Bank of Korea index was not independently retrieved.
- APR's required Q4 operating profit: ₩730bn − ₩503.5bn ≈ ₩226.5bn (2.9% above ₩220.1bn consensus); ₩750bn − ₩503.5bn ≈ ₩246.5bn (12.0% above consensus).
- P/E compression: End-Aug. → Oct. 23: 13.3 ÷ 19.4 − 1 = −31%; Oct. 23 → Oct. 30: 12.5 ÷ 13.3 − 1 = −6%. These are changes in multiples, not share-price returns.
- Freight: In September, ₩9.511m to the US West Coast and ₩5.04m to the EU per 40-foot container, including surcharges and fees. The April report gave ₩5.053m and ₩3.698m, while the subsequent May report revised the April US West Coast figure to ₩4.932m. Implied increases: US West Coast 88–93%, EU 36–38%. Yuanta reports +87.9% and +39.3%.
Differences across sources
- APR Q4 operating-profit forecasts: ₩220.1bn consensus (Nov. 1, cited by Hanwha); Yuanta ₩224.2bn, Hanwha ₩229.7bn and Hana ₩247.1bn (all Nov. 2 reports).
- European growth in Q3 and Jan.–Sep. (HS 3304; excluding seven states): Europe +112.6% in Q3; +89.9% in Jan.–Sep. (US$854m → US$1.622bn). US: +35.3% and +35.8%, respectively.
- Record month: The ministry reported September exports of US$1.51bn, an all-time monthly record; October's US$1.44bn set a record only for October. HS 3304 October (US$1.182bn) was also below September (US$1.213bn).
- Jan.–Sep. cosmetics exports: US$11.14bn in the ministry's broader series (+30.8%; cited by Yuanta); US$10.61bn for four HS 3303–3307 categories (+31.1%); US$9.10bn for HS 3304 (+29.6%).
- October exports to the US: Hana +52%; Hanwha +49.2% in USD / +42.0% in KRW. The ministry's all-cosmetics figures for Oct. 1–25: US +62.7%, EU +106.1%.
- Q3 Europe share: Hanwha 19.5% (KRW, excluding Russia/CIS); comparable Customs USD calculation 18.8%. Both are below the US share of 20.6%.
- Hana described October's European growth as “up 9 percentage points from September,” but the cited figures of 122% and 103% imply a 19-percentage-point difference.
- APR FX effects: Company-estimated operating-profit impact of ~₩27.8bn (foreign-currency receivables −1.9 percentage points of margin; KRW translation and cost ratio −1.7 points). Distinct from the ₩16.1bn difference in operating profit before versus after IFRS 18 adoption.
- APR overseas-revenue mix: Yuanta 94% (Q3); Daishin 92% (period not specified).
- P/E definitions: Hanwha's nine-company universe, 12.5x on Oct. 30; Yuanta's sector universe, 12.9x on Oct. 30; Daishin's 11 cosmetics/apparel companies, 10.3x using Oct. 15 earnings estimates.
- Brokerage-derived figures reproduced here: BOK indices (volume +5.6%, unit value +32.1%) and sector P/E estimates.
GLOSSARY
- HS 3304
- International tariff classification for skincare and makeup. HS 3303 covers fragrances; 3305 hair products; 3307 shaving, body and bath preparations.
- Average export unit value
- Export value divided by shipment volume. It can rise if higher-priced products gain share, even without any like-for-like price increases.
- CIS
- Commonwealth of Independent States, a grouping of several former Soviet republics. Hanwha excludes Russia and the CIS from its Europe calculation.
- Seven states including Russia
- This report groups Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan together.
- ODM
- Original design manufacturing: companies that develop and produce products for brands, such as Cosmax, Kolmar Korea and Cosmecca Korea.
- 12-month forward P/E
- Share price divided by estimated earnings per share over the next twelve months. The ratio can fall if the share price drops or expected earnings rise.
- IFRS 18
- A new financial-statement presentation standard, scheduled to take effect in 2027. Early adoption can move items such as gains and losses on foreign-currency receivables into operating profit.
- Guidance
- A company's own target or forecast for financial performance.
- Preliminary earnings
- Financial results disclosed before external audit; final figures may differ.
- Base effect
- When a low comparison period, such as a weak month last year, makes the latest YoY growth rate look unusually high.
- Consensus
- The average of analysts' estimates. Here, the FnGuide consensus cited by Hanwha.
SOURCES
Information cutoff: 6 p.m. Korea Standard Time on Nov. 3, 2026. Customs data are final through September, retrieved Nov. 2. Korean-language titles have been translated for readability.
- Beauty Economy, “Cosmetics exports hit a new high; cumulative October total already exceeds last year's full-year result” (citing ministry's October trade release), Nov. 1, 2026 · October US$1.444bn (+57.5%, versus US$917m a year earlier), Jan.–Oct. US$12.569bn versus full-year 2025 US$11.418bn · Oct. 1–25 exports: US +62.7%, EU +106.1% · thebk.co.kr
- Hanwha Investment & Securities, Industry Comment, “Cosmetics: An Oversold Sector,” Nov. 2, 2026 · October HS 3304 ₩1.59tn (+48.1%) / US$1.18bn (+55.7%); average USD/KRW −5.3% YoY; combined Sep.–Oct. growth +34.7% in KRW; European share 18.6%, US 20.4% · Last week's aggregate market cap of nine covered companies −5.5% · Q3 operating profit versus consensus: Amorepacific −1.0%, APR −11.5% · Nov. 1 Q4 consensus: Amorepacific ₩129.9bn, APR ₩220.1bn; Hanwha APR forecast ₩229.7bn · Oct. 30 sector forward P/E 12.5x (10-year avg. 20.9x, low 12.3x) · Oct. 31 Amazon Beauty top 100: average 13.2 Korean-brand products across five European countries versus 12 in the US · Q3 earnings calendar
- APR, Regulatory Fair Disclosure of Preliminary Consolidated Operating Results, Oct. 30, 2026 · Q3 revenue ₩773.1bn (+100.3%), operating profit ₩160.6bn (+68.9%), net income ₩110.2bn (+47.6%) · Jan.–Sep. operating profit ₩503.5bn · Early adoption of IFRS 18 and restatement of prior-year figures · dart.fss.or.kr
- Kyobo Securities, Spot Brief, “What L'Oréal's Results Mean: K-Beauty Includes ODMs Too!”, Oct. 26, 2026 · L'Oréal CEO described the K-beauty boom as real; Korean beauty brands growing ~30% on average, with 3–4% penetration of global skincare · ODM suppliers, including Cosmax, are part of the K-beauty industry
- Hanwha Investment & Securities, Industry Comment, “Cosmetics: Catching Its Breath,” Oct. 27, 2026 · Q3 HS 3304 export share: Europe 19.5%, US 20.6% (excluding Russia/CIS) · Sector 12-month forward P/E from 19.4x at end-August to 13.3x · Tender offer for iFamily SC by Welliant (wholly owned by Marubeni) through Nov. 11
- CNC News, “September cosmetics exports reach record US$1.5bn (+31%): 11 consecutive months of growth” (citing ministry September trade release), Oct. 1, 2026 · September US$1.51bn, an all-time monthly high · cncnews.co.kr
- CNC News, “October cosmetics exports US$1.4bn (+58%); cumulative US$12.6bn exceeds last year's US$11.4bn,” Nov. 1, 2026 · cncnews.co.kr
- Hana Securities, Weekly Retail-Cos. Letter, “Cosmetics Exports Weather Won Appreciation; A Promising Q4,” Nov. 2, 2026 · October HS 3304 US$1.182bn (+57%); US US$241m (+52%); nine European countries US$221m (+122%); Netherlands +450%, UK +251% (APR logistics centers), Germany +102%, Spain +123% · APR Q3 Europe revenue ₩177.8bn (forecast ₩157.0bn); full-year revenue target ₩3tn and operating profit ₩750bn retained; 24–25% operating margin may be missed; Q4 operating-profit forecast raised from ₩206.4bn to ₩247.1bn; substantial year-end B2B shipments completed · Amorepacific Laneige −10%
- Korea Customs Service, Import/Export Trade Statistics · Exports by HS code and destination (customs acceptance date; HS 3303/3304/3305/3307; final Jan. 2024–Sep. 2026 data) · Retrieved Nov. 2, 2026 · tradedata.go.kr
- Yuanta Securities, “2027 Economic Outlook: Prosperity Without Freedom,” Nov. 2, 2026, p. 47 · Q3 cosmetics export volume +5.6%, unit value +32.1% (BOK export value/volume indices, July–Sep. YoY averages) · October customs-based cosmetics exports +57.5%, characterized in the report as a monthly high · Limited impact of won appreciation due to brand pricing · On p. 20, October petroleum-product volume −7.5%, value +80.0%
- Yuanta Securities, Sector Report, “Cosmetics: The Technology of Youth and K-Beauty's New Growth Map,” Nov. 2, 2026 · Jan.–Sep. share: Europe 23.2%, US 21.0% (HS 3303/3304/3305/3307, Korea International Trade Association classification) · USD/KRW July 2 ₩1,554.4 → Oct. 30 ₩1,335.3 · September sea freight versus April: US West Coast +87.9%, Europe +39.3% (Customs) · Sector forward P/E 12.9x (average 22.2x since 2013); under ₩1,200/USD 24.9x, at or above ₩1,300/USD 16.8x · YTD: ODM +50.0%, packaging +16.9%, brands +3.8%, overseas distribution −26.0%; since Aug. 28 peak: −27.3%, +4.1%, −31.7%, −47.7% · APR: FX impact ~₩27.8bn of operating profit, 94% overseas exposure, Q4 operating-profit forecast ₩224.2bn (+72.1%), no dedicated FX hedge · Amorepacific Americas +16.9% · 2027 operating profit for nine companies ₩3.6376tn (+28.0%)
- Amorepacific, Regulatory Fair Disclosure of Preliminary Consolidated Operating Results, Oct. 29, 2026 · Q3 revenue ₩1.1295tn (+11.1%), operating profit ₩115.2bn (+25.4%), net income ₩58.5bn (−14.3%) · dart.fss.or.kr
- Daishin Securities, Quantin Strategy Plan, “The Higher the Hopes, the Deeper the Disappointment: Shaken Confidence in AI and Semiconductors,” Oct. 30, 2026 · Shares missing estimates included APR (−7.6%); KOSPI closed at 5,730.74 (−3.48%)
- Consumer News, “APR Surpasses Last Year's Full-Year Results in Three Quarters, with Revenue Above ₩2tn and Cosmetics Up 151%,” Oct. 30, 2026 · Company commentary: 2026 revenue ₩3tn and operating profit ₩730bn–₩750bn; achievement of 24–25% operating margin uncertain · FX reduced operating profit ₩27.8bn · Cosmetics/beauty revenue ₩682.3bn (+150.6%); beauty devices ₩84.7bn (−17.9%, no major promotional event) · Europe accounted for 23% of Q3 revenue · consumernews.co.kr
- sateconomy.co.kr, “APR Posts Record Revenue but Operating Profit Falls ₩29.9bn on Costs and FX,” Oct. 30, 2026 · Company-estimated FX effect ~₩27.8bn (3.6 percentage points of margin: receivables 1.9 points, KRW translation 1.7 points) · Q3 operating profit under the pre-IFRS 18 presentation basis: ₩176.7bn · sateconomy.co.kr
- LG Household & Health Care, Regulatory Fair Disclosure of Preliminary Consolidated Operating Results, Nov. 3, 2026 · Q3 revenue ₩1.5774tn (−0.2%), operating profit ₩70.4bn (+52.4%), net income ₩12.8bn (−45.2%) · dart.fss.or.kr
- Korea Economic Daily, “LG H&H Q3 Operating Profit Rises 52%, While Revenue Stays Flat,” Nov. 3, 2026 · Beauty revenue ₩660.8bn (−0.3%), operating loss ₩10.9bn (loss narrowed) · Household & Daily Beauty revenue ₩419.2bn, operating profit ₩31.0bn · Refreshment revenue ₩497.4bn, operating profit ₩50.3bn · hankyung.com
- News Tomato, “LG H&H Q3 Operating Profit Up 52%; Beauty Loss Narrows,” Nov. 3, 2026 · newstomato.com
- Korea International Trade Association Trade News, “September Sea Freight Rises to the US West Coast, Falls to the East Coast, and Rises to the Middle East” (citing Korea Customs Service September sea-freight release), Oct. 15, 2026 · US West Coast ₩9.511m and EU ₩5.04m per 40-foot container (2 TEU) · kita.net
- “April 2026 Import/Export Freight Costs” (reprint of Korea Customs Service figures), June 2, 2026 · April sea-export freight: US West Coast ₩5.053m, EU ₩3.698m · dazabi.com · In the subsequent report covering May (June 15, 2026), April's US West Coast figure was revised to ₩4.932m · dazabi.com
- Daishin Securities, “Turning Adversity into Opportunity: Normalizing the Abnormal, and What Comes Next” (2027 economic and market outlook / investment strategy), Oct. 2026, pp. 57, 67–68 · Cosmetics/apparel ranked ninth for attractiveness; overweight in H1, neutral in H2 · 2027 operating profit +18.4% (11 companies); forward P/E 10.3x (21st percentile over ten years) · Local-production manufacturers Cosmax and Kolmar Korea may benefit when the won strengthens
- Eugene Investment & Securities, Global Strategy, “Speed Bump,” 2027 Outlook, Nov. 2, 2026, p. 49 · Sectors resilient as USD/KRW fell (Oct. 2025–Oct. 2026 correlation): energy, insurance, IT appliances, banks, cosmetics and transportation