- 2028 is the year the market fears. Analysts see operating profit at the two leading Korean memory makers rising roughly 56–68% in 2027 from 2026 levels, yet their shares trade at 12-month forward P/E ratios of roughly 3x.
- New fabs begin production in 2027, but the capacity wave comes in 2028. The first wafers arrive in 2027, but installing and qualifying the full toolset can take more than a year. DS Securities expects capacity growth to peak in 2028.
- More capacity does not automatically mean a memory glut. The three leading memory manufacturers expect supply to remain tight in 2028. Whether there is a surplus depends on demand, which the available data cannot yet establish.
- Long-term agreements cushion the downturn; they do not eliminate it. Even contracted volumes can reprice within agreed bands. In bearish brokerage scenarios, operating profit falls to a little over half its 2027 level in 2028, and roughly 40% by 2029.
- Watch order reductions and contract coverage—not just new construction. The counterargument comes from demand: PC makers have started trimming memory procurement, while some data-center projects have slipped. Server-side order cuts have not yet been confirmed.
Hover over dotted-underlined terms—or tap on mobile—for definitions. Red dotted underlines identify the report's key concepts.
On Nov. 12 (U.S. time), NVIDIA announced a CEO transition, naming CFO Colette Kress interim CEO. Its fiscal third-quarter results remain scheduled for Nov. 18 at 6:20 a.m. Korea time, followed by a 7 a.m. earnings call.1 On Nov. 13, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.4%, while Micron declined 2.5%.2 It was another week in which investors asked how long the AI investment cycle could last.
Korean memory makers face that question more directly than most. SK hynix reported third-quarter revenue of ₩104 trillion and operating profit of ₩83 trillion.3 Yet Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are trading 40–60% below their June peaks.
There is no single explanation for those declines. Credit concerns among the companies financing AI infrastructure have also weighed on sentiment (No. 29). This report isolates the 2028 supply question: the year widely expected to see the sharpest increase in memory capacity. We examine whether that timing is right—and how severe the impact might be—through fab schedules, supply and demand, and contract terms.
Earnings estimates rise through 2027;
share prices are looking at 2028
12-month forward P/E at 3x means the market is valuing a company at roughly three years of projected earnings. The question is how long those earnings can last.
| Metric | Samsung Electronics | SK hynix |
|---|---|---|
| Operating profit: 2026 → 2027DS Securities estimates | ₩387tn → ₩632tn+63% | ₩284tn → ₩444tn+56% |
| Same periodEugene Securities base case | ₩387tn → ₩649tn+68% | ₩285tn → ₩474tn+66% |
| 12-month forward P/ESK Securities, Nov. 12 | 3.3x | 2.9x |
| Share price (Nov. 13 close)Versus June peak · versus three months earlier | −43.2% · −23.1% | −58.3% · −23.7% |
Sources: DS Securities, Eugene Securities, SK Securities, Daum Finance (Korea Exchange closing prices)4, 5, 6, 7
What to watch
- The market's reference year has shifted to 2028. Daishin Securities argues that the question by year-end will be how much of 2028 earnings can be sustained. Its base case calls for flat earnings in 2028.8
- Some analysts have raised earnings estimates while cutting price targets. On Nov. 9, Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 and 2028 operating-profit forecasts for both companies but lowered its share-price targets, expecting margins to revert toward historical averages from 2029 onward.9
- No confirmed server order cuts yet. According to SK Securities, past downcycles followed a sequence: a share-price peak, then order cuts about three months later, and price declines another three months after that (see No. 29). The firm reported no such order-cut signal after this June's peak as of Nov. 9.10 Some PC vendors, however, have begun reducing planned memory purchases (Section 06).
A 3x P/E is not automatically a bargain. If the earnings denominator reflects a cyclical peak, a fall in profit will push the multiple higher even if the share price stays flat. Under Eugene Securities' bear case, the same share price would imply a P/E rising from the low 2x range in 2027 to the low 4x range in 2028.
Production starts in 2027;
the capacity surge follows in 2028
Hana Securities expects equipment move-in at SK hynix Yongin Fab 1, Micron Idaho Fab 1 (ID1), and Samsung's Pyeongtaek P5 to begin during the first three quarters of 2027. The equipment move-in marks the start of bringing production tools into completed cleanrooms. First wafers can come out that year, but if tool installation and qualification takes roughly a year, meaningful output ramps in 2028.
The memory fab build-out:
first wafers versus full ramp
The sequence is equipment move-in → first wafers → tool setup completion → target capacity. First wafers precede the completion of installation and qualification; reaching planned run-rate capacity takes longer still.
Sources: Hana Securities (tool move-in and setup), SK hynix and Micron (company milestones), DS Securities (P4 and P5), The Korea Economic Daily (P5)4, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 · Only major fabs are shown; Micron's Tongluo, Taiwan expansion (shipments from mid-2027) and Japan expansion (first production in late 2028), among others, are excluded.
Why does the process take more than a year?
- More tools are needed. New fabs use 1c-node DRAM processes, which require more equipment. SK hynix began moving tools into its Cheongju M15X fab in Q4 2025 and started wafer processing in Q1 2026, according to company filings.12 Hana Securities expects tool setup to finish in Q4 2026—roughly a year after move-in began—and assumes a similar timetable for fabs starting in 2027.11
- Fab construction itself takes time. DS Securities estimates about three and a half years from construction to wafer output. HBM requires stacking and testing after wafer fabrication before it can be shipped.4
- Industry researchers see a similar timeline. TrendForce expects new fabs to make a meaningful contribution to supply from 2028 onward.16
- But 2027 will not be a zero-output year. Yongin Fab 1's first cleanroom is targeted for February 2027, and Micron ID1's first wafer is slated for mid-2027.13, 14 Hana Securities projects both fabs starting at about 10,000 wafers per month in Q3 2027, reaching only about 40,000 and 15,000 wafers per month, respectively, by year-end.11
That is why capacity growth is expected to peak in 2028. The figures below refer to DRAM, including HBM. NAND needs to be analyzed separately: TrendForce expects its supply balance to ease from the second half of 2027.16
Capacity growth peaks
in 2028
More wafer starts do not translate directly into more saleable bits. We therefore use effective capacity adjusted for HBM mix and bits per wafer · DRAM at Samsung, SK hynix, Micron and CXMT · Year-on-year change (%)
Source: DS Securities estimates4
Most of the 2027 output comes from fabs already under expansion, including Pyeongtaek P4 and Cheongju M15X, with a substantial portion allocated to HBM. Hana Securities therefore estimates that although total capacity at the three major manufacturers grows 14%, conventional DRAM capacity increases only about 5%.11 In 2028, P4 expands further, while Yongin Fab 1 and ID1 add capacity.
| Company | 2027 → 2028 | Increase | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics | 722 → 894 | +172 | 45% |
| CXMT | 200 → 297 | +97 | 26% |
| SK hynix | 585 → 642 | +57 | 15% |
| Micron | 339 → 392 | +53 | 14% |
| Four-firm total | 1,846 → 2,226 | +380 | +20.6% |
Effective capacity, thousands of wafers/month · Source: DS Securities estimates4
DS Securities estimates that China's CXMT accounts for about one-quarter of the four firms' capacity increase. Of Samsung's 150,000-wafer-per-month addition in nominal capacity, 90,000 (60%) is expected to come from Pyeongtaek P4, which has been expanding since 2026. P5 would contribute only about 20,000 wafers per month even at the end of 2028.4 Samsung itself has said it would be difficult for incremental capital spending in 2027 to make a meaningful contribution to bit output in 2028.17
The market has good reason to focus on 2028. But the bulk of that year's added capacity is expected to come from fabs already running and from China—not solely from the fabs making their debut in 2027.
Nominal capacity (monthly wafer-start capacity) and effective capacity are not interchangeable. Hana Securities' 2027 forecasts of +15% globally and +14% for the top three are nominal measures; DS Securities' +14.7% and +20.6% are effective-capacity measures. Both are year-end monthly run-rates—not annual shipment growth or estimates of excess supply.
A 20% capacity increase
does not mean a 20% DRAM surplus
Whether supply becomes excessive depends on demand. Manufacturers and brokerage analysts generally expect the market to remain tight in 2028.
| Source | 2027–28 supply-demand outlook |
|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics (Oct. 29) | Supply remains tight through 2028 |
| SK hynix (Oct. 28) | Demand exceeds supply through 2030 |
| Micron (Sep. 30) | Even with industry DRAM bit shipments growing by a low-20s percentage in both 2027 and 2028, supply remains constrained. A return to balance is not yet in sight. |
| Hana Securities (Nov. 12) | The planned expansion schedule points to tight supply through 2028 |
| DS Securities (Nov. 10) | In 2027, bit demand growth (mid-20s%) outpaces shipment growth (mid-teens%). Nevertheless, its base case assumes a price correction in 2028 (Section 05). |
Sources: Samsung Electronics (via The Elec), SK hynix, Micron, Hana Securities and DS Securities3, 4, 11, 14, 17 · Bear in mind that all three manufacturers are sellers of memory chips.
What to watch
- Can prices fall even in a tight market? Yes. Prices that have reached cyclical highs can decline simply because shortages become less acute. DS Securities' call for a price correction is not the same as a forecast of oversupply.
- Demand estimates also offer a counterweight. DS Securities forecasts global AI server shipments rising roughly 30% to 5.03 million units in 2028.4 But server unit shipments and DRAM production capacity are different measures. Comparing their growth rates directly cannot establish whether there will be a surplus.
- Oversupply therefore cannot yet be treated as a certainty. The timing of the supply build-out is comparatively visible; whether demand can keep pace remains contested (Section 06).
How much downside can
long-term supply agreements absorb?
Contracts provide some volume commitments and price floors, but prices can still fall within agreed ranges. The contractual floor prices have not been disclosed, making it impossible to quantify how much earnings protection they provide.
| Metric | SK hynix (10.28) | Samsung Electronics (10.29·7.30) | Micron (9.30) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customers | 14 major customers | Agreements with 10 large customers; negotiations with another 10 | 26 strategic customer agreements |
| Volume coverage | More than 50% of total capacity in 2027 and 2028 | Targeting 60–70% of capacity by 2030 · 2027 HBM supply sold out at target prices | More than 35% of projected revenue through 2030 |
| Term | Typically five years; extensions under discussion | Five-year base term, with annual negotiations to add another year (July) | Some contracts run through 2031 · Customers pay for undrawn volumes (take-or-pay) |
| Pricing | Market-linked adjustments within an agreed range | conventional products subject to floor prices (July) | Pricing mechanism set for three-quarters of projected contract revenue; more than half of that has both floors and ceilings. The remaining quarter is negotiated at market prices. |
| Customer prepayments | Not disclosed | Substantial amount; one-quarter received as of July | $32bn in customer financing commitments, most in cash deposits |
Sources: SK hynix, The Elec (Samsung Q3 call), MoneyToday and Economic Review (Q2 call), and Micron3, 14, 17, 18, 19 · The denominators differ: SK hynix reports secured share of capacity; Samsung states a 2030 target; Micron measures against projected revenue through 2030.
What long-term agreements can—and cannot—lock in
- They help secure volumes and a price floor. Customers reserve capacity in advance, while suppliers use floors and prepayments to limit the downside. Micron says its margins would exceed those of any previous cycle peak even at the contracted floor prices.14
- Contract coverage is still expanding. SK Securities reports discussions to extend three-year-plus-two-year arrangements into firm five-year agreements.6 IBK Securities believes 2028 production may already be largely committed, potentially at levels approaching full utilization.20
- They do not freeze prices within the permitted range. SK hynix incorporates market prices within agreed bands. More than half of Micron's contracts with established pricing mechanisms also include ceilings, which cap upside when prices rise.
- A substantial share of capacity remains outside long-term agreements. Without granular disclosures, investors can still track whether the share covered by long-term supply agreements is growing.
Under bear cases, profits fall to
roughly half in 2028 and 40% in 2029
These figures are relative to 2027 operating profit and assume DRAM price declines comparable to past downcycles. Eugene Securities explicitly describes its bearish scenario as highly unlikely to materialize.
2028–29 operating profit:
change versus 2027 (%)
Sources: DS Securities and Eugene Securities forecasts · Their 2027 baselines differ4, 5
| Metric | DRAM price assumption | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| DS base case | 2028: −25%; 2029: −15% (−36% over two years, blended ASP) | Combined 2029 operating profit is roughly 70% of the combined 2027 level (Samsung 73%; SK hynix 65%) |
| DS bear case | 2028: −40%; 2029: −25% (−55% over two years) | 2029 operating profit: Samsung ₩272tn; SK hynix ₩166tn |
| Eugene bear case | Declines begin in Q3 2027; in 2028, HBM contract ASP −50%; blended ASP −40% | Q4 2028 DRAM operating margin about 70% (NAND about 50%) |
| 2018 → 2019 | Actual decline: −48% to −50% | DRAM operating margin: Samsung 62.5% → 38.5%; SK hynix 65.0% → 32.3% |
| 2022 → 2023 | Actual decline: −37% to −40% | DRAM operating margin: Samsung 43.6% → −0.8%; SK hynix 33.1% → 1.7% |
Sources: DS Securities (including the two historical downcycles) and Eugene Securities4, 5
Why would more profit survive this downcycle?
- HBM prices respond later—and less severely. DS Securities expects HBM contract prices to lag conventional DRAM market movements, while a higher HBM mix cushions the blended ASP decline.4
- Contract price floors provide a backstop. Eugene Securities estimates that prices in its bear case are close to the LTA floor. Even there, it projects DRAM margins comparable to the 2017–18 peak.5
- Both brokerages argue that much of this downside is already reflected in share prices. Eugene Securities notes that its bear-case 2028 BVPS is close to the current share price; DS Securities argues that current valuations reflect something like its bearish 2029 earnings scenario.4, 5 However, a P/B of 1x is a valuation reference point, not a guaranteed floor. If projected book value per share falls, that reference point falls too.
The percentage decline depends on the 2027 starting point. DS Securities forecasts Samsung's 2027 operating profit at ₩632tn, while Eugene Securities uses ₩563tn in its bear case.
The counterargument: demand could
turn before the fabs ramp up
If demand weakens first, the risk arrives earlier than 2028. PC inventories are building and procurement plans are being scaled back. Server-related order cancellations have not yet been confirmed.
- PC manufacturers have begun cutting memory purchases. TrendForce says notebook shipments fell 15.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while PC makers' DRAM inventories have increased since that quarter. Some vendors are revising procurement plans for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. A number had ordered more than needed as prices surged.21
- Apple forecasts a gross margin of 45–46% for its December quarter, with memory costs among the headwinds. Qualcomm's smartphone chip revenue fell 26% year-on-year. Hana Securities interprets this as demand destruction caused by passing higher component costs on to customers.22
- Eugene Securities also identifies smartphones, PCs and China's largest cloud providers as weak links, although it expects North American cloud providers to absorb the shortfall.5
- Data centers that would consume the memory are being delayed. Morgan Stanley estimates that about 5 GW of capacity originally due online in 2028 has slipped to 2029. It cut its forecast for new data-center capacity growth in 2028 from 21% to 9%, with 20% growth now projected for 2029.9 It nevertheless maintained its outlook for capital spending by major cloud providers. Its conclusion is a delay in bringing facilities online, rather than a broad cancellation of investment.23
- In the same announcement, Apple projected December-quarter revenue growth of 7–10%, which would be a quarterly record.22 Qualcomm's decline also reflects a reduction in Apple-related revenue.24 That points more to component costs squeezing margins than to a collapse in end demand.
- South Korean semiconductor exports totaled $16.6bn in Nov. 1–10, up 331% year-on-year.25 For DRAM, value per unit of weight increased 18% and estimated shipment volume rose 7.5% against the same period of the previous month. The per-weight price also changes with product mix.26
- PC DRAM prices are still rising. TrendForce expects Q4 contract prices to increase 13–18% quarter-on-quarter, though at a slower pace than in Q3. Memory manufacturers are tentatively planning to reduce PC DRAM allocations in 2027.21
- DRAM lead times have shortened from 19 to 18 weeks, while DDR5 32GB spot prices have also declined. Daishin Securities attributes the moves to sales from stockpiled inventory and corrections in lower-density products, rather than clear evidence that the shortage has ended.27
Customer inventories are the first place to look
- In 2019, buyers stopped purchasing despite having the cash. Free cash flow at four major cloud service providers (CSP) increased 29%, yet server DRAM prices fell almost 50% over the year. In January 2019, North American data-center operators held at least five to six weeks of server memory inventory—more than twice normal levels.4
- What is piling up at server vendors today is not memory—at least not yet. DS Securities believes the inventory at Dell and HPE consists of other components waiting for scarce DRAM. In that view, DRAM is the bottleneck, not the component accumulating on shelves.4
- Watch whether weakness spreads from PCs to servers. In DS Securities' estimated DRAM demand mix, PCs account for 7% and servers for 57% (including HBM ).4 PCs are too small a segment to determine the direction of the entire market. Servers matter more. The next warning would be server customers beginning to talk about rising memory inventories.
NVIDIA next week;
contract disclosures in late January
- 11.18 06:20NVIDIA fiscal Q3 2027 results · earnings call at 07:00Data-center revenue and next-quarter guidance
- Late NovemberKorea Customs Service: Nov. 1–20 exportsWhether DRAM export prices and volumes rise together
- 12.1Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy: November trade dataMonthly semiconductor export figures
- Mid-DecemberMicron fiscal Q1 2027 results (expected)Strategic customer agreements and 2027–28 supply outlook
- Late JanuarySamsung Electronics and SK hynix Q4 results and calls (expected)Number of long-term customers, share of capacity under agreement and pricing terms
All times KST · Earnings dates after November are estimates pending company confirmation · For fab milestones from 2027 onward, see Fig. 1.
What could delay or change the conclusion?
Some reports suggest Samsung P5 Phase 1 could begin operating as early as 2027.28 equipment move-in and initial production moving earlier would bring forward the supply increase. The effect on 2028 output would depend on the subsequent ramp-up pace.
HBM accounts for 31% of DRAM wafer usage in 2027, but just 13% of bit shipments output, according to DS Securities.4 If HBM demand weakens, more capacity could eventually be redirected toward conventional DRAM . The switch would not happen overnight: process changes, equipment operations and customer qualification take time.
Weaker demand could prompt customers to seek revised volumes or prices. SK Securities notes that breaching a supply agreement could cost buyers more than their prepayments: it may also impair access to future capacity and contract terms.6
- SK hynix has LTAs with 14 customers covering more than 50% of its 2027–28 capacity.
- Samsung has sold out its 2027 HBM supply at target prices and signed agreements with 10 large customers.
- Yongin Fab 1 targets its first cleanroom for February 2027; Micron ID1's first wafer is planned for mid-2027.
- Conventional DRAM capacity rises around 5% in 2027 (Hana Securities).
- Effective capacity at the four producers rises 20.6% in 2028 (DS Securities).
- Industry DRAM bit shipments grow by a low-20s percentage in both 2027 and 2028 (Micron).
- The contracted share of output from individual new fabs
- The actual price-floor and price-ceiling levels
- Server-memory inventory held by customers, measured in weeks
The market is right about 2028;
demand and contracts determine the damage
The sharpest capacity increase is expected in 2028. But demand will determine whether that turns into oversupply, and contract terms will determine how much earnings withstand a price decline. Three indicators matter more than another fab announcement:
- Orders and customer inventoriesWhether PC procurement cuts spread to servers; what customers say about server-memory stocks; South Korea's 10-day DRAM export price and volume data
- Long-term contract coverageOn the late-January Q4 earnings calls, track long-term supply agreements customer counts, the percentage of capacity covered, contract duration and any disclosed pricing structure.
- The pace after the first waferHow quickly Yongin Fab 1 and Micron ID1 ramp after first wafers, and whether Samsung P5's equipment move-in is brought forward (which would pull supply growth earlier).
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Forecasts and estimates belong to the companies and brokerages cited; calculations and cut-off dates appear in the expandable sections below.
Glossary
- Long-Term Supply Agreement (LTA)
- A multi-year agreement setting out volumes and how prices will be determined. Micron calls its versions strategic customer agreements (SCAs).
- Nominal versus effective capacity
- Nominal capacity measures wafers that can enter production each month. Effective capacity adjusts for the share allocated to HBM and changes in bits per wafer (as estimated by DS Securities).
- Equipment move-in · tool setup · first wafer
- The start of tool deliveries, completion of tool installation and calibration for normal production, and the first wafer produced. Qualification, yields and production ramp-up can still take time after the first wafer.
- Conventional DRAM · blended ASP
- Conventional DRAM excludes HBM. Blended ASP averages pricing across HBM and conventional DRAM.
- order cuts
- Customers reducing or deferring orders already placed.
- take-or-pay
- A contract requiring the customer to pay for committed volumes even if it does not take delivery. Micron says all its strategic customer agreements contain some take-or-pay volume.
- 12-month forward P/E · P/B · BVPS
- Share price ÷ expected earnings per share over the next 12 months · share price ÷ book value per share · book value per share.
Differences across sources and cut-off dates
| Yongin Fab 1 timeline | Company: “full-scale operations next year (2027)” (Oct. 28), first cleanroom in February 2027 (Aug. 7 report on investment disclosure) · Hana Securities: equipment move-in Q1 2027, setup Q1 2028 or later · DS Securities: 40k wafers/month by end-2027 and 80k by end-2028 (nominal) |
| Micron Idaho fabs | Hana Securities: equipment move-in Q1 2027 · Company: first wafer from ID1 in mid-2027 and ID2 in late 2028 (Sep. 30). Tool move-in, first wafer and setup completion are different milestones. |
| Samsung P5 | Hana Securities: equipment move-in Q3 2027 and a 100k-wafer/month investment · DS Securities: substantial production from 2028, reaching 20k wafers/month by end-2028 · The Korea Economic Daily: Phase 1 targeted to begin operating in late 2027 · ETNews: operation could start as early as 2027. A foreign-media claim that tool move-in had been brought forward to Q2 was omitted because Korean sources did not corroborate it. |
| Capacity growth rates | Hana Securities' 2027 global DRAM capacity of 2,187k → 2,511k wafers/month (+15%), and top-three capacity of 1,715k → 1,965k (+14%), are nominal · DS Securities' four-firm estimates of +14.7% in 2027 and +20.6% in 2028 are effective capacity · Micron projects low-20s percentage industry DRAM bit shipment growth in 2027 and 2028. |
| 2027 operating profit forecasts | Samsung: DS Securities ₩632.0tn; Eugene base ₩649.4tn; Eugene bear ₩562.8tn / SK hynix: ₩443.8tn; ₩474.4tn; ₩422.7tn, respectively |
| 12-month forward P/E | SK Securities estimates: 3.1x and 2.6x on Nov. 9, versus 3.3x and 2.9x on Nov. 12. Figures depend on date and forecasts. |
| long-term supply agreements | SK hynix: “secured LTA volumes exceed 50% of total production capacity in 2027 and 2028” (allocation by fab not disclosed) · Samsung: product coverage not disclosed · Micron: contract values refer to projected revenue and may differ from revenue ultimately recognized. |
| NVIDIA | Results scheduled for Nov. 17 at 1:20 p.m. PT (Nov. 18, 6:20 a.m. KST), call at 2 p.m. PT (7:00 a.m. KST) |
| Exports | Semiconductor exports of $16.6bn in Nov. 1–10 (+331.2%; Korea Customs Service) · DRAM price and volume changes calculated by Yuanta Securities from export values and weights |
| Morgan Stanley | This report uses The Korea Economic Daily's Nov. 10 coverage of Morgan Stanley's Nov. 9 research note, and Morgan Stanley's Nov. 11 post for the unchanged capex outlook. Annual capex figures were omitted because sources differed; specific price targets were also omitted. |
| PC inventories | TrendForce (Nov. 11) reports that PC vendors' weeks of DRAM inventory have risen since Q3, without stating the exact number of weeks. Procurement adjustments refer to some vendors, not the entire industry. |
| Data cut-offs | Share prices: regular-session close on Nov. 13 (U.S. prices as of local Nov. 13 close) · Brokerage research: Nov. 9–13 · Company releases: Jul. 30–Nov. 12 · Industry researchers: Jul. 30 and Nov. 11 |
Calculation notes
- M15X: tool move-in Q4 2025 (Hana Securities) → wafer starts Q1 2026 (SK hynix U.S. SEC filing) → 20k wafers/month in Q2 2026 → setup completion Q4 2026 (Hana estimate) = roughly one year from tool move-in to setup completion.
- DS base 2029 ÷ 2027: Samsung 461.7 ÷ 632.0 = 73%; SK hynix 290.3 ÷ 443.8 = 65%; combined 752.0 ÷ 1,075.8 = 70%.
- 2027 operating profit growth: Samsung 632.0 ÷ 387.0 − 1 = +63%; SK hynix 443.8 ÷ 283.6 − 1 = +56% (DS) · 649.4 ÷ 387.3 − 1 = +68%; 474.4 ÷ 285.0 − 1 = +66% (Eugene base).
- Share of 2028 capacity additions: effective capacity at four producers rises 1,846k → 2,226k wafers/month (+380k). Samsung +172k (45%); CXMT +97k (26%); SK hynix +57k (15%); Micron +53k (14%). Company-level totals add to 2,225k due to rounding (1k difference).
- Samsung's 2028 nominal increase of 150k wafers/month = P4 +90k (60%) · Giheung +40k · P5 +20k (DS fab-level estimates) · P4 year-end capacity: 65k ('26) → 180k ('27) → 270k ('28) wafers/month.
- Eugene bear-case P/E: Samsung 2.51x in 2027 → 4.41x in 2028; SK hynix 2.31x → 4.24x (based on share prices when the note was written).
- Bear-case 2028 ÷ 2027: DS Samsung 368.3 ÷ 632.0 = 58%; SK hynix 237.5 ÷ 443.8 = 54%; Eugene Samsung 316.2 ÷ 562.8 = 56%; SK hynix 230.1 ÷ 422.7 = 54%. For 2029 ÷ 2027: DS Samsung 272.2 ÷ 632.0 = 43%; SK hynix 166.3 ÷ 443.8 = 37%.
- DRAM demand mix (DS Securities, reference year unspecified): conventional servers 29%; mobile 21%; AI servers 19%; other 15%; HBM 9%; PCs 7%. Total server-related demand = 29 + 19 + 9 = 57%.
- Estimated capacity outside LTAs: SK hynix 100% − more than 50% = less than 50% (2027–28 capacity); Samsung 100% − 60–70% = 30–40% (based on its 2030 target).
- Share-price changes: Samsung ₩206,000 ÷ ₩362,500 (June 18 closing high) − 1 = −43.2%; ÷ ₩268,000 (Aug. 13) − 1 = −23.1%. SK hynix ₩1,216,000 ÷ ₩2,919,000 (June 22) − 1 = −58.3%; ÷ ₩1,593,000 (Aug. 13) − 1 = −23.7%.
Sources
- NVIDIA, “NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition” (press release), Nov. 12, 2026. investor.nvidia.com
- Yonhap News Agency (republished by The Korea Times U.S.), “Wall Street mixed as Dow inches up 0.1%; NVIDIA falls 2% as slide continues,” Nov. 13, 2026. koreatimes.com
- SK hynix Newsroom, “SK hynix Announces Third-Quarter 2026 Results,” Oct. 28, 2026. news.skhynix.co.kr
- DS Investment & Securities, “70% of Peak Earnings, Even in a Downcycle” (2027 semiconductor outlook), Nov. 10, 2026.
- Eugene Investment & Securities, “Much Is Already Priced In” (semiconductors), Nov. 12, 2026.
- SK Securities, “The Pullback” (semiconductors), Nov. 12, 2026.
- Daum Finance, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix daily prices (Korea Exchange regular-session closes), accessed Nov. 13, 2026. finance.daum.net
- Daishin Securities, “A Blessing in Disguise: Normalization After the Abnormal, and the Road Ahead” (2027 economic and financial market outlook), Nov. 10, 2026.
- The Korea Economic Daily, “The ‘Semiconductor Grim Reaper’ Warns Again as Samsung and SK hynix Price Targets Are Cut” (citing Morgan Stanley's Nov. 9 report), Nov. 10, 2026. hankyung.com
- SK Securities, “Opportunity” (semiconductors), Nov. 9, 2026.
- Hana Securities, “Capacity Cannot Keep Up with AI Demand” (semiconductor industry research), Nov. 12, 2026.
- SK hynix, “Amendment No. 2 to Form F-1” (U.S. SEC filing), Jul. 6, 2026. sec.gov
- The Economist (South Korea), “SK hynix to Invest ₩54tn in Yongin and Cheongju Fabs to Meet AI-Era Memory Demand,” Aug. 7, 2026. economist.co.kr
- Micron, “Q4 FY26 Prepared Remarks” (earnings materials), Sep. 30, 2026. micron.com IR
- The Korea Economic Daily, “Samsung Brings Forward First Operations at Yongin Cluster by Two Years,” Jul. 12, 2026. hankyung.com
- TrendForce, 「Diverging Memory Market Outlook in 2027 as DRAM Supply Remains Tight While NAND Flash Supply Conditions Ease」, 2026.07.30. trendforce.com
- The Elec, “Full Transcript of Samsung Electronics' Q3 2026 Earnings Call,” Oct. 29, 2026. thelec.kr
- MoneyToday, “Samsung Secures Long-Term Agreements with Five Big Tech Firms, Covering 70% of Capacity for at Least Five Years,” Jul. 30, 2026. mt.co.kr
- Economic Review (via Daum News), “Samsung Says Demand for Long-Term Supply Agreements Exceeds What It Can Accommodate” (Q2 earnings call roundup), Jul. 30, 2026. v.daum.net
- IBK Securities, “Rising Growth Forecasts and Rising Noise: How to Think About the 2027 Economy” (Focus on Week), Nov. 13, 2026.
- TrendForce, 「Mounting Finished-Goods Inventories Prompt Some PC OEMs to Adjust Memory Procurement Plans for 2027」, 2026.11.11. trendforce.com
- Hana Securities, “Weekly Earnings Trends at Home and Abroad” (Quant Comment), Nov. 9, 2026.
- Morgan Stanley, 「The Post-Election Opportunities in AI Stocks」, 2026.11.11. morganstanley.com
- Reuters (via The Star), “Qualcomm shares slide as smartphone weakness clouds growth push,” Nov. 5, 2026. thestar.com.my
- Financial News (South Korea), “Exports Hit Record $33.5bn in First Ten Days of November, Up 111.9%, with Semiconductors at 49.7%” (Korea Customs Service release), Nov. 11, 2026. fnnews.com
- Yuanta Securities, “KOSPI After the Selloff: Margin Lending Balances Decline” (Equity Market Weekly, third week of November), Nov. 13, 2026.
- Daishin Securities, “Three Key Investor Questions and Answers” (semiconductors), Nov. 10, 2026.
- ETNews, “Samsung Pyeongtaek Fab 5 Set for More Than ₩10tn in Equipment Orders,” Jul. 15, 2026. etnews.com
Snowshagal Investment Insight No. 34 · Nov. 14, 2026 · Investment decisions remain the responsibility of the investor.