INVESTMENT NOTE NO.162026.10.24FX · The Won's Trade-Weighted ValueFollow-up to No. 10
The Won Has Rallied,
Yet Its Trade-Weighted Value Remains Below Average
Still 9% below its long-run average,
but earnings models have already adjusted their FX assumptions
- Three-month gain
- +11.7%Jun 83.0 → Sep 92.7 · Fastest since 20091
- Versus 1994–present mean
- −9.0%Mean: 101.92
- Q4 USD/KRW average to date
- 1,340.7Oct 1–23 reference rates · Broker assumptions: KRW 1,340–1,360
Figure 1 · BIS won real effective exchange rate (2020=100; monthly average)1
KRW·REER·BIS·BROAD·64·ECONOMIES·1994·2026·KRW·REER·BIS·BROAD·64·ECONOMIES·1994·2026·KRW·REER·BIS·BROAD·64·ECONOMIES·1994·2026·KRW·REER·BIS·BROAD·64·ECONOMIES·1994·2026·KRW·REER·BIS·BROAD·64·ECONOMIES·1994·2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The governor's figures check out. The BIS won REER averaged 101.9 from January 1994 onward; its August reading was 89.9.
- A rapid recovery, but still below the long-run mean. The index rose 11.7% over three months to 92.7 in September, 9% below its post-1994 average but close to its five-year mean.
- Earnings forecasts have already moved with the exchange rate. In two weeks, Hana Securities cut its Q4 USD/KRW assumption for SK hynix from 1,495 to 1,340—virtually matching October's average of 1,340.7.
- Lower FX assumptions do not necessarily mean lower profit forecasts. At SK hynix, stronger DRAM pricing more than offset the currency headwind. The impact is tougher for automakers with a large won-denominated cost base.
- The won strengthened despite foreign equity selling. The Bank of Korea cited improved FX supply and demand from a large current account surplus, alongside interest-rate increases.
Two seemingly conflicting claims are circulating: "The won has strengthened too quickly" and "The won is still weak." Both can be true: the first describes the pace of the rally, the second its level. We need to establish two things: whether the governor's figures hold up, and whether equity analysts' earnings forecasts have caught up with the exchange rate. For the FX effects still embedded in third-quarter earnings, see Investment Note No. 10, “The Bill for a Stronger Won”.2
01REMARKS“An average of 101, around 89 at end-August”:
“An average of 101, around 89 at end-August”:
the BIS data support the claim
At an October 22 press conference, Bank of Korea Governor Hyun Song Shin said that the won was still weak by historical standards, whether measured against the U.S. dollar or on an effective exchange rate basis. With the dollar particularly strong in recent years, he argued, trade-weighted measures provide a better perspective than USD/KRW alone, and cited the BIS indexes.3
DEFINITION
What is an effective exchange rate?
Rather than measuring the won against the dollar alone, an effective exchange rate measures it against a basket of trading-partner currencies, weighted by their importance in trade. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also adjusts for differences in price levels across economies. A higher index value indicates a stronger won on this basis.4
Checking the remarks against the underlying dataBIS broad effective exchange rate (64 economies) · 2020=100 · Monthly averages · As of Oct 23
| Governor's remarks (official BOK subtitles) | BIS underlying data | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| “The average is around 101” | 101.92 (1994.1~2026.9) | ConsistentNo averaging period specified · Mean since 2000: 101.0 |
| “Around 89 at end-August” | 89.88 (August monthly average) | Consistent |
| “Little difference between nominal and real” | September: real 92.73 · nominal 91.99 | Consistent |
| “September's figure isn't out yet” | September 92.73, released Oct 22 | Newer dataStill 9.0% below the long-run mean |
Other points the governor made
- The won does not have to return to its historical average. That average is merely “one reference point”.3
- A 10% appreciation of the won would improve the purchasing power of households in the bottom income quintile by more than 0.4%.3
- At an October 23 parliamentary audit, he acknowledged scope for further appreciation, but declined to name an exchange-rate level when asked about the mid-KRW 1,200s per dollar.5, 6
02LEVELNine percent below the long-run mean—
Nine percent below the long-run mean—
but the benchmark depends on the period
Below its long-run average since May 2021;
rebounding rapidly since June
BIS won REER (broad; 2020=100) · Jan 1994–Sep 2026 · Red shading shows the shortfall from the long-run mean since May 2021
| Reference period | Mean | Sep versus mean |
|---|---|---|
| Since 1994 (full sample) | 101.92 | −9.0% |
| Since 2000 | 100.99 | −8.2% |
| 2010s (2010–19) | 100.68 | −7.9% |
| Since 2010 | 98.51 | −5.9% |
| Past 10 years | 98.48 | −5.8% |
| Past 5 years | 93.49 | −0.8% |
What the numbers mean
- June's reading of 83.0 was the won's weakest since March 2009. Only 61 of the 393 months since 1994 recorded a weaker reading.1
- The BIS cautions that index levels cannot tell us whether a currency is undervalued or overvalued: they show changes relative to the base year.4 Being below a historical mean tells us where the won stands, not how much further it must appreciate.
03PACEUp 17% from June's low,
Up 17% from June's low,
with the rally continuing into October
+11.7%Real: Jun 83.03 → Sep 92.73 · Fastest three-month gain since 2009
+17.0%Nominal, daily: Jun 5 81.03 → Oct 20 94.83
+3.48%Against USD · Sep 17–Oct 16 · No. 1 of 17 currencies
KRW 1,324.6USD/KRW on Oct 23 · Around 1,380 at the August press conference
The rally accelerated in early July,
paused around the September FOMC, then resumed
BIS won nominal effective exchange rate (NEER; broad; 2020=100) · Daily, Jan 1–Oct 20, 2026 · Dotted lines mark BOK rate hikes and the September FOMC
How the rally unfolded
- Early-July acceleration: The daily NEER rose 5.0% between July 1 and the first policy-rate hike on July 16, then gained another 6.2% between the July 16 and August 27 hikes.7, 8
- Brief pullback around the September FOMC: The index slipped from 92.6 on September 14 to 90.2 on September 18 before recovering.
- Exceptional speed: Since 1994, only the rebounds following the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis produced faster three-month gains. This time, there was no comparable shock.1 The governor characterized the unusually high USD/KRW rate in early summer as an aberration and its rapid decline as a reversal of that distortion.3
The won outperformed all 16 peers even as the dollar strengthened
Change against USD, Sep 17–Oct 16 · New York noon rates (U.S. Federal Reserve H.10) · Broad dollar index: +1.72% over the same period
04EARNINGS FX
Q4 exchange-rate assumptions have nearly caught up with reality
Even if today's exchange rate persists through year-end, the gap versus those embedded in earnings forecasts is only 1–2%.
In Q3, modeled exchange rates were 5–7% above actuals;
in Q4, the gap is now minimal
Daily USD/KRW reference rates (BOK ECOS) · Jul 1–Oct 23, 2026 · Shaded areas show broker FX-assumption ranges
The forecasts have adjusted. On October 6, Hana Securities assumed USD/KRW at 1,495 for SK hynix in Q4; by October 19 it had cut that figure to 1,340—a KRW 155, or 10.4%, reduction in just 13 days.12, 14 That makes it difficult to argue that the recent won appreciation has yet to be reflected in earnings estimates.
| Broker Q4 assumption | Q4 to date (1,340.7) | Oct 23 rate held (1,328.5) | Remainder at 1,300 (1,309.8) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,340 · Hana / SK hynix | +0.1% | −0.9% | −2.3% |
| 1,355 · Hana / house view | −1.1% | −2.0% | −3.3% |
| 1,360 · Daishin / Hyundai Motor | −1.4% | −2.3% | −3.7% |
For the Q4 deviation to exceed 5%, as it did in Q3, the average over the final two months would need to fall to roughly KRW 1,250–1,280 per dollar.
These are not like-for-like comparisons. For Q3, the completed quarter is measured against earlier assumptions; for Q4, updated assumptions are being compared with a quarter still in progress. Moreover, the sample comprises two Hana Securities forecasts and one from Daishin Securities—not a marketwide consensus.
| Sector | Impact | Key figures |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors SK hynix | Higher DRAM prices offset the FX headwind | 2027 USD/KRW assumption: 1,465 → 1,340; operating-profit estimate: KRW 403tn → 405tn (Hana Securities)12, 14, 16 |
| Automakers Hyundai Motor · Kia | More exposed, with a large share of costs denominated in won | Each company's annual operating profit moves by about KRW 2.5tn for a 10% year-on-year change in average USD/KRW (Daishin Securities)13 |
| Food & beverages Imported inputs | Lower imported-input costs are a tailwind | For every KRW 100 fall in USD/KRW, estimated annual operating-profit uplift: Lotte Wellfood +KRW 17bn (6.2%); Lotte Chilsung +KRW 12bn (4.5%); Binggrae +KRW 9bn (4.6%); Daesang +KRW 11bn (4.5%) (Hana Securities)17 |
Applying Daishin Securities' sensitivity mechanically to Hyundai Motor, a Q4 average 2.3% below its FX assumption would imply a quarterly operating-profit headwind of about KRW 140bn. This simply prorates an annual sensitivity evenly across four quarters; it is not a forecast of Hyundai's actual Q4 earnings decline.13
All figures in the table are broker estimates based on their own assumptions. Actual outcomes depend on selling prices, input costs and FX hedging.
05FOREIGN FLOWS & THE WON
Why the won can strengthen even as foreign investors sell Korean stocks
Equities are only one channel through which dollars flow into and out of Korea. This year, a substantial current account surplus has helped improve the supply-demand balance in the FX market.
Forces supporting the won
- Current account surplus: USD 279.2bn in January–August, roughly four times the year-earlier figure. The governor expects the full-year surplus to exceed the BOK's August projection of USD 450bn.3, 18
- BOK's assessment: Improved FX supply and demand, supported by the current account surplus, and a shift toward tighter monetary policy (rate hikes) have helped strengthen the won.3
- Exporter dollar selling: Exporters supplied substantial dollar-selling orders early on October 20, according to Eugene Investment & Securities.10
Forces weighing on the won
- Foreign equity outflows: Foreign investors have sold a net KRW 199tn of KOSPI-listed shares this year, including KRW 173tn in SK hynix and Samsung Electronics alone.19
- Korean investment overseas: In August, residents increased their foreign portfolio securities holdings by USD 16.6bn and foreign direct investment by USD 6.2bn.18, 20
But not every won received from selling Korean shares is exchanged for dollars, just as not every dollar of current account surplus is sold in the onshore FX market. These totals cannot simply be netted to determine which force prevailed. iM Securities described the disconnect as two markets seeing different stories: equity investors focused on AI-related concerns, while FX traders priced in the continuing surplus.21
Oct 19–23:
foreign flows swung from buying to selling
Foreign investor net purchases on the KOSPI (KRX Main Board) · Daily, Oct 19–23 · KRX figures as reported by news outlets
- Over the five sessions, net selling totaled KRW 344.3bn. Selling pressure eased markedly from the Oct 1–16 period (net outflows of KRW 17.7tn over 10 sessions), but calling this a sustained turn to net buying would be premature.
- Foreigners ended an 18-session selling streak in SK hynix (a cumulative KRW 16.2tn) with net purchases on October 21; the stock ranked second in foreign net buying again on October 22.28, 29, 30
- On October 23, foreign investors sold nearly KRW 1tn of shares again.26
06INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONYen, won and Taiwan dollar below their own averages;
Yen, won and Taiwan dollar below their own averages;
U.S. dollar, Singapore dollar and yuan above
On this measure, the won sits in roughly the same position as the Taiwan dollar and Malaysian ringgit.
Japan's REER is 43% below its historical mean;
the U.S. dollar's is 13% above
BIS broad REER · Sep 2026 readings relative to each economy's own Jan 1994–Sep 2026 average (%)
- Even within Asia, Singapore's dollar (+16%) and China's yuan (+10%) stand above their own historical means. The won's weakness cannot be attributed to dollar strength alone.
- These comparisons show where each currency stands relative to its own history. Japan's −43% reading does not mean the yen is “far more undervalued” than the won.
COUNTERARGUMENTPOTENTIAL HEADWINDS
Three forces that could slow the won's appreciation
CAPITAL FLOWS
Surplus proceeds can leave Korea again
Korean residents' overseas investment rose by USD 22.8bn in August alone. Continued overseas buying by households and pension funds could reduce the share of surplus proceeds converted into won.18, 20
SEASONALITY
Year-end dividend payments create dollar demand
The BOK identified substantial year-end dividend payments as a downside risk to the current account surplus.18
DOLLAR & OIL
U.S. inflation and oil prices are rising
October's flash U.S. PMI showed companies raising their selling prices at the fastest pace since August 2022.31 Brent crude settled at USD 116.72 a barrel on October 23.32 Renewed U.S. inflation concerns could support the dollar, while persistently expensive oil would raise Korea's import bill.
None of these factors proves that the won's rally is over. If appreciation slows, the gap between Q4's realized average exchange rate and the FX assumptions in earnings models could narrow further.
07WHAT TO WATCH
Separate currency effects from pricing power in earnings releases
- 10.28~29Korea time
- Oct 29 · early hoursKorea time
U.S. FOMC meeting (Oct 27–28)
Whether the Fed raises rates again, and how the dollar responds.35
- 10.29 · 11.19BIS release
BIS daily nominal index;
October monthly real indexThe Oct 29 release covers daily observations through Oct 26; the Nov 19 release will provide October monthly averages.4
- OngoingBusiness days
Q4-to-date average USD/KRW
Watch whether the running average falls below brokers' 1,340–1,360 assumptions.11
- 11.26Korea morning
BOK Monetary Policy Board meeting
Watch the next rate decision and how the stronger won figures in inflation projections.8
KNOWNCONFIRMED FACTS
- Sep won REER: 92.73; mean since 1994: 101.92; five-year mean: 93.49
- Average USD/KRW: Q3 1,423.4; Oct 1–23 1,340.7
- Foreign net selling of KOSPI stocks: KRW 199.1tn; Jan–Aug current account surplus: USD 279.2bn
ESTIMATEFORECASTS & ESTIMATES
- Broker Q4 USD/KRW assumptions: 1,340–1,360
- SK hynix 2027 operating-profit estimate: KRW 403tn → 405tn (Hana Securities)
- Hyundai Motor and Kia: KRW 2.5tn annual operating-profit sensitivity each to a 10% FX move (Daishin Securities)
UNKNOWNOPEN QUESTIONS
- Will the won move closer to its longer-run REER average?
- How much FX impact will companies disclose in Q3 earnings?
- Where will the dollar and foreign equity flows go after the FOMC?
For investors, the FX rate embedded in earnings forecasts matters more than the won's position relative to a historical mean. The broker models reviewed here have already moved close to today's exchange rate. If USD/KRW stays near 1,300 for an extended period, the deviation between the Q4 average and those assumptions could widen to 2–4%. At that point, product pricing, input costs and currency hedges—not FX alone—will distinguish the earnings winners from the losers.
An interpretation of public statistics and brokerage research · Source dates and calculation methods appear below
APPENDIX · A mechanical USD/KRW equivalent for an effective-rate move
This is neither a forecast nor a target. The governor also declined to endorse a specific level when asked about USD/KRW in the mid-1,200s on October 23.5
For the daily nominal effective exchange rate to rise from 94.83 (Oct 20) to its post-1994 nominal mean of 101.99, the won would need to appreciate another 7.6% against its trading-partner currency basket. If every other currency's USD exchange rate were held fixed, that would translate mechanically from USD/KRW 1,328.1 (Oct 20 closing rate) to roughly 1,235.7, 11 By the same arithmetic, USD/KRW 1,340 corresponds to an illustrative NEER of about 94.0, and 1,360 to about 92.6. In reality, the dollar and other trading-partner currencies move too. These conversions are only intended to convey the order of magnitude.
TERMS · GLOSSARY
- Effective exchange rate
- A trade-weighted index of the won's value against a basket of trading-partner currencies, not just USD. A higher reading means a stronger won.
- Nominal vs. real
- The nominal index captures exchange rates; the real index also adjusts for relative inflation. The BIS publishes the real measure monthly and the nominal measure both daily and monthly.
- BIS broad index
- The Bank for International Settlements' effective exchange rate series covering 64 economies, with 2020=100. Trade weights are updated on a rolling three-year basis.
- Market-average reference rate
- The published USD/KRW rate based on the weighted average of transactions in Seoul's FX market on the preceding business day. This note calculates quarterly averages using the BOK ECOS market-average reference-rate series.
- Bottom income quintile
- The lowest-income 20% of households when households are divided into five equally sized groups by income.
- Current account balance
- The balance of trade in goods and services plus cross-border income, including interest and dividends. A surplus can improve FX supply conditions, but is not equivalent, dollar for dollar, to onshore currency conversion or net dollar inflows.
- Exporter dollar offers (“nego” flows)
- Offers to sell dollars in the FX market by exporters converting their dollar receipts into won.
- H.10
- New York noon FX rates published by the U.S. Federal Reserve, useful for comparing multiple currencies at a common observation time.
- PMI
- A business survey-based economic activity indicator; a reading above 50 signals expansion.
SOURCES · METHODOLOGY · AS-OF DATES
Published October 24, 2026 · Information cutoff Early October 24, 2026 (KST) · BIS monthly REER through September (released Oct 22) and daily NEER through Oct 20 · New York noon FX rates through Oct 16 · USD/KRW and Korean equities through Oct 23 · U.S. economic releases dated Oct 23 (U.S. time), including Brent crude's settlement price · Current account data through August
| Data cutoff | BIS effective exchange rates retrieved Oct 23 and rechecked Oct 24 (monthly REER through September; daily NEER through Oct 20) · BOK governor's press conference Oct 22 · National Assembly audit Oct 23 · H.10 noon FX rates for Sep 17 and Oct 16 · Market-average reference rates Jul 1–Oct 23 · Foreign net selling Jan 2–Oct 12 (Korea Herald, Oct 13), Oct 1–16 (NewsPim, Oct 19), and daily Oct 19–23 · August balance of payments (released by the BOK Oct 8) |
|---|---|
| Calculation methods | Averages = unweighted arithmetic means of monthly REER readings (Jan 1994–Sep 2026: 393 months, 101.92; Jan 2000 onward: 100.99; Jan 2010–Dec 2019: 100.68; Jan 2010 onward: 98.51; Oct 2016 onward: 98.48; Oct 2021 onward: 93.49; nominal Jan 1994 onward: 101.99). Sep 92.73 / 101.92 − 1 = −9.0%. Jun 83.03 → Sep 92.73 = +11.7% (larger three-month gains: Apr 1998 +22.2%, May 1998 +16.6%, May 2009 +13.5%, Jan 1999 +12.7%). Months below 92.73: 61. Daily NEER 81.03 → 94.83 = +17.0%; 94.83 / 101.99 − 1 = −7.0%. H.10 returns = (Sep 17 rate / Oct 16 rate) − 1 for currencies quoted per USD; the reciprocal convention applies for EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD. Oct 19–23 foreign net purchases = 624.7 − 530.0 + 952.9 − 399.1 − 992.8 = −KRW 344.3bn. USD/KRW reference-rate average: Q3 1,423.38 (62 business days); Oct 1–23 1,340.69 (15 business days). Q4 “flat” = (Oct 1–23 cumulative rates + 1,324.6 × 47) / 62 = 1,328.5; remainder at 1,300 produces 1,309.8 (47 remaining business days assumed). To miss an FX assumption by 5%, the required remaining-period average is 1,251 if the assumption is 1,340, or 1,277 if it is 1,360. Hyundai sensitivity: KRW 2.5tn × (2.3% / 10%) / 4 ≈ KRW 144bn (a simple conversion of year-on-year annual sensitivity into four equal quarters, a little over 5% of quarterly operating profit of approximately KRW 2.6tn). SK hynix Q4 assumption: 1,495 → 1,340 = −155 (−10.4%); 2027 change: 1,340 / 1,465 − 1 = −8.5%; 2027 operating-profit estimate raised KRW 1.7tn (+0.42%). Illustrative USD/KRW–NEER conversion: 94.83 × 1,328.1 / assumed USD/KRW. |
| Differences across sources | The governor's remarks were checked against the BOK press-conference video subtitles; broker recaps were secondary sources. His “end-August” figure was compared with the August monthly average. The BIS release calendar lists Oct 19 as the latest observation in the Oct 22 daily release, whereas the API includes an Oct 20 reading. Hana's Q3 SK hynix assumption of 1,423 is close to the reference-rate Q3 mean (1,423.4); Hana's house-view Q3 figure of 1,419 is close to the mean closing rate (1,418.6). The 1,422 Q3 average cited in Investment Note No. 10 and Daishin Securities reflects a different data source. Media reports put foreign net selling on Oct 23 between KRW 981.7bn and KRW 992.8bn. iM Securities' “KRW 200tn cumulative since January last year” covers a different period from the KRX's “KRW 199tn this year.” iM's summary cites a 4% purchasing-power gain for the bottom quintile, versus 0.4% in the official video subtitles. |
| Limits of interpretation | Q4 scenarios are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts. The reviewed brokerage projections comprise two from Hana Securities and one from Daishin Securities, not a marketwide consensus. Comparisons with historical REER averages do not establish whether currencies are fairly valued. |
- BIS, “Effective exchange rates,” WS_EER dataset · Monthly broad (64-economy) real (M.R.B) and nominal (M.N.B) series · 2020=100 · Retrieved Oct 23, 2026 · Korea REER: Jun 83.03, Jul 85.44, Aug 89.88, Sep 92.73; nominal: Aug 89.15, Sep 91.99 · History from Jan 1994 · Selected Sep REER observations: Japan 66.61, Taiwan 97.09, U.S. 107.11, euro area 103.27, China 91.91 · data.bis.org · API (Korea REER)
- Snowshagal Investment Note No. 10, “The Bill for a Stronger Won” · Oct 9, 2026 · FX effects in Q3 earnings · snowshagal.com
- Bank of Korea, “Governor's Press Conference on the Monetary Policy Decision (October 2026),” official video subtitles · Oct 22, 2026 · Opening remarks: full-year current account surplus expected to exceed the August forecast of USD 450bn; USD/KRW declined substantially despite dollar strength, helped by improved FX supply and demand from the large surplus and a shift in monetary-policy stance. Q&A: the unusually high USD/KRW rate in early summer described as an “abnormal situation”; around 1,380 at the August conference versus around 1,325 on Oct 22; the won still weak by past standards on both bilateral USD/KRW and effective exchange rate measures; effective rates important in light of dollar strength over recent years; BIS average “around 101”; “September figures are not available yet”; end-August “around 89”; little difference between nominal and real; no need to return to the historical average; mean as “one reference point”; 10% appreciation improves purchasing power of bottom-quintile households by “more than 0.4%” · bok.or.kr
- BIS Data Portal, “Effective exchange rates,” overview, FAQ and release calendar (accessed Oct 23) · REER adjusts NEER for relative consumer prices; time-varying manufacturing-trade weights updated every three years; index 2020=100 · FAQ, “Does the value below/above 100 imply undervaluation/overvaluation?”: “The index levels do not provide any information concerning the over- or undervaluation of a given currency. They show the change compared with the base year.” · Calendar: September monthly nominal and real released Oct 22, 2026; daily nominal through Oct 26 due Oct 29; October monthly nominal and real due Nov 19 · FAQ · Release calendar
- Asia Economy, “2026 National Assembly Audit: Hyun Song Shin Says Further Won Appreciation Would Better Support Domestic Demand” · Oct 23, 2026 · National Assembly audit of the BOK · Governor saw room for further won appreciation on an effective-rate basis; declined to endorse mid-1,200s USD/KRW; described early-year won as unusually undervalued and the subsequent appreciation as a reversal · asiae.co.kr
- Dailian, “2026 National Assembly Audit: Hyun Song Shin Says Won Undervaluation Is Reversing, with Scope for Further Gains” · Oct 23, 2026 · dailian.co.kr
- BIS WS_EER daily broad nominal series (D.N.B.KR) · Retrieved Oct 23 and rechecked Oct 24, 2026 · BIS calendar lists Oct 19 as the cutoff for the Oct 22 release; API includes Oct 20 (94.83; status A) · Jun 5: 81.03 (year low); Sep 16: 91.21; Sep 17: 90.42; Oct 20: 94.83 · API (Korea daily NEER)
- Snowshagal Investment Note No. 13, “Will the BOK Keep Hiking as Stocks Fall?” · Oct 20, 2026 · BOK policy rate hiked 2.50% → 2.75% on Jul 16 and 2.75% → 3.00% on Aug 27 · snowshagal.com
- U.S. Federal Reserve H.10, “Foreign Exchange Rates” (FRED: DEXKOUS, DEXJPUS, DEXUSEU, DEXUSUK, DEXCHUS, DEXCAUS, DEXUSAL, DEXSZUS, DEXTAUS, DEXINUS, DEXSIUS, DEXMXUS, DEXBZUS, DEXTHUS, DEXSDUS, DEXNOUS, DEXUSNZ; broad dollar index DTWEXBGS) · New York noon observations on Sep 17 and Oct 16, 2026 · USD/KRW 1,380.46 → 1,334.03; broad dollar index 119.3489 → 121.4048 · fred.stlouisfed.org
- Eugene Investment & Securities, Kim Ji-na and Cha Young-hoo, “Eugene's FICC Update” · Oct 21, 2026 · Won appreciated 3.7% against USD since the September FOMC despite a 1.4% rise in the dollar index, the strongest of major currencies; current account surplus projected near 20% of GDP; foreigners sold a net KRW 11.4tn of KOSPI shares the preceding week; substantial exporter dollar selling at the Oct 20 open; USD/KRW 1,328.10 ·
- Bank of Korea ECOS: 731Y001 USD/KRW (market-average reference rate); 731Y003 USD/KRW (3:30 p.m. close) · Daily Jul 1–Oct 23, 2026 · Retrieved Oct 23 · Reference rate: Sep 30 1,358.4, Oct 23 1,324.6; closing rate: Oct 20 1,328.1, Oct 22 1,324.2, Oct 23 1,324.6 · ecos.bok.or.kr
- Hana Securities, Kim Rok-ho, “Focus on Industry Fundamentals, Not Whether Earnings Beat” (Semiconductors and Materials/Components/Equipment Weekly) · Oct 6, 2026 · SK hynix average USD/KRW assumptions: Q3 2026F 1,500; Q4 2026F 1,495; 2027F 1,465 · 2027F operating profit KRW 403.417tn · Estimate cuts attributed entirely to FX ·
- Daishin Securities, Kim Gwi-yeon, “Automobiles/Batteries: October 2026 Monthly Review & Q3 2026 Preview—The Core Business Remains Key” · Oct 7, 2026 · Q3 2026 average USD/KRW 1,422, down from the prior 1,520 assumption · Hyundai Motor Q4 2026 assumption 1,360 · “For a 10% year-on-year move in average USD/KRW, annual operating profit at Hyundai Motor and Kia each changes by KRW 2.5tn” · Greater earnings exposure for automakers; parts suppliers less exposed because of local production and delivery structures · Hyundai Motor 2026E operating profit KRW 10.449tn ·
- Hana Securities, Kim Rok-ho, “DRAM Price Outlook Improves Amid Heightened Investor Fear” (Semiconductors and Materials/Components/Equipment Weekly) · Oct 19, 2026 · SK hynix average USD/KRW assumptions: Q1 2026 1,465; Q2 1,502; Q3 2026F 1,423; Q4 2026F 1,340; full-year 2026F 1,433; 2027F 1,340 · Operating-profit estimates: 2026F KRW 258.778tn; 2027F KRW 405.117tn ·
- Hana Securities, Shim Eun-ju, “What a Stronger Won Means—and Who Benefits” (Food/Beverage/Tobacco Sector Research) · Oct 21, 2026 · Q4 2026 USD/KRW forecast 1,355, followed by Q1–Q4 2027 forecasts of 1,340, 1,365, 1,380, and 1,370; 2026F 1,435, 2027F 1,364 (Bloomberg/Hana Securities) · If today's FX rate persists, year-on-year USD/KRW changes in Q4 2026/Q1 2027/Q2 2027 would be −7%/−9%/−11% ·
- Korea Economic Daily, “Hana Lifts 2027 SK hynix Operating-Profit Forecast to KRW 405tn” · Oct 13, 2026 · Analyst Kim Rok-ho revised the 2027 USD/KRW assumption from 1,465 to 1,340 and operating profit from KRW 403tn to 405tn, while adopting more favorable DRAM price assumptions · hankyung.com
- Hana Securities, Shim Eun-ju, “Reviewing Beneficiaries of Won Appreciation” (Food/Beverage/Tobacco Weekly) · Oct 19, 2026 · Companies with export shares of 40% or less are expected to benefit. For a KRW 100 decline in USD/KRW, annual operating-profit uplift: Lotte Wellfood KRW 17bn (6.2%); Lotte Chilsung KRW 12bn (4.5%); Binggrae KRW 9bn (4.6%); Daesang KRW 11bn (4.5%) ·
- MoneyToday, “Record Current Account Surplus: BOK Says USD 450bn Possible This Year” · Oct 8, 2026 · BOK preliminary August balance of payments: current account surplus USD 46.11bn; Jan–Aug USD 279.2bn (vs. USD 69.67bn a year earlier); full-year forecast USD 450bn; dividend payments to foreign shareholders narrowed the primary-income surplus in August; substantial year-end dividends pose a downside risk (BOK official Yoo Seong-wook) · mt.co.kr
- The Herald Business, “Foreigners Sell Nearly KRW 200tn of KOSPI Shares This Year; KRW 173tn in Samsung and SK hynix Alone” · Oct 13, 2026 · KRX · Foreigners sold a net KRW 199.1045tn of KOSPI shares Jan 2–Oct 12, excluding ETFs; SK hynix KRW 87.144tn and Samsung Electronics KRW 86.057tn; net buying of Korean-listed ETFs KRW 9.6595tn · heraldcorp.com
- Financial Today and Seoul Economic Daily, “Korea's August Current Account Surplus of USD 46.1bn Is Second-Highest on Record” · Oct 8, 2026 · August financial-account net assets rose USD 40.23bn; residents increased foreign portfolio securities by USD 16.6bn and FDI by USD 6.22bn; foreign investment in Korean securities fell USD 4.85bn · ftoday.co.kr
- iM Securities, Park Sang-hyun, “USD/KRW and the KOSPI Are Reading Different Scripts” (Economy Brief) · Oct 21, 2026 · Net foreign selling of Korean shares exceeds KRW 200tn cumulatively since January 2025 (different date window); equity market focused on AI-cycle worries while FX market reflected an ongoing current account surplus ·
- NewsPim, “Foreign Investors Sell KRW 17tn of KOSPI Stocks in October, 80% Concentrated in Samsung and SK hynix” · Oct 19, 2026 · KRX · Oct 1–16 foreign net selling KRW 17.716tn; SK hynix KRW 9.4391tn, Samsung Electronics KRW 4.7286tn · Oct 19 foreign net buying KRW 624.7bn · newspim.com
- MoneyToday, “KOSPI Closes Down 3.73% at 5,552.74 on Foreign and Institutional Selling” · Oct 20, 2026 · Foreigners −KRW 530bn, institutions −KRW 1.0048tn, retail +KRW 898.1bn · mt.co.kr
- NewsPim, “Closing Bell: KOSPI Gains 3.3% on Semiconductor Strength; Buy-Side Trading Curb Triggered” · Oct 21, 2026 · KOSPI 5,735.66 (+3.29%); foreigners +KRW 952.9bn; USD/KRW 1,325.2 · newspim.com
- NewsPim, “Closing Bell: KOSPI and KOSDAQ Both Slide Over 3% Amid Foreign Selling” · Oct 22, 2026 · KOSPI 5,533.77 (−3.52%); foreigners −KRW 399.1bn, institutions −KRW 683.4bn, retail +KRW 1.0364tn; USD/KRW 1,324.2 (day's spot-market close) · newspim.com
- AlphaBiz, “Closing Bell: KOSPI Up 0.30% as SK hynix Recovers from Intraday Plunge” · Oct 23, 2026 · KOSPI 5,550.30 (+0.30%); foreigners −KRW 992.8bn, institutions +KRW 872.3bn, retail +KRW 52.7bn; SK hynix +4.42% · alphabiz.co.kr
- EToday, “FX Close: USD/KRW Rises for First Time in Six Sessions on Dollar Strength and Suspected Pension-Fund Activity” · Oct 23, 2026 · USD/KRW 1,324.6 (+KRW 0.4 at 3:30 p.m.); foreign net selling of KOSPI shares KRW 981.686bn · etoday.co.kr
- Kiwoom Securities, Han Ji-young, “Market Headwinds Are Unwinding Gradually: Flows and Sentiment” · Oct 21, 2026 · Foreign investors had sold SK hynix for 18 straight sessions, totaling KRW 16.2tn; starting date not specified ·
- Kiwoom Securities, Han Ji-young, “Even Strong Results Leave Investors Second-Guessing the Market” · Oct 22, 2026 · Foreigners bought Samsung Electronics for four straight sessions; returned to net buying in SK hynix after 19 sessions ·
- Pinpoint News, “KRX Foreign Flows: Samsung E&AA Leads Buying, While Samsung Electronics and Samsung SDI Face Selling” · Oct 22, 2026 · KRX · SK hynix ranked second in foreign net buying; Samsung Electronics first in net selling · pinpointnews.co.kr
- S&P Global 「S&P Global, “S&P Global Flash US PMI” · Oct 23, 2026, 13:45 UTC · Composite Output Index 57.6 (Sep 58.4); Services Business Activity Index 57.9 (58.8); Manufacturing Output Index 55.8 (56.2); Manufacturing PMI 56.0 (55.9; 53-month high); “selling prices rise at sharpest rate since August 2022”; survey Oct 9–22 · pmi.spglobal.com
- Yahoo Finance 「Stock market today: Dow sinks 600 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq Drop to Cap a Volatile Week, Oil Prices Rise” · Oct 23, 2026 close · December Brent settlement USD 116.72/bbl; WTI approximately USD 103.57/bbl (+4.12%); Dow −652.82 points (−1.23%); 10-year U.S. Treasury yield around 4.99% · Intraday Brent USD 116.35/bbl (+2.81%; Reuters, 2:06 p.m. EDT) · finance.yahoo.com
- SK hynix Form 6-K (filed with the U.S. SEC) · Oct 14, 2026 · Q3 2026 earnings conference call scheduled for Oct 28 at 9 a.m. Seoul time · sec.gov
- Samsung Electronics Investor Relations events calendar · Q3 2026 earnings conference call scheduled for Oct 29 at 10 a.m. · samsung.com
- U.S. Federal Reserve, “Meeting Calendars and Information” · 2026 FOMC meetings Oct 27–28 and Dec 8–9 · federalreserve.gov