Snowshagal · INVESTMENT NOTE
NO.08 · 2026.10.04
Snowshagal ReportUS MIDTERMS · SEASONALITY · RATES
INVESTMENT NOTENO.082026.10.04
U.S. MIDTERMS D-30 · NOV. 3 (U.S. TIME)

The Election Calendar Matters LessWatch the Rate Calendar

Stocks often rise after the midterms. Should we trust that seasonal pattern this year?

A six-election average · Same hiking cycle, opposite outcomes · This year’s starting point · A framework for reading the next four weeks

Election calendar Average-path trough window Nov. 3 election Rate calendar 10.14U.S. CPI 10.22BOK MPC 10.28FOMC 10.511.4
Schematic · Event dates are actual. The “average-path trough window” is this note’s calculation, mapping Kiwoom’s average trough 18–19 trading days before the election onto this year’s calendar. It is not a forecast of this year’s low.1, 2
Sample since 2002
6cases
S&P 500 rose in 5 of 6 cases from end-September to year-end2, 3
2018 · End-Sep. to year-end
−14.0%
Only decline in six cases · Fed hiking cycle2, 3, 4
2022 · Same hiking cycle
+7.1%
Inflation cooled · Fed signaled a slower pace2, 3, 5, 6
Key decision date
10.28FOMC
Before that: Oct. 14 U.S. September CPI7, 8

The seasonal pattern also appears in longer histories, but the recent average used to compare with 2026 contains only six elections · 2018 and 2022 were both hiking-cycle years yet finished in opposite directions · This year’s path is more likely to be decided first by rates and semiconductor earnings than by Election Day

Published Oct. 4, 2026 · Information cutoff: Oct. 3, 2026 KST · Includes U.S. closes through Oct. 2

snowshagal.com

AT A GLANCE

QUESTION
Stocks often rise after the midterms. Should we trust that pattern this year?
SAMPLE
Six midterm elections since 2002 · S&P 500 rose in 5 of 6 from end-September to year-end, averaging +3.6% · In data since 1937, the S&P 500 averaged +6.6% in Q4 of midterm years (J.P. Morgan AM)2, 3, 9
EXCEPTION
2018 −14.0% · Excluding 2018, the other five cases averaged +7.1%2, 3
COUNTEREXAMPLE
2022 was also a hiking-cycle year, yet the S&P 500 gained +7.1% from end-September to year-end · Rate expectations fell after inflation cooled and the Fed signaled a slower pace of hikes2, 5, 6, 10
2026
Just after a September rate hike · At end-September, the S&P 500 was +11.8% YTD and the KOSPI +62.3%2, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
TEST
10/14 CPI → 10/28 FOMC · Samsung Electronics 3Q → 2027 earnings outlook7, 8, 16
PAGE 01The six-election average
Six recent data points

Since 2002,
the average has only six observations

U.S. midterm elections, 2002–2022 · S&P 500 from end-September entry to year-end · Year-end returns calculated in this note from Hana Securities’ chart

According to Hana Securities, an end-September entry was followed by a gain through year-end in 5 of 6 cases, with an average return of +3.6% · One year after Election Day, all six cases were positive3

HOW TO READ IT
83% here does not mean 83 out of hundreds. It means 5 out of 6. Change the outcome of a single year and the hit rate moves by about 17 percentage points (1/6) · The average is also heavily influenced by any one year2
WHAT ABOUT A LONGER SAMPLE?
+6.6%Data since 1937 · Average S&P 500 Q4 return in midterm years · J.P. Morgan AM9
+3.6%Six elections since 2002 · S&P 500 · Average over the same end-Sep.–year-end window (this note’s calculation)2, 3

The seasonality is not confined to the six most recent elections. But the long-run average does not control for rates, growth or earnings either. The recent six-election sample used by Hana and Kiwoom Securities—and used here to compare with 2026—is highly sensitive to a single year: excluding 2018, the average is +7.1%.2

J.P. Morgan uses the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Its methodology is not identical to the six-election return series in this note, so the longer sample is used only to confirm that the seasonal tendency exists.

S&P 500 · End-September to year-end · Midterm years%
+7.8 +6.2 +10.2 +4.3 −14.0 +7.1 200220062010201420182022 Hiking cycleHiking cycle
Six-case average +3.6% · Median +6.7% · Average ex-2018 +7.1%
This note compounds the October and November–December returns shown in Hana Securities’ Figure 3. The six-case average matches Hana’s stated figure. Hiking-cycle labels follow Kiwoom Securities’ classification.1, 2, 3
2002
Republican · Bush
End-Sep. YTD
−29.0%
End-Sep. to year-end
+7.8%
2006
Republican · Bush
End-Sep. YTD
+7.0%
End-Sep. to year-end
+6.2%
2010
Democrat · Obama
End-Sep. YTD
+2.3%
End-Sep. to year-end
+10.2%
2014
Democrat · Obama
End-Sep. YTD
+6.7%
End-Sep. to year-end
+4.3%
2018
Republican · TrumpHiking cycle
End-Sep. YTD
+9.0%
End-Sep. to year-end
−14.0%
2022
Democrat · BidenHiking cycle
End-Sep. YTD
−24.8%
End-Sep. to year-end
+7.1%

End-September YTD figures are from Hana’s chart; end-September-to-year-end returns are calculated in this note. Party refers to the sitting president’s party.2, 3

WHAT ABOUT 6 AND 12 MONTHS AFTER THE ELECTION?

Kiwoom averages · KOSPI: +6.3% at six months (up in 5 of 6), +10.5% at 12 months (up in 5) · S&P 500: +5.6% at six months (up in 5), +7.9% at 12 months (up in all 6)1 · Omitted from the main discussion because these horizons extend beyond this note’s year-end question

COUNTERPOINT · THE SEASONALITY HAS RECURRED

The record itself is real: 5 of 6 gains from end-September to year-end, and 6 of 6 gains one year after the election3 · This note is not disputing the existence of seasonality; it is questioning how much weight to place on a six-election recent average

PAGE 022018 · 2022
Same hiking label, opposite outcome

Same hiking cycle,
opposite outcomes

S&P 500 · End-September to year-end · 2018 −14.0% · 2022 +7.1%

Both years occurred while the Fed was raising rates · The outcomes were opposite · The label “hiking cycle” does not explain the difference2, 3, 4, 6

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield · End-September → year-end% · U.S. Treasury par yield
3.03.54.0 2018S&P −14.0% 2022S&P +7.1% Election Election 3.05 11/8 3.24 2.69 3.83 10/24 4.25 11/10 3.82 CPI release 3.88 End-Sep.Year-endEnd-Sep.Year-end
Dots mark end-September, the Q4 high and year-end; 2022 also marks the October CPI release date. Dashed lines mark Election Day (Nov. 6, 2018; Nov. 8, 2022). Both years use the same scale.10, 18
2018S&P500 −14.0%
FED
Sep. 26: 2.00–2.25% · Dec. 19: 2.25–2.50% · The December statement still pointed to further gradual increases4, 19
INFLATION
September CPI 2.3% y/y; core CPI 2.2%20
10Y
3.05% → 11/8 3.24% → 2.69% at year-end · Equities remained weak even after long yields fell3, 18
BACKDROP
U.S.–China trade tensions · Growth concerns · December partial government shutdown · Election (Democrats gained a net 41 House seats)21, 22
2022S&P500 +7.1%
FED
Nov. 2: 3.75–4.00% · Dec. 14: 4.25–4.50% · The November statement said the Fed would consider cumulative tightening and policy lags when determining the pace of future increases6, 23
INFLATION
Headline CPI y/y: 9.1% in June → 8.2% in September → 7.7% in October (released Nov. 10) → 7.1% in November (released Dec. 13)5
10Y
3.83% → 10/24 4.25% → 3.88% at year-end · On the Oct. CPI release day (Nov. 10), the 10-year yield fell from 4.12% to 3.82%5, 10
STARTING POINT
S&P 500 was −24.8% YTD through end-September3

Repricing matters more than labels

In 2018, equities stayed weak even as long-term yields fell after November. In 2022, the Fed was still hiking, but once inflation began to cool, rate expectations repriced lower first5, 10, 18 · Even “higher long-term yields mean lower stocks” is too simple a rule. In 2018, tightening, trade conflict, growth fears and the shutdown overlapped, making it impossible to isolate a single driver21

CHECK IN THIS ORDER · INFLATION → Fed path → long-term yields → growth expectations → earnings expectations
This is an analytical sequence, not a proven causal chain · Framework used in this note
PAGE 02 SUMMARY
  1. 2018 and 2022 were both hiking-cycle years · S&P 500 returns from end-September to year-end were −14.0% and +7.1%
  2. More informative than “Is the Fed hiking?” was “In which direction is the market repricing the next move in rates?”
  3. Rates are better viewed as a condition that determines whether the seasonal pattern can work—not as the cause of the seasonality
PAGE 03This year’s starting point
A different starting point

This year has a
different starting point

A market already up sharply · Just after a September hike · Moving with semiconductors
In this note, the S&P 500 is the reference market for midterm seasonality; the KOSPI is the market we are actually trying to readHistorical seasonality is assessed mainly through the S&P 500; the 2026 judgment is made through the KOSPI and its earnings outlook

At end-September, the S&P 500 was +11.8% YTD · above 2018’s +9.0%, the strongest of the prior six cases · The KOSPI was +62.3%2, 3, 12, 13, 14, 15

S&P 500 YTD return at end-September · Midterm years%
2002 2022 2010 2014 2006 2018 2026 +11.8 −30−150+15
Prior six cases use values from Hana Securities’ chart. 2026 is calculated from the Sep. 30 close of 7,652 and the 2025 year-end close of 6,845.50. Hana shows roughly +14% without specifying its cutoff date. The three strongest prior YTD years were 2006, 2014 and 2018.2, 3, 12, 13
A post-election rebound from a deeply depressed market is not the same setup as seasonality in a market that has already risen sharplyIn 2002 and 2022, the S&P 500 was down −29.0% and −24.8% YTD by end-September, then gained +7.8% and +7.1% through year-end2, 3

Hana also concludes that midterm elections did not add more explanatory power than mean reversion in YTD performance3 · Part of the “stocks rise after the midterms” statistic may reflect rebound from prior losses rather than a political effect

The 2026 setup

PAGE 03 SUMMARY
  1. The starting point is stronger than in any of the prior six cases on an end-September YTD basis (S&P 500 +11.8%)
  2. Part of the historical rebound may simply be a recovery from prior losses. The S&P 500 enters this period with accumulated gains rather than a large drawdown to reverse. The KOSPI presents both sides at once: +62.3% YTD, but −19.3% from end-June as of Sep. 30 (this note’s calculation).2, 14, 26
  3. The KOSPI has been moving with the semiconductor cycle (Kiwoom). VKOSPI has retreated from its peak, while MOVE remains elevated, making the bond market the clearer source of caution for now
PAGE 04Four-week decision framework
How to read the next four weeks

The next four weeks turn on
rates and earnings

Election results are not used as a directional signal · Two axes and a decision matrix

Kiwoom finds that the type of congressional outcome did not consistently explain the KOSPI’s direction in the historical sample1 · This note therefore does not use the election result itself as a directional signal. Election Day is Nov. 3; results begin coming in from Nov. 4 in Korea. Certification of individual races can take days or longer28, 29

MARKET CLOSED
10.05Mon
National Foundation Day substitute holidayKorean market closed17
CALC.
10.06~08
Historical average-path trough windowNot a forecast of this year’s low · When Korea reopens on Oct. 6, it will absorb the U.S. September payrolls print (+29,000)1, 2, 30
earnings
10.07~08
Samsung Electronics 3Q preliminary resultsExpected timing based on media reports · First test of the earnings axis16
MARKET CLOSED
10.09Fri
Hangeul DayKorean market closed17
rates
10.14Wed
U.S. September CPI21:30 KST · Last major consumer-inflation release before the FOMC7, 31
BOK
10.22Thu
Monetary Policy Board meetingDomestic rate path32
rates
10.28Wed
FOMC decision14:00 ET · Oct. 29, 03:00 KST8
Election
11.03Tue
U.S. midterm electionsResults begin coming in from Nov. 4 KST28, 29
AXIS 1 · RATES

CPI → FOMC → U.S. 10-year · MOVE

  • Current · Policy rate 3.75–4.00% after the Sep. 16 hike · U.S. 10-year 5.29% on Sep. 30, 5.28% on Oct. 2 · MOVE around 102 at end-September1, 11, 24, 25
  • Watch · How rate expectations reprice after the Oct. 14 CPI. As in November 2022, one inflation print can change the path5, 10
WHY OCT. 14 CPI MATTERS
  • Last major consumer-inflation release before the FOMC · September PCE and the advance Q3 GDP estimate are released Oct. 29 at 08:30 ET (21:30 KST), after the FOMC decision at 03:00 KST8, 31
  • New York Fed President John Williams (Sep. 29) · Said the September decision removed the need for urgency and allowed time to gather more information; if the economy evolves broadly as he expects, one more increase late this year could be appropriate33
  • Fed Governor Michael Barr (Sep. 23) · Said inflation was not clearly moving back to target in a timely way and that, in his baseline, further policy adjustment would likely be needed34
  • MARKET · CME FedWatch: probability of an October hike fell from 64.2% a week earlier (Sep. 25) to 24.4% on Oct. 1 and 22.7% after the Oct. 2 payrolls report (+29,000); it dipped below 20% intraday. Most of the decline occurred before the jobs release30, 35, 36

Expectations for an October hike have fallen, but Williams still pointed to a possible late-year hike and Barr to the likely need for further adjustment. CPI is the next major catalyst for repricing that path

AXIS 2 · EARNINGS

Samsung Electronics 3Q → semiconductor cycle → 2027 earnings

  • Current · KOSPI 12-month forward EPS rose from 1,240 at end-August to 1,275.84 on Sep. 23 · 2027 KOSPI operating-profit estimate rose from KRW 1,250tn to KRW 1,263tn (FnGuide data cited by Daishin Securities)37
  • Kiwoom argues that in early-to-mid October, further upgrades to 2027 earnings after Q3 results and the direction of long-term yields matter more than the historical average election path1
  • Watch · Whether 2027 estimates keep rising after the preliminary results expected Oct. 7–8 in media reports16
Rates × Earnings decision matrixFramework used in this note · Not a forecast
2027 earnings
upgrades continue
2027 earnings
flat / downgraded
long-term yields
stable / falling
Rates and earnings both supportiveSeasonality becomes a secondary confirmation
Easing rate pressure vs weaker earningsMore sector dispersion than index-level signal
long-term yields
rising again
Better earnings vs higher discount-rate pressureA valuation tug-of-war
Rates and earnings both adverseFundamentals take precedence over seasonality
Horizontal axis: direction of revisions to 2027 earnings. Vertical axis: direction of the U.S. 10-year yield. The quadrant descriptions are this note’s interpretation; there is no historical classification of the six elections using this matrix. In hindsight, Nov.–Dec. 2018—falling long yields and downward earnings revisions—was closest to the upper-right quadrant, yet the index fell sharply (S&P 500 −7.6% in Nov.–Dec.) rather than merely showing sector dispersion. Index declines are therefore still possible in this quadrant.3, 18, 21
OUTSIDE VIEW
  • J.P. Morgan AM(7/8) · Confirms strong Q4 seasonality in midterm years over a long sample, but argues that monetary policy, employment, corporate earnings and valuations—not elections—are the key inputs for judging the investment environment9
  • Fidelity · Denise Chisholm (Aug. 12) · Elections have historically been a supplementary, not primary, driver of stock-market performance38
  • Reuters(10/2) · Citing CFRA’s Sam Stovall: Q4 in midterm years has averaged +6.4%, versus +4.2% for all fourth quarters since 1945 · This year, surging Treasury yields and earnings season will test that seasonal tendency39

The Oct. 6–8 trough window is simply where the six-election average path lands when mapped onto this year’s trading calendar. Individual-year lows have occurred weeks away from that window.

CLOSING NOTE
The recent average has only six cases,
the test is rates and earnings

Midterm seasonality is not a buy signal. It is a baseline against which to judge whether rates and earnings move in the same direction over the next four weeks.

This document reviews market seasonality around U.S. midterm elections. It is not a forecast of election outcomes or the direction of any specific asset, nor is it investment advice. Data basis: historical midterm statistics are compiled by Kiwoom Securities (Oct. 1) and Hana Securities (Sep. 30), covering six elections from 2002–2022. J.P. Morgan AM’s average Q4 S&P 500 return in midterm years since 1937 is based on the S&P 500 Total Return Index and uses a methodology different from the recent six-case series, so it is used only to confirm the existence of seasonality. End-Sep.–year-end returns, the six-case median, the average excluding 2018, recalculations by high/low YTD groups, trading-day back-calculation, 2026 YTD returns, and KOSPI returns from end-July and end-June are this note’s calculations. U.S. 10-year yields for 2018 and 2022 use U.S. Treasury daily par yields; inflation uses BLS CPI releases available at each point in time. December 2022 CPI was released in January 2023 and is shown only in sources as a later check. 2018 House-seat changes use U.S. House historical data. The 2018 backdrop is drawn from Rothschild & Co’s January 2019 review. S&P 500 uses the Sep. 30 close (Investrade) and the 2025 year-end close of 6,845.50. KOSPI uses reported closes for Jul. 31, Sep. 30 and Oct. 2, plus the 2025 year-end close of 4,214.17. 2026 U.S. 10-year yields use Treasury par yields for Sep. 30 and Oct. 2. Forward EPS and 2027 operating-profit estimates are from Daishin Securities’ Sep. 28 compilation. MOVE and VKOSPI commentary is from Kiwoom at end-September. Fed decisions and wording come from official FOMC statements; Williams from the New York Fed speech on Sep. 29; Barr from the Fed speech on Sep. 23. October hike probabilities come from Reuters citing CME FedWatch on Oct. 2. September PCE and Q3 GDP schedules come from BEA’s release calendar checked Oct. 3. Outside views are from J.P. Morgan AM (Jul. 8), Fidelity (Aug. 12) and Reuters (Oct. 2, citing CFRA). September U.S. employment is from BLS (Oct. 2). Election date is from the FEC. Samsung Electronics’ preliminary-results timing is based on Sep. 27 media reports prior to a company announcement. Market holidays and CPI, BOK MPC and FOMC dates are based on exchange reports and official institutional calendars. All interpretations may change as new data and market prices arrive.

GLOSSARYQuick glossary
Midterm election
U.S. congressional elections held halfway through a presidential term · All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate are contested
Seasonality
A tendency for similar market patterns to recur at particular times · With a small sample, one or two years can materially change the average
Mean reversion
A tendency for prices to move in the opposite direction after an unusually large rise or fall
YTD
Year-to-date return · In this note, measured at end-September
Rate-hiking cycle
Years in which the Fed was in a tightening phase around the election · Kiwoom classifies 2018 and 2022 this way among the six recent cases
Repricing
The market adjusting prices to reflect a revised expected path for rates or inflation after new information arrives
VKOSPI
Expected future volatility implied by KOSPI 200 options · Korea’s counterpart to the VIX for the S&P 500
PCE inflation
Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for its 2% target
FedWatch
Implied probabilities of Fed rate changes at each FOMC meeting, derived from CME federal-funds futures prices
MOVE
A measure of expected U.S. Treasury-market volatility derived from Treasury option prices
Trading-day back-calculation
Counting backward from a reference date using trading days only, excluding market holidays
SOURCES (39)

Information cutoff · Oct. 3, 2026 KST · Includes U.S. closes through Oct. 2 · Published Oct. 4, 2026

1. Kiwoom Securities, “KIWOOM Issue Analysis · U.S. Midterms and the KOSPI: Reviewing Historical Patterns and How to Respond,” Oct. 1, 2026 (Han Ji-young) · Covers six midterm elections from 2002–2022 · Both KOSPI and S&P 500 reached their average trough 18–19 trading days before Election Day and recovered roughly +10% by 120 trading days afterward · Period returns (KOSPI average / probability of gain; S&P 500): one month before election +2.0% / 67%; +4.3% / 83%. One month after +2.5% / 67%; +0.9% / 67%. Three months after +2.0% / 83%; +1.4% / 67%. Six months after +6.3% / 83%; +5.6% / 83%. Twelve months after +10.5% / 83%; +7.9% / 100% · Chart caption: KOSPI averaged −5.2% over the six months before the election, with roughly an 83% probability of decline · In Fed hiking years (2018, 2022), KOSPI rebounded for 3–6 months after the election, then 12-month returns reverted toward the Election Day level; in non-hiking years (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014), average gains of roughly 15% persisted through 12 months · S&P 500 was up roughly +10% at 12 months even in hiking years · VIX peaked at 24.5 19 trading days before the election; VKOSPI (five-case average) peaked at 19.3 10 trading days before · Three-month pre-election sector excess returns: communications +5.2%, healthcare +4.9%, displays −9.2% · Thirteen weeks after: shipbuilding +7.1%, software +5.9%, communications −6.9%; report cautions against generalizing this into a broad cyclical-sector rally · Kalshi: Democrats around 90% to win the House; Senate odds in the 60s. Scenarios: Democratic sweep 62.0%, Republican Senate / Democratic House 29.0%, Republican hold 8.0%, Democratic Senate / Republican House 1.3% · Congressional-result type alone did not explain KOSPI direction consistently · As of Sep. 23, KOSPI was +67% YTD and, unlike the historical average, had risen since 60 trading days before the election · KOSPI tracked the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index more closely than the S&P 500; the June peak, July plunge and September recovery coincided with shifts in the semiconductor cycle and AI-infrastructure investment expectations · This year VKOSPI peaked during the July plunge and then fell · In early-to-mid October, further upgrades to 2027 earnings after Q3 results and the direction of rates matter more than the historical average path; MOVE remained elevated at end-September (chart label 101.82) · Examples of policies affected by Congress: semiconductor investment tax credits, IRA provisions and drug pricing. Areas with stronger executive authority: tariffs and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act · Conclusion: midterms are not an independent driver of index direction but a secondary variable for assessing renewed volatility.
2. This note’s calculations · End-Sep.–year-end S&P 500 = (1 + October) × (1 + November–December) − 1, using values from Hana Figure 3: 2002 +7.8% · 2006 +6.2% · 2010 +10.2% · 2014 +4.3% · 2018 −14.0% · 2022 +7.1% · Six-case average +3.6% (matches Hana text) · Median +6.7% · Average excluding 2018 +7.1% · Average for the three highest-YTD years (2006, 2014, 2018) about −1.2% based on displayed values: (6.2 + 4.3 − 14.0) ÷ 3, versus −2.1% stated in Hana text · Average for the top two years excluding 2018 about +5.3% (5.25% from displayed values), versus +8.4% for the three lowest-YTD years (2002, 2010, 2022), matching the report text · Hit-rate conversion: 67% = 4 of 6, 83% = 5 of 6, 100% = 6 of 6 · Roughly 83% probability of a decline over the six months before the election implies a gain in 1 of 6 · 2026 S&P 500 YTD: Sep. 30 7,652 ÷ 2025 year-end 6,845.50 − 1 = +11.8% · KOSPI YTD: Sep. 30 6,838.04 ÷ 2025 year-end 4,214.17 − 1 = +62.3%; Oct. 2 close 7,003.74 = +66.2% · Jul. 31 (roughly 62 KRX trading days before Nov. 3) 6,595.45 → Oct. 2 7,003.74 = +6.2% · KOSPI end-June 8,476.48 → Sep. 30 6,838.04 = −19.3% · Trading-day back-calculation: taking Nov. 3 (Tue.) as day 0, 18–19 KRX trading days earlier are Oct. 7 and Oct. 6 after accounting for Oct. 5 and Oct. 9 market holidays; in the U.S., 18–19 trading days earlier are Oct. 8 and Oct. 7. Using Nov. 4 KST as the reference shifts the dates one day later.
3. Hana Securities, “Practical Quant (Quant MP) · Winning Strategy Around U.S. Midterms / ‘Seasonality’ Matters More Than the Midterms,” Sep. 30, 2026 (Lee Kyung-soo) · Six midterm elections since 2000, S&P 500 from an end-September entry · Positive from end-September to year-end in 5 of 6 cases (2018 the sole negative), six-case average +3.6% · Positive one year after the election in all six cases, average +9.1% · In 2018 Republicans lost 41 House seats; end-Sep.–year-end return −14% · Figure 3 by year (House-seat change / October / Nov.–Dec. / next-year H1): 2002 +8 / 8.6% / −0.7% / 10.8%; 2006 −30 / 3.2% / 2.9% / 6.0%; 2010 −63 / 3.7% / 6.3% / 5.0%; 2014 −13 / 2.3% / 2.0% / 0.2%; 2018 −41 / −6.9% / −7.6% / 17.3%; 2022 −9 / 8.0% / −0.8% / 15.9% · End-September YTD: 2002 −29.0%, 2006 +7.0%, 2010 +2.3%, 2014 +6.7%, 2018 +9.0%, 2022 −24.8% · Text: low-YTD years +8.4% from end-Sep. to year-end versus −2.1% for high-YTD years · Scenario B (large defeat, 2010 and 2018): October −1.6%, Nov.–Dec. −0.6% · Reported “market consensus”: Republicans lose 5–15 House seats · 2026 S&P 500 YTD roughly +14% (cutoff date not stated) · Conclusion: the midterms themselves added no more explanatory power than mean reversion in YTD performance.
4. Federal Reserve · FOMC statement 2018.12.19 · Raised target range to 2.25–2.50% · “some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion”
5. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · CPI news releases · June CPI(Jul. 13, 2022) 9.1% y/y, highest since November 1981 · September CPI(Oct. 13) 8.2%, core 6.6% · October CPI(Nov. 10) 7.7%, core 6.3%, smallest headline increase since January · November CPI(Dec. 13) 7.1%, core 6.0% · For reference: December CPI 6.5% was released Jan. 12, 2023 · Included only as an ex-post check because it was published after the end-Sep.–year-end window and therefore excluded from the main text
6. Federal Reserve · FOMC statement 2022.11.02 · Raised target range to 3.75–4.00% · “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
7. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Schedule of Selected Releases, October 2026 · Employment Situation (September) Oct. 2 at 08:30 ET · CPI (September) Oct. 14 at 08:30 ET · 21:30 KST
8. Federal Reserve Board · October 2026 Calendar · FOMC Oct. 27–28 · Press conference Oct. 28 at 14:30 ET (statement 14:00 ET) · Oct. 29 at 03:00 and 03:30 KST
9. J.P. Morgan Asset Management · Meera Pandit How do markets perform in midterm election years? Jul. 8, 2026 · Since 1937, the first three quarters of midterm years averaged slightly negative returns, while Q4 averaged +6.6% · “fundamentals are the most important factor to assess the investing climate, not elections” · Monetary policy, employment, corporate earnings and valuations are presented as more useful indicators · Chart uses the S&P 500 Total Return Index · Because its methodology is not identical to this note’s recent six-election series based on Hana data, the long sample is used only to confirm whether seasonality exists
10. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates Sep.–Dec. 2022 (XML) · 10-year: Sep. 30 3.83% · Oct. 24 4.25% (Q4 high) · Nov. 8 (Election Day) 4.14% · Nov. 9 4.12% → Nov. 10 3.82% · Dec. 30 3.88%
11. Federal Reserve · FOMC statement 2026.09.16 · 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% · 12–0 vote
12. Investrade · Market Review: September 30, 2026 · S&P 500 7,652 (−0.25%) · September −0.4% · Q3 +2.0%
13. DQYDJ · 2025 S&P 500 Return · S&P 500 year-end 2025: 6,845.50 · year-end 2024: 5,881.63
14. NewsPim · KOSPI and USD/KRW both close lower Sep. 30, 2026 · KOSPI 6,838.04 (−0.48%) · USD/KRW 1,352.8 (−3.9 won) / Seoul Economic Daily FX rate falls on quarter-end exporter selling despite foreign investors converting stock-sale proceeds Sep. 30, 2026 · Foreign investors sold roughly KRW 2.9tn of equities net the previous day · Quarter-end FX selling by exporters
15. Yonhap-affiliated report (published on Nate) · KOSPI 4,214.17… up 75% in 2025 Dec. 30, 2025 · Final trading-day close of 2025: 4,214.17
16. Maeil Newspaper · Samsung Electronics Q3 operating profit forecast at KRW 107tn… first quarter above KRW 100tn? Sep. 27, 2026 · Q3 preliminary results expected Oct. 7 or 8 (media-reported estimate before an official company schedule) · Q2 operating profit KRW 89.4tn
17. Daum / Yonhap-affiliated report · Korean stock-market holiday schedule around Chuseok Sep. 24, 2026 · Oct. 5 (Mon.) National Foundation Day substitute holiday · Oct. 9 (Fri.) Hangeul Day market holiday
18. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates Sep.–Dec. 2018 (XML) · 10-year: Sep. 28 3.05% · Oct. 5 3.23% · Nov. 6 (Election Day) 3.22% · Nov. 8 3.24% (Q4 high) · Nov. 30 3.01% · Dec. 31 2.69%
19. Federal Reserve · FOMC statement 2018.09.26 · Raised federal-funds target range to 2.00–2.25%
20. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · CPI September 2018 Oct. 11, 2018 · 2.3% y/y (August 2.7%) · Core 2.2%
21. Rothschild & Co Asset Management · US Market Review Q4 2018 Jan. 2019 · Describes the Q4 2018 backdrop: December Fed hike and chair comments, U.S.–China trade uncertainty, downward earnings revisions and growth concerns, manufacturing slowdown, and the partial government shutdown caused by budget disputes
22. U.S. House of Representatives, History, Art & Archives · Party Divisions of the House of Representatives · 115th Congress (2017–2019): Democrats 194, Republicans 241 → 116th Congress (2019–2021): Democrats 235, Republicans 199 (North Carolina’s 9th District vacant) · Democrats gained a net 41 seats in the 2018 election
23. Federal Reserve · FOMC statement 2022.12.14 · Raised target range to 4.25–4.50% (50bp after the 75bp move on Nov. 2)
24. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 · 10-year 5.29% on Sep. 30 (daily par yield)
25. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026 · 10-year Oct. 1 5.24% · Oct. 2 5.28% / Investrade’s Oct. 2 review shows 5.276%
26. Daum (monthly indicator roundup) · [Monthly Changes in Major Economic Indicators, July 2026] KOSPI plunges 22% in July as rising U.S. rates hit Korean equities Aug. 1, 2026 · KOSPI 8,476.48 at end-June → 6,595.45 at end-July (−22.19%) · USD/KRW 1,443.97 at end-July · U.S. 10-year 4.422% at end-June → 4.72% at end-July
27. BusinessKorea · [Market Close] KOSPI retakes 7,000 late in the session on institutional buying; USD/KRW closes lower at 1,350.6 Oct. 2, 2026 · KOSPI 7,003.74 (+0.46%) · Reclaimed 7,000 after five trading days · Foreign investors net sold KRW 136.7bn (KRX preliminary figure at 15:47; some later reports cited KRW 143.8bn), individuals net sold KRW 1.7206tn, institutions net bought KRW 381.4bn · USD/KRW 1,350.6 (−7.8 won)
28. Federal Election Commission · Election results and voting information · "Tuesday, November 3, 2026, is the next regularly scheduled federal General Election date."
29. Bipartisan Policy Center · The 2026 Midterms: Key Dates and Events · Election Day Nov. 3 · Certification can take days to weeks depending on state law; vote tallies and media calls before certification are unofficial
30. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · The Employment Situation · September 2026 Oct. 2, 2026 at 08:30 ET (21:30 KST) · Nonfarm payrolls +29,000 · Unemployment rate 4.2% · July revised to −31,000 and August to −29,000 (combined revision −60,000) · Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m, +3.0% y/y
31. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Release Schedule · Personal Income and Outlays (September) and the advance Q3 GDP estimate are both scheduled for Oct. 29 at 08:30 ET · The day after the FOMC decision (Oct. 28, 14:00 ET) · Schedule checked Oct. 3
32. Bank of Korea · Monetary Policy Board meeting schedule · Next policy decision meeting: Thu., Oct. 22
33. Federal Reserve Bank of New York · John C. Williams speech 2026.09.29 University at Buffalo · "With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." · "If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year."
34. Federal Reserve · Michael S. Barr A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter Sep. 23, 2026, Chicago Fed event · “inflation is above our 2 percent target and not clearly trending toward target in a timely way” · “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion”
35. Reuters(Chuck Mikolajczak) · Wall St futures gain as yields, oil prices ease ahead of jobs report Oct. 2, 2026 (published on Investing.com; later updated) · “expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its meeting at the end of October to 22.7%, according to CME FedWatch, from 24.4% in the prior session and 64.2% a week earlier”
36. Reuters · Fed seen skipping October rate hike as job market cools Oct. 2, 2026 (published on Investing.com) · After the jobs report, rate futures priced the chance of an October hike at “less than a one-in-five chance,” down from “more than one-in-four” beforehand
37. Daishin Securities, “Macro vs. Micro: What If Oil and Rate Pressures Ease? · October Market Outlook and Investment Strategy,” Sep. 28, 2026 · KOSPI 12-month forward EPS: 1,240 at end-August → 1,275.84 on Sep. 23 · FnGuide 2027 KOSPI operating-profit estimate: KRW 1,250tn → KRW 1,263tn
38. Fidelity · The surprising truth about midterms and stocks 2026.08.12 · Denise Chisholm "Elections have been a supplementary driver, not the core driver of stock market performance."
39. Reuters(Lewis Krauskopf) · Spiking bond yields, midterms, earnings to test US stocks' typical fourth-quarter strength Oct. 2, 2026 (published on Investing.com) · Cites a note from CFRA’s Sam Stovall · Average Q4 return in midterm years +6.4% · Average S&P 500 return across all fourth quarters since 1945 +4.2% (article does not separately state the sample period for the midterm-year figure) · Identifies surging Treasury yields, Q3 earnings season and dependence on AI investment as tests for Q4 this year
2026.10.04 · Snowshagal INVESTMENT NOTE NO.08snowshagal.com