The two mega caps fell;the rest of the market filled the gap
Coverage: Aug. 24–28 · U.S. data through the Aug. 28 close · We will score the three questions below in the next issue
The only theme formally anchored in policy documents · within it, Construction & EPC comes first
Confirmed earnings and an unconfirmed tariff report point in opposite directions · this is where confirmation matters
Whether it moves from a derivative of the power theme to demand of its own
The weekly gap between KOSPI and KOSDAQ was 6.34pp
Whether average daily semiconductor exports validate NVIDIA's guidance
If ex-KOSPI 200 falls behind KOSPI again
The index moved one way while individual stocks moved the other · price, flows and market breadth showed a different market underneath
Above the dashed line: the top of market cap · below it: the rest of the market · the two sides carried opposite signs in the same week
Aug. 24–28 · the U.S. also managed only a modest gain · semiconductors moved in the same weekly direction in Korea and the U.S., but Korea fell about 2.8 times as much · Friday's U.S. move also reflected Marvell earnings and rate repricing, so the entire gap should not be attributed to tariffs · the tariff-review report nevertheless added an extra discount to Korean semiconductors
WTI fell -4.45% for the week, easing inflation and rate pressure · the Dollar Index moved the other way at +0.91% while USD/KRW fell from KRW 1,386.5 → KRW 1,372.5 · despite broader dollar strength · two consecutive BOK hikes and domestic FX flows outweighed the global dollar move · the small- and mid-cap broadening in Korea therefore looked less like a U.S. risk-on echo and more like domestic rotation
NVIDIA FY2Q27 earnings · second straight BOK rate hike · shareholder returns at Korea's two semiconductor mega caps
Data center $89.0bn · 92% of revenue
Top five hyperscalers $1.3tn
$279bn · most of the increase is memory
A cost that compresses NVIDIA margins
The same price becomes earnings here
Broadening if capacity talks turn into contracts
The same memory price is read as a margin cost on NVIDIA's side and an earnings tailwind on Korean memory's side · the conclusion changes depending on which sentence you read first
The terminal-rate call is split · Kiwoom raised its forecast from 3.25% to 3.50% · Hyundai Motor Securities assigns 60% to a 3.25% terminal rate and 40% to 3.50% · the split turns on whether analysts take the BOK's revised growth outlook at face value
All three questions will be answered between Sep. 1 and Sep. 4 · each question below includes a confirmation signal and an invalidation condition
NVIDIA's supply commitments and Korea's August exports do not map one-for-one · but they let us cross-check whether the same AI and memory-demand intensity appears in Korea's real-economy data · Broadcom guidance is the second cross-check
This week's broadening emerged as the two mega caps fell, so it is still only a one-week phenomenon · the share of advancers flipped from 35.0% on Aug. 27 to 70.4% on Aug. 28 in a single day, making two-week persistence the test
This week the policy rate moved; next week the pressure points are government-bond supply and U.S. employment · the Sep. 3 budget feeds into Korea's long end, and Sep. 4 U.S. jobs data into the U.S. long end
Four sectors · and four branches within one sector · even within the same theme, the benefit arrives at different times
The first place to look is Construction · EPC
The only branch where orders are already visible in the numbers
AI data centers 18.4GW · semiconductor fabs 6.3GW
Combined-cycle gas · nuclear · SMR orders
Transformers · ultra-high voltage · distribution
Data-center and power-plant construction
Electricity-rate structure and the burden of transmission investment
Even within one theme, benefits arrive in sequence · orders become visible first · earnings are confirmed later
The week's biggest excess return came from outside semiconductors ·
and even within that theme, each branch arrived at a different time.
Disclosures from this week whose price impact remains relevant next week
Next week's calendar · the three questions on the right will be scored exactly as written in the next issue
Before the open: production, consumption and investment · after the close: LG Innotek added; HLB, LG Display, POSCO International and Samsung Epis Holdings removed
The first scoring point for this week's thesis
First inflation print after two consecutive hikes · second confirmation point for AI orders
Budget size and government-bond issuance plan
The late-week data point that can set the rate path
Score with Sep. 1 average daily semiconductor exports and Sep. 2 Broadcom guidance
Score by comparing weekly returns of ex-KOSPI 200 and KOSPI
Score with Korea 3Y and 10Y government bonds and USD/KRW around the budget announcement
Next week's question is not whether the index breaks above 7,000 ·
it is whether the market outside the two mega caps holds up for a second week.
| Index | Base | 8/28 Close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,912.95 | 6,788.88 | -1.79% |
| KOSPI 200 | 1,096.25 | 1,065.70 | -2.79% |
| Ex-KOSPI 200 | 4,328.64 | 4,542.11 | +4.93% |
| KOSPI Mid Cap | 3,933.48 | 4,184.32 | +6.38% |
| KOSPI Small Cap | 2,327.69 | 2,428.28 | +4.32% |
| KOSDAQ | 801.94 | 838.41 | +4.55% |
| KRX Samsung Electronics Index | 5,271.54 | 4,812.73 | -8.70% |
| KRX SK hynix Index | 10,105.14 | 9,655.37 | -4.45% |
| Sector | Weekly | Sector | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | +15.60% | Electrical & Electronics | -4.42% |
| Machinery & Equipment | +12.91% | KRX Automobiles | -2.70% |
| KRX Steel | +11.54% | KRX Semiconductors | -2.09% |
| KRX Machinery & Equipment | +11.03% | Distribution | -1.97% |
| Metals | +9.13% | Insurance | -0.87% |
| General Services | +9.02% | Pharmaceuticals | -0.53% |
| Chemicals | +6.45% | Telecom | -0.40% |
| KRX Banks | +5.39% | Transport Equipment & Parts | -0.17% |
| KRX Utilities | +5.38% | KRX Information Technology | 0.00% |
Sector returns are market-cap-weighted indexes, not sector-level net inflow amounts
| Investor | 8/24 | 8/25 | 8/26 | 8/27 | 8/28 | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign | -KRW 3.6764tn | -KRW 3.8143tn | -KRW 116.2bn | +KRW 135.4bn | -KRW 1.756tn | -KRW 9.2275tn |
| Institutional | -KRW 1.2928tn | +KRW 1.1708tn | +KRW 759.4bn | +KRW 181.4bn | -KRW 284.0bn | +KRW 534.8bn |
| Individual | +KRW 3.3209tn | +KRW 1.0516tn | -KRW 2.2414tn | -KRW 1.9120tn | +KRW 424.0bn | +KRW 643.1bn |
| Residual Outside the Three Main Investor Groups | +KRW 1.6483tn | +KRW 1.5919tn | +KRW 1.5982tn | Unavailable | Unavailable | Not calculated |
Naver Finance investor-type data · KOSPI cash market · the weekly total sums only the three main investor groups · the residual outside those groups includes treasury-share acquisition accounts; because a standalone 'other corporations' figure is unavailable on some days, we do not isolate the treasury-share component · comparable values for Aug. 27–28 are unavailable, so the weekly residual is not calculated
The advancing-stock ratio uses advancers plus limit-up stocks in the numerator and all KOSPI issues including unchanged stocks in the denominator · Aug. 27 35.0% · Aug. 28 70.4%