Snowshagal Weekly · 2026.09.05 · Winds Stronger Than the Support · The support stayed the same for all five sessions, but direction was set from outside the market
2026.09.05Korea Stock Market Weekly
Snowshagal Weekly

Winds Stronger Than
the Support

This Week in One Line

The support stayed the same for all five sessions,but direction was set from outside the market

Previous Weekly · Daily · Market page — all on the website snowshagal.com
Korea · U.S. closes confirmedU.S. regular-session data through the September 3 close · U.S. August jobs data, released after Korea's September 4 close, reflected separately
00Key Questions for Next Week

A week when domestic catalysts
did not set the direction

Coverage: Aug. 31–Sep. 4 · U.S. market through Sep. 3 close · The next issue will revisit the three questions below

THIS WEEK'S THESIS
Direction was set by oil and U.S. yields ·
The gap was filled by
offsetting buying in two stocks
  • KOSPI weekly -1.50% · KOSDAQ -2.97% · Last week's broadening lasted only one week
  • Retail, foreign and institutional investors were all net sellers in KOSPI over the five sessions · combined -KRW 8.061tn · On the other side, the two stocks saw roughly KRW 1.5tn of buying each day from outside the three investor groups
  • Next week's question is not the index direction, but what remains when that hand gets smaller
  1. Semiconductors · Back-end

    The only axis still positive for the week · branches with order awards confirmed in filings come first

  2. Power · Construction · AIDC

    Prices were pushed back even as the policy documents grew larger

  3. Secondary batteries · ESS

    The regulatory timetable is set · the sector has the widest target-price dispersion

MARKET
Last week's leadership reversed

Only two of 39 KRX themes finished the week positive — both semiconductors

TRIGGER
Sep. 11 · U.S. August CPI

The release that will set the rate path after the Sep. 4 jobs surprise

INVALIDATION
Oil entrenched in the $90s

Every rebound thesis for the beaten-down groups now hinges on rates

01What Changed This Week

Last week's leaders
became this week's laggards

The places that rose the most last week fell the most this week · What changed in price, flows and breadththis week

Weekly performance · 2026.08.31~09.04Based on KRX closes · versus Aug. 28 close

The two names below the dotted line were the only weekly gainers · both are semiconductor indices · industry and theme indices are separate series, so their rankings should not be mixed

01

Last week's top performers
became this week's biggest decliners

  • KOSPI Construction last week +15.60% → this week -7.08% · Machinery & Equipment +12.91% → -4.62%
  • KRX-Akros AI Power Infrastructure -7.91% · K-AI Defense TOP5+ -7.62% · Weekly gainers among 39 themes 2
  • KOSDAQ -2.97%KOSDAQ fell more than KOSPI · the biggest decline was KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals -7.27%— the largest of 46 industries
02

Oil and U.S. yields
became the main variables for Korea

  • Escalation in U.S.–Iran conflict · WTI weekly +10.4% · Sep. 2 close $92.2
  • U.S. 10Y 4.792%— highest since January 2025 · Japan 10Y at 2.996%, highest since 1996
  • Probability of a September hike: 35.4% just before Jackson Hole → Sep. 2 68% · Korean Treasury yields rose across the curve on Sep. 2
03

In a week when all three investor groups sold,
the index fell only 1.5%

  • Five-session KOSPI foreigners -KRW 2.985tn · institutions -KRW 2.016tn · retail -KRW 3.060tn
  • On the other side, every day saw about KRW 1.5tn · mostly buying outside the three investor groups in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
  • Other corporations 13 straight sessions of net buying · this flow is structurally different from ordinary investor flows
DATE
KOSPI
What Actually Moved Prices That Day
08.31
+0.46%
Rebounded from -3.55% intraday · the recovery came from other-corporation buying in the two stocks
09.01
+0.23%
August semiconductor exports hit a record $46.65bn · KOSDAQ -1.56%
09.02
-3.99%
Oil and U.S. yields surged together · 41 of 46 industries fell · all 39 themes declined
09.03
+0.26%
Morning broadening → gains surrendered in the afternoon on Middle East escalation headlines · financials were what remained at the close
09.04
+1.64%
Fed Governor Waller signaled a hold · semiconductor mega-caps returned · KOSDAQ +2.95%
Last week's question · Is the AI demand shown by Nvidia also visible in Korea's semiconductor exports?
Yes. August semiconductor exports $46.65bn · +209.0% YoY, an all-time high · Broadcom's Q4 AI guidance also beat expectations
Last week's question · Does market breadth extend into a second week?
No. KOSDAQ fell more than KOSPI, and last week's strongest areas became this week's biggest decliners
Last week's question · Do the budget proposal and employment data push long-term yields higher again?
Yes · but the budget was not what did it. Net KTB issuance in 2027 is actually down KRW 13.1tn · oil and U.S. long yields were what pushed rates higher
GLOBAL CROSS-CHECK
WTI · Sep. 292.2
U.S. 10Y · Sep. 34.762%
SOX · Sep. 311,352.13
VIX · Sep. 314.32
USD/KRW · Sep. 41,350.4

Two overseas variables explained Korea this week · oil and U.S. long-term yields · The U.S. equity market itself did not set the direction · Korea fell 4% the session after oil and yields rose together in the U.S. on Sep. 1, then rebounded the session after yields eased on Sep. 3 as Fed Governor Waller signaled a hold

USD/KRW moved from KRW 1,372.5 on Aug. 28 to KRW 1,350.4on Sep. 4 -KRW 22.1 · around a 14-month low · the won strengthened in a week of foreign KOSPI selling, pointing instead to semiconductor exports and the current account · July current account $42.08bn surplus, the largest ever for a July

02Three Events This Week

What actually
moved prices

U.S.–Iran conflict and oil · August exports and Broadcom · buying from outside the three investor groups

Aug. 30–Sep. 3 · U.S.–Iran conflict escalates

A selloff that started in oil
and arrived through rates

What happened WHAT HAPPENED
  • On Aug. 30 local time, U.S. forces struck rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island · Iran responded with missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan
  • On Sep. 1, U.S. forces targeted IRGC positions in southern Iran and around the Strait of Hormuz about 100 sites with airstrikes · two tankers were hit in Hormuz
  • On Sep. 2 local time, Iran launched additional missile and drone attacks on a U.S. base in Kuwait
  • WTI October futures in the Sep. 1 U.S. session $90.22 · +5.2% in one day · Brent $94.65 · both their highest closes since late July
  • U.S. 10Y 4.792% · Japan 10Y at 2.996%, highest since 1996 · U.K. 30Y at its highest since 1998
What changed WHY IT MATTERS
  • Until last week, domestic catalysts were the main axis for Korea · this week, price setting moved overseas
  • The transmission path lengthened by one step · not the conflict itself, but oil → inflation → rates → risk aversionwas how it arrived
  • In the same week, U.S. August ISM manufacturing at 54.6 and July JOLTS at 7.271m both missed expectations, yet hike odds still rose · oil led the data
  • Korea's August CPI 3.1% · core 3.4%at its highest since May 2023 · KTB yields rose across the curve on Sep. 2, directly absorbing the pressure from U.S. rates
01
Hormuz conflict

Airstrikes on roughly 100 IRGC targets

02
Oil

WTI above $90 · +10.4% weekly

03
Inflation expectations

September hike odds rise to 68%

04
U.S. long-term yields

10Y rises to 4.792%

05
Korean Treasury Bonds

3Y 3.930% · 10Y 4.418% · yields up across the curve

06
Risk aversion in Korea

Sep. 2 KOSPI -3.99%

How the market took it MARKET RESPONSE
  • Sep. 2 KOSPI -3.99% · KOSDAQ -2.10% · 41 of 46 industries fell · all 39 KRX themes declined
  • KOSPI share of advancers that day 15.4% · 735 decliners · all top-10 stocks by market cap fell
  • The biggest declines were in Shipbuilding TOP10 -6.29% · K-AI Secondary Battery -5.75% · AI Power Infrastructure -5.62% · large-cap growth groups fell first
  • The same week also had two days when rates directly determined sector signs · Sep. 3 KOSPI Insurance +4.44%ranked No. 1 among 46 industries · the next day -3.46%it ranked No. 1 in declines among 24 KOSPI industries · all 13 constituents moved in the same direction on both days
  • On the afternoon of Sep. 3, during headlines about the attack on the U.S. base in Kuwait, foreigners' net KOSPI 200 futures buying shrank from KRW 703.5bn at 13:15 to KRW 40.3bn at 14:37 · futures moved first, cash followed
What remains WHAT REMAINS
  • The conflict is not a finished event · most catalysts reaching Korea next week will arrive only through oil and rates
  • On Sep. 4, Fed Governor Waller's conditional signal for a hold pushed hike odds down toward 50%, but that same night U.S. August payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin, and immediately after the release odds moved from 52.6% to 58%— CME FedWatch, Sep. 4 night reading
  • Every rebound thesis for the beaten-down sectors assumes lower rates · whether that assumption holds is the key test next week
Where views diverge

Daishin Securities' commodities report puts average WTI at $85 in 2026 and $130 in 2027, and sees sub-$80 as a buy-the-dip zone· the same house's global strategy instead assumes a resolution of the Iran warand leans toward an upside September · the oil assumptions point in opposite directions, so they should not be read as one view

Sep. 1 · August exports / Sep. 3 · Broadcom FY3Q

The confirmation came first;
prices followed three days later

What happened WHAT HAPPENED
  • Sep. 1 09:00 preliminary August trade data · Broadcom FY3Q results early Sep. 3 · July current account before the Sep. 4 open $42.08bn surplus, the largest ever for a July and the second-largest monthly reading on record
What changed WHY IT MATTERS
  • The answer to last week's first question · AI demand strength was confirmed in Korea's real-economy data
  • But the structure was price-led · export prices and export volumes moved in opposite directions
  • Broadcom was the place to test whether orders were concentrated only at Nvidia, and it did that job
August Exports KOREA EXPORTS · AUG 2026
ItemAugustYoY
Exports$98.25bn+68.7%
Semiconductors$46.65bn+209.0%
Trade balance$34.75bn surplus—
Export prices—+87.1%
Export volume—-9.9%
Ex-semiconductor growth · definitions differ by broker, so they are not merged into one figure
Daishin SecuritiesEx-semiconductors & computers—+8.1%
Hanwha Investment · YuantaNon-semiconductors—+19.6%
Eugene InvestmentEx-semiconductors only—+19.2%

Semiconductors hit an all-time high · above $40bn for three straight months · trade surplus above $30bn for three straight months · prices and volume moved in opposite directions, so the value growth rate should not be read directly as demand strength · released by MOTIE and Korea Customs Service at 09:00 on Sep. 1 · price and volume data from Hanwha Investment & Securities

Broadcom FY3Q BROADCOM · CONSENSUS vs ACTUAL
ItemConsensusReportedResult
Revenue$29.36bn$29.59bnBeat
Adjusted EPS$3.22$3.32Beat
Q4 revenue guidance$35.03bn$34.80bnMiss
Q4 AI semiconductor guidance$21.3bn$21.7bnBeat
FY3Q AI semiconductor revenue—$16.7bnabout 3x YoY

Only total-revenue guidance missed expectations; every AI item beat · beat/miss is not a price direction, so no up/down color is applied · released after the U.S. close on Sep. 2 ET · consensus based on media-compiled estimates

How the market took it MARKET RESPONSE
  • On the announcement day, Sep. 1, KOSPI was only +0.23%while KOSDAQ was -1.56% · confirmation did not immediately become price
  • Price arrived on Sep. 4 · Samsung Electronics +2.20% · SK hynix +3.20% · Hanmi Semiconductor +9.26%
  • On the same day, KRX Semiconductor Top 15 +3.90% · all 15 constituents rose · KRX AI Semiconductors +3.43%
  • These were also the only two weekly gainers · KRX AI Semiconductors +0.94% · Semiconductor Top 15 +0.70%
What remains WHAT REMAINS
  • September export calendar drag · Chuseok reduces working days, so headline growth naturally enters a slower zone
  • In a Sep. 2 local-time interview, the U.S. Commerce Secretary linked U.S. production with tariff exemptions· tariff rates, covered products, country exemptions and implementation timing all remain undecided
  • The setup is the same as last week: confirmed demand and unconfirmed policy pull in opposite directions · what changed is that the demand side is now documented
Where views diverge

September export forecasts split sharply · Yuanta's own model puts the median at $108.0bn · +63.6%and sees a possibility of a record on a daily-average basis · Eugene, even assuming the same export value as August, sees growth slowing to +49%and judges semiconductor growth to peak in Q3 · two forecasts starting from the same August data

Aug. 31–Sep. 4 · buying outside the three investor groups

A week when all three groups sold ·
and this was the buying on the other side

What happened WHAT HAPPENED
  • Five-session KOSPI net buying · foreigners -KRW 2.985tn · institutions -KRW 2.016tn · retail -KRW 3.060tn · combined three-group total -KRW 8.061tn
  • Other corporations 13 straight sessions Net buying · Sep. 4 close tally +KRW 1.5741tn
  • SK hynix share-buyback period: Aug. 20–Nov. 19 · cancellation within 1–2 weeks after completion
Size of the Support vs. Index Direction DAILY · KOSPI CASH
DateCombined net buying by the three groupsOther side in the two stocksKOSPI
08.31-KRW 1.5773tn+KRW 1.5454tn+0.46%
09.01-KRW 1.6657tn+KRW 1.5914tn+0.23%
09.02-KRW 1.6505tn+KRW 1.5623tn-3.99%
09.03-KRW 1.5937tn+KRW 1.5403tn+0.26%
09.04-KRW 1.5740tn+KRW 1.5272tn+1.64%

The two left columns stayed nearly the same size through all five sessions · only the right column ranged from -3.99% to +1.64% · The point of this table is that the size of the support did not determine direction · “Other side in the two stocks” is a direct other-corporation tally only for Aug. 31; Sep. 1–4 are back-solved from stock-level net buying by the three investor groups

What was confirmed WHY IT MATTERS
  • Sep. 2 was the test · the third row in the table above · the buying stayed in place, but the index fell -3.99%
  • At the same time, on Aug. 31 and Sep. 3 the index was positive even though all three groups sold · on some days, the same buying stood on the same side as the index direction
  • In short, the buying filled a flow gap in the two mega-caps · interpreted as reinforcing the index floor (interpretation) · not used as an explanatory variable for index direction
  • Not all other-corporation net buying is assumed to be buybacks · other foreign investors and government/local-government accounts are also mixed in
How the market took it MARKET RESPONSE
  • KOSPI share of advancers: Aug. 31 40.2% → Sep. 1 49.3% → Sep. 2 15.4% → Sep. 3 46.6% → Sep. 4 60.4%
  • The only day when both the index sign and the share of advancers pointed up was Sep. 4 alone · on the other four days, the index looked stronger than the market beneath it
  • KOSPI turnover on Sep. 4 was KRW 17.46tn, 85.1% of the five-day average · the index rebound did not come with a recovery in trading activity
What remains WHAT REMAINS
  • SK hynix's scheduled buyback deadline is Nov. 19 · whether support of similar size persists afterward will be the bigger test
  • Samsung Electronics' remaining capital allocation is undecided · Hana Securities expects a KRW 30tn cash dividend after Q3 results; Daishin expects the remainder to be announced at the late-January 2027 board meeting
  • The next checkpoint is the index sign on a day when the buying falls below KRW 1tn
How to read the numbers

Only Aug. 31 is a direct other-corporation tally; Sep. 1–4 are back-solved from the sum of stock-level net buying by the three investor groups · the simple five-session sum is about KRW 7.77tn, roughly 96% of the combined three-group net selling, but the series are not from the same category, so we do not fix them as one aggregate figure

03Three Variables for Next Week

Starting next week,
we begin collecting the answers

Q1 will be fully scored on Sep. 11 · Q2 and Q3 are scored when their conditions occur · each question lists confirmation signals and warning conditions

09.0709.0809.0909.1009.11Q.01Semiconductors & U.S. inflationScore on Sep. 11Q.02Rebound of beaten-down groupsWhen conditions occurQ.03Size of offsetting buyingMonitor through the week
Solid line = question with a fixed scoring date · dotted line = question scored when a condition occurs · if the condition does not occur next week, it carries into the next issue
Q.01

Can semiconductors withstand
renewed higher U.S. rates?

The first premise behind the Sep. 4 rebound was Fed Governor Waller's signal for a hold, and that premise was partly reversed that night by the 162,000 U.S. August payroll print · Sep. 7 is a U.S. Labor Day holiday, so there is no overnight U.S. cash session and Korea will digest the jobs surprise before U.S. equities reopen · late-week inflation data provide the final score

Signal that demand is winningSamsung Electronics and SK hynix hold gains on Sep. 7 · KRX Semiconductor Top 15 outperforms KOSPI · U.S. August core CPI ≤2.4% YoY on Sep. 11
Condition that rates are winningU.S. August core CPI ≥2.5% YoY · U.S. 10Y back above 4.8% · September hike odds re-enter the 60% range
Exogenous variable that blocks priceSemiconductor tariff products and rates are formally documented · in that case, even confirmed demand can diverge from price
Q.02

Can beaten-down power and construction
recapture the size of their catalysts?

Prices reversed within a week even as the policy documents grew larger · the 2027 budget's three mega-projects and AI items rise to KRW 21.3tn from KRW 10.8tn, nearly doubling · Hana Securities estimates spending under the 12th transmission-grid plan at KRW 114.8–124.3tn · next week's test is whether the gap between price and catalyst narrows

Signal that the gap is narrowingKOSPI Construction outperforms KOSPI for at least two days · a data-center order filing appears in September · oil falls back below $90
Condition that the gap is wideningWTI remains entrenched in the $90s, pushing the KTB 10Y higher again while the AI Power Infrastructure index falls further
Q.03

Can the index hold up when
offsetting buying in the two stocks shrinks?

The buying held around KRW 1.5tn on all five sessions, so there is no sample yet of a day when it shrank · after SK hynix's scheduled Nov. 19 buyback deadline is the larger test, but dependence can first be measured by the index sign on any day the daily amount falls

Signal of low dependenceKOSPI rises on a day when other-corporation net buying falls below KRW 1tn · at least one of the three investor groups turns net buyer
Condition of high dependenceThe buying size holds, but the share of advancers falls below 50% again · only the index rises while the market beneath it does not follow
04Sector Priority

What to watch
first next week

Only the No. 1 sector, semiconductors, is broken down by branch · the other three are kept to Why now · What to watch · Risk three lines each

Semiconductors · Back-end · the only weekly-positive axis · split into four branches
First to watch
Power · Construction · AIDC · the biggest gap between price and catalyst
The widest gap
Secondary batteries · ESS · regulatory schedule is fixed · target-price dispersion is the widest
Needs confirmation
Biotech · Pharmaceuticals · biggest decline in both industry and theme rankings
The biggest decliner
First to watch

Semiconductors · Back-end

What to Watch First in This Sector

The first area to watch is Testing · Inspection
the only branch with order values confirmed in filings

Memory leaders still face earnings and tariffs pulling in opposite directions · substrates are the branch where earnings confirmed first · front-end equipment is still between capex approval and order conversion · even within one cycle, the numbers arrive at different times
Why now WHY NOW
  • In weekly performance, this is the only axis left positive · KRX AI Semiconductors +0.94% · Semiconductor Top 15 +0.70% · all other 37 themes were negative
  • Demand confirmation was completed in documents this week · August semiconductor exports $46.65bn · Broadcom Q4 AI guidance $21.7bn
  • The cycle is shifting from a conversion phase to an expansion phase· SK hynix's August board approved an additional KRW 54.3tnincluding KRW 35.2tn for Y2 and KRW 19.1tn for M17
  • Back-end becomes a standalone capex axis · SK hynix P&T7 KRW 19tn · Samsung Electronics Cheonan/Onyang KRW 56tn · Samsung Electronics Vietnam test plant $1.5bn, targeted to start in Nov. 2027
The order in which numbers arrive MONEY PATH
01
Capex approval

SK KRW 54.3tn · separate back-end fabs

02
Inspection · Metrology

Orders lead · T-3 to T-1 quarters

03
Materials · Components

Ramp timing · quarter T

04
Testing · Sockets

Lag production · T+1 to T+4 quarters

05
Earnings

Meaningful expansion from Q4 into 2027

Lag framework from Hana Securities' 130-page report · even within the same capex cycle, the quarter in which revenue appears differs by branch

How much has the market priced in? WHAT THE MARKET PRICED
KRX AI Semiconductors
+0.94
KRX Semiconductor Top 15
+0.70
Electrical & Electronics · KOSPI
-1.14
KOSPI
-1.50
IT Services · KOSPI
-2.56
Electrical & Electronics · KOSDAQ
-2.81
  • Weekly gains are concentrated in indices containing the two large-cap names · KOSDAQ Electrical & Electronics fell -2.81% in the same week · dispersion remains even within semiconductors
  • Flows point the opposite way · Yuanta's weekly tally for semiconductors & equipment institutions -KRW 3.2tn · foreigners -KRW 2.0tn · foreigners' three-month cumulative -KRW 44.1692tn
  • Industry and theme returns are market-cap-weighted indices, not sector net-inflow amounts · branch-level flows are not from a confirmed comparable series, so judgment is based only on index returns and disclosed orders
KRW 731.4bnTotal recent test-equipment order filings · compiled in the Sep. 2 report

While industry returns do not yet give an answer,
disclosed order values do.

Does it translate into earnings? EARNINGS
  • Q2 operating-profit consensus beat rate: front-end 46% vs. back-end 72%(Daishin Securities tally) · earnings have already begun to diverge
  • Test-equipment market CAGR +29% versus assembly/packaging +14% · HBM probe-card demand intensity by value estimated at 7.5x DRAM
  • Counter-signal · Yuanta's Q2 earnings-surprise strength: semiconductors 98.5% vs. non-semiconductors 115.3% · semiconductor leadership itself has weakened
Where views diverge WHERE THE MARKET DISAGREES
  • Shared premise · no disagreement that capex and back-end demand are expanding · the debate is over when that demand is recognized in earnings
  • 2027 expectations · DS Investment sees the memory share of CSP capex rising from 47% in 2026 to 68% in 2027, putting estimates into an upgrade cycle · Yuanta, citing weaker semiconductor leadership, instead expects attention to broaden toward non-leading sectors· opposite calls published in the same week
  • Target-price dispersion · Samsung Electronics: Daishin KRW 560,000 · Hana KRW 480,000 / SK hynix: Hana KRW 3,600,000 · Daishin KRW 3,200,000
  • Same stock, different values · ISC: Daishin KRW 240,000 · Hana KRW 250,000 · KRW 10,000 difference in reports dated the same day
Orders with disclosed values ORDERS ON RECORD
CompanyCustomerOrdersValue
YC Corp.Samsung Electronics2KRW 255.2bn
Digital FrontierSK hynix3KRW 232.1bn
DI Corp.Samsung Electronics5KRW 142.3bn
ExiconUndisclosed—KRW 101.8bn
TotalKRW 731.4bn

Digital Frontier's three orders are for HBM4 wafer testers · figures compiled by Hanwha Investment & Securities on Sep. 2 from each company's single-sale/supply-contract filings · the only branch with order values confirmed while sector returns still do not provide a clear answer

Priority by branch BRANCHES
Capex approvalNo. 1Testing · InspectionNo. 2Substrates · PackagingNo. 3Memory leadersWaitFront-end equipment
One capex cycle splits into four branches · the distance to reported numbers differs for each · below are the confirmation and risk conditions by branch
Testing · InspectionNo. 1
  • The four orders in the table above · the only branch with values confirmed in filings
  • Demand to relocate existing general-purpose equipment to Vietnam as Samsung Electronics builds a new HBM back-end fab in Onyang
  • Confirm · additional single-sale/supply-contract filings / Risk · a Q4 order gap
Substrates · PackagingNo. 2
  • The branch where earnings confirmed first · Simmtech ranks high in 12-month forward net-income estimate revisions
  • But Simmtech fell -4.78% on Sep. 3, so direction was not consistent through the week
  • Confirm · Q4 utilization and ASPs / Risk · delayed conversion of expansion talks into contracts
Memory leadersNo. 3
  • Earnings are confirmed · price still hinges on tariffs and rates
  • The weekly gain came from the Sep. 4 rebound alone, so it is still a one-day move
  • Confirm · gains hold on Sep. 7 / Risk · tariff products and rates are formally documented
Front-end equipmentWait
  • Capex has been approved, but order values have not yet appeared in filings
  • Clean-room schedules are moving toward acceleration, not delay
  • Confirm · capex-plan disclosures from the three memory makers / Risk · construction schedules slip
Next Catalysts & Failure Conditions NEXT CATALYST
  • Sep. 7 U.S. Labor Day holiday · Korea digests the August U.S. jobs surprise before the U.S. cash market reopens
  • Sep. 11 U.S. August CPI · core consensus 2.4%
  • Late September Micron earnings · whether 2027 HBM4 contracts become more concrete
  • Failure conditions · semiconductor tariff products and rates are formally fixed in documents · U.S. core inflation beats consensus and September hike odds rise back into the 60% range
Broker Target Prices
Based on each broker's published reports · not Snowshagal's view · Snowshagal does not create proprietary target prices
Samsung ElectronicsDaishin 9/1 · Hana 6/18
KRW 560,000 / 480,000
Differ on timing for shareholder returns and foundry breakeven
SK hynixHana 6/26 · Daishin 9/1
KRW 3,600,000 / 3,200,000
Assumes cancellation of KRW 40tn in treasury shares · additional shareholder-return plan expected by end-October
DI Corp.Daishin 9/2 · initiation
KRW 39,000
HBM4 wafer tester · top pick in equipment
YC Corp.Daishin 9/2 · initiation
KRW 17,000
Korea's only HBM wafer tester
ExiconDaishin 9/2 · initiation
KRW 41,000
CLT · Gen6 SSD tester
ISCDaishin 9/2 · initiation · Hana 9/2
KRW 240,000 / 250,000
Socket capacity from 2m units in 2026 to 5m in 2029
Leeno IndustrialDaishin 9/2 · initiation
KRW 91,000
Q4 factory relocation and capacity expansion
SEM C&SDaishin 9/2 · initiation
KRW 20,000
Entry into new HBM probe-card customers
TFEHana 9/2
KRW 61,000
SOCAMM socket/board revenue ramping in earnest
Duksan Hi-MetalHana 9/2
KRW 23,000
Solder-ball demand and pricing from back-end capacity expansion
TESHana 8/18
KRW 200,000
Front-end PECVD · 2026 operating profit +85% YoY
The widest gap

Power · Construction · AIDC

Why now

Prices reversed within a week while the policy documents grew larger · weekly KOSPI Construction -7.08% · AI Power Infrastructure -7.91% · on the other side, the 2027 budget's three mega-projects and AI items total KRW 21.3tnup +97.2% from KRW 10.8tn a year earlier · energy transition KRW 6.6tn, +57.1% · Hana Securities estimates total transmission-grid investment under the 12th plan at KRW 114.8–124.3tn, of which private BT accounts for KRW 34.8–44.3tn

What to watch

September data-center order disclosures · whether KOSPI Construction outperforms KOSPI for at least two days · documentation of KEPCO electricity-bill prepayment discussions totaling KRW 25tn · Yuanta's 152-page report opened a new branch not in power equipment but in networks and cooling · Korea's three telecom carriers +24.5% over the past year and 2026E PER 11.0x versus three power-equipment makers +154.1% and 40.9x

Risk

WTI entrenched in the $90s lifts long KTB yields again · the Special Act on Power Grids allows only the BT model, so private-sector returns are not yet fixed · figures for the 12th electricity plan are still from the fifth public-discussion stage and not final · prepayment and public-enterprise consolidation remain under discussion

Broker Target Prices
Based on each broker's published reports · not Snowshagal's view
KEPCOHana 9/3
KRW 45,000
Private BT expansion eases near-term cash-flow burden · transmission/distribution and retail monopolies maintained
SK EternixHana 9/3
KRW 66,000
Greater participation in the centralized ESS contract market
GS E&CHana 9/2 · top pick
KRW 36,000
Highest data-center exposure · Donghae campus scheduled to break ground in November
DL E&CHana 9/2 · second pick
KRW 80,000
Expected H2 data-center orders of KRW 2tn
SK TelecomYuanta 9/2 · Hana 9/1
KRW 118,000 / 140,000
Differ on how much SK Horizon equity value and AIDC business value should be reflected
KTYuanta 9/2 · Hana 9/1
KRW 73,000 / 76,000
Submarine-cable capacity expansion and AX revenue mix
LG UplusYuanta 9/2 · Hana 9/1
KRW 21,000 / 20,000
Koramco partnership · 400MW asset-light model
Hanjoong NCSYuanta 9/2
KRW 97,000
Korea's only mass producer of liquid-cooling components for BESS
Needs confirmation

Secondary batteries · ESS

Why now

Weekly KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10 -2.19% · K-AI Secondary Battery -3.42%was pushed back · on the other side, the Aug. 26 U.S. national-emergency executive order on the power grid set a deadline for implementing rules of Dec. 24· North American ESS volume reached 75.9GWh in H1, +83% YoY · two Korean suppliers' share rose from 13.90% to 19.70%

What to watch

September ESS order disclosures · announcements of expanded LFP capacity for ESS by Korea's three battery makers · Hana Securities puts current combined capacity at under 5GWhversus potential Korean annual demand of 15.6GWh for 2027–2040 · confirm the binding nature of the SK On–NeoVolta agreement

Risk

Risk: price rises on regulatory expectations without orders, then reverses · the SK On contract has 9GWh confirmed, value undisclosed, while KRW 1.5tn is an industry estimate · target-price dispersion is the widest in this sector, so it should not be read as one number

Broker Target Prices
Based on reports published this week · not Snowshagal's view
LG Energy SolutionYuanta 9/2 · iM 9/1 · Hana 9/3
KRW 574,000 / 550,000 / 480,000
Differ on how much North American ESS capacity expansion should be reflected
Samsung SDIYuanta 9/2 · DS 9/1 · Hana 9/3 · iM 9/1
KRW 913,000 / 840,000 / 667,000 / 590,000
Differ on valuation of its 56% share of centralized-market orders and timing of the LFP transition
L&FDS 9/1
KRW 350,000
Advantage in timing the ramp of qualified LFP cathode capacity
The biggest decliner

Biotech · Pharmaceuticals

Why now

This week, the largest decline among 46 industries was KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals at -7.27% · the largest among 39 themes was K-AI Biotech KOSDAQ at -9.11% · Technology-Transfer Biotech -7.44% · KRX Bio TOP 10 -5.40% · a group that fell more than four times the index and cannot be explained by oil and rates alone

What to watch

Watch whether Alteogen recovers the decline after the Novartis deal · whether Samsung Biologics converts H2 non-binding agreements into definitive contracts and starts Fab 6 · whether KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals again outperforms KOSDAQ

Risk

Headline contract value assumes all options are exercised and all milestones achieved · actual cash timing and size are separate · do not attribute the whole week's decline to individual contract assessments · on the Sep. 2 selloff, Bio TOP 10 actually fell only -1.33%, making it a relative outperformer

Broker Target Prices
Only one target price was confirmed in this week's reports · not Snowshagal's view
Samsung BiologicsDS Investment 8/31 · cut
KRW 1,850,000
Cut by about 5% to reflect EPS dilution from the rights issue · Buy rating maintained
05Remaining Issues

What still carries
value into next week

One rule takes effect · one policy dispute moves to the National Assembly · one contract was priced before the cash arrived

Sep. 10 · rule takes effect

Second phase of the amended Commercial Act · separate election of audit-committee directors and cumulative voting

  • Applies to listed companies with total assets of at least KRW 2tn · at least two audit-committee members must be elected separately · articles of incorporation can no longer exclude cumulative voting starting with the first shareholder meeting that elects directors
  • Combined voting rights of the largest shareholder and related parties capped at 3% for appointment/removal of audit-committee members
  • A live case arrives one day earlier · Korea Zinc extraordinary general meeting on Sep. 9 · agenda includes charter amendments expanding separately elected audit-committee directors and election of four directors through cumulative voting
  • Shareholder proposals in Korea rose from 3 in 2017 to 113 in 2025 · 86 through Aug. 27, 2026 · 31 were director-election proposals
  • But the disclosure itself is not a buy signal · Hanwha Investment & Securities “Governance Impact · If You Follow the Filing, You're Late”(Sep. 4) finds median follow-on returns after disclosures in Korea -6.1% · Japan +10.8% · U.S. +6.3% · by demand type, shareholder returns +5.0%, board takeover/management change -9.4% · Korea sample 174 cases, smaller than Japan 1,054 and U.S. 3,971
Sep. 3 · submitted to the National Assembly

2026 Tax Reform Proposal · two issues now before the National Assembly

  • Cumulative revenue effect, 2027–2031 +KRW 3.443tn · stronger comprehensive real-estate tax +KRW 2.1815tn offsets income- and corporate-tax cuts
  • New Productive-Finance ISA · dedicated to Korean listed stocks, domestic equity funds, etc. · interest and dividends fully tax-exempt · total contribution cap KRW 200m
  • Treasury-share taxation unified as a capital transaction · scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2027 · works together with the Commercial Act requirement to cancel treasury shares within one year
  • The “share-price suppression” valuation method was removed from the government bill and moved to the National Assembly · the ruling party's PBR 0.8x floor alternative would expand the universe from 43–65 companies under the government bill to roughly 1,300 low-PBR companies
  • Total ISA balances are about KRW 70tn, small relative to market capitalization, so the near-term flow effect is judged limited · directionally favorable to dividends and treasury-share cancellation
Sep. 2 · contract

Alteogen–Novartis deal · headline value KRW 4.4tn and -5.19% the next day

  • Announced Sep. 2 · an option and license agreement for Novartis to use Alteogen's human hyaluronidase ALT-B4· exclusive options to develop and commercialize subcutaneous formulations across multiple products
  • If every option is exercised and every milestone is achieved, maximum $3.223bn · about KRW 4.4tn · Alteogen's fourth ALT-B4 deal this year
  • Upfront payment and target products were undisclosed · the headline maximum is a ceilingand actual inflow timing and size depend on Novartis exercising the options
  • Sep. 3 close, the next trading day after the announcement -5.19% · KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals that day -2.32% · KRX Technology-Transfer Biotech -3.72% · sector weakness and contract assessment overlapped, so the full decline should not be attributed to contract terms
  • Same structure as the follow-on-buying study above · an example where the announcement itself did not act as a buy signal
06Dates to Watch

From Monday
to Friday

Next week's calendar · the three questions on the right will be carried forward unchanged into the next issue

Korean market open as normal · U.S. closed for Labor Day

Korea is first to digest the Sep. 4 night U.S. August jobs surprise · U.S. cash equities closed

U.S. Treasury expands long-end buybacks · Korea Zinc extraordinary general meeting

From $2bn per operation to at least $4bn · applies through Nov. 4

ECB monetary-policy meeting · U.S. August PPI · second phase of amended Commercial Act takes effect

ECB deposit rate expected to rise 25bp from 2.25% to 2.50% · amended Commercial Act applies to listed companies with assets of at least KRW 2tn

U.S. August CPI

Consensus 3.4% YoY · core 2.4% · the final scoring point for this week's thesis

Q1
Did semiconductors withstand renewed higher U.S. rates?

Score using Sep. 7 moves in the two mega-caps and Sep. 11 U.S. core CPI

Q2
Did beaten-down power and construction recapture the size of their catalysts?

Score by comparing weekly KOSPI Construction performance with KOSPI · order disclosures count as evidence only if they occur

Q3
Did the index hold up on a day when offsetting buying in the two stocks shrank?

Score by the KOSPI sign on a day when other-corporation net buying falls below KRW 1tn · if no such day occurs, carry it into the next issue

WEEKLY ENDLINE

The gap was filled not by investors, but by buying outside the three investor groups ·
Next week's question is what remains when that hand gets smaller.

Appendix

DATA · SOURCES
Weekly Indices · Aug. 31–Sep. 4
IndexBaseSep. 4 closeWeekly
KOSPI6,788.886,687.21-1.50%
KOSPI 2001,065.701,051.52-1.33%
KOSDAQ838.41813.50-2.97%

Base is the previous trading day's close, Aug. 28

DateKOSPIChangeKOSDAQChangeShare of advancers
08/316,820.02+0.46%834.29-0.49%40.2%
09/016,835.80+0.23%821.25-1.56%49.3%
09/026,562.72-3.99%803.98-2.10%15.4%
09/036,579.48+0.26%790.21-1.71%46.6%
09/046,687.21+1.64%813.50+2.95%60.4%

Share of advancers is based on KOSPI · numerator = advancers plus limit-up stocks · denominator = all stocks including unchanged names

Weekly Industries · 46 KRX Industry Indices
IndustryWeeklyIndustryWeekly
Medical & Precision Equipment · KOSPI+3.38%Pharmaceuticals · KOSDAQ-7.27%
Non-Metals · KOSDAQ+2.58%Construction · KOSPI-7.08%
Transportation & Warehousing · KOSDAQ+2.57%General Services · KOSDAQ-6.49%
Publishing & Media Reproduction · KOSDAQ+2.33%Financials · KOSDAQ-6.16%
Telecommunications · KOSDAQ+2.31%Metals · KOSPI-5.87%
Machinery & Equipment · KOSDAQ+1.33%Machinery & Equipment · KOSPI-4.62%
Entertainment & Culture · KOSDAQ+0.70%Transportation Equipment & Parts · KOSPI-4.48%
Paper & Wood · KOSPI+0.56%Chemicals · KOSDAQ-4.13%
Transportation & Warehousing · KOSPI+0.16%Telecommunications · KOSPI-3.51%
Financials · KOSPI+0.15%Construction · KOSDAQ-4.07%
Real Estate · KOSPI+0.11%General Services · KOSPI-3.63%
Chemicals · KOSPI-0.92%Pharmaceuticals · KOSDAQ-7.27%
Electrical & Electronics · KOSPI-1.14%Food, Beverage & Tobacco · KOSPI-3.41%
Electricity & Gas · KOSPI-1.86%Insurance · KOSPI-3.09%
IT Services · KOSPI-2.56%Electrical & Electronics · KOSDAQ-2.81%
Securities · KOSPI-2.72%Pharmaceuticals · KOSPI-2.74%

Of 46 industries, 11 rose and 35 fell for the week · calculated from Aug. 28 close to Sep. 4 close · industry returns are market-cap-weighted index returns, not sector net-inflow amounts

Weekly Themes · 39 Official KRX Theme Indices
ThemeWeeklyThemeWeekly
KRX AI Semiconductors+0.94%K-AI Biotech KOSDAQ-9.11%
KRX Semiconductor Top 15+0.70%Akros AI Power Infrastructure-7.91%
Real Estate REITs & Infrastructure-0.47%K-AI Defense TOP5+-7.62%
KOSPI Dividend Growth 50-0.54%Technology-Transfer Biotech-7.44%
Financials & Holdings High Dividend-0.56%KOSDAQ TOP 10-5.85%
KRX Blue Chip 25-1.14%KRX Bio TOP 10-5.40%
K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+-1.23%KRX Internet TOP 10-4.40%
KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10-2.19%KOSDAQ TOP 15-4.31%
KRX Electric Vehicle Top 15-2.33%KOSDAQ 150 Governance-4.13%
KRX Shipbuilding TOP10-2.35%KRX BBIG-3.65%
Korea Sovereign AI-2.95%K-AI Secondary Battery-3.42%

Of 39 themes, 2 rose and 37 fell for the week · theme indices are a separate series from industry indices, so do not mix their rankings

Weekly Investor Flows · Total KOSPI Net Buying
Category8/319/19/29/39/4Weekly
Foreigners-KRW 639.9bn-KRW 491.9bn-KRW 1.9096tn-KRW 423.2bn+KRW 479.3bn-KRW 2.985tn
Institutions-KRW 793.1bn-KRW 634.0bn-KRW 2.0438tn-KRW 215.3bn+KRW 1.6691tn-KRW 2.016tn
Retail-KRW 144.3bn-KRW 539.8bn+KRW 2.3029tn-KRW 955.2bn-KRW 3.7224tn-KRW 3.060tn
Other side in the two stocks+KRW 1.5454tn+KRW 1.5914tn+KRW 1.5623tn+KRW 1.5403tn+KRW 1.5272tnNot calculated

KRX closing investor-trading data · KOSPI cash market · weekly column is the confirmed five-session KRX cumulative figure; it may differ slightly from the sum of daily values because of rounding

“Other side in the two stocks” means buying in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix outside the three investor groups · Aug. 31 is a direct other-corporation tally; Sep. 1–4 are back-solved from stock-level net buying by the three groups · no weekly total is calculated because the series differ · other foreign and government/local-government accounts may be mixed with other corporations, so buyback purchases are not isolated

KOSPI turnover · 8/31 KRW 26.04tn · 9/1 KRW 17.48tn · 9/2 KRW 18.57tn · 9/3 KRW 18.89tn · 9/4 KRW 17.46tn

Sources · Data Definitions
  • Weekly indices, industries and themes · Korea Exchange KRX Index, 46 industry indices and 39 official theme indices · closing levels for Aug. 31–Sep. 4 · Aug. 28 base derived by subtracting the daily change from the Aug. 31 close
  • KOSPI, KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ · Naver Finance and Korea Exchange confirmed closes · Aug. 28 KOSPI 200 close uses the prior issue's base value
  • Daily breadth, turnover, total investor flows and program trading · Korea Exchange confirmed closes and Naver Finance
  • Five-session cumulative investor flows · Korea Exchange, confirmed Aug. 31–Sep. 4
  • August exports/imports · released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Korea Customs Service at 09:00 on Sep. 1 · definitions of “excluding semiconductors” differ across Daishin, Hanwha, Yuanta and Eugene, so they are not merged into one figure
  • July current account · Bank of Korea, preliminary July 2026 balance of payments
  • August CPI · Statistics Korea, released 08:00 on Sep. 2
  • Korean Treasury yields · Sep. 2 close · closing table based on Yonhap Infomax data
  • Broadcom FY3Q · company release and media reports · after the U.S. close on Sep. 2 ET
  • U.S.–Iran armed conflict · media reports citing U.S. Central Command and Kuwaiti military statements · some damage estimates remain unconfirmed
  • U.S. market · Sep. 3 U.S. close · U.S. 10Y, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and VIX · WTI $92.2 is the Sep. 2 close as compiled in Hana Securities' utilities weekly · sources differ by asset, so the figures are not combined or used to calculate weights
  • USD/KRW · Korean FX market 15:30 close · Aug. 28 KRW 1,372.5 · Sep. 4 KRW 1,350.4
  • U.S. August employment report · released by the U.S. Department of Labor at 21:30 on Sep. 4 KST · after the Korean market close
  • U.S. August PPI · release date only · YoY consensus differs between broker reports and economic-calendar compilations, so no single reference estimate was chosen and no figure is shown
  • “Buying outside the three investor groups” and “other side in the two stocks” refer to the same opposite-side amount relative to the sum of retail, foreign and institutional net buying · because this does not isolate treasury-share purchases, the main text does not call it “buybacks” · “buyback” is used only for the actual SK hynix and Samsung Electronics acquisition programs
  • September hike probability · rate-futures-implied readings such as CME FedWatch · values vary by observation time and source, so the main text always gives them with dates
  • 2027 budget proposal · government proposal dated Sep. 1, 2026 · before National Assembly review · gross KTB issuance KRW 222.8tn · net issuance KRW 96.3tn
  • 2026 tax reform proposal · government bill approved by Cabinet on Sep. 1 · “share-price suppression” valuation method moved to the National Assembly and remains undecided
  • Second phase of amended Commercial Act · Sep. 10 · applies to listed companies with total assets of at least KRW 2tn
  • 12th electricity-plan figures · values from the fifth public-discussion stage, not yet final · 12th transmission-grid investment of KRW 114.8–124.3tn and private BT of KRW 34.8–44.3tn are Hana Securities estimates
  • KEPCO electricity-bill prepayment KRW 25tn · merger of five generation companies into one entity · merger of Korea National Oil Corp. and KOGAS · all are under consultation/review and not final
  • Semiconductor tariffs · remarks from the U.S. Commerce Secretary in a Sep. 2 local-time interview · tariff rates, covered products, country exemptions and implementation timing all remain undecided
  • U.S. national-emergency executive order on the power grid · signed Aug. 26 · implementing-rule deadline Dec. 24 · no actual prohibited items at present
  • SK On–NeoVolta agreement · 9GWh confirmed · contract value undisclosed · roughly KRW 1.5tn is an industry estimate
  • Test-equipment orders · disclosed values compiled in Hanwha Investment & Securities' Sep. 2 report · DI KRW 142.3bn · Digital Frontier KRW 232.1bn · YC KRW 255.2bn · Exicon KRW 101.8bn
  • Target prices · reports published by Hanwha 8/31; iM, Eugene, Hana and DS 9/1; Daishin, IBK and Yuanta 9/2; Hana 9/3; Eugene and Kiwoom 9/4 · Snowshagal does not create proprietary target prices
  • Calendar · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule · ECB monetary-policy meeting schedule · U.S. Treasury buyback announcements · Korea Zinc EGM notice · U.S. data times converted to Korea time
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