2026.08.18 ~ 08.21
SnowShagal· WEEKLYwww.snowshagal.com
Same inputs,
different answers
Two record shareholder-return plans· Different price reactionsFour sessions sold by both foreigners and institutions· The index ended nearly flatAug. 24 Iran blockade plan· Aug. 27 NVIDIA and BOK meeting
KOSPI−0.93%6,977.94 → 6,912.95
KOSDAQ−7.25%864.65 → 801.94
Foreign Investors· KOSPI−KRW 1.87tnInstitutions also −KRW 2.36tn
Published Aug. 23, 2026· 9 STORIES01 · The Week in Review ↓
01· THE WEEKLast week ended here
01
Foreigners and institutions
both sold
The index ended nearly flat
Three of four sessions moved by more than 2 percentage points.The weekly return looks flat not because there was no direction, but because the move was reversed within two days.
- KOSPI −0.93%· KOSDAQ −7.25% · Four trading sessions because Aug. 17 was a holiday
- Intraday, from the Aug. 18 high 7,216.62to the Aug. 19 low 6,400.81spanned 815.81 points
- Foreign Investors −KRW 1.87tn· Institutions −KRW 2.36tn · Both investor groups were net sellers
- Individuals took the other side +KRW 1.94tn · Samsung Electronics was the stock that rose +2.55%· SK Hynix +5.17%
FOREIGN· Daily Foreign Net Buying in KOSPI
Tue. 8/18+KRW 91.4bn
Wed. 8/19−KRW 3.49tn
Thu. 8/20+KRW 1.71tn
Fri. 8/21−KRW 176.1bn
Center line = KRW 0· Buying expanded as the week progressed· Naver Finance investor-flow data
Foreign Investors−KRW 1.87tnA reversal from +KRW 6.54tn last week
Institutions−KRW 2.36tnNet sellers in three of four sessions
Retail Investors+KRW 1.94tnIndividuals stood on the buy side
Share of Advancing Stocks· 8/20 → 8/2157.8 → 21.3%KOSPI· One-third in a single day
KOSPI · Naver Finance investor-flow data. The sidecar was triggered by KOSPI selling on Aug. 19 · KOSPI buying on Aug. 20 · and KOSDAQ selling on Aug. 21, three sessions in a row.
- Tuesday intraday 7,216.62 · above 7,200 for the first time since the July 15 close
- Wednesday opened with a gap down · KOSPI 200 futuresfell −6.02%and triggered a sell-sidecar
- The trigger was the overnight Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −4.98%· Micron −6.98%
- Thursday reversed · buy-sidecar at 09:57 · opened 209.17 points above the previous close
Both the selloff and the rebound started in the same place: semiconductors.
- Friday split by market · KOSPI +0.88%· KOSDAQ −4.63%
- That day KOSPI had 683 decliners versus 193 advancers · the index still closed higher
- KOSDAQ triggered a sell-sidecar around 10:05 · all ten largest stocks by market cap fell
- KRW·USD/KRW daytime-session 15:30 close KRW 1,386.5 · Below KRW 1,400 for a third straight session
One Takeaway
What held up the index was not flow, but corporate announcements.
In a week when foreigners and institutions both sold, the index closed at −0.93%.
The rebound began with SK Hynix's treasury-share resolution after the Aug. 19 close, followed by Samsung Electronics' board meeting on Aug. 21.
The difference in price reaction created by the two announcements is in Section 03 · the split inside the sector is in Section 06.
Four-session record· Index and Flows
| Date | KOSPI | KOSDAQ | Advancing Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue. 8/18 | −1.55% | −3.52% | 22.0% |
| Wed. 8/19 | −5.80% | −1.17% | 19.1% |
| Thu. 8/20 | +5.89% | +1.99% | 57.8% |
| Fri. 8/21 | +0.88% | −4.63% | 21.3% |
| Investor | 8/18 | 8/19 | 8/20 | 8/21 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Investors | +0.74 | +4.64 | −2.27 | −1.17 | +1.94 |
| Foreign Investors | +0.09 | −3.49 | +1.71 | −0.18 | −1.87 |
| Institutions | −0.80 | −1.32 | −0.49 | +0.25 | −2.36 |
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue. 8/18 | 7,127.77 | 7,216.62 | 6,788.78 | 6,869.83 |
| Wed. 8/19 | 6,528.77 | 6,614.39 | 6,400.81 | 6,471.17 |
| Thu. 8/20 | 6,680.34 | 6,904.55 | 6,600.09 | 6,852.58 |
| Fri. 8/21 | 6,759.95 | 6,954.12 | 6,742.44 | 6,912.95 |
| The weekly high was 7,216.62 on Aug. 18· The low was 6,400.81 on Aug. 19 · a four-session range of 815.81 points. | ||||
| Date | Turnover | What to read |
|---|---|---|
| Tue. 8/18 | KRW 29.64tn | Weekly high |
| Wed. 8/19 | KRW 22.94tn | 82% of the five-day average · turnover fell even on a 5.80% down day |
| Thu. 8/20 | KRW 25.79tn | 92% of the five-day average · still below average on a 5.89% up day |
| Fri. 8/21 | KRW 28.69tn | 101% of the five-day average |
| Turnover was below average on the two sessions with the largest index moves · the volatility did not come from broader participation. | ||
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S1
02· WEEK AHEAD8/24 ~ 8/28
02
Next Week's Map ·
One each
for five straight days
Last week had no major macro release.Next week has one every day from Monday through Friday.
Thursday carries the most weight.
What to Watch Next
8.24The U.S. economic-blockade plan on Iran08· If oil rises again, refining benefits while airlines·and chemicals are pressured
8.26U.S. July PCE inflation· Second estimate of Q2 GDP21:30 Korea time· Consensus 3.6%· Core 3.3%
8.27NVIDIA Earnings· BOK Monetary Policy Board· Jackson Hole opens the same day04· Consensus expects a 25bp BOK hike· 3.00%
8.28Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech23:00 Korea time· The U.S. employment benchmark-revision release comes at the same time
Last week had four Korean trading sessions· Next week has five.Five-day metrics will not be placed side by side with last week because the observation windows differ.
Blockade planOil→Inflation→Discount Rate
NVDAAI Demand→Memory→Semiconductors
BOK Monetary Policy BoardKRW→translation gains→Exporters
MACRO· Iran economic-blockade plan
Monday, Aug. 24 local time· The first event to reach the Korean session
Numbers
U.S. · Iran · the 60-day memorandum expired Aug. 16–17 · no extension agreement has been confirmed.
Transit restrictions have remained in place since the Strait of Hormuz was reclosed in April · 73 vessels transited during the week of Aug. 10–16.Before the war: about 130 vessels per day · Lloyd's List Intelligence
Transit restrictions have remained in place since the Strait of Hormuz was reclosed in April · 73 vessels transited during the week of Aug. 10–16.
If the blockade is severe
Oil rises further · U.S. long-term yields rise again · pressure on Korean airlines · chemicals · growth stocks
If negotiations resume
Oil reverses · September hike probability falls · favorable for semiconductors · internet stocks
Next Inflection Point· NVIDIA earnings ·
U.S. July inflation
Korea: night of Aug. 26 into early Aug. 27· Two releases in sequence
Numbers
U.S. July PCE
Aug. 26 at 21:30 Korea time · released with the second estimate of Q2 GDP.
NVIDIA FY2027 Q2
Results expected around 1:20 p.m. local time on Aug. 26 · around 05:20 Korea time on Aug. 27 · earnings call at 06:00 Korea time.Q2 guidance: $91bn ±2% · revenue consensus: $91.8bn
The key question is whether Q3 guidance exceeds the $103.1bn consensus.
Aug. 26 at 21:30 Korea time · released with the second estimate of Q2 GDP.
NVIDIA FY2027 Q2
Results expected around 1:20 p.m. local time on Aug. 26 · around 05:20 Korea time on Aug. 27 · earnings call at 06:00 Korea time.
The key question is whether Q3 guidance exceeds the $103.1bn consensus.
Softer inflation + high-end guidance
Confirms both the case for a hold and AI demand · favorable to all three checks in Section 04
Inflation reaccelerates
September hike probability rises again · another version of the Aug. 19 pattern
KOREA· BOK Monetary Policy Board· KRW· Investor Day
Wednesday, Aug. 26· Thursday, Aug. 27
BOK
First meeting since the July hike from 2.50% to 2.75% · consensus calls for another 25bp hike to 3.00%.
Updated economic projections are also due · the 2026 growth forecast of 2.6% set in May could be raised to around 3%.
USD/KRW closed Aug. 21 at 1,386.5 · below 1,400 for a third straight day.
Updated economic projections are also due · the 2026 growth forecast of 2.6% set in May could be raised to around 3%.
USD/KRW closed Aug. 21 at 1,386.5 · below 1,400 for a third straight day.
Hyundai Motor Investor Day
Aug. 26 · 2028 robot mass-production roadmap · Georgia plant ramp-up plan · plan to establish a robot-manufacturing subsidiary in Q4 · linked to Section 05
If the won strengthens further
Pressure on translated earnings for exporters · favorable for foreign demand for KRW assets · the direction is not one-sided
Three Calls for Next Week
- Does the announcement-driven rally persist?
SK Hynix's treasury-share purchase runs for about three months from Aug. 20 · the thesis holds only while execution is confirmed. - Does KOSDAQ hold 800?
Aug. 21 close 801.94 · if individual flows keep shifting toward large-cap semiconductors, downside support thins. - Does oil reopen the inflation debate?
Aug. 24 blockade plan· WTI Aug. 21 close $87.06 · already an upside pressure on August inflation.
Schedule· Next Week and Beyond
| Next Trading Week· 8/24 ~ 8/28 | |
|---|---|
| Mon. 8/24 | U.S. unveils Iran economic-blockade plan· The scope of requested allied participation is the key |
| Tue. 8/25 | Germany Q2 GDP |
| Wed. 8/26 | U.S. July PCE inflation· Q2 GDP second estimate (21:30 Korea time)· Hyundai Motor CEO Investor Day· NVIDIA earnings (local afternoon) |
| Thu. 8/27 | NVIDIA earnings release around 05:20· Earnings call 06:00· Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board· Jackson Hole Symposium opens |
| Fri. 8/28 | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole keynote 23:00· At the same time: U.S. BLS Q1 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and preliminary March employment benchmark revision· SK Hynix quarterly-dividend ex-date · KRW 375 per share |
| Beyond That· 8/31 ~ September | |
| Mon. 8/31 | MSCI August review applied at the close |
| 9/9 | First application of expanded U.S. Treasury long-end buybacks· To remain in place through the Nov. 4 quarterly refunding plan |
| 9/15~16 | September FOMC· Meeting with updated economic projections |
| Jackson Hole theme: how financial innovation affects payments and policy · Warsh keynote scheduled for 10 a.m. local time Aug. 28 on the Fed's official calendar· 23:00 Korea time the same day · the detailed program will be released the evening before the symposium opens. | |
September meeting probability· One-week move
| Date | Hold | 25bp Hike |
|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 8/18 | About 65% | About 35% |
| 8/19 minutes released | About 65% | About 35% |
| 8/21 | About 60% | About 40% |
| CME FedWatchCited from the source above · collection times differ by source, so readings from Aug. 18 onward are rounded · the hike probability rose about 10 percentage points over the week. | ||
The July meeting minutes released Aug. 19 showed that many members judged further tightening would be necessary if inflation did not slow sufficiently.
The same day, the U.S. 30-year yield fell to 5.19% before returning to 5.27% within two days.
The divergence between long-term yields and Korean semiconductors is in Section 04.
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S2
03· RETURNKRW 40tn and KRW 90–110tn
03
In the same week came
two record-sized plans
Two companies announced record shareholder-return plans in the same week.Samsung Electronics' plan was more than twice as large.
SK Hynix had the bigger initial price reaction.
- SK Hynix board, Aug. 19 · 24.07 million treasury shares · 3.3% of shares outstanding · KRW 40.00434tn · all shares to be cancelled after purchase
- The market had expected KRW 20–30tn · the announcement exceeded that range by KRW 10–20tnand arrived earlier than the Aug. 7 indication
- Samsung Electronics board, Aug. 21 · KRW 90–110tn· but only the roughly KRW 30tn Q3 cash dividend has a fixed timing so far
- The price reaction: SK Hynix on Aug. 20 +12.73%· Samsung Electronics in the Aug. 21 regular session +3.87%
- After the announcement, Samsung Electronics fell in after-hours trading to KRW 273,500 · −2.84% versus the KRW 281,500 regular-session close
The initial reactions differed less on size than on whether cancellation was explicit and timing was fixed.
- SK Hynix changed the wording of its return policy for cumulative free cash flow from “up to 50%” to “at least 50%”· the former ceiling became the new floor
- It also specified the denominator · cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures on property, plant and equipment · M&A spending is excluded from the calculation
- Samsung Electronics described the same 50% as execution of an existing commitment· it did not raise the threshold
ⓐ SK Hynix: full cancellation
ⓑ Samsung Electronics: timing split into three stages
ⓒ Both are record highs in Korea
After the 8/19 closeKRW 40tn8/20 Korea session+12.73%
After the 8/21 closeKRW 90–110tnRegular session +3.87%After-hours −2.84%
Top: SK Hynix· Bottom: Samsung Electronics. The regular-session return occurred before the board resolution was disclosed· while the after-hours move came after the resolution was known · the sequence is why two different trading sessions are shown on the same line.
The first reaction asked less about size than about how the cash is returned.
SK Hynix disclosed the number of shares to be repurchased · whether they would be cancelled · and the purchase period all at once.
Samsung Electronics fixed the timing only for KRW 30tn of the total.
The method and amount for the remaining KRW 60–80tn were deferred to the January 2027 board meeting.
Six numbers
SK Hynix treasury sharesKRW 40tn24.07 million shares· Full cancellation
Share of shares outstanding3.3%Purchase 8/20–11/19· Cancellation within 1–2 weeks after completion
Return policyAt least 50%Cumulative 2025–2027 Free Cash Flow
Samsung Electronics totalKRW 90–110tnAbout five times the KRW 20.3tn announced in 2020
Q3 cash dividendAbout KRW 30tnDetails at the late-October board meeting
Treasury shares for employee compensationAbout KRW 15tnBy Nov. 21· Separate from the headline total
Two announcements· side by side
| Item | SK Hynix | Samsung Electronics |
|---|---|---|
| Board meeting | Aug. 19, 16:05 | After the Aug. 21 close |
| Total size | KRW 40.00434tn | KRW 90–110tn |
| Method | Treasury-share purchase followed by full cancellation | Cash dividends as the core method · whether share repurchases and cancellations are included remains undecided |
| Quantity | 24.07 million shares· 3.3% of shares outstanding | Not applicable |
| Period | About three months from Aug. 20 | By stage· See table below |
| Return policy | At least 50% of cumulative 2025–2027 free cash flow | Execution of the commitment to return 50% of 2024–2026 free cash flow |
| Net cash at end-Q2 | About KRW 69tn | Not applicable |
| 2027 free-cash-flow estimate | KRW 263tn· Half would be KRW 130tn | Not applicable |
| Based on the two companies' announcements · Samsung Electronics had not fixed the cancellation amount or method at the time of announcement. | ||
| Category | Size | Confirmation Date |
|---|---|---|
| ① Q3 2026 cash dividend· including the regular dividend | About KRW 30tn | Late-October 2026 board meeting |
| ② Remaining amount · cash dividends, share repurchases and cancellations | About KRW 60–80tn | January 2027 board meeting |
| ③ Treasury-share purchase for employee compensation | About KRW 15tn | By Nov. 21, 2026· Approved separately from ① and ② |
| Item ③ is separate from the headline total above · adding it to that total would double-count the amount. | ||
Why the methods differ· Ownership constraints
Cancelling treasury shares reduces shares outstanding and automatically raises the ownership percentage of remaining shareholders.
Samsung Life and Samsung Fire & Marine together hold close to 10% of Samsung Electronics.
A large cancellation could run into regulatory limits on insurers' holdings of affiliate shares, according to market commentary.
| Stock | Close | Return |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung Life Insurance | KRW 328,500 | +10.61% |
| Samsung Electronics preferred | KRW 207,000 | +8.26% |
| Samsung C&T | KRW 395,500 | +5.75% |
| Samsung Electronics | KRW 281,500 | +3.87% |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | KRW 1,316,000 | −5.73% |
| Stocks read as dividend beneficiaries led the gains· Preferred shares and insurers rose more than the common stock · even within the Samsung group, Samsung Electro-Mechanics fell. | ||
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S3
04· LEAD SECTORSemiconductors
04
A move of
22 percentage points in two days
U.S. semiconductors fell overnight and Korea reversed the next day.But on a weekly basis,
the U.S. and Korea moved in opposite directions.
SK Hynix· 8/19 → 8/20−9.75 → +12.73%22.48 percentage points over two days
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index · weekly−5.45%12,417.05 → 11,740.37
Semiconductor exports · Aug. 1–20+198.8%$26.03bn· 47.2% of total exports· Korea Customs Service
The same sector moved in opposite directions in the two markets · what lifted Korea was not an industry indicator, but corporate announcements.
- In the prior week, foreigners bought roughly KRW 8tn of KOSPI stocks over four sessions, and 77% went to the two mega caps · Samsung Electronics KRW 3.31tn · SK Hynix KRW 2.86tn
- At the same time, margin-loan balances fell from KRW 38.6tn on June 24 to KRW 27.4tn on Aug. 4 · −29.1% · leaving a thinner pool of leveraged positions to absorb selling
- Aug. 18 U.S. · Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −4.98%· Micron −6.98% · a reversal after gaining roughly 18% over the prior five sessions
- Aug. 19 Korea · Semiconductors·and Semiconductor Equipment −8.42%ranked 78th of 79 sectors· with 29 advancers versus 137 decliners inside the sector
- Aug. 20 · the same sector +10.51%ranked No. 1· and flipped to 114 advancers versus 48 decliners
- Aug. 21 · the sector was up +2.97%but inside it 14 stocks rose and 152 fell
The Benchmark This Week Set
The sector rose · yet 152 stocks inside it fell.
On Aug. 21, Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment was +2.97%, ranking 4th of 79 sectors.
Yet only 14 stocks inside the sector rose while 152 fell.
The index was lifted by just two names: Samsung Electronics +3.87% and SK Hynix +2.31%.
A day when the sector return did not represent the condition of the sector. The same pattern repeated across the whole market in Section 06.
Areas to Watch Next· In order of nearest confirmation date
Memory Majors· the floor created by corporate announcements
Is the executed treasury-share purchase amount confirmed in disclosures?
- Weekly Samsung Electronics +2.55% KRW 281,500· SK Hynix +5.17% KRW 1,730,000
- Aug. 19 lows: Samsung Electronics KRW 247,500· SK Hynix KRW 1,500,000 · treasury-share resolution after that day's close
- SK Hynix purchase period: about three months from Aug. 20 · as long as execution continues, there is one additional buyer in the market
- On Aug. 21, institutions ended four straight days of selling and turned net buyers · SK Hynix +KRW 111.4bn
- Foreigners turned back to selling after one day · but Samsung Electronics still saw +KRW 439.4bn of net buying
- For the week, combined institutional and foreign flows in Semiconductors & Equipment were −KRW 1.5398tn · over the latest month, −KRW 3.5192tn
SK HynixTreasury-share resolution 8/19Samsung ElectronicsShareholder-return resolution 8/21
Equipment·Materials, components and equipment· Diverging from the two mega caps
Does the number of advancers broaden beyond the two mega caps?
- Only 14 semiconductor-sector stocks rose Aug. 21 · in practice, the two mega caps plus a handful of names
- The same day, Samsung Electro-Mechanics −5.73%had the largest decline among the ten biggest stocks by market cap
- Electronic Equipment & Instruments −6.04%· Communications Equipment −4.89%· Display Equipment & Parts −2.92%
- Treasury shares are company-specific catalysts · Friday showed that the effect did not spread across the whole sector
Samsung Electro-MechanicsWonik IPSHPSP
Divergence from the U.S.· Opposite directions on the week
Does NVIDIA's Aug. 27 guidance narrow this divergence?
Four-session path of Korea's two mega caps· Versus the Aug. 14 close
SK HynixSamsung ElectronicsPhiladelphia Semiconductor Index
The two Korean stocks show a four-session path· The U.S. semiconductor index is shown as one weekly return point · the measurement windows differ by one day, so they are not joined by the same line.
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index · weekly −5.45% · while the two Korean mega caps rose over the same period
- On Aug. 21, all three major U.S. indexes rose, but semiconductors alone −0.51%· NVIDIA −0.98%· Micron −0.77%
- SK Hynix ADR was +0.20% on Aug. 21 · the U.S. market was effectively unmoved by the KRW 40tn resolution
- The backdrop was U.S. long-term rates · the 30-year yield closed at 5.31% on Aug. 17, its highest close since 2007 · it finished the week at 5.27% on Aug. 21
- On Aug. 19, the U.S. Treasury announced expanded long-end buybacks, sending the 30-year yield down to 5.19%· but within two days it returned to 5.27%and finished above its pre-announcement level
U.S. 30-year8/17 5.31%SOXWeekly −5.45%
Evidence That Strengthens the Case
- Executed treasury-share purchasesare confirmed in disclosures and the additional buyer remains
- Sector breadth · the number of advancers recovers from the 14 seen on Aug. 21
- NVIDIA guidancecomes in at the high end of consensus
- U.S. long-term yieldssettle below 5.27% on the 30-year
- Foreign buying resumes · reversing the Aug. 21 −KRW 176.1bn in a single day
Evidence That Weakens the Case
- Only the two mega caps rise· The Aug. 21 split of 14 advancers versus 152 decliners persists next week
- Foreign selling extends· The one-day return to selling on Aug. 21 becomes persistent
- U.S. long yields rise again· The 30-year retests 5.31%, the Aug. 17 level
- Further U.S. semiconductor declines· The weekly −5.45% decline continues next week
- Samsung Electronics cancellation amount remains unconfirmed· No method is specified even at the late-October board meeting
Next Week
Aug. 27 NVIDIA earnings· Number of advancing stocks in the sector· Whether foreign selling persists
August–October
SK Hynix treasury-share execution disclosures· Aug. 31 MSCI review· Samsung Electronics late-October board meeting
3–6 Months
2027 server-DRAM volume· HBM generation transition· Samsung Electronics January 2027 board meeting
Stocks named are those appearing in disclosures and confirmed market prices · not recommendations to buy specific stocks.
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S4
05· SECTORSThree Sectors to Watch Alongside
05
Where semiconductors
failed to carry the market
Two stocks lifted the index on Friday.Three areas moved backward the same day
Weekly figures are finalized from the KRX Information Data System · Aug. 14 close to Aug. 21 close. KRX Automobiles −9.35% · KRX K-AI Secondary Batteries −9.28% · KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ −11.81%.
All three lagged the KOSPI's −0.93% by a wide margin · none was a winner this week; they are candidates whose prices could diverge next week.
Motor Vehicles·Components
Condition· Strike ends as a one-off· Aug. 26 robot roadmap is quantified / watch· Strike extends· Further KRW appreciation
- Final Weekly Data· KRX Automobiles −9.35% · 8.42 percentage points below the KOSPI's −0.93% · Transport Equipment·Components −9.07%.
- Aug. 18· Hyundai Motor −4.0%· Hyundai Mobis −5.3%· HL Mando −6.8%showed that parts fell together with automakers.
- Aug. 21· All 12 stocks in the auto sector fell · the same day Hyundai Motor's union held an eight-hour full strike · the first in ten years· involving about 39,000 workers.
- Why Next Week?· CEO Investor Day on Aug. 26 · 2028 robot mass-production roadmap· Georgia plant ramp-up plan· and a planned Q4 robot-manufacturing subsidiary.
- On the other side,· KRW·USD/KRW stayed below 1,400 for three straight sessions · a headwind to translated export earnings.
Hyundai Motor8/26 Investor DayKiaHyundai Mobis
Secondary Batteries·KOSDAQ
Condition· KOSDAQ holds 800· Individuals return to net buying / watch· KOSDAQ breaks below 800· Concentration into large-cap semiconductors persists
- Final Weekly Data· KRX K-AI Secondary Batteries −9.28%· Secondary Battery TOP10 −7.47%· EV Top 15 −7.90% · KOSDAQ −7.25%.
- Aug. 21· KOSDAQ −4.63%triggered a sell-sidecar around 10:05 · 282 advancers versus 1,378 decliners · all ten largest stocks by market cap fell.
- Representative stock· LG Energy Solution KRW 343,500 −4.05% · third-largest decline among the top ten stocks by market cap.
- Demand points the other way· Global June energy storage system new installations 50.8GWh(+50.8% YoY)· North America alone +76.0% · China −14.6%was the only region to contract.
- So what diverges?· Demand is growing while prices fall · a period in which individual flows inside KOSDAQ are shifting toward large-cap semiconductors.
LG Energy SolutionSamsung SDIEcoPro BM
Aerospace·Defense·Shipbuilding
Condition· Sector reaction after the Aug. 24 blockade plan· Broader advancers / watch· The market continues to ignore the U.S. order win
- Catalyst· On Aug. 18 local time, the U.S. Army selected Hanwha Defense USA as a next-generation self-propelled-howitzer prototype contractor · the Army release itself confirms that the award was competitive.
- Size · this contract is $100.3m · cumulative ceiling including options $262.9m · up to 18 wheeled self-propelled-howitzer prototypes · intended to replace as many as 498 towed guns
- Competitors· Rheinmetall·BAE Systems·KNDS·and General Dynamics also competed, according to Daishin·and Yuanta reports dated Aug. 20 · the Army release did not name the unsuccessful bidders.
- But price moved the other way· Weekly KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ −11.81%ranked at the bottom among themes · Shipbuilding TOP10 −10.50%.
- Aug. 21· Aerospace & Defense −6.90%ranked 78th of 79 sectors · 0 advancers· 3 unchanged· 30 decliners · Shipbuilding −4.11%.
- Flows· Korea Aerospace Industries KRW 130,000 −3.5%· Short-Selling Share 34.0%, the fourth-highest share.
Hanwha AerospaceU.S. howitzer prototype selection· 8/18Korea Aerospace IndustriesHD Hyundai Heavy Industries
Aug. 21 sector leaders and laggards· Naver Finance · 79 sectors
| Sector | Return | Advancing·Unchanged·Declining |
|---|---|---|
| Life Insurance | +8.88% | 1·1·2 |
| Wireless Telecom Services | +4.80% | 2·1·1 |
| Non-Life Insurance | +3.55% | 7·0·5 |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | +2.97% | 14·5·152 |
| Internet & Catalog Retail | +2.95% | 2·0·4 |
| Sector | Return | Advancing·Unchanged·Declining |
|---|---|---|
| Energy Equipment & Services | −7.07% | 3·4·27 |
| Aerospace & Defense | −6.90% | 0·3·30 |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | −6.04% | 9·7·90 |
| Stationery | −5.98% | 0·0·1 |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | −5.76% | 5·4·32 |
| Four of the top five came from insurance · telecom · internet · a day when price concentrated in areas read through dividends and share repurchases. | ||
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S5
06· MARKET LOGICHow to read inside sectors
06
Even when the sector rose,
its internals split
Last week, the No. 1 sector changed every day
This week, the split happened inside the sectors themselves.One sector return alone
does not tell you the state of that sector.
Even on a day when the index rose,· only one stock in five advanced.
The same thing happened once more inside sectors.
The same thing happened once more inside sectors.
Share of Advancing Stocks· KOSPI
Four-session average 30.1% · even on Aug. 21, when the index rose, only one stock in five advanced.
Share of advancers inside the semiconductor sector
Same four sessions· Inside the semiconductor sector · on Aug. 21 the sector was +2.97%, yet the number of advancers was less than one in ten.
| Date | No. 1 That Day | A different day for the same sector |
|---|---|---|
| Tue. 8/18 | Shipping Companies +6.14% | 8/20 −2.42%fell into the lower ranks |
| Wed. 8/19 | Leisure Equipment & Products +3.09% | On 8/18, −5.57%it was among the bottom five |
| Thu. 8/20 | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment +10.51% | The previous day, −8.42%it ranked 78th |
| Fri. 8/21 | Life Insurance +8.88% | On 8/19, −9.50%it ranked 79th, dead last |
| Zero repeats among the No. 1 sectors over four sessions · following the same pattern over all five sessions last week · twice now, daily sector returns have failed as a way to choose the following week's leaders. | ||
- Life Insurance moved within four sessions from 3rd → 79th → 2nd → 1st · the same sector moved between last place and first place
- Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment moved 21st → 78th → 1st → 4th
- When sector rankings move this way, the ranking itself carries little information
- The one thing that remains is how many stocks inside the sector actually advanced
The usable gauge this week is not the sector return, but the number of advancing stocks.
| Date | Sector return | Sector rank | Advancers vs. decliners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue. 8/18 | −0.93% | 21st | 52 vs. 113 |
| Wed. 8/19 | −8.42% | 78th | 29 vs. 137 |
| Thu. 8/20 | +10.51% | 1st | 114 vs. 48 |
| Fri. 8/21 | +2.97% | 4th | 14 vs. 152 |
| Both Aug. 20 and Aug. 21 were up days · yet the number of advancing stocks collapsed from 114 to 14 · identical return direction concealed opposite internal conditions. | |||
| Sector | Weekly | vs. KOSPI |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | +6.82% | +7.75%p |
| Electrical & Electronics | +1.46% | +2.39%p |
| Distribution | +1.34% | +2.27%p |
| Telecom | +0.05% | +0.98%p |
| Construction | −7.99% | −7.06%p |
| Transportation Equipment·Components | −9.07% | −8.14%p |
| Machinery·Equipment | −10.44% | −9.51%p |
| Medical·Precision Instruments | −10.94% | −10.01%p |
| The four sectors that beat the KOSPI's −0.93% were Insurance · Electrical & Electronics · Distribution · Telecom · every other sector lagged the index. Large Caps −0.54% · Mid Caps −5.81% · Small Caps −3.98% also show how sharply the week split by size. | ||
Themes and KOSDAQ· Final Weekly Data
| Index | Weekly |
|---|---|
| KRX Blue Chip 25 | +0.60% |
| KRX Semiconductor Top 15 | +0.52% |
| KRX Internet TOP 10 | −7.21% |
| KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10 | −7.47% |
| KRX AI Power Infrastructure | −9.10% |
| KRX K-AI Secondary Batteries | −9.28% |
| KRX Shipbuilding TOP10 | −10.50% |
| KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ | −11.81% |
| Sector | Weekly |
|---|---|
| Textiles·Apparel | +6.73% |
| Telecom | +6.13% |
| KOSDAQ Index | −7.25% |
| Pharmaceuticals | −7.41% |
| Metals | −10.73% |
| Medical·Precision Instruments | −11.32% |
| Transportation Equipment·Components | −11.51% |
| Only two KOSDAQ sectors rose · Communications was the only overlap with the four rising KOSPI sectors. | |
Selection criteria· Four rules for next week
Return comes last.
① Number of advancers · Do more than half the stocks inside the sector rise?
② Repeatability · Is the sector near the top on at least two of the four sessions?
③ Flows · Is either the foreign or institutional side a net buyer?
④ Return · Only after passing the first three do we look at magnitude
As of Aug. 21, sectors passing rule ① included Non-Life Insurance· Banks· Airlines· Shipping Companies· and Oil & Gas, among a few others · semiconductors failed at rule ①
- That same day, KOSPI had 683 decliners versus 193 advancers · the index was +0.88%
- What lifted it were the No. 1·and No. 2 stocks by market cap · Samsung Electronics +3.87%· SK Hynix +2.31%
- KOSDAQ at the same time −4.63% · the weekly gap between the two markets was 6.32%p
- non-arbitrage program trading −KRW 837.8bn · program trading overall was net selling even on an index-up day
- The share of KOSPI represented by the two mega caps · 12-month forward net income 70%· market capitalization 50%· Turnover 53%
- During the same week, 2026 operating-profit estimates for 200 stocks were +0.7% revised up · +2.4% excluding semiconductors revised up
Index · sector · stock gave three different answers this week.
The gap between the two markets· Four-session record
| Date | KOSPI | KOSDAQ | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue. 8/18 | −1.55% | −3.52% | 1.97%p |
| Wed. 8/19 | −5.80% | −1.17% | KOSDAQ outperformance 4.63 percentage points |
| Thu. 8/20 | +5.89% | +1.99% | 3.90%p |
| Fri. 8/21 | +0.88% | −4.63% | 5.51%p |
| Weekly | −0.93% | −7.25% | 6.32%p |
| Only on Aug. 19 did KOSDAQ fall less · on the other three sessions KOSDAQ consistently lagged · the gap is another measure of how concentrated the move was in large caps. | |||
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S6
07· LONG VIEWThe source of the shareholder returns
07
Both companies tied the promise to
half of free cash flow
Section 03 covered how much they plan to spend.Here the question is where that money comes from.
Both companies are using the same ratio.
Where free cash flow is divided
The common benchmark written into both announcements
50% of free cash flowSK Hynix turned the old ceiling into the new floor while Samsung Electronics described its plan as execution of an existing promise· the periods and exact wording are in the table below, based on the two companies' announcements.
1Cash generated from operationsAt record levels for both companies during a period of rising memory prices
2What remains after capital expenditureAt the same time, expansion spending for AI memory is also rising
3Half of that remainderTo shareholders · the other half covers expansion and debt
The promise is a ratio, not an amount.Even if the ratio is maintained, the amount falls when earnings and cash generation fall
- The return commitment is set as a ratio· so if free cash flow falls, the amount returned falls even when the commitment is met
- SK Hynix net cash at end-Q2 2026 About KRW 69tn · this is where today's financial headroom comes from
- Samsung Electronics framed the plan against aggregate 2024–2026 KRW 120–140tn of free cash flow
- AI-memory expansion is occurring over the same period · both the cash-generation side and the capex side are growing at once
| Item | SK Hynix | Samsung Electronics |
|---|---|---|
| Reference metric | Cumulative free cash flow | Free Cash Flow |
| Applicable period | 2025–2027 | 2024–2026 |
| Return ratio | At least 50%· Previously up to 50% | 50%· Execution of existing commitment |
| Size of current announcement | KRW 40tn | KRW 90–110tn |
| Aggregate over the period | Not applicable | KRW 120–140tn |
| Net cash at end-Q2 | About KRW 69tn | Not applicable |
| SK Securities' Aug. 20 estimate puts SK Hynix 2027 free cash flow at KRW 263tn · returning half would equal roughly 12% of its Aug. 21 market capitalization · no confirmed comparable estimate for Samsung Electronics was included. | ||
- Section 03 showed the visible method difference · even with the same ratio, shareholders receive something different depending on whether the mechanism is cancellation or dividends
- Cancellation reduces the share count and increases the remaining holders' ownership share · dividends distribute cash
- Preferred shares and insurers outperforming the common stock on Aug. 21 was where that difference showed up in price
The size is fixed · the method and funding source will first become visible in Q3 results.
- As long as AI-memory demand continues, there is little reason for either company's capital expenditure to fall
- With the return ratio fixed, higher capex reduces the free-cash-flow base and the return amount declines with it
- Next check · Q3 results will put free cash flow and capital expenditure on the same set of statements
- Samsung Electronics will also disclose Q3 dividend details at its late-October board meeting
Expansion is rising at the same time as shareholder returns.
An earlier case of a company using a similar ratio
Apple only began to outperform the index after raising the ratio.
Samsung Electronics' shareholder returns as a share of 2024–2026 free cash flow are 50%
Apple's 2013–2016 average was 64% · the stock was +48.5% over those four years· versus +52.5% for the S&P 500 over the same period
The 2019–2021 average was 121% · the stock was +200.7% over those three years· versus +73.5% for the index
Dividend payout ratios: Samsung Electronics 9% (2027 estimate)· Apple 12%· Microsoft 20%· TSMC 25%
At 64%, Apple roughly matched the index · at 121%, it substantially outperformed · Hana Securities, Aug. 18
This comparison does not claim the return ratio alone caused the excess return
Check dates· Where ratios turn into actual amounts
| Date | What to check |
|---|---|
| About three months from Aug. 20 | SK Hynix treasury-share execution · disclosed purchase amount |
| Late October 2026 | Samsung Electronics board · details of the roughly KRW 30tn Q3 cash dividend |
| Nov. 21, 2026 | Deadline for Samsung Electronics' roughly KRW 15tn employee-compensation treasury-share purchase |
| January 2027 | Samsung Electronics board · method and size of the remaining KRW 60–80tn |
| All four dates are specified in company announcements · the cancellation share will first become visible in late October and January 2027. | |
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S7
08· POLICYIran economic blockade
08
The war's bill
hits the price
The negotiation deadline has passed and the strait remains constrained.What arrives on Aug. 24 is not a military measure but an
economic measure.
TIMELINE· Negotiation timeline
1June 17, 2026
60-day memorandum signed
60-day memorandum signed
2Aug. 16–17 deadline expired
No extension agreement confirmed
No extension agreement confirmed
3Aug. 24
U.S. unveils economic-blockade plan
U.S. unveils economic-blockade plan
Restrictions on Hormuz traffic have continued since the strait was reclosed in April.
- The memorandum covered a halt to hostilities· reopening of the strait· nuclear constraints· and conditional sanctions relief
- After the deadline passed, Iran's foreign minister said negotiations were not under way
- The U.S. chose economic pressure rather than military escalation and is expected to ask allies to participate
HORMUZ· Weekly vessel transits
Pre-warAbout 130 per day
8/3 ~ 8/991 in the week
8/10 ~ 8/1673 in the week
Pre-war figure is per day· The two figures below are weekly totals· Lloyd's List Intelligence · Aug. 19
WTI · Aug. 21$87.06Up for a second straight week· About +6.9% on the week
U.S. 30-year · Aug. 175.31%Highest close since 2007
Korea July PPI−0.4%Month on month· First decline in 11 months
- Korea's July PPI was up year on year +7.7% · versus +8.6% in May· and +8.5% in June
- The Bank of Korea nevertheless said international oil prices rose about 11% month on month from Aug. 1–19and explicitly flagged upside pressure for August
- Because oil passes into inflation with a lag, we do not use the July figure as evidence of downside pressure
- A severe blockade creates a path in which oil and U.S. long-term yields rise together · feeding into the discount rate for the large semiconductor stocks in Section 04
- U.S. federal debt reached $40.047tn on Aug. 18, close to the statutory limit of $41.1tn · interest expense is about 14.5% of federal outlays, the highest share since 1998
- On top of the $1.45tn FY2027 defense-budget request, an Iran-response supplemental of $80bn is before Congress
Hormuz war-risk insurance premiums are omitted because reported figures differ too widely across data providers.
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S8
09· BRIEFSThree Things With Dates Attached
09
Not quarter-long themes,
but answers arrive within the next month
they can move specific sectors first · and their check dates are already on the calendar.
DATES
8.26Hyundai Motor CEO Investor Day
8.27Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board
8.28Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
23:00 Korea time
23:00 Korea time
All three get an answer next week· Once the date passes, there is nothing further to wait for.
ROBOT· Hyundai Motor
Aug. 26: the robot roadmap gets numbers
Confirmation· Are the mass-production date and cost target quantified?
- CEO Investor Day · the 2028 robot mass-production roadmap and Georgia plant ramp-up plan are scheduled
- Q4 robot-manufacturing subsidiary · a target for reducing per-humanoid hardware cost is also expected
- The remaining Boston Dynamics stake 9.65%to be acquired for about $325m · the group will own 100% upon completion
- The same company faced its first full strike in ten years on Aug. 21 · two catalysts only four days apart · linked to Section 05
Hyundai Motor8/26 Investor DayHyundai AutoEver
RATE· Korea
Aug. 27: first meeting after the hike
Confirmation· Whether the BOK hikes again and where the won moves
- The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate in July from 2.50% to 2.75% · this is the first meeting since that hike
- KRW·USD/KRW's Aug. 21 daytime-session close at 15:30 was KRW 1,386.5 · Below KRW 1,400 for a third straight session
- July PPI fell month on month −0.4%for the first time in 11 months · but August oil points upward
- Further won strength hurts translated earnings for exporters · the direction is not one-sided
KRW·USD/KRW8/21 KRW 1,386.5
MACRO· United States
Aug. 28: Warsh's first Jackson Hole
Confirmation· Does the speech leave the door open to a hike?
- Jackson Hole Symposium Aug. 27–29 · theme: how financial innovation affects payments and policy
- Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair · 10 a.m. local time Aug. 28· The same day in Korea, 23:00
- At the same time, the U.S. BLS releases the Q1 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and the preliminary March employment benchmark revision · two catalysts land at the same hour
- The July meeting minutes released Aug. 19 showed that many members judged further tightening would be necessary if inflation did not slow sufficiently
- The implied probability of a September hold fell over the week from about 69% to about 60% · see the path in Section 02
Jackson Hole8/27~29September FOMC9/15~16
SnowShagal WEEKLY· S9
SCORECARDVerification Area Separated From the Main Text
Scoring Last Weekly ·
Answers from the five axes
We test only the five axes designated in advance last week. The check dates are also unchanged · no criteria are rewritten after the fact and no new axes are added · the next evaluation axes are precommitted in the table below.
The five axes precommitted last week
| Axis | Pre-Set Criterion | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Early Shareholder Return | Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix Filing· Whether announced within August· Check date 8/31 | SK Hynix 8/19 KRW 40tn· Samsung Electronics 8/21 KRW 90–110tn Both announced within August· Confirmed ten days before the check date Met |
| 02 Foreign-Only Buying | Cumulative KOSPI foreign flow·Institutions· Are both foreign investors and institutions net buyers, or foreigners only?· Check date: 8/21 close | Foreign Investors −KRW 1.87tn· Institutions −KRW 2.36tn Both were net sellers · neither of the two cases posed last week occurred Foreign-only buying ended |
| 03 Breadth | Share of advancing KOSPI stocks· Trading-day average above / below 50%· Check date: 8/21 close | 22.0· 19.1· 57.8· 21.3% · four-session average 30.1% Below · unmet |
| 04 September FOMC | CME FedWatch hold probability· Above / below 65%· Check date: 8/21 close | 8/17 69.4% → 8/21 About 60% Moved toward a hike after the July minutes were released on 8/19 Below · unmet |
| 05 Oil | WTI Close· Above / below $85· Check date: 8/21 close | 8/21 $87.06 · up for a second straight week Above · met |
| Axis 03 uses, because Aug. 17 was a holiday, a four-session average · exactly as specified last week under the precommitted condition that a five-day metric would require redefining the observation window. The Aug. 31 MSCI rebalance, identified as a confounder for Axis 02, falls after the check date and is excluded from this scorecard. | ||
Scorecard· What the five axes said together
| Category | This Week's Result |
|---|---|
| Axis answered by the companies · 01 Met | Last week asked whether the announcements would arrive within August · both companies answered three days apart. But price diverged on method, not size · last week's focus on size alone was the limitation of this axis · to be corrected in the next benchmark. |
| Axes answered by flows· 02· 03 | Both unmet Foreign-only buying ended and breadth averaged 30.1% across four sessions It did not cross the line designated last week as the only evidence that a rebound had turned into broadening |
| Externally driven axes· 04· 05 | Mixed The hold probability fell while oil rose · both point in the same direction for Korea's discount rate The U.S. 30-year closed Aug. 17 at 5.31%, the highest since 2007· and formed the backdrop to Korea's Aug. 19 selloff |
| Axes 01 and 05 were the only two met · 01 alone held up the index this week, while the other four all pushed against it. | |
Next Evaluation Axes· Pre-Designated
| Axis | Precommitted value and decision rule | Confirmation Date |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Treasury-share execution | SK Hynix treasury-share purchase result disclosure· Is the executed purchase amount confirmed in a filing? | 8/28 close |
| 02 Breadth inside the sector | On Aug. 21, Semiconductors·Number of advancers inside Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment on Aug. 21: 14· Above / below 30 | 8/28 close |
| 03 KOSDAQ | KOSDAQ weekly close· Above / below 800 | 8/28 close |
| 04 NVIDIA | Next-quarter revenue guidance· Above / below the top end of consensus | 8/27 06:00 |
| 05 U.S. 30-year | U.S. Treasury par-yield close · above / below 5.27% | 8/28 close |
| Conditions That Break the Thesis· If the Aug. 24 Iran economic-blockade plan is strong enough to push oil sharply higher, Axis 05 turns into an event-reaction test and the meaning of the axis changes· Axis 02 uses Naver Finance sector classifications, whose constituents differ from KRX sectors· Axis 03 is measured just before the Aug. 31 MSCI rebalance, so related flows may already be embedded in the Aug. 28 close. | ||
This Week's Confirmed Data· In One Place
| Category | 08.14 | 08.21 | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,977.94 | 6,912.95 | −0.93% |
| KOSDAQ | 864.65 | 801.94 | −7.25% |
| Samsung Electronics | 274,500 | 281,500 | +2.55% |
| SK Hynix | 1,645,000 | 1,730,000 | +5.17% |
| Category | 08.14 | 08.21 | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 53,732.41 | 53,277.01 | −0.85% |
| S&P500 | 7,785.76 | 7,674.37 | −1.43% |
| Nasdaq | 26,729.16 | 26,180.46 | −2.05% |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index | 12,417.05 | 11,740.37 | −5.45% |
| U.S. Treasury par yields on Aug. 21 closed at 4.74% for the 10-year and 5.27% for the 30-year · the week's highest 30-year close was 5.31% on Aug. 17, the highest since 2007 · intraday on Aug. 18 it reached 5.33%. | |||
| Investor | Four-session cumulative | Last week |
|---|---|---|
| Foreign Investors | −KRW 1.87tn | +KRW 6.54tn |
| Institutions | −KRW 2.36tn | +KRW 0.78tn |
| Retail Investors | +KRW 1.94tn | −KRW 7.08tn |
| This week had four sessions because Aug. 17 was a holiday· Last week had five · the windows differ, so the two columns are not subtracted from one another. | ||
What we excluded this week· and Why
| Item | Reason |
|---|---|
| KRW·Weekly USD/KRW return | Aug. 18 and Aug. 20 use the reference exchange rate· while Aug. 19 and Aug. 21 use the 15:30 daytime-session close · the bases are mixed, so no weekly return is calculated |
| Hormuz war-risk insurance premium | Reported values differ too widely across providers to narrow to one figure |
| KOSDAQ daily investor-flow amounts | We could not obtain all four sessions on the same basis as KOSPI, so KOSDAQ includes only the index and stock counts |
| Brent close | Sources ranged from the low-$92s to the mid-$94s, so only WTI is shown |
Calculation basis· Do not mix unlike bases
Weekly index returns compare like-for-like index closes · Aug. 14 close to Aug. 21 close.
For flows, totals and cumulative figures use Naver Finance investor data, while stock-level figures use the KRX regular market · they are not combined or turned into ratios within the same card.
Sector returns and counts of advancing stocks use Naver Finance's 79-sector classification · its constituents differ from KRX's 23-sector classification.
September meeting probabilities are from CME FedWatch · collection times differ by source, so readings from Aug. 18 onward are rounded.
Stocks named in the body are those appearing in disclosures and confirmed market prices · not recommendations to buy specific stocks.
SOURCES· Data and Sources
Filings · releases
SK Hynix, “Decision on Treasury-Share Purchase and Cancellation,” 8/19 · Samsung Electronics, “2026 Shareholder Return Plan,” 8/21 · U.S. Army, “Next-Generation Self-Propelled Howitzer Prototype Selection,” press release, 8/18
Shareholder returns Kyobo Securities, “SK Hynix KRW 40tn Treasury Shares,” 8/20· SK Securities, “SK Hynix Shareholder Return Policy Change,” 8/20· Hana Securities, “Foreign Flows and Samsung Electronics Returns,” 8/18· Hanwha Investment & Securities, “Model Portfolio,” 8/18· Hana Securities, “Tech & Stock Weekly,” 8/14
Rates · macro
Hana Securities, “Expanded U.S. Treasury Buybacks and Long-Term Yields,” 8/20 · SK Securities, “Expansion of U.S. Treasury Long-Bond Buybacks,” 8/20 · iM Securities, “U.S. Debt at $40tn and Buybacks,” 8/21 · IBK Securities, “U.S. National Debt at $40tn and Interest Costs,” 8/21 · Eugene Investment & Securities, “July FOMC Minutes,” 8/21 · Kiwoom Securities, “BOK Preview and Weekly Macro,” 8/21 · Hana Securities, “August BOK Preview,” 8/20 · iM Securities, “Why August, Not October,” 8/19 · Daishin Securities, “August BOK Meeting,” 8/20 · Hanwha Investment & Securities, “Competing Government- and Corporate-Bond Issuance and the Rate Floor,” 8/18
Semiconductors·Market Logic Daishin Securities, “Weekly Outlook,” 8/21· Daishin Securities, “Weekly Strategy,” 8/17· Daishin Securities, “Quant Strategy Plan,” 8/19· 8/20· Meritz Securities, “Back to Basics,” 8/20· Kiwoom Securities, “Q2 Earnings-Season Quant,” 8/21· Yuanta Securities, “Weekly Quant Screening,” 8/21· Daishin Securities, “Global Weekly Strategy,” 8/21
Sectors
Daishin Securities, “Defense · U.S. Self-Propelled Howitzer Prototype Selection,” 8/20 · Yuanta Securities, “Hanwha Aerospace Solely Selected for U.S. Self-Propelled Howitzer,” 8/20 · Hana Securities, “June Energy Storage Systems,” 8/21 · iM Securities, “Robotics Q2 Review,” 8/19 · Eugene Investment & Securities, “Energy Weekly,” 8/19 · Daishin Securities, “Commodities,” 8/12 · Hana Securities, “Utilities Weekly,” 8/21 · Hanwha Investment & Securities, “Ten Years of KOSDAQ-to-KOSPI Transfers,” 8/20
Prices·Flows Naver Finance investor-flow data· Naver Finance sector·and theme indexes· KRX Information Data System · weekly index returns (Aug. 14 close → Aug. 21 close)· KRX trading by investor type· Nasdaq OMX PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index· U.S. Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates· Our Daily reports, Aug. 18–21 aggregation (share of advancing stocks· and number of advancers inside sectors)
Primary schedule sources U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule· U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Aug. 28 release schedule· Q1 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and preliminary March employment benchmark revision· NVIDIA earnings announcement· Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium· Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board schedule· U.S. Treasury expanded buyback announcement, 8/19· Bank of Korea July PPI· Korea Customs Service preliminary exports, Aug. 1–20
Research read this week 63 reports· 21 used in the body· Only one Meritz Securities report directly built a downside case · we also record that the material reviewed was heavily skewed to one side.