Snowshagal Weekly cover, October 17 2026: Down 14% in Five Sessions. Have We Seen the Bottom?
2026.10.17Korea Stock Market Weekly
Snowshagal Weekly

Five Sessions, -14%
Is the Bottom In?

THE WEEK IN ONE LINE

Chip Top 15 -21.06% · Pharma +4.75%U.S. chips -3.83% Friday · Eighth straight loss

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KOREAN AND U.S. MARKETS: FINAL CLOSESKorean market data through October 16 close · U.S. regular-session data through October 16 local close · Weekend developments through October 17 · Next Korean session: October 19 · Five trading days next week
00WHAT MATTERS NEXT WEEK

Five days, semiconductors down 21%.
Another 3.8% lost Friday night.

Review period: October 12-16, five sessions · Next Korean trading week: October 19-23, five sessions We will score the three questions below in next week's Weekly

OUR ASSESSMENT
Rates were not the main story.
AI funding and memory-chip competition
reset semiconductor valuations.
  • The KOSPI fell from 6,625.93 to 5,668.05 -14.46% · Semiconductor Top 15 -21.06% · The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.24% to 5.09% over the same week
  • Concerns about AI investment funding spread as CoreWeave bonds plunged · CXMT announced server DRAM plans on the 13th · Foreign selling concentrated in semiconductor heavyweights · Evidence: 01 Anatomy of the Selloff
  • Friday's rebound (+2.05%) was broad, but U.S. chip stocks fell 3.83% after Korea closed · The test next week: does the bounce reach semiconductors, or stop at one Friday?
  1. SEMICONDUCTORS · AI FINANCING

    The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for eight straight sessions · Lam Research and Texas Instruments report on October 21 U.S. time · SK hynix reports Q3 earnings on October 28

  2. OIL · MIDDLE EAST

    Brent at $109.86 · Missile intercepted near Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export terminal · Oil flows through Hormuz at roughly 70% of prewar levels

  3. RATES · BANK OF KOREA

    BOK rate decision October 22 (policy rate: 3.00%) · U.S. 10-year yield: 5.09% · Reported probability of an October Fed hold: 85%

THE WEEK IN MARKETS
KOSPI -14.46% · KOSDAQ -10.93%

A rebound on the 16th after seven consecutive declines · Circuit breakers hit both exchanges on the 15th · Net foreign selling over five sessions: ₩10.995tn

NEXT WEEK'S TURNING POINT
U.S. chip-equipment earnings early October 22 · BOK decision October 22

Monday's opening prices will first reflect Friday night's U.S. chip selloff · Korea's preliminary October 1-20 exports arrive on the 21st · Lam Research and Texas Instruments earnings first feed into Korean prices on the morning of the 22nd

WEEKEND WILDCARD
Brent near $110 a barrel

Missile intercepted near Yanbu · Nine vessels attacked around Hormuz since the 11th (reports) · IEA accelerates strategic stock releases

01WHAT THE WEEK LEFT BEHIND

Four days of panic selling.
One Friday of relief.

Weekly intraday high: 6,589.69 on October 12 · Weekly intraday low: 5,450.81 on October 15 For the day-by-day account, see each Daily report

WEEKLY PERFORMANCE 2026.10.12~10.16Top 10 by market cap, plus benchmark indices · Versus October 8 close

Stocks are measured from the October 8 to October 16 regular-session closes · Of the 10 largest companies, only Samsung Biologics and LG Energy Solution gained · The two index rows are benchmarks · Any stock below the KOSPI row fell further than the index · Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SK Square all underperformed · Samsung Electronics preferred fell slightly less than the KOSPI

01

Foreign investors sold for four days.
Three groups absorbed the supply.

  • Foreign investors' KOSPI cash-equity flows: October 12 -₩2.019tn · October 13 -₩4.513tn · October 14 -₩1.180tn · October 15 -₩3.624tn · October 16 +₩341bn · Five-session total: -₩10.995tn
  • On the buying side: retail investors +₩4.184tn · institutions +₩3.397tn · and other corporations and residual investor categories, implied by the balance across groups, +₩3.414tn · This was not another week of retail investors buying alone
  • Foreign investors bought KOSPI 200 futures net for four sessions, then sold on the 16th · Five-session net buying: ₩2.243tn · Five-session net selling: ₩2.783tn
  • Forced liquidation of leveraged stock positions totaled ₩298.1bn over October 6-15, including the previous week (reported KOFIA compilation) · October 14: ₩89.3bn; October 15: ₩80.5bn · Investor cash deposits stood at ₩96.9121tn on the 15th, down 4.1% from the 6th
02

The selloff reached almost everything.
So did Friday's rebound.

  • Share of stocks advancingmeans the number of KOSPI stocks that rose divided by all KOSPI stocks that day · The dotted line marks 50%
  • Only two of the five sessions, the 14th and 16th, cleared 50% · On the 15th, just 12.5% advanced: nearly nine in ten stocks declined · On the 16th, 82.9% advanced: more than four in five rose · KOSDAQ: 13.1% → 24.7% → 45.6% → 6.6% → 84.9%
03

Semiconductors fell furthest.
Only four of 24 sectors rose.

  • KRX Semiconductor Top 15 -21.06% · KOSPI Electrical & Electronic Equipment -19.66% · SK hynix -24.33% · Samsung Electronics -17.75%: all much worse than the KOSPI
  • The other side: KOSPI Pharmaceuticals +4.75% · Food, Beverages & Tobacco +4.61% · Entertainment & Culture +4.12% · Transportation & Warehousing +2.63% · KRX Bio Top 10 +1.26% · Samsung Biologics +6.48%
  • Only four of the KOSPI's 24 sectors posted weekly gains · KOSPI High Dividend 50 lost 1.43%, outperforming the KOSPI by about 13 percentage points
04

Last week's sector calls.
How they fared one week later.

  • Semiconductors · Semiconductor Top 15 -21.06%underperformed the KOSPI (-14.46%) by 6.6 percentage points · The daily catalysts are in the table below
  • Secondary batteries · Secondary Battery Top 10 -5.25%, outperforming the KOSPI by more than 9 percentage points · LG Energy Solution +0.50% · K-AI Secondary Batteries fell 8.81% · Performance varies considerably with index composition
  • Defense and shipbuilding · K-AI Defense Top 5+ -6.13% · Shipbuilding Top 10 -7.52% · Both moved from the weaker thematic groups last week to relative outperformers this week
  • Financials · KOSPI Financials -9.92% · Securities -8.43% · Insurance -7.87% · KB Financial's -1.72% was the smallest loss among declining stocks in the top 10 by market cap
  • Refining · Brent rose from $104.72 on October 9 to $109.86 on October 16, local time · For the refining-sector outlook, see 03 Sectors
DATE
KOSPI
WHAT MOVED PRICES EACH DAY
10.12
-3.65%
Korea absorbed two U.S. trading days of semiconductor weakness (October 8-9) in a single session after its holiday · Reports that OpenAI revenue was below earlier projections helped trigger selling · Foreign investors sold more than ₩2tn · Brent above $100 amid weekend Middle East tensions
10.13
-5.46%
CXMT's plan to introduce server DRAM by year-end raised fears of greater Chinese competition in memory · SK hynix -10.09% · Foreign selling exceeded ₩4.5tn · Sell-side program-trading curb at 9:47 a.m.
10.14
-0.44%
Market rebounded as much as 2.57% in the morning · Profit-taking hit chip stocks after ASML reported record results around 2 p.m. · Advancers accounted for 55.0%, above half for the first time since October 2
10.15
-7.57%
September U.S. CPI of 3.7% and plunging CoreWeave bonds coincided with a 4.30% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index · KOSPI circuit breaker at 12:38 p.m. · Lowest closing level since April 7
10.16
+2.05%
First gain in eight sessions · Lower U.S. Treasury yields and Jensen Huang's comments on CoreWeave were cited as rebound catalysts (reports) · The index was up as much as 4.60% intraday before giving back over half the gain · Foreign flows turned positive (preliminary)
LAST WEEK'S QUESTION: Did foreign buying resume after nine sessions of selling?
Partly met.
  • One net-buying session (October 16, +₩341bn) · Each of the other four days saw selling above ₩1tn · Five-session total: -₩10.995tn
  • On the same 3:38 p.m. snapshot basis used last week, foreign investors sold for 13 consecutive sessions from September 23 through October 15, then bought on October 16 · The final tally, which adds after-hours trades, instead records buying on October 1, shortening the uninterrupted selling run to October 2 onward
LAST WEEK'S QUESTION: Would the 10-year yield fall below 5.2% after September U.S. inflation data?
Met.
  • The U.S. Treasury's 10-year par yield was 5.09% on October 16, down 0.15 percentage points from 5.24% on the 9th · CPI beat forecasts, but yields still dropped 0.09 percentage points on October 15, the day after the release in U.S. time
  • The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week when Treasury yields declined · For why, see Anatomy of the Selloff below
LAST WEEK'S QUESTION: Would Samsung Electronics and SK hynix both rebound, with at least one outperforming the KOSPI?
Not met.
  • Samsung Electronics: ₩262,000 → 215,500 (-17.75%) · SK hynix: ₩1,681,000 → 1,272,000 (-24.33%) · Both underperformed the KOSPI
  • On October 16 alone, Samsung Electronics gained 2.62% and beat the KOSPI; SK hynix rose only 0.79%
ANATOMY OF THIS SELLOFF

Treasury yields fell.
Semiconductors were repriced anyway.

The U.S. 10-year yield declined from 5.24% to 5.09%, yet the KOSPI dropped 14.46% · The market appeared to price AI funding needs and memory competition ahead of lower discount rates (interpretation)
  • AI funding · CoreWeave had roughly $35bn in borrowings and $16bn in lease liabilities at end-June as it expanded its data centers · Its bonds plunged this week, with the 2032 issue reportedly yielding close to 15% · The concern centered less on imminent default than on the cost of raising future capital · Its stock lost 25.21% for the week
  • Rates and credit risk  · U.S. Treasury yields fell, but CoreWeave bonds' rose · Investors demanded a larger credit spread over Treasuries, potentially making future borrowing more expensive (interpretation) · How much this contributed to the KOSPI decline cannot be isolated
  • Memory competition · CXMT announced server-DRAM plans on October 13 · Markets reacted before production scale and specifications were disclosed · Earnings estimates remained high even as share prices fell · On Friday evening, CXMT also released preliminary projections of sharply higher sales from its existing products (details in 04 Friday Night)
  • Positioning · Foreign selling was concentrated in chip stocks · Daishin Securities estimates that ₩176tn of the ₩196tn in year-to-date foreign net selling of KOSPI equities was in semiconductors (October 12 research) · SK hynix remained the second-largest net foreign sell on the 16th (reports citing KRX) · For the gap left by share buybacks, see 02 Q2 · Forced liquidation of margin-financed stock purchases added to the pressure
  • THE COUNTERCASE · TSMC forecast further revenue growth in the fourth quarter · BofA's Vivek Arya compared the roughly 13x average of Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron with Cisco's 10-20x valuation after the dot-com crash, arguing that chip stocks were being priced at post-bust multiples even though the cycle had not collapsed (October 16 report) · But falling earnings forecasts would make even today's low P/E ratios rise again · With 82.9% of KOSPI stocks advancing on the 16th, this was not a market in which every stock remained under pressure
WHAT HAS PASSEDSeptember U.S. CPI and PPI releases · ASML and TSMC Q3 results · Seven consecutive KOSPI declines, broken by the October 16 gain · The run of foreign net selling, interrupted by preliminary buying on the 16th
WHAT REMAINSEight consecutive declines in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index through October 16 U.S. time · CoreWeave credit concerns · Brent near $110 · Two weeks until SK hynix Q3 results on October 28 · The October 27-28 Fed meeting
WHAT EASED THE PRESSURE

The U.S. 10-year yield fell to 5.09% · Reported odds of an October Fed hold reached 85% (CME FedWatch) · KRW strengthened to 1,331.4 per dollar despite substantial foreign equity selling

02THREE QUESTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK

Monday's setup is already known.
The next four days must supply the answers.

Korea has five trading days, October 19-23 · The October 19 open will be the first Korean response to Friday night's U.S. chip selloff · U.S. equipment-sector earnings come early on October 22 Korean time (after the U.S. close on the 21st) · BOK meets on the 22nd · Q1 is scored at the October 23 U.S. close; Q3 at the Brent settlement that day; Q2 over all five Korean sessions

Q.01

After eight down sessions, will U.S. chips
finish next week higher?

  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell from 12,572.42 on October 9 U.S. time to 11,137.29 · a weekly loss of 11.4% · It declined for eight straight sessions from October 7 to 16 · All 30 constituents fell on the 16th
  • The week's slide began with funding concerns at AI companies rather than weak earnings (01 Anatomy of the Selloff) · Next week will test whether those concerns begin to appear in equipment suppliers' orders and guidance
  • The immediate reports come from equipment and analog chips: Lam Research (semiconductor manufacturing equipment) and Texas Instruments (industrial and automotive semiconductors) on October 21 U.S. time · The memory-sector answer comes later, with SK hynix Q3 results on October 28
  • Kiwoom Securities argues it is premature to fully price in CXMT's next-generation server-DRAM plan before production, yield and customer qualification are established (October 13 research) · For CXMT's Friday-evening preliminary results, see 04 Friday Night

SCORING · Met if the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closes above its October 16 level of 11,137.29 on October 23 U.S. time ·
Partly met if it closes between 10,803.2 and 11,137.29 inclusive (within 3% below) · Not met if below 10,803.2

SIGNS OF STABILIZATIONLam Research holds or lifts next-quarter guidance · CoreWeave shares and bond prices stabilize · Korean chip stocks leave the top ranks of foreign net selling
WHAT WOULD EXTEND THE DECLINEFurther financing stress among AI data-center operators · Equipment suppliers flag slowing orders · Rising oil sends Treasury yields back up
HOW TO READ THE SIGNALKorean chips absorb the preceding U.S. close in their next opening price · Results released after the October 21 U.S. close first feed into Korean trading on October 22
Q.02

Will Friday's return of foreign buyers
last for at least two sessions next week?

  • Five-day foreign net flows into KOSPI cash equities: -₩10.995tn · Only October 16 was positive (+₩341bn, preliminary) · That same day foreigners sold ₩954bn of KOSPI 200 futures, the opposite of their cash-equity trade
  • On October 16, Samsung Electronics ranked first for foreign net buying, while SK hynix ranked second for foreign net selling (reports citing KRX) · Flows diverged even within semiconductors
  • USD/KRW at the 3:30 p.m. close moved from 1,338.5 on the 8th to 1,331.4 on the 16th · The won strengthened despite the heavy selling · iM Securities noted that the exchange rate near ₩840 per JPY 100 was its lowest since January 2008 and considered the won's strength versus the yen close to excessive (October 13 research)
  • The share-buyback bid has also faded · Daishin Securities estimates Samsung Electronics completed ₩15tn in buybacks on October 6 · The combined daily support from two companies' buybacks declined from ₩1.610tn in September to ₩790bn on October 6-8 (October 14 research) · SK hynix's disclosed buyback program runs until November 19

SCORING · Met if foreign investors, including other foreign investor accounts, are net buyers of KOSPI cash equities on
at least two days from October 19-23 · Partly met if one day · Not met if none · Based on the KRX 3:38 p.m. snapshot

SIGNS THE BUYING PERSISTSForeign flows in futures turn positive again · SK hynix leaves the top sellers list · USD/KRW stays near 1,330
WHAT WOULD BRING SELLERS BACKFurther losses after Monday's open absorbs the U.S. chip decline · USD/KRW climbs above 1,350 · BOK sends a strong signal of another hike on the 22nd
HOW TO READ THE SIGNALTrack cash equities and futures separately · Use only the 3:38 p.m. snapshot to score the question · Final, after-hours-inclusive totals are supplementary
Q.03

Will oil, after touching $110,
retreat below $105?

  • Brent moved from $104.72 on October 9 U.S. time to $109.86 on October 16 · touching $110 intraday · Even Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export port, a route around Hormuz, came under threat · Details in 04 Friday Night
  • Oil feeds through to U.S. inflation and Treasury yields (September PPI was 04) · Hana Securities sees a U.S. 10-year yield above 5.7% as a point at which stocks and bonds could fall together (October 13 research)
  • There are potential offsets: the IEA is accelerating stock releases and the U.S. has opened a Strategic Petroleum Reserve loan tender · Daishin Securities considers a "managed stalemate" the most likely outcome before the November 3 U.S. midterms and sees WTI potentially below $80 if tensions ease (October 12 research)
  • Eurasia Group reportedly lifted its estimated likelihood of a wider Middle East conflict from 35% to 65%

SCORING · Met if Brent settles below $105 on October 23 U.S. time ·
Partly met if it settles at or above $105 but below $109.86 · Not met if at or above the October 16 level of $109.86 · The $105 threshold is close to this week's starting point ($104.72 on the 9th)

SIGNS OIL COULD EASEShipping through Hormuz recovers · No further Yanbu attacks · Strategic barrels actually reach the market
WHAT WOULD PUSH OIL HIGHERPhysical damage to Saudi export facilities · Continued attacks on ships near Hormuz · More strikes on Russian refining infrastructure
HOW TO READ THE SIGNALHigher crude prices can give refiners inventory valuation gains, but actual profitability depends on refining margins, the spread between product and crude prices · Airlines and chemicals producers face higher fuel and feedstock costs · See 03 Sectors for refining
03SECTOR PRIORITIES

Start with semiconductors.
For the survivors, ask why they held up.

The next inflection points for chips are U.S. equipment earnings on the morning of October 22 and SK hynix results on the 28th · Within healthcare, only large-cap pharmaceuticals held up Financials face the October 22 BOK decision · Batteries face Samsung SDI results on the 29th · Refiners still await official earnings dates

Semiconductors · Memory · October 22 and 28 earnings
PRIORITY 1
Biotech · Pharmaceuticals · Large-cap pharma rose during the selloff
PRIORITY 2
Oil refiners · Crude near $110
PRIORITY 3
Financials · BOK decision October 22
PRIORITY 4
Batteries · Energy Storage · Samsung SDI earnings October 29
PRIORITY 5
Defense · Shipbuilding · Fell less than the KOSPI
PRIORITY 6
-- FIRST PRIORITY --
WHAT TO WATCH FIRST

Semiconductors · Memory

THE ORDER OF NEXT WEEK'S TESTS

Monday must first absorb Friday's U.S. selloff.
The first substantive answer arrives with Lam Research earnings on October 22, Korea time.

For the damage this week, see 01 · Lam Research makes chipmaking equipment, so changes in memory producers' investment plans may appear in its outlook first (interpretation) · SK hynix Q3 results on October 28 will provide the next test
WHY NOW WHY NOW
  • Eugene Investment & Securities links a KOSPI range of 5,500-6,200 with a scenario in which the coming year's projected operating profits at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are cut by 60-70% (October 13 research) · The October 16 close of 5,668.05 sits inside that range · This does not mean earnings have actually been cut by that amount · Lower earnings expectations, a higher risk premium and foreign selling could each account for different shares of the decline (interpretation)
  • Daishin Securities puts the semiconductor sector's forward P/E at 4.0x, in roughly the bottom 1% of its historical range · Daishin's interpretation: for a cyclical sector, a low P/E can reflect doubts that today's profits will last (October 13 research)
  • Next week's answer lies less in reported quarterly numbers than in guidance for the next quarter · For the nature of the decline, see 01
5,450.81October 15 intraday low · The lowest KOSPI print of the week

Before declaring a floor,
this is the level that must hold.

WHAT BROKERS ARE SAYING WHAT THE STREET SAYS
  • Bullish view · Hanwha Investment & Securities sees CXMT's plan as another recurring scare, comparable to the 2024 memory downturn and the 2025 DeepSeek episode, and considers even KOSPI 6,000 a deeply undervalued level (October 14 research) · Hana Securities points to the acute shortage of low-power DRAM (LPDDR) and sees the first rebound signal when earnings estimates begin rising again (October 12 research) · The issue: will the earnings decline implied by prices actually materialize?
  • Cautious view · Kiwoom Securities notes that daily market turnover has fallen from ₩40-50tn in June-July to the ₩20tn range, making a turnaround in one or two sessions unlikely · After a slide exceeding 10% over five or more days, it favors a bottoming process over a V-shaped rebound (October 14-15 research) · Eugene Investment & Securities cautions that most cases in its post-selloff rebound statistics come from this year, limiting how widely the pattern can be generalized
Bottoming checklist and P/E-based index scenarios · Daishin and Hanwha
  • Daishin Securities would look for three conditions together: daily foreign net selling below ₩1tn; non-arbitrage program flows turning positive; and rebounds in Micron and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (October 14 research)
  • Against Friday's data, the first two conditions were met (foreign buying of ₩341bn, preliminary; non-arbitrage buying of ₩573.1bn) · The third was not (Micron -5.63%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -3.83% on October 16 U.S. time) (interpretation)
  • Daishin's expected recovery order: large-cap semiconductors → equipment, components, batteries and power equipment → dividend-attractive banks and insurers
  • At unchanged earnings, Hanwha Investment & Securities calculates KOSPI levels of 4,603 at 3.5x forward P/E, 5,260 at 4.0x and 6,575 at 5.0x (October 15 research) · If earnings estimates fall, the index level associated with each multiple falls too
NEXT CATALYSTS AND FAILURE CONDITIONS NEXT CATALYST
  • October 19 The Korean open first reflects Friday's declines in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Micron · Details in 04 Friday Night
  • Morning of October 22 Lam Research and Texas Instruments Q3 results (released after the October 21 U.S. close) · For our scoring criteria, see 02 Q1
  • October 28, 9:00 a.m. SK hynix Q3 earnings · iM Securities sees additional shareholder returns announced alongside the results as a potential catalyst for narrowing the discount in SK hynix shares (October 12 research)
  • FAILURE CONDITIONS · Lam Research lowers next-quarter guidance · Samsung Electronics and SK hynix both reappear among the biggest foreign net sells · The KOSPI falls below the October 15 intraday low of 5,450.81

Outside semiconductors,
resilience and scheduled catalysts tell different stories.

GAINED DURING THE SELLOFF

Biotech · Pharmaceuticals

WHY NOW

KOSPI Pharmaceuticals +4.75%ranked first in weekly performance among 24 sectors · Samsung Biologics +6.48%ranked first among the 10 largest KOSPI-listed companies by market cap · Yet KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals -5.20% and KRX Bio Licensing -6.56% also weakened · The strength was concentrated in large KOSPI-listed pharma names

WHAT TO WATCH

Hanwha Investment & Securities calls biotech a genuine AI beneficiary and raised Samsung Biologics' weight in its October model portfolio by 1.0 percentage point · In pharmaceuticals and biotech, stood a little above ₩2tn, the lowest since 2020 (October 15 research) · Kiwoom Securities views biotech as oversold and highlights October clinical presentations at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting and potential licensing demand in global pharma Q3 results · Technology-licensing deals so far this year total $13.97bn, already above last year's $13.65bn (October 13 research)

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

Relative strength during a week when the index fell 14% could fade if chip stocks rebound (interpretation) · Samsung Biologics was third among foreign net sells on the 16th (reports citing KRX) · Hanwha estimates Samsung Biologics uses a budget exchange rate of ₩1,400 per dollar this year · At ₩1,331.4, each dollar of revenue translates into fewer won; the actual effect depends on contract rates and currency hedging

WHERE THE RISKS HAVE GROWN

Oil Refining

WHY NOW

Brent approached $110 this week · For the weekend developments, see 04 Friday Night · Hana Securities estimates that Saudi Arabia's $5-a-barrel reduction in November crude selling prices will lower Q4 crude input costs by $11 a barrel quarter over quarter, supporting another strong quarter for refiners (October 12 research) · Eugene Investment & Securities expects elevated diesel-led margins to persist until damaged refining capacity returns (October 13 research)

WHAT TO WATCH

S-Oil has not yet officially announced its Q3 earnings date · IBK Investment & Securities estimates Q3 operating profit at ₩1.297tn, about 23% above the FnGuide of ₩1.0574tn · Both IBK and Hana name SK Innovation and S-Oil as their top sector picks (October 12-14 research)

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

IBK identifies an early normalization of Hormuz traffic as a downside risk · SK Innovation's reported Q3 earnings consensus varies widely, from ₩1.3732tn to ₩3.0675tn depending on the data compilation · The first question is which benchmark to use when judging a result

A DATE IS SET

Financials

WHY NOW

This week's KOSPI Financials -9.92% · Securities -8.43% · Insurance -7.87% · KB Financial Group -1.72% · Samsung Life Insurance -11.34% · KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend Top 10 -2.76% · The high-dividend financial index held up relatively well

WHAT TO WATCH

BOK monetary-policy meeting October 22 (policy rate: 3.00%) · Calendar in 05 Calendar · Hana Securities expects banks' Q3 to decline an average of 0.04 percentage points quarter on quarter, but sees limited further downside to valuations below 0.7x price-to-book and prefers KB Financial (October 12 research) · Hana projects combined Q3 net profit at five securities firms of ₩1.063tn, roughly 30% below the ₩1.5221tn consensus · It expects Mirae Asset Securities to post a quarterly loss partly from SpaceX mark-to-market losses (October 14 research)

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

Kiwoom Securities rates insurers Neutral, pointing to Samsung Life's dividend yield being around 1.1 percentage points below the three-year Korean government bond yield (October 15 research) · Daishin, by contrast, includes dividend-attractive banks and insurers in its expected recovery sequence

EARNINGS STILL TO COME

Batteries · Energy Storage Systems

WHY NOW

KRX Secondary Battery Top 10 -5.25%outperformed the KOSPI by more than 9 percentage points · LG Energy Solution +0.50% · K-AI Secondary Batteries -8.81% · Foreign investors ranked Samsung SDI and L&F among their biggest net sells on the 16th (reports citing KRX)

WHAT TO WATCH

Samsung SDI reports Q3 earnings on October 29 · Its operating-profit consensus has risen 54.7% in a month to ₩165.4bn, per Hana Securities · Hana favors growing exposure to energy storage systems (ESS), citing global installations of 246.5 GWh in January-August (+43.6%) and a possible opportunity for Korean cell makers in India's 50 GWh ESS tender (October 15 research) · Installation growth and confirmed orders for Korean producers are separate questions · Bids for Korea's third central ESS capacity tender, 1,180 MW, close November 11 (Hanwha research)

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

Hana says the estimated upside in large battery shares has narrowed from 50-100% in July to 30-40%, warranting profit-taking discipline · It cautions against counting on the return of EV subsidies in 2027 (October 12 research)

RELATIVE OUTPERFORMERS

Defense · Shipbuilding

WHY NOW

K-AI Defense Top 5+ -6.13% · Shipbuilding Top 10 -7.52% · Both outperformed the KOSPI (-14.46%) by 8.3 and 6.9 percentage points respectively · Hanwha Ocean entered the 10 most-bought stocks by foreign investors on the 16th (reports citing KRX) · Rising Middle East risks could translate into prospective defense orders (interpretation)

WHAT TO WATCH

DS Investment & Securities sees potential Q4 Middle East defense orders including around ₩15tn for Hanwha Aerospace from Saudi Arabia (conditional on the war ending), and roughly ₩1.5tn each for LIG D&A's Cheongung-II air-defense systems in Qatar and Kuwait · It will watch whether air-defense cooperation advances during the UAE president's planned late-October visit to Korea (October 12 research) · Hana says Q3 operating-profit consensus for shipbuilders rose 5.0% over the past month, with HD Hyundai up 12.9% (October 14 research) · Samsung Heavy Industries reports Q3 results at 2:00 p.m. October 29 (company IR filing)

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

Middle East contracts are still prospects predicated on the war ending · It remains unclear how much of the sector's resilience reflected company-specific drivers and how much was simply relative performance during a broader collapse (interpretation)

04FRIDAY NIGHT

After Korea closed,
the numbers Monday must absorb.

U.S. chip stocks fell again after Korea's October 16 rebound · Oil briefly hit $110 · CXMT released preliminary results in China · Treasury yields eased, but the Fed made no promises

OCT 16 · U.S. SEMICONDUCTORS

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -3.83% · Eighth straight decline

  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 11,137.29 on October 16 U.S. time · All 30 constituents fell · Micron -5.63% · Nvidia -1.43%
  • CoreWeave -11.91%($61.39) · Down 25.21% for the week · It surrendered all of the previous day's gains following Jensen Huang's remarks, and then some · Borrowing costs moved back into focus for the debt-financed data-center operator · Debt details in 01 Anatomy of the Selloff
  • Nasdaq -2.14% · S&P500 -1.09% · Dow Jones -0.34% · The Nasdaq fell more than 4% for the week, its worst since June (reports) · Energy was the only sector to register a substantial gain
  • The Korean rebound on the 16th did not yet reflect these U.S. losses · SK hynix +0.79% and Samsung Electronics +2.62% that day
OCT 16 EVENING · CHINESE MEMORY

CXMT Q3 sales +589-619% · Unaudited preliminary figures

  • Chinese DRAM maker CXMT released its own unaudited January-September earnings projections on Friday evening, after Korea's close · It estimates Q3 revenue at RMB 114.7bn-119.7bn, up 589-619% from a year earlier and 15-20% from Q2 (reports)
  • January-September revenue was projected at RMB 265bn-270bn and net income at RMB 131bn-132.5bn, a swing into profit from a RMB 5.28bn loss a year earlier · Its chairman proposed a RMB 1bn-2bn share buyback
  • What these preliminary numbers establish is the scale of revenue from its existing products · The next-generation server DRAM plan announced on the 13th still requires separate verification · Brokerage views in 02 Q1
OCT 16 · MIDDLE EAST · OIL

Even the port bypassing Hormuz was threatened. Brent nears $110.

  • Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at its Red Sea oil-export port of Yanbu on October 16 local time · Initial reports indicated no damage at the port · Yanbu allows crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz
  • Brent $109.86 (+3.72%) · Touched $110 intraday · Highest settlement since May 19 · WTI $101.41 (+3.51%) · Weekly WTI +10.4% · Brent +4.9%
  • At least nine tankers and cargo ships have reportedly been attacked around Hormuz since October 11 (reports citing CNBC) · Crude flows through the strait averaged 9.4mn barrels per day in the week to the 14th, about 70% of prewar levels (Kpler)
  • Supply response: IEA members agreed on October 15 to accelerate strategic-stock releases and make more than 20mn barrels of diesel available · On the 16th, the U.S. Department of Energy opened a tender to loan up to 17mn barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
  • A tender is not the same as actual supply · In June, requirements to return borrowed SPR crude with up to 24% extra reportedly limited actual loans to around 500,000 barrels · Whether Friday's proposed 17mn barrels reach the market remains to be seen
OCT 16 · U.S. RATES · FED

The 10-year yield fell to 5.09%. The Fed gave no advance signal.

  • U.S. Treasury 10-year yields: 5.19% on October 14, 5.10% on the 15th, 5.09% on the 16th · Two-year yields: 4.82% → 4.77% → 4.74%
  • Fed Chair Warsh declined to pre-announce decisions for the remaining meetings · CME FedWatch implied an 85% probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting (reports)
  • A renewed rise in oil could disrupt the inflation path again · September U.S. producer prices rose 1.3% month on month, the steepest increase since March 2022
05DATES TO WATCH

China's growth figures first.
Then the BOK and chip-equipment earnings.

NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR The three questions will be scored in next week's Weekly · Detailed rules in 02

Friday night's U.S. session

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive sessions · Brent near $110 · Both will be reflected in Korea's opening prices on October 19

China's Q3 GDP during the session

11:00 a.m.: China Q3 GDP, September industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment · Parliamentary audit of Korea's Financial Supervisory Service · Q2 scorekeeping begins

Netflix earnings

September U.S. housing starts on the 20th local time · Netflix Q3 results after the U.S. close

October 1-20 exports · U.S. equipment earnings

6:00 a.m.: BOK September producer prices · Korea Customs Service preliminary October 1-20 imports and exports · Texas Instruments, Lam Research and Tesla report after the October 21 U.S. close (available in Korea the morning of the 22nd)

BOK monetary-policy decision

Policy rate: 3.00% · Most forecasts call for a hold; the possibility of another hike in November is the key question (reports) · Lam Research and Texas Instruments results first reflected in Korean opening prices · Joint parliamentary audit of economic ministries and financial regulators

October flash PMIs

Preliminary October purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the U.S., euro area, U.K. and Japan · Q1 and Q3 scored against the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index close and Brent settlement on October 23 U.S. time

Q1
Will U.S. semiconductors end the week higher?

Met if the index closes above 11,137.29 on October 23 U.S. time · Partly met from 10,803.2 to 11,137.29 inclusive · Not met below 10,803.2

Q2
Will foreigners be net buyers on at least two days?

Met with two or more foreign net-buying sessions in KOSPI cash equities (including other foreign accounts) October 19-23 · Partly met with one · Not met with zero · KRX 3:38 p.m. snapshot

Q3
Will Brent retreat below $105?

Met if the October 23 settlement is below $105 · Partly met from $105 inclusive to below $109.86 · Not met at $109.86 or above

CLOSING THOUGHT

Treasury yields fell, but semiconductors fell harder.
Next week, we ask whether U.S. chips can finish higher, foreign investors can buy on two days, and Brent can return below $105.

SOURCES

Data and References
Weekly indices · October 12-16
IndexBase closeOct 16 closeWeekly change
KOSPI6,625.935,668.05-14.46%
KOSDAQ892.27794.78-10.93%

The base is the previous trading day's close, October 8 · The KOSPI lost 957.88 points over the week · From its October 2 close of 7,003.74 to October 15's 5,554.22, it fell 20.7% across seven sessions

DateOpenCloseChangeShare advancing
10/126,578.176,384.24-3.65%18.2%
10/136,186.086,035.35-5.46%26.9%
10/146,062.086,008.81-0.44%55.0%
10/155,673.015,554.22-7.57%12.5%
10/165,653.995,668.05+2.05%82.9%

Advancers as a share of KOSPI stocks · Numerator includes rising and limit-up stocks; denominator includes unchanged stocks · KOSDAQ shares advancing: Oct 12 13.1%; Oct 13 24.7%; Oct 14 45.6%; Oct 15 6.6%; Oct 16 84.9%

Daily KOSDAQ returns: Oct 12 -4.83%; Oct 13 -1.43%; Oct 14 -1.57%; Oct 15 -7.65%; Oct 16 +4.46% · KOSDAQ investor flows over five sessions: foreigners +₩20bn, institutions -₩356bn, retail +₩285bn (KRX 3:38 p.m. snapshot, figures in ₩1bn units)

KOSPI trading value: Oct 12 ₩21.3299tn; Oct 13 ₩26.7946tn; Oct 14 ₩19.9282tn; Oct 15 ₩26.8661tn; Oct 16 ₩20.0213tn · Circuit breakers on the 15th: KOSPI 12:38 p.m., KOSDAQ 12:23 p.m. · Sell-side program curb on KOSPI: Oct 13 9:47 a.m., Oct 15 9:07 a.m. · Buy-side program curb on KOSDAQ: Oct 16 12:55 p.m.

Weekly stocks · Top 10 by market capitalization
StockOct 8 closeOct 16 closeWeekly change
Samsung Biologics1,219,0001,298,000+6.48%
LG Energy Solution401,000403,000+0.50%
KB Financial Group162,800160,000-1.72%
Hyundai Motor324,500312,000-3.85%
Samsung Life Insurance269,000238,500-11.34%
Samsung Electronics preferred194,000167,200-13.81%
Samsung Electronics262,000215,500-17.75%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics1,546,0001,188,000-23.16%
SK hynix1,681,0001,272,000-24.33%
SK Square1,050,000784,000-25.33%

Share prices in KRW · Regular-session closes on October 8 and 16 · The stocks listed were the 10 largest by market capitalization on October 16

Weekly investor flows · Net KOSPI purchases
DateForeignInstitutionsRetail
10/12-₩2.019tn-₩111bn+₩1.467tn
10/13-₩4.513tn+₩1.690tn+₩2.227tn
10/14-₩1.180tn+₩808bn-₩314bn
10/15-₩3.624tn+₩1.693tn+₩1.289tn
10/16+₩341bn-₩683bn-₩485bn
Total-₩10.995tn+₩3.397tn+₩4.184tn

All five sessions use the KRX 3:38 p.m. snapshot (₩1bn units) · Foreign investors include the 'other foreign' category · Other corporations are omitted here; the ₩3.414tn difference balancing the three reported categories represents net buying by other corporations and remaining classifications · October 16 figures are preliminary

Foreign KOSPI 200 futures flows: Oct 12 +₩752bn; Oct 13 +₩390bn; Oct 14 +₩845bn; Oct 15 +₩1.210tn; Oct 16 -₩954bn · Five-day total +₩2.243tn (KRX 3:49 p.m. snapshot) · Non-arbitrage program trading: Oct 12 -₩1.1564tn; Oct 13 -₩2.1867tn; Oct 14 -₩67.4bn; Oct 15 +₩54.4bn; Oct 16 +₩573.1bn (regular-session close compilation)

Consecutive selling days on final data: reports using the KRX final tally, including after-hours transactions, show foreign net buying on October 1 followed by eight consecutive selling days from October 2 to 15 · October 16's switch to net buying is preliminary

Weekly sectors and themes
CategoryNameWeekly change
KOSPI sectorPharmaceuticals+4.75%
KOSPI sectorFood, Beverages & Tobacco+4.61%
KOSPI sectorEntertainment & Culture+4.12%
KOSPI sectorTransportation & Warehousing+2.63%
KOSPI sectorFinancials-9.92%
KOSPI sectorMachinery & Equipment-15.58%
KOSPI sectorElectrical & Electronic Equipment-19.66%
KRX themeBio Top 10+1.26%
KRX themeKOSPI High Dividend 50-1.43%
KRX themeSecondary Battery Top 10-5.25%
KRX themeK-AI Defense Top 5+-6.13%
KRX themeShipbuilding Top 10-7.52%
KRX themeAI Power Infrastructure-14.58%
KRX themeAI Semiconductors-15.99%
KRX themeSemiconductor Top 15-21.06%
KRX themeK-AI Semiconductor Top 2+-22.31%

Calculated from KRX sector and thematic-index closes on October 8 and 16 · Sector returns are market-cap-weighted index performance, not sector-level net inflows · Only four of the 24 KOSPI sectors rose: Pharmaceuticals; Food, Beverages & Tobacco; Entertainment & Culture; and Transportation & Warehousing

Sources · Data conventions

Indices, market breadth, trading value, investor flows, futures and program trading: Korea Exchange (KRX), regular-session final data · Investor flows use the 3:38 p.m. snapshot · Base prices are October 8 closes

Weekly individual-stock returns: regular-session closes on October 8 and 16 · Sectors and themes: KRX industry and thematic indices · Stocks with the highest foreign net buys and sells on October 16: Pinpoint News(citing Korea Exchange data)

Margin-liquidation data and investor deposits: Financial News(Korea Financial Investment Association figures) · SK hynix buyback period: Financial News(reporting on the August 19 disclosure)

USD/KRW: 3:30 p.m. domestic-session close · Oct 8 ₩1,338.5 (NewsPim close); Oct 16 ₩1,331.4: Green Economic Daily

U.S. market: October 16 local closes and Jensen Huang's remarks: TheStreet · Declines across all 30 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index constituents, Micron and CoreWeave performance: TradingKey · Eighth consecutive semiconductor-index decline and Nvidia: Green Economic Daily · Weekly Nasdaq performance, Fed Chair Warsh and CME FedWatch probabilities: Block Media · CoreWeave borrowing, lease liabilities and its 2032 bond yield: Axios · Vivek Arya's assessment: Benzinga

TSMC Q4 outlook: TSMC Q3 earnings release (U.S. SEC filing)

Oil and Middle East: Yanbu missile interception, Brent and WTI closes and weekly moves, attacks near Hormuz (citing CNBC), Kpler oil-flow estimates, the IEA, U.S. SPR and Eurasia Group: Edaily · June SPR tender's return terms and actual borrowing: OilPrice

CXMT preliminary results: announcement timing, January-September revenue and earnings, proposed buyback: 每日经济新闻 · Q3 revenue range and growth rates: Seoul Economic Daily

U.S. Treasury yields: U.S. Treasury daily par-yield series · September producer prices: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Next week's calendar and BOK policy outlook: NewsPim · Domestic and international calendar items: The Korea Economic Daily · Economic Review · Top Star News · Netflix: Company announcement · Texas Instruments, Lam Research and Tesla: company investor-relations notices (TI · Lam · Tesla)

Domestic earnings: SK hynix at 9:00 a.m. October 28: News1 · Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Samsung SDI, Samsung Heavy Industries, Kia and Hyundai Mobis: Factstock earnings calendar(based on disclosures) · S-Oil has not yet announced its earnings date

Brokerage research (authors and dates): Eugene Investment & Securities, Kang Song-cheol (October 13: KOSPI 5,500-6,200 and the earnings-cut scenario; rebound odds after sharp selloffs), Hwang Sung-hyun (October 13: refining)

Daishin Securities, Kwon Soon-ho (October 13: semiconductor forward P/E percentile), Lee Kyung-min (October 12: oil scenarios; October 14: bottoming checklist, recovery order, buyback data), October 12 "Quantin Jeonsi" research (cumulative foreign selling in semiconductors)

Hanwha Investment & Securities, Ahn Hyun-guk (October 15: KOSPI P/E scenarios, biotech model portfolio, margin debt, budget FX rate), Ha Jang-kwon (October 14: CXMT assessment), Park Se-yeon (October 12: third ESS tender)

Kiwoom Securities, Han Ji-young (October 13: CXMT; October 14-15: turnover and bottoming), Huh Hye-min (October 13: biotech), Ahn Young-jun (October 15: insurance)

Hana Securities, Kim Rok-ho (October 12: memory), Yoon Jae-sung (October 12: refining), Choi Jung-wook (October 12: banks), Koh Yeon-soo (October 14: brokerage), Kim Hyun-soo (October 12/15: batteries and ESS), Lee Kyung-soo (October 14: consensus shifts), Huh Sung-woo (October 13: U.S. 10-year yields)

iM Securities, Kim Jun-young (October 12: SK hynix), Park Sang-hyun (October 13: JPY/KRW), IBK Investment & Securities, Lee Dong-wook (October 14: refining), DS Investment & Securities, Kang Tae-ho (October 12: potential defense orders) · All dates refer to October 2026

Previous reports: www.snowshagal.com