Snowshagal Weekly | October 10, 2026 | Down 5.4% in Three Sessions: What Drove the Selloff?
2026.10.10Korea Stock Market Weekly
Snowshagal Weekly

Three Days, Down 5.4%
What Drove It?

THE WEEK IN ONE LINE

Samsung Q3: record KRW 107tn; shares -5.07%.Only LG Energy Solution gained among the top ten.

Find our earlier reports, Dailies and market dashboard at snowshagal.com snowshagal.com
KOREAN AND U.S. REGULAR-SESSION CLOSES CONFIRMEDKorean market data through the Oct. 8 close; U.S. regular-session data through the Oct. 9 close | Korea closed Oct. 9 for Hangul Day | Next Korean session: Oct. 12 | Five trading days next week
00THE WEEK AHEAD

KRW 8.7tn Sold in Three Days;
Retail Bought KRW 6.2tn

Review period: October 6-8 (three sessions). Next week: October 12-16 (five Korean sessions). We will score the three questions below in next week's Weekly.

OUR READING OF THE WEEK
Not an earnings collapse.
High discount rates met
heavy selling in the index heavyweights.
  • The KOSPI fell for three straight sessions, from 7,003.74 to 6,625.93, even as Samsung Electronics reported Q3 operating profit of KRW 107.4tn, a quarterly record.
  • Foreign selling of large caps, fading buyback demand, options expiry and ETF rebalancing all converged against high U.S. yields. See 01 | What Drove the Fall
  • The KOSDAQ lost just 0.11%, while the Secondary Battery TOP 10 rose 5.11%. This was not a market-wide collapse. The question for next week is whether foreign selling and memory-chip weakness persist after the one-off flow events have passed.
  1. Semiconductors / Memory

    The Oct. 12 open must absorb two weaker U.S. semiconductor sessions. TSMC reports Q3 earnings on Oct. 15, while SK hynix's buyback is nearing completion.

  2. U.S. Inflation / Yields

    September U.S. CPI arrives Oct. 14 at 9:30 p.m. KST; core month-on-month forecasts are 0.2%-0.3%. The U.S. Treasury's Oct. 9 10-year yield reading was 5.24%.

  3. Oil / Middle East

    President Trump says there will be no strike before the midterms. Iran is reviewing the U.S. response to its proposed seven-day reopening of Hormuz. Brent settled at $104.72.

THIS WEEK'S MARKET
KOSPI -5.39% | KOSDAQ -0.11%

A 5.28-percentage-point spread. The KOSDAQ surged 2.98% to 919.92 on Oct. 6, then declined over the next two sessions to finish close to where it began. Fewer than half of KOSPI constituents advanced on each day.

NEXT WEEK'S PIVOT
CPI and TSMC, Just One Day Apart

ASML's Q3 results and U.S. September CPI on Oct. 14 (9:30 p.m. KST); TSMC's Q3 earnings call on Oct. 15 (3 p.m. KST). SK hynix's buyback also approaches its end.

DURING THE KOREAN HOLIDAY
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -3.78% in Two Sessions

The SOX fell 3.39% on Oct. 8 following reports about OpenAI's revenue and another 0.41% on Oct. 9, even as the S&P 500 gained 0.12% across the two days.

01WHAT THIS WEEK LEFT BEHIND

Tuesday Opened at the High;
Thursday Closed at the Low

The week's high was Tuesday's opening 7,044.67; its low was Thursday's closing 6,625.93. See each Daily for the intraday path.

Weekly performance | 2026.10.06~10.08Top 10 stocks by market cap versus the benchmark indices | Oct. 2 close to Oct. 8 close

Stock returns use Oct. 2 and Oct. 8 regular-session closes. LG Energy Solution was the only gainer among the ten largest stocks. The two index rows are benchmarks; a stock above the KOSPI row outperformed the index, even if it fell.

01

Foreigners Sold All Three Sessions;
Institutions Joined with Over KRW 1tn Thursday

  • Foreign investors sold a net KRW 1.751tn in KOSPI cash equities on Oct. 6, then -KRW 2.598tn on Oct. 7 and -KRW 1.988tn on Oct. 8. Their selling streak reached nine trading sessions, dating back to Sept. 23.
  • Institutions went from selling just KRW 2bn on Oct. 6 to -KRW 1.671tn on Oct. 8, when options expiry coincided with semiconductor ETF rebalancing.
  • Retail investors bought a net KRW 6.204tn over the three sessions. Daily net purchases rose from KRW 741bn to KRW 2.557tn and then KRW 2.906tn.
  • Foreigners also sold KOSPI 200 futures all three days (-KRW 254bn, -KRW 292bn and -KRW 1.247tn). Non-arbitrage program trading recorded a combined net sale of KRW 4.037tn.
02

Breadth Began Below Half;
Fewer Stocks Rose Each Day

  • Share of advancers measures the number of rising KOSPI constituents divided by all constituents. The dashed line marks 50%.
  • Last week, advancers exceeded half the market on three of five days. This week, all three sessions stayed below 50%, and the share shrank each day. KOSDAQ breadth went from 58.4% to 34.3%, then 36.0%.
03

Record Earnings;
Falling Share Price

  • Samsung Electronics reported Q3 operating profit of KRW 107.4tn on revenue of KRW 195tn, slightly above the lowered pre-release consensus range of KRW 105.5tn-KRW 106.9tn (depending on source). Its announcement-day return was -2.42%
  • LG Energy Solution reported Q3 operating profit of KRW 756bn, well above the KRW 339.3bn expectation compiled by Yonhap Infomax. Its weekly return was +8.09% for the week, the only top-10 market-cap stock to gain.
04

Last Week's Priority Sectors;
One Week Later

  • Semiconductors: KRX Semiconductor Top 15 -3.39%; SK hynix -8.69%, a deeper loss than the KOSPI. Samsung Electronics fell 5.07%, roughly in line with the index.
  • Refining · S-Oil +1.50%: SK Innovation +4.48% (which includes a battery business) moved against the falling KOSPI. On the Chinese refined-product exports flagged last week, reports citing Reuters said exports were set to resume after the National Day holiday (Oct. 9 local).
  • Defense: K-AI Defense TOP5+ -12.04%; Shipbuilding TOP10 -9.15%, more than reversing its 4.66% gain on Oct. 2. See 03 | Sectors
  • Secondary batteries: Secondary Battery TOP 10 +5.11%; K-AI Secondary Battery +5.55%. LG Energy Solution reported earnings this week.
  • Only four KOSPI sectors gained: Medical & Precision Equipment (+11.99%, eight stocks), Entertainment & Culture, Textiles & Apparel and Chemicals. Transportation Equipment & Parts (-8.68%), Metals (-6.06%) and Electrical & Electronics (-5.83%) led the declines.
DATE
KOSPI
WHAT MOVED EACH SESSION
10.06
-0.89%
Tuesday opened at 7,044.67 on U.S. AI strength; the open was also the day's high. Foreigners targeted Samsung Electronics and SK hynix amid weak Micron shares and high long-term yields. The KOSDAQ rose 2.98%.
10.07
-1.98%
Wednesday opened lower after U.S. memory-chip weakness. Foreign selling picked up after the 9:45 a.m. high, and the index closed near its lows. LG Electronics plunged 10.54% after disappointing results.
10.08
-2.62%
Thursday: Samsung Electronics fell 2.42% despite record Q3 earnings. Options expiry, ETF rebalancing and joint foreign/institutional selling ahead of the holiday pushed the close to the session low.
Last week's question: Did the KOSPI close above 7,000 on all three days?
Not met.
  • Zero closes above 7,000: Oct. 6 at 6,941.39; Oct. 7 at 6,803.90; Oct. 8 at 6,625.93.
  • The index stayed above 7,000 only from Tuesday's opening 7,044.67 to roughly 10:15 a.m.
Last week's question: Did foreign investors turn net buyers in KOSPI cash equities?
Not met.
  • Zero net-buying days. Net selling exceeded KRW 1tn each session, extending the streak to nine trading days.
  • Foreigners also sold futures on all three days, reversing the net buying seen on Oct. 2.
Last week's question: Did Samsung Electronics' Q3 operating profit exceed KRW 110tn?
Partly met.
  • Last week's thresholds: KRW 110tn or more = met; KRW 104tn to below KRW 110tn = partly met; below KRW 104tn = not met. The KRW 104tn threshold came from DS Investment & Securities' estimate.
  • Preliminary operating profit was KRW 107.4tn, within the partly met band and above the lowered pre-release consensus. Shares lost 2.42% on announcement day.
WHAT KIND OF CORRECTION WAS THIS?

Selling pressure met high discount rates,
dragging down large caps and market breadth.

Samsung beat lowered expectations. The slide began with flows, not an earnings miss.
  • Discount-rate pressure: The U.S. 10-year yield touched 5.36% intraday Oct. 7; the Oct. 9 Treasury reading was 5.24%. Rates remained elevated ahead of Oct. 14 CPI.
  • The changing marginal buyer: Foreigners sold KRW 6.337tn and institutions KRW 2.341tn over three days, while retail absorbed KRW 6.204tn. Samsung Electronics' buyback had ended and SK hynix's was nearing completion. Retail appears to have replaced buybacks as an important source of demand (our interpretation).
  • Narrowing participation: The KOSDAQ lost only 0.11% and the Secondary Battery TOP 10 gained 5.11%, so this was no indiscriminate selloff. Yet KOSPI breadth fell from 46.3% to 36.5% to 27.7%, and KOSDAQ breadth was in the 30s for the last two sessions.
  • A different reading: Eugene Investment & Securities argues that continuing inflows into equity funds mean the end of corporate buybacks need not create an immediate gap in demand.
EVENTS NOW BEHIND USOct. 8 options expiry | Rebalancing of seven semiconductor ETFs on Oct. 8 | Samsung preliminary earnings | Hangul Day holiday (market reopens Oct. 12)
STILL TO COMEAdditional ETF rebalancing on Oct. 12 | Nine straight foreign net-selling sessions | SK hynix buyback nearing completion | U.S. 10-year yields around 5.2% | Weaker U.S. semiconductors over the holiday | Brent around $104 | Fresh questions about AI investment returns after Korea's close
WHAT EASED THE PRESSURE

Nasdaq rebounded 0.64% locally on Oct. 9 | Much of the gap between reported OpenAI revenue figures reflects different measurement methods | President Trump said strikes would wait until after the midterms

02THREE QUESTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK

Five Trading Days,
Two Dates That Matter Most

Korea has five trading sessions, October 12-16. U.S. bond markets close Oct. 12 for Columbus Day; U.S. September CPI arrives on the evening of Oct. 14 KST, followed by TSMC earnings the afternoon of Oct. 15. Questions 1 and 3 cover the full five days; Question 2 is scored using the U.S. Treasury's Oct. 16 yield reading.

Q.01

After Nine Sessions of Selling,
Will Foreign Buying Last?

  • Foreigners have been net sellers for nine consecutive sessions since Sept. 23. This week's daily average was about -KRW 2.11tn, exceeding last week's five-session average of roughly -KRW 1.77tn.
  • The won strengthened nonetheless: USD/KRW fell from 1,350.6 to 1,338.5 at the 3:30 p.m. Korean close. This does not resemble an exit accompanied by a currency selloff (our interpretation).
  • Kiwoom Securities puts foreign selling of KOSPI semiconductor shares at KRW 16.2tn in September and KRW 4.1tn so far in October (Oct. 7 data). Memory heavyweights remain the center of the selling. For the changing buyer base, see 01 | What Drove the Fall
  • Eugene Investment & Securities attributes renewed foreign selling since September to the speed of the rise in yields. It expects the selling to ease only once yields stop climbing (Oct. 6 note).

SCORING RULE: Count Oct. 12-16 sessions when foreigners, including the KRX 'other foreign investors' category, are net buyers of KOSPI cash equities.
Two or more days = met; one = partly met; zero = not met. KRX 3:38 p.m. data.

WHAT WOULD SIGNAL A TURNForeign futures buying resumes | U.S. 10-year yield below 5.2% | Semiconductors enter foreigners' top net-buying list
WHAT WOULD KEEP SELLING IN PLACEU.S. September CPI beats forecasts | Another decline in U.S. chip stocks | SK hynix and Samsung repeatedly top the net-selling list
HOW WE WILL READ THE DATACash equities and futures are separate markets. We will also check whether retail or institutions absorb any remaining foreign selling over the same five days.
Q.02

After September U.S. CPI,
Will the 10-Year Fall Below 5.2%?

  • U.S. Treasury 10-year yield readings: Oct. 6, 5.27%; Oct. 7, 5.28%; Oct. 8, 5.22%; Oct. 9, 5.24%. The yield reached 5.36% intraday Oct. 7, its highest since 2002.
  • September CPI is due Oct. 14 at 9:30 p.m. KST. Major forecasts: headline +0.5%-0.6% month on month and core +0.2%-0.3%, depending on the survey. Our key core-CPI reference is +0.2% month on month.In August, headline CPI was +0.4% month on month and +3.4% year on year; core was +0.3% and +2.4%, respectively.
  • The Fed raised its policy-rate range to 3.75%-4.00% in September. Minutes showed most participants considered one further increase by year-end likely appropriate. CME FedWatch priced a 19.4% chance of an October hike (Kiwoom Securities, Oct. 7).
  • Daishin Securities sees a decline in yields requiring both stabilizing oil prices as U.S.-Iran relations improve and softer September inflation. Kiwoom instead expects yields to remain high and range-bound: monetary policy limits the upside, while fiscal pressures and Treasury supply support the floor.

SCORING RULE: The U.S. Treasury's Oct. 16 published 10-year yield must be below 5.20% for a full pass.
From 5.20% to below 5.30% = partly met; 5.30% or higher = not met. The 5.20% mark is this Weekly's observation threshold, just below this week's published low of 5.22%. The 5.30% level is the top of Hanwha Investment & Securities' October range.

WHAT WOULD HELP YIELDS FALLCore CPI at +0.2% month on month or less | Brent below $100 | Softer retail sales on Oct. 15
WHAT COULD PUSH YIELDS BACK UPHeadline CPI above +0.6% month on month | Another oil spike | A synchronized rise in European long yields
HOW WE WILL READ THE DATAU.S. bond markets are closed Oct. 12. Korea's Oct. 15 open is the first to price in the CPI release. Treasury readings refer to U.S. session-end levels.
Q.03

Will Samsung and SK hynix
Both Rebound, with at Least One
Outperforming the KOSPI?

  • Oct. 8 closes: Samsung Electronics KRW 262,000; SK hynix KRW 1,681,000. Weekly returns: -5.07% and -8.69%, respectively.
  • What the Oct. 12 open must absorb: U.S.-listed SK hynix shares lost 4.35% on Oct. 8 and another 0.86% on Oct. 9, local time.
  • ASML reports Oct. 14 and TSMC reports Q3 results Oct. 15. Korea Customs Service publishes Oct. 1-10 exports on Oct. 12. There were only 3.5 working days in the year-earlier period because of Chuseok; daily-average exports will be more informative than the headline year-on-year rate.
  • Kiwoom says investor attention has shifted from this year's results to the durability of earnings beyond next year. Its Oct. 7 consensus figures for 2027 operating profit were KRW 554tn for Samsung Electronics and KRW 401tn for SK hynix.

SCORING RULE: At the Oct. 16 close, both shares must be up for the week and at least one must outperform the KOSPI's weekly return for the question to be fully met.
If either share is up but the full test fails = partly met. If both fall = not met. Because CPI could move the whole index sharply, we are using relative performance as well as absolute returns.

WHAT WOULD SUPPORT A REBOUNDTSMC raises next-quarter guidance | Daily-average chip exports rise for Oct. 1-10 | Both names drop out of foreigners' top net-selling list
WHAT WOULD UNDERMINE ITFurther U.S. semiconductor weakness | Shares cannot recover the Oct. 12 opening gap intraday | A demand gap after buybacks end
HOW WE WILL READ THE DATAOct. 12 must price in two days of U.S. developments at once. The verdict will be based on the Oct. 16 close, not Monday alone.
03SECTOR PRIORITIES

Where to Look
First Next Week

TSMC's Oct. 15 report is the semiconductor pivot; earnings divide battery names. For defense and shipbuilding, orders and earnings will determine whether the trend holds.

Semiconductors / Memory | Record earnings, falling shares
PRIORITY 1
Secondary Batteries | Actual earnings offer the first test
PRIORITY 2
Defense / Shipbuilding | This week's steepest sector losses
PRIORITY 3
Financials | Bank earnings season starts in the U.S.
PRIORITY 4
Refining | Hormuz, China and a hurricane
PRIORITY 5
FIRST ON THE WATCHLIST

Semiconductors / Memory

NEXT WEEK'S ORDER OF EVENTS

First, the Oct. 12 open absorbs U.S. semiconductor losses.
The first decisive read arrives with TSMC's Oct. 15 results.

This week: Samsung Electronics -5.07%; SK hynix -8.69%; KRX Semiconductor Top 15 -3.39%. Both stocks declined over a week in which Samsung reported record quarterly operating profit.
WHY NOW WHY NOW
  • High long-term yields have been joined by renewed doubts about returns on AI investment. The SOX fell 3.39% on Oct. 8 after reports about OpenAI's revenue. For what those figures do, and do not, mean, see 04 | The Holiday Gap
  • Meritz Securities attributes two months of range-bound semiconductor shares to a lack of earnings momentum. It sees Q3 results season as a test of whether consensus can sustain three successive years of profit growth through 2028.
  • Buybacks: SK hynix had completed 83% of its KRW 40tn program as of Oct. 6. Daishin says shares repurchased for cancellation do not return to the market, so the program's completion alone is not a bearish argument; persistent foreign selling remains a concern.
-3.78%PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX | OCT. 8-9, U.S. SESSIONS

While Korea was closed,
U.S. chip stocks fell first.

BROKER VIEWS WHAT THE STREET SAYS
  • BULL CASE: Meritz raised its Samsung Electronics operating-profit estimates on Oct. 7 to KRW 632tn for 2027 and KRW 735tn for 2028. The question is whether those formidable forward estimates are credible.
  • CAUTION: Kiwoom says the central concern is whether memory-chip supply-demand balance and margins survive capacity expansion by the three main producers. Questions about returns on AI spending also intensified after Korea's close. The preliminary results contain no segment breakdown or earnings call; the next evidence comes from TSMC and Samsung's full results in late October.
KOSPI Forward P/E: Daishin's Valuation Exercise
  • Daishin considers the KOSPI's 12-month forward P/E of 5.26x near historical lows and calculates a level around 7,700 at 6x.
  • That assumes today's elevated forward earnings estimates hold. If the earnings denominator falls, today's P/E of around 5x changes too.
NEXT CATALYSTS AND FAILURE CONDITIONS NEXT CATALYST
  • OCT. 12: Korea reopens; two U.S. chip sessions are priced in, Oct. 1-10 exports are released, and Kiwoom flags another ETF rebalancing.
  • OCT. 14: ASML Q3 results (Korean afternoon); U.S. September CPI at 9:30 p.m. KST. For the CPI threshold, see 02 Q2
  • OCT. 15 | 3 P.M. KST: TSMC Q3 earnings call (2 p.m. Taiwan time). For the complete calendar, see 05 | Calendar
  • FAILURE CONDITIONS: TSMC's next-quarter outlook misses market expectations; Samsung and SK hynix remain foreigners' two biggest net sells; both underperform the KOSPI through Oct. 16.

Outside semiconductors,
the divide is between earnings already reported and catalysts still to come.

REPORTED EARNINGS

Secondary Batteries

WHY NOW

The KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10 returned +5.11% this week. LG Energy Solution returned +8.09%, the only gainer among the ten largest stocks. Q3 operating profit was KRW 756bn, far above Yonhap Infomax's KRW 339.3bn consensus; quarterly revenue hit a record KRW 9.6434tn.

WHAT TO WATCH

Hana Securities expects battery-cell manufacturers to benefit from North American energy-storage shipments and U.S. production tax credits, while most cathode-material producers miss consensus. Earnings are diverging even within the battery supply chain.

THE CATCH

Of LG Energy Solution's KRW 756bn operating profit, an estimated KRW 416.9bn came from U.S. production tax credits, more than half the total. Hana also puts the three Korean manufacturers' combined European market share at 29% in January-August 2026, down from 55% in 2023.

Changes in Q3 Operating-Profit Consensus: Cells vs. Cathodes
  • Samsung SDI: KRW 142bn to KRW 218bn
  • L&F: KRW 25bn to KRW 3bn
  • LG Chem: KRW 187bn to KRW 76bn
  • Hanwha Investment & Securities figures; three-month consensus versus one-month consensus.
TRENDS TO REASSESS

Defense / Shipbuilding

WHY NOW

K-AI Defense TOP5+ returned -12.04% this week, while Shipbuilding TOP10 returned -9.15%. They were the two weakest KRX theme indices. Defense / Aerospace: Hanwha Aerospace dropped 4.99% on Oct. 7, the day of the successful Nuri rocket launch, and lost another 7%-plus on Oct. 8. Foreign brokerages appeared among the top selling desks in aerospace names on Oct. 7.

WHAT TO WATCH

First determine whether this is a price correction or a change in industry fundamentals. Hanwha Investment & Securities ranks shipbuilding among the major sectors trading closest to their one-month lows, with a 2026 P/E of 9.4x and ROE of 26.1%. IBK Investment & Securities reports that one-year VLGC charter rates have risen 51.8% from their May peak and expects strong orders through 2028. That evidence concerns one vessel class, LPG carriers.

THE CATCH

Defense / Aerospace looks closer to profit-taking after the Nuri success compounded by broader market weakness (our interpretation). Shipbuilding is different: we found no industry-specific fundamental shock this week. The next earnings reports and order announcements must show whether the trend has broken. Kiwoom expects defense orders to be concentrated toward year-end (last week's note).

SCHEDULED CATALYSTS

Financials

WHY NOW

KOSPI Financials returned -5.15% this week; Securities -5.72%, Insurance -3.77%. Financials lost 4.11% on Oct. 8 alone, with 116 of 141 constituents down.

WHAT TO WATCH

Hana Securities forecasts roughly KRW 7.4tn in Q3 net profit for Korean bank holding companies, ahead of consensus. Excluding around KRW 800bn in nonrecurring FX translation and property-sale gains, it expects net profit to fall 6.5% quarter on quarter. U.S. bank earnings begin Oct. 13 with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, followed Oct. 14 by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Yuanta sees a rising-rate environment as favorable to bank shares.

THE CATCH

U.S. bank results respond to U.S. yields, while Korean banks face Bank of Korea rates and the won. One should not mechanically infer Korean bank-share performance from U.S. earnings. Hana estimates net interest margins narrowed by an average three basis points.

CHANGING DRIVERS

Refining

WHY NOW

Brent settled at $104.72 on Oct. 9, local time. Reports on Oct. 8 that the U.S. was preparing to resume major military operations against Iran coincided with a +4.07%. President Trump said there would be no strike before the Nov. 3 midterms, but the Iran blockade would stay. Iran was still reviewing the U.S. response to its Sept. 25 proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days.

WHAT TO WATCH

Hurricane Isaias took 62.9% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production offline on Oct. 8 (about 1.30m barrels/day), rising to 71.51% (around 1.46m barrels/day) on Oct. 9. Isaias made Category 2 landfall near Destin, Florida, that evening, then weakened below tropical-cyclone strength within hours. The next variable is not the storm category but the pace of production restoration for the 1.30m-1.46m barrels/day taken offline after offshore installations are inspected. Hanwha Investment & Securities says SK Innovation's Q3 operating-profit consensus rose from KRW 2.14tn to KRW 2.78tn.

THE CATCH

Iran's proposal remains only a conditional offer: lifting the U.S. maritime blockade, waiving oil sanctions and securing a ceasefire including Lebanon. Trump says the blockade will remain. Crude prices and refined-product margins do not move in lockstep (Eugene Investment & Securities).

04WHILE KOREA WAS CLOSED

The Numbers That Moved
Over Hangul Day

U.S. indices recovered, but chip stocks did not; Middle East strike timing shifted. Yields held around 5.2% ahead of CPI.

OCT. 8-9 | U.S. SEMICONDUCTORS

Stocks Rebounded Friday; Chips Slipped Again

  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed -3.39% on Oct. 8. Nvidia lost 2.94%, Micron 4.79%, Broadcom 4.35% and U.S.-listed SK hynix shares 4.35%. The Nasdaq fell 1.25%.
  • The trigger was reporting by the FT and CNBC on OpenAI's revenue. OpenAI's disclosed annualized revenue of roughly $50bn appeared below the approximately $70bn figure previously circulated ($68bn in some Korean reports), reviving concerns about returns on AI investment and financial transparency.
  • But much of the difference comes down to measurement.The $70bn comparison included revenue routed through cloud partners, using a method investors had applied to Anthropic. It does not mean end demand for AI suddenly fell by that amount. Higher financing costs from major fundraising by Broadcom and Oracle were also cited.
  • On Oct. 9, the S&P 500 closed +0.59% and the Nasdaq +0.64%, while the SOX ended -0.41%. Micron lost 0.66% and U.S.-listed SK hynix shares fell 0.86%.
  • Two-session total: S&P 500 +0.12%; Nasdaq -0.63%; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -3.78%
OCT. 8-9 | MIDDLE EAST / OIL

Strikes Delayed; Brent Holds Above $104

  • On Oct. 8, Axios reported that the Pentagon had directed U.S. Central Command to prepare for a resumption of large-scale operations against Iran, without specifying a strike date. Brent settled at $104.28 (+4.07%); WTI at $91.49 (+3.64%)
  • President Trump said talks with Iran were productive and that there would be no strike before the Nov. 3 midterms. The blockade of Iran would remain.
  • On Oct. 9, Brent settled at $104.72 (+0.42%); WTI at $91.85 (+0.39%). Hurricane Isaias caused further oil-production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico that day; see 03 | Refining
OCT. 8-9 | U.S. RATES

Ahead of CPI, the 10-Year Held Near 5.2%

  • Published U.S. Treasury yields: 10-year, 5.28% on Oct. 7, 5.22% on Oct. 8 and 5.24% on Oct. 9; two-year, 4.77%, 4.75% and 4.80%.
  • The University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment index was 46.3, below the 47.6 forecast and September's 48.1.
  • Some European rate pressure eased. Daishin noted that France's 10-year yield retreated below 4.8% after approaching 5%, although fiscal concerns remained.
  • The Fed meets next on Oct. 27-28; the final CPI release before that meeting arrives Oct. 14.
05DATES TO WATCH

From the Reopening
to CPI and TSMC

NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR | All three questions will be scored in next week's Weekly. For detailed thresholds, see Section 02.

Hangul Day / Weekend

U.S. sessions on Oct. 8 and 9 will hit Korean prices together at the Oct. 12 open.

Korea Reopens / Oct. 1-10 Exports

Korea Customs Service releases Oct. 1-10 exports (Oct. 11 is Sunday). Kiwoom flags additional ETF rebalancing. U.S. bond markets are closed, but U.S. equities trade normally. Scoring starts for Questions 1 and 3.

U.S. Bank Earnings Begin

JPMorgan Q3 results at 8 p.m. KST; Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also report. Germany's final September CPI is due.

ASML / September U.S. CPI

ASML Q3 results in the Korean afternoon; September U.S. CPI at 9:30 p.m. KST. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report earnings; China's September CPI is due.

TSMC / First Market Reaction to CPI

Fed Beige Book at 3 a.m. KST. The Korean open first prices in U.S. CPI; TSMC Q3 earnings call at 3 p.m.; U.S. September PPI and retail sales at 9:30 p.m.

Estimated End of SK hynix Buyback

Timing estimated in last week's Daishin note. Euro-area September CPI. Score Question 2 using the U.S. Treasury's Oct. 16 yield reading.

Q1
Did Foreign Buying Return After Nine Selling Sessions?

Two or more net-buying days Oct. 12-16 = met; one = partly met; none = not met.

Q2
Did the U.S. 10-Year Fall Below 5.2% After CPI?

U.S. Treasury Oct. 16 reading below 5.20% = met; below 5.30% = partly met; at or above 5.30% = not met.

Q3
Did Samsung and SK hynix Both Rebound, with One Outperforming the KOSPI?

Both shares up and at least one beats the KOSPI = met; at least one up otherwise = partly met; both down = not met.

CLOSING THOUGHT

Expiry has passed, but the selling has not stopped.
Oct. 12 tests the remaining flows; Oct. 14, the rate outlook; Oct. 15, the next set of semiconductor earnings.

Data

TABLES / SOURCES
Weekly Indices | October 6-8
IndexReference closeOct. 8 closeWeek
KOSPI7,003.746,625.93-5.39%
KOSDAQ893.29892.27-0.11%

Reference closes are from Oct. 2, the preceding trading session. KOSPI's weekly net change was -377.81 points. Oct. 5 was a substitute holiday; Oct. 9 was Hangul Day.

DateOpenCloseChangeShare of advancers
10/067,044.676,941.39-0.89%46.3%
10/076,864.256,803.90-1.98%36.5%
10/086,808.686,625.93-2.62%27.7%

KOSPI breadth: advancers (including limit-up stocks) divided by all issues, including unchanged. KOSDAQ breadth was 58.4% on Oct. 6, 34.3% on Oct. 7 and 36.0% on Oct. 8.

KOSDAQ daily returns: +2.98% Oct. 6, -2.34% Oct. 7, -0.69% Oct. 8. KOSDAQ cumulative three-session flows: foreign -KRW 92bn, institutions -KRW 223bn, retail +KRW 347bn (KRX 3:38 p.m. data, originally in KRW 1bn units).

Weekly Stocks | Top Ten by Market Cap
StockOct. 2 closeOct. 8 closeWeek
LG Energy Solution371,000401,000+8.09%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics1,581,0001,546,000-2.21%
KB Financial167,400162,800-2.75%
Samsung Electronics (preferred)201,000194,000-3.48%
Samsung Electronics276,000262,000-5.07%
Hyundai Motor346,500324,500-6.35%
Samsung Life Insurance289,000269,000-6.92%
SK hynix1,841,0001,681,000-8.69%
SK Square1,160,0001,050,000-9.48%
Samsung Biologics1,354,0001,219,000-9.97%

Prices in KRW, using Oct. 2 and Oct. 8 regular-session closes. Market-cap ranking is as of Oct. 8.

Weekly Investor Flows | KOSPI Cash Equities
DateForeignInstitutionsRetail
10/6-KRW 1.751tn-KRW 2bn+KRW 741bn
10/7-KRW 2.598tn-KRW 668bn+KRW 2.557tn
10/8-KRW 1.988tn-KRW 1.671tn+KRW 2.906tn
Total-KRW 6.337tn-KRW 2.341tn+KRW 6.204tn

All three sessions use final KRX 3:38 p.m. figures (originally in KRW 1bn units), so the totals are comparable. Foreign includes the KRX 'other foreign investors' category. 'Other corporations' are excluded; the three categories therefore do not sum to zero.

KOSPI 200 futures, foreign investors: -KRW 254bn Oct. 6; -KRW 292bn Oct. 7; -KRW 1.247tn Oct. 8; three-day total -KRW 1.793tn (KRX 3:49 p.m.). Non-arbitrage program trading: -KRW 1.2586tn Oct. 6; -KRW 1.9003tn Oct. 7; -KRW 878.1bn Oct. 8 (3:37 p.m.).

Weekly Sectors / Themes
CategoryNameWeek
KOSPI sectorMedical & Precision Equipment+11.99%
KOSPI sectorEntertainment & Culture+3.22%
KOSPI sectorFinancials-5.15%
KOSPI sectorElectrical & Electronics-5.83%
KOSPI sectorMetals-6.06%
KOSPI sectorTransportation Equipment & Parts-8.68%
KRX themeK-AI Secondary Battery+5.55%
KRX themeSecondary Battery TOP 10+5.11%
KRX themeSemiconductor Top 15-3.39%
KRX themeK-AI Semiconductor TOP2+-4.52%
KRX themeShipbuilding TOP10-9.15%
KRX themeK-AI Defense TOP5+-12.04%

Calculated from Oct. 2 and Oct. 8 closing values for KRX sector and thematic indices. Sector returns are market-cap-weighted price-index moves, not money inflows. The KOSPI Medical & Precision Equipment index contains eight stocks.

Sources / Data Conventions

Index levels, breadth, investor flows, futures and program trading: finalized KRX regular-session figures. Reference date: Oct. 2 close.

Individual stock returns: Oct. 2 and Oct. 8 regular-session closes, including S-Oil (KRW 166,200 to KRW 168,700) and SK Innovation (KRW 154,000 to KRW 160,900). Sector/theme indices are from KRX.

Samsung Electronics Q3 preliminary results: Samsung Electronics Newsroom. LG Energy Solution consensus operating profit of KRW 339.3bn (Yonhap Infomax compilation): Yonhap News. Operating profit excluding production tax credits: Yonhap News

U.S. equities, Oct. 9 local close: TheStreet; Oct. 8 closes, constituent returns, oil prices and Axios reporting: sedaily.com; Oct. 9 SOX and semiconductor stock moves: seoul.co.kr. Background to the Oct. 8 chip selloff: Green Economic Daily

U.S. Treasury yields: U.S. Treasury Daily Rates. The 5.36% intraday high is from Kiwoom Securities; Michigan consumer sentiment and the Oct. 12 bond-market holiday are cited from TheStreet.

U.S. September CPI forecasts: CMC Markets Weekly Calendar (headline +3.6% year on year); Mitrade (LSEG consensus +3.7%). The Cleveland Fed estimates +0.53% month on month for headline and +0.20% for core (summary). U.S. bank earnings dates also follow CMC Markets.

Federal Reserve: September Meeting Minutes. September rate hike and October hike probability: Kiwoom Securities (Oct. 7-8 notes).

Oil, Iran and hurricane: Oct. 9 settlement prices, the Hormuz reopening proposal and Gulf of Mexico production outages: Yahoo Finance (Reuters). The same report covers plans to resume Chinese refined-product exports.

Discussion of OpenAI revenue figures and their differing measurement methods: TechCrunch (citing Axios Sept. 29 and FT reporting).

Iran's conditional seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal (Sept. 25): Euronews (citing AP). The 71.51% Gulf of Mexico production outage figure: U.S. Government Release (bsee.gov). Isaias landfall: CBS News. Aerospace stocks and top selling desks on Oct. 7: Special Times

Earnings calendar: TSMC IR · ASML IR. Year-ago working days for Oct. 1-10 exports: NoCut News (Oct. 13, 2025). BOK policy meeting dates: Bank of Korea Calendar

USD/KRW: Korean 3:30 p.m. weekly-session closes, 1,350.6 on Oct. 2 and 1,338.5 on Oct. 8 (NewsPim closing quotes).

Broker research: Daishin Securities (Quantin Exhibition Plan; semiconductor buyback analysis); Meritz Securities (investment strategy); Kiwoom Securities (macro, bonds and market strategy); Hana Securities (semiconductors, batteries, banks and quant); Hanwha Investment & Securities (EPS LIVE); Eugene Investment & Securities (investment strategy and refining); Yuanta Securities (banks).

Earlier reports: www.snowshagal.com