As the advantage in market breadth persists for more than two days, and provided that top Market Cap stocks do not experience further sharp declines, we are increasing our upside Model Weights. Breadth alone is insufficient. Since the KOSPI is a market-cap-weighted index, the index will retreat if the top two stocks by Market Cap fall significantly, regardless of the number of Advancing Stocks. Today’s index recovery was driven not only by the number of advancing stocks but also by gains in other Large-Cap Stocks such as Hanwha Aerospace, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung Biologics.
Reports regarding Chinese memory manufacturers are now permanently included in the verification criteria for large-cap semiconductors. The morning’s sharp decline was triggered by a factor not previously on our watchlist.
| Item | Consensus | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | 18.1 | 19.4 |
| Adjusted EPS (USD) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| Q3 Revenue Company Earnings Guidance | 20.0 | 21.6 |
| Full-Year Revenue Company Earnings Guidance | 77 | 81.5 |
Revenue YoY +93%. Raised full-year Company Earnings Guidance from $7.66bn to $8.15bn, an increase of approximately $0.50bn and shares rose by as much as +15%in after-hours trading (+7.7% to 15% depending on the time).
· President Trump announced the commencement of negotiations with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied that any such talks are underway. Oil prices continued their downward trend.· Joint U.S.-Japan Yen Buying InterventionDirect buying and selling in the foreign exchange market by governments and central banks to curb sharp currency fluctuations. This marks the first time the U.S. has participated in yen buying since 1998. Following official confirmation, USD/JPY strengthened to the 155 level (as of reporting). JPY/KRW Standard Market Exchange RateThe reference exchange rate announced daily, calculated as the weighted average of interbank transaction rates. The JPY/KRW basis for this reportis KRW 907.92(▼KRW 4.07)· Nikkei +0.32%· Shanghai +0.33%· Taiwan -0.06%· The Nikkei fell over 800 points intraday due to the stronger yen, but shifted to gains in the afternoon (as of reporting).
· CXMT’s next-generation mobile DRAM. LPDDR6A next-generation standard for mobile low-power DRAM; a product reportedly in the final stages of R&D validation.Reports of the validation nearing completion and preparations for mass production within the year coincided with news of a potential new Beijing plant (which, if realized, would reach 600,000 wafers per month,2xof current capacity).· Samsung Electronics opened in the+2% range before turning lower at 9:32 AM, sliding to the-3% range intraday. SK Hynix saw a similar decline.· The Close for Samsung Electronics recovered to KRW 240,000(+0.21%) and SK Hynix to KRW 1,577,000(+0.64%). Although the disclosed specifications are still one generation behind those of the two companies (based on reports), it was enough to revive memories of the July 28 plunge.
This report was the direct trigger for the morning decline, while concentrated selling of Samsung Electronics by institutional investors and profit-taking in semiconductors following the July 31 rally exacerbated the losses. However, both stocks closed in positive territory, and 152 out of 171 semiconductor-related stocks finished higher. While semiconductors stalled, bio, defense, and power equipment sectors led the index recovery. Sectoral strength and weakness follow in Sectoral Strength and Weakness.Foreign selling decreased significantly, but institutional investors focused their selling on Samsung Electronics. On the KOSDAQ, institutional investors were the largest net buyers.
Transaction amounts by entity and concentration by stock follow in Supply & Demand Structure.Yesterday, the market held firm even as the index collapsed; today, the market reversed the index. It was a day where the morning's decline and the afternoon's recovery were contained within a single session.
Aggregate totals are based on Naver Finance investor data, while individual stock data follows KRX Investor Flows. The breadth of individual stocks, rather than the index itself, defined the day.
The top bar represents Naver Finance investor data, while the bottom section on individual stock flows represents KRX stock-specific data as the standard. Due to differences in market scope, these figures were not aggregated or used to calculate weightings.
The hands behind the selling have shifted. While both Foreign Investors and Institutional Investors sold both semiconductor giants yesterday, today Foreign Investors +KRW 202.3bn bought Samsung Electronics, while SK Hynix was -KRW 635.5bn Sold. Net selling continued in other semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Hanmi Semiconductor. The largest selling pressure came from institutional net selling of Samsung Electronics -KRW 927.9bn. Based on the aggregate of net selling, the top single stock accounted for69% of total institutional selling. While the concentration of selling persisted, the primary entities and specific stocks involved shifted overnight.
All three investor groups maintained their directional bias, though volumes contracted sharply. Selling pressure shifts focus toward Institutional Investors' holdings in Samsung Electronics
Foreign and institutional investors shifted to net selling, while retail investors stepped in as buyers for the first time in four sessions.
Foreign investors net buyers for a second consecutive day on an unusually large scale. Record-breaking surge (+17.91%)
Foreign investors pivot to net purchases for the first time in four sessions. Institutional investors are net sellers for a fourth consecutive day, though the volume is at 2% of the previous day's level.
Retail investors turn net sellers for the first time; institutional investors record their largest buying volume in the current cycle. The baton has passed from retail to institutional investors.
5-day cumulative (07.29~08.04): Retail Investors -KRW 6.20tn / Foreign Investors +KRW 4.16tn / Institutional Investors +KRW 1.88tn.
The shift in cumulative foreign flows from -KRW 439.0bn to +KRW 4.16tn is not due to new buying, but rather the result of the -KRW 4.97tn from July 28 dropping out of the 5-day window. Looking only at the two sessions this week, foreign investors are net sellers of -KRW 3.19tn. (Source: Naver Finance, Investor Breakdown by Date)
※ A basis of -0.03, in terms of sign, is BackwardationA state where futures trade at a discount to the spot price. The inverse of the normal market structure (contango).However, given the 0.03-point spread, it is not interpreted as a directional signal. The remaining downside Investor Flows stems from the fifth consecutive day of Foreign Futures Futures Net Selling. Program TradingAutomated orders involving simultaneous buying and selling of multiple stocks. A key driver of significant movements in indices and investor flows.is a channel included in Investor Flows; therefore, it is not additive to Foreign Investors and Institutional Investors selling to calculate total net selling.
Today’s focal point is Samsung Electronics, where Institutional Investors -KRW 927.9bnsold69%(top 1 by net selling) and77%(top 5 by net selling), while Foreign Investors +KRW 202.3bnand Retail Investors +KRW 689.3bnabsorbed the selling. Conversely, for SK Hynix, Foreign Investors sold, while Retail and Institutional Investors absorbed the volume. Even within these two semiconductor stocks, trading directions diverged by investor category. The pattern of Retail Investors’ top net-selling stocks being concentrated in today's strong performers—such as NAVER, Alteogen, and defense stocks—persisted for the second consecutive day. (KRX Investor Trading Trends · Entire Stock Market · August 4, 2026)
Of the 79 industry sectors, 71 advanced, 6 declined, and 2 remained unchanged (flat). Among the top 10 gainers, 5 are in the biotech and healthcare space, interspersed with Aerospace & Defense (2nd) and Energy Equipment & Services (+9.38%, 4th), and Construction (+8.17%, 8th), followed by Electrical Equipment (+6.43%) and Machinery (+5.67%). On the decliners' side, excluding Life Insurance, the losses were within1%, making them hardly worth calling a decline. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment +0.62%rose, but ranked 63rd out of 79. The heavy weight of the two large-cap stocks dragged down the sector ranking. ※ Single-stock sectors (credit cards -0.85%, Stationery +7.10% , etc.) are excluded from the ranking descriptions.
| Category | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Glass Substrate | Theme | +5.34% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Components | Theme | +4.64% |
| Semiconductor Equipment | Theme | +4.57% |
| HBM | Theme | +4.13% |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Sector | +0.62% |
| SK Hynix | Ticker | +0.64% |
| Samsung Electronics | Ticker | +0.21% |
| S7 | Theme | -0.23% |
Of the 79 industry sectors, 63rdwhile out of 171 stocks 152 advanced. Among the 219 themes tracked by Naver Finance, the S7 theme—centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—was the sole decliner. Jusung Engineering +6.42%and Leeno Industrial +4.89% and other Materials, Parts, and Equipment Suppliers outperformed Large-Cap Stocks (as of reporting).
Morning catalysts originating from China capped the upside solely for the two mega-cap stocks. The rest of the value chain generally mirrored the rally in U.S. semiconductor equities.
| Name | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care Technology | Sector | +11.06% |
| Aerospace & Defense | Sector | +10.30% |
| Biotechnology | Sector | +9.64% |
| Life Science Tools | Sector | +9.35% |
| Medical AI | Theme | +9.17% |
| Aerospace and Defense | Theme | +9.09% |
| Immuno-oncology | Theme | +8.39% |
| Defense Industry | Theme | +5.87% |
| Ticker | Market | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| LigaChem Biosciences | KOSDAQ | +15.20% |
| ABL Bio | KOSDAQ | +13.24% |
| HLB | KOSDAQ | +11.17% |
| Alteogen | KOSDAQ | +9.29% |
| Hanwha Aerospace | KOSPI | +9.25% |
| LG Energy Solution | KOSPI | +3.96% |
| Samsung Biologics | KOSPI | +3.72% |
All top 10 stocks by Market Cap on the KOSDAQ posted gains. However, regarding Investor Flows, Retail Investors -KRW 258.7bn·Foreign Investors -KRW 277.1bnwere both on the selling side, while Institutional Investors +KRW 543.4bnacted as the sole buyers.(Continuity is not assessed due to a change in the data aggregation series from the previous day).
The buying momentum that exited large-cap semiconductors yesterday broadened today, rotating sequentially into bio, defense, and power equipment.
| Theme | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Optical Communication | Communication Infrastructure | +11.17% |
| Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) | Energy | +9.42% |
| Cables | Power & Utilities | +7.30% |
| Power Equipment | Power & Utilities | +6.43% |
Out of 219 themes 218advanced. This is closer to a broad-based rally than mere sector rotation.
| Market | Trading value | Compared to the 5-day average |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | KRW 27.88tn | 72% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW 5.83tn | 110% |
KOSPI trading value increased compared to the previous session (KRW 26.34tn). The baseline itself is high, as the 5-day average includes the record-breaking volume from July 31. On the KOSDAQ, a buy-side sidecar was triggered for three consecutive sessions; while this serves as a warning of rapid gains and high futures volatility, the assessment of whether the trend is overheating is determined separately by trading value, the spread of daily limit-up stocks, and the maintenance of gaps in the following session.
The breadth of the rally has widened significantly, yet the two stocks supporting the index remain only slightly higher (flat to positive). Whether this expansion continues ultimately depends on whether large-cap semiconductors move again.
Two things need to be verified: whether the China memory-related news that pressured the morning session was a one-day event, and whether the upward bias continues for a third consecutive day.
The 55:45 ratio is not a quantitative forecast probability, but the relative weight of upside and downside conditions confirmed at the 15:30 market close.
Upside ① The second day of advancers outperforming decliners (KOSPI86.1%, KOSDAQ87.2%), with large-cap stocks outside of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also rising. ② Foreign cash equities selling dropped to less than one-seventh of the previous day's level, with Samsung Electronics shifting to net buying. ③ U.S. market indicators, semiconductors, and interest rates are all favorable. Downside ① China memory-related news continues to cap the upside for large-cap semiconductors. ② Foreign investors' K200 futures net selling has reached a fifth consecutive session. ③ Institutional investors are heavily offloading Samsung Electronics. Neutral BasisFutures price minus spot index. Positive indicates contango; negative indicates backwardation. A spread of -0.03 is effectively zero and should not be interpreted as a directional signal.
Rationale for shifting the bias 10 points higher from yesterday’s 45:55: The combined selling pressure from Foreign Investors and Institutional Investors has significantly abated, and the stagnation in the SOX has cleared. Detailed rationale follows: Key takeaway of today’s session., conditions for the next trading session are provided in the table below.
Given the intraday volatility—with both a sharp morning drop and an afternoon recovery—the verdict should be based on the Close and the number of Advancing Stocks on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. QRAU.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Total borrowing amounts and maturity composition will drive long-term yields.ADP and ISM Services data will be released after the local market close, serving as variables for the August 6 session.
| Item | Consensus | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | 113 | 76.9 |
| Adjusted EPS (USD) | 1.61 | 0.48 |
| Data Center ($100mn) | 65 | 32.4 |
| Q3 Revenue Company Earnings Guidance | 125.3 | N/A |
Company Earnings Guidance for revenue was $11.2bn±$0.30bn. The key focus is not on the Q2 figures, but rather on Q3 Company Earnings Guidance and gross marginsAccording to reports, this is the prevailing view. The expected post-earnings volatility implied by the options market is ±12%.
| Item | Consensus | Previous quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | 68 | 46.9 |
| EPS (USD) | -0.23 | Unsecured |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($100mn) | 20 | 11 |
Since the June IPO First quarterly earningsThe range of EPS estimates is wide, spanning from -$1.26 to +$0.33, rendering the consensus difficult to use as a baseline. Key variables include Starlink subscribers (10.3 million as of late March) and the expiration of the lock-up period on August 6, which coincide.
WTI is at $81.25(-4.04%) continuing its downward trend in live trading. President Trump announced the initiation of negotiations with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied that any talks are underway, leaving the risk that oil prices could rebound if negotiations fall through.
Fell up to-2.83% intraday following reports on Chinese memory chips, but fully recovered in the afternoon. KOSDAQ buy-side circuit breaker triggered for the third consecutive day.
Sharp declines in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dragged down the index. Even amid this, more stocks advanced than declined.
Weekly cumulative (compounded, vs. July 31 Close): KOSPI -3.59% · KOSDAQ +8.47%· For two consecutive days, the character of the market was defined not by the index, but by the number of advancing stocks.
The recovery of the 1,000-point level itself is the milestone of the day. However, with a lower rate of gain than the KOSPI, large-cap stocks remain in the latter part.
Cleared all three resistance levels from 8/3 (742, 748, 757) in a single session. A point to be read in conjunction with volatility warnings (consecutive sidecar triggers and increased Trading Value).
Disclaimer: This material is for reference purposes only, intended for market structure analysis and data synthesis; it does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments.