2026.08.03 · DAILY MARKET REPORT
while the rest of the market went its own way.
A Split Market
One-Line Take Two heavyweight stocks dragged the index,while the rest of the market went its own way.
KOSPI6,257.45 ▼5.12%
KOSDAQ737.35 ▲2.44%
The question is not whether the index rises again. It is whether foreign investors return to large-cap semiconductors—and whether gains outside semiconductors can hold for another day.
45:55 is not a quantitative forecast probability; it is the relative weight of upside and downside conditions observed at the 15:30 close. Positive breadth still matters, but the joint foreign/institutional turn to selling and the stalled SOX carry more weight, so 5 points were shifted to the downside (What to Watch Next Session).
Upside case ① Even with the index down more than 5%, KOSPI had more advancers (458 vs. 419) and 68.0% of KOSDAQ names rose. Limit-down: 0 in both markets. ② July exports +62.8%· semiconductor exports +178.8%. The decline was not driven by deteriorating fundamentals. ③ Oil was falling sharply on renewed U.S.–Iran talks, easing cost pressure for airlines and consumers and improving the inflation backdrop. Downside case ① Foreign investors flipped to net selling in cash equities −KRW 2.822tnand K200 futures. The “third straight day of buying” condition set in the July 31 report disappeared in one session. ② Foreign investors’ five-session cumulative flow was also −KRW 439bn. Friday’s +KRW 7.24tn of buying still did not offset the prior four days of selling. ③ SOX +0.07%. U.S. semiconductors did not join the Nasdaq rally, while the U.S. 10-year rose to 4.745%. ④ The index closed near the intraday low, showing selling pressure persisted into the close. ⑤ Program trading −KRW 2.2847tn , turning net sell. Neutral variable BasisFutures price − spot index. Positive = contango; negative = backwardationwas -16.16before returning to +5.63, but because spot fell more rather than futures rising, the gap closure is not used as evidence for either upside or downside. Microstructure variables Tonight: U.S. ISM Manufacturing (prior 53.3), the U.S. Treasury borrowing estimate, Korea’s July CPI on 8/4, and the progress of U.S.–Iran talks.
Why 5 points moved from yesterday’s 50:50 to the downside: normalization in the basis and a close near the lows were consequences of the cash-market plunge, so they were too weak to count as upside evidence. Positive breadth remains, but the joint foreign/institutional turn to selling and the stalled SOX carry more weight.
WTI was trading at $80.42(-5.02%), down sharply on expectations for renewed U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks. Korea was pressured by large-cap semiconductors and foreign selling, but post-close overseas variables are moving in the direction of lower oil.
The first question next session is whether this favorable input can overcome selling pressure in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Before that come U.S. ISM Manufacturing at 23:00 KST and the U.S. Treasury borrowing estimate at 04:00 KST.
U.S. index direction alone is not enough to judge Korean semiconductors. Going forward, alongside the Nasdaq, SOX · U.S. long yields · foreign cash and futures flows · KOSPI breadth will be treated as one package for assessment.
Even with a 5% index move, there can still be more advancers than decliners. Next-session conditions must include not only index direction but also the number of KOSPI and KOSDAQ advancers.
· On 8/1, President Trump halted a planned strike on Iran and said talks would resume (conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz). On 8/2, OPEC+ agreed to raise September output by 188,000 bpd (sixth consecutive increase). WTI was at $80.42(-5.02%) as of 18:06 KST, sharply lower· Japan’s finance minister officially acknowledged joint yen-buying interventionDirect buying or selling in the FX market by a government or central bank to curb sharp currency moves. U.S. participation in yen buying was the first since 1998with the U.S. The JPY/KRW base exchange rateA weighted average of interbank FX transactions published daily. This report uses it as the JPY/KRW reference KRW 911.99 per ¥100(+KRW 19.96) · yen stronger· China’s July manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, signaling contraction for the first time since February. Nikkei -0.94%· Shanghai -0.59%; Tokyo-listed memory maker Kioxia was +6%(reported figure)
Foreign investors and institutions sold together, while retail absorbed most of the supply. It was the exact opposite of Friday.
On Friday, large caps and breadth rose together. Today, the index and individual stocks, memory and AI components, and foreign and domestic capital all moved in different directions.
Aggregate flows use Naver Finance investor data; stock-level flows use KRX data. The index failed to recover, but stock selection was visible beneath the surface.
The bars above use Naver Finance investor aggregates; the stock-level data below use KRX stock-level investor data . Because the market scopes differ, they are not summed or used to calculate shares.
Friday’s record buying did not amount to fresh inflow when viewed across five sessions. Foreign investors bought KRW 7.2414tn on July 31 alone, but sold more than that over the other four sessions. Five-session cumulative flow: −KRW 439bn, effectively bringing the prior selling back close to flat. Including futures makes the direction clearer: foreign investors’ five-session K200 futures flow was −KRW 1.31tn, with cash and futures both net sold.
Foreign investors and institutions both turned net sellers. Retail returned as the absorbing buyer after four sessions.
Foreign buying extended to a second day and was unusually large. Record index gain (+17.91%)
Foreigners turned net buyers for the first time in four sessions. Institutions bought for a fourth day, but at only about 2% of the prior day’s size
Retail turned net sellers for the first time; institutions posted their largest buying in this phase. The absorbing hand shifted from retail to institutions
Peak foreign selling. Retail absorbed KRW 4.33tn, but the index still fell by double digits
Five-session cumulative: Retail −KRW 2.69tn / Foreign −KRW 439bn / Institutions +KRW 3.04tn.
Friday’s +KRW 7.24tn turns into a five-session cumulative −KRW 439bn. Institutions were the only consistent buyers over this stretch—and even they sold today. (Naver Finance investor aggregates · daily)
※ The return of the basis to +5.63 is not treated as a futures-buying signal. Futures did not rise; spot fell further.(spot -5.74%· futures -3.72%). Foreign investors have net sold futures for four straight sessions. Program tradingAutomated orders that buy or sell baskets of stocks at once—a major channel for index and flow movesis already embedded in investor flow data, so it is not added to foreign/institutional selling to create a “total selling” figure.
In SK hynix, foreign investors −KRW 1.7685tnand retail +KRW 2.1745tnmet head-on. Foreign investors’ top net buy was Hyundai Motor at just +KRW 35.6bn, so selling was concentrated in the two chip leaders while buying was fragmented across names. By combined net-sell value, the top stock accounted for 48% of foreign selling and the top five for 80%. Retail’s largest net sells—Hyundai Mobis, PharmaResearch and Hyosung Heavy Industries—were among today’s gainers, another mirror image of Friday. (KRX investor trading data · entire stock market · 2026.08.03)
Of 79 sectors, 42 rose and 37 fell. On the upside were biotechnology and healthcare (three groups among the top six), communications equipment and handsets(+3.15%) and machinery(+2.84%) within the AI-components cluster. Airlines also rose +3.30%on the oil plunge. The laggards were semiconductors and oil/market-sensitive groups (oil & gas, gas utilities, securities -3.16%). ※ Single-stock sectors (multi-utilities -5.37%· office electronics -3.16% , etc.) are excluded from the ranking discussion.
· The sector index was -7.99%, but among 171 stocks 99 advanced versus 62 decliners. Samsung Electronics -8.76%· SK hynix -8.79% were the two names dragging the index lower· The theme view showed the same split. Leading semiconductor producers -6.73%·S7 -5.19%ranked near the bottom, while glass substrates +4.91%· semiconductor substrates +3.57%·MLCC +2.48%rose· Samsung Electro-Mechanics +3.42%. Price leadership rotated away from large-cap memory into other layers of AI infrastructureWithin AI, large-cap memory diverged from substrates, MLCCs and power equipment; across the broader market, buying spread into biotech, robotics and airlines.
· Oil was falling sharply on renewed U.S.–Iran talks. Airlines sector +3.30%, Airlines & LCC theme +5.37%(all 9 stocks advanced)· On the other side, Oil & Gas -4.72%· Gas Utilities -3.90%, Refining theme -3.87%·LPG -5.46%· Shinhan Securities also summarized intraday action around two axes: “airlines up vs. refiners down” and “large-cap semis down vs. AI components holding up” (reported)The same news produced opposite price reactions across sectors.
· KOSDAQ +2.44%, with 1,181 advancers. Themes: Robotics +6.19%· Physical AI & Humanoids +4.90%· Medical AI +4.13%; biotech and robotics led, including Peptron at limit-up (reported)· Foreign investors nevertheless sold −KRW 209.2bnin KOSDAQ as well. Institutions absorbed +KRW 166.9bnand retail· So today’s rotation should not be read as foreign money moving from KOSPI to KOSDAQ. It was closer to domestic institutions and short-term capital choosing growth stocks outside large-cap memory.172 of 219 themes rose. The rotation was broad.
AI demand was not disproved. But the condition that foreign investors would keep buying Korea’s large-cap semiconductors failed in a single session.
Even with a 5% index move, there can still be more advancers than decliners. Next-session assessment will pair index direction with the number of KOSPI and KOSDAQ advancers.
For KOSDAQ, watch whether institutional +KRW 166.9bn buying continues and foreign −KRW 209.2bn selling expands.
Disclaimer: This material is for reference in analyzing market structure and organizing decision inputs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.