The week's gain came from the first trading day,and the next four sessions gave some of that day back
Period: Sep. 7–Sep. 11 · U.S. market through the Sep. 11 local close · The next issue will revisit the three questions below
The clearest cluster among the week's top gainers · much of the evidence is still at the media-report stage
Weekly outperformance held · pushed back on Friday
Stayed near the top on both days rates rose
Of 39 KRX themes, weekly gainers rose from 2 to 27
With hike odds in the 86% range, watch the dot plot and the 2027 path
Rates are the common variable for whether this week's returning groups can hold
Policy-linked groups that fell last week moved to the top this week · Price, flows and market breadthwhat changed
Above are this week's top gainers and benchmark indices · construction, machinery and power infrastructure reversed from last week's biggest decliners · below, biotech and pharmaceuticals remained near the bottom for a second straight week · index, industry and theme indices are different series and should not be ranked together
The overseas interval actually transmitted into Korea's five sessions ran from the Sep. 4 U.S. close through the Sep. 10 close · over that span, WTI rose from $91.48 to $102.48 · U.S. 10Y 4.784% → 4.944% · day one absorbed the overseas price signal all at once · the middle two sessions were capped by policy catalysts · in the last two sessions these two prices were the common backdrop · expiry and index-rebalancing flows also overlapped at the Sep. 10 close
Over the same span, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.03%fell, while Korea's KRX Semiconductor Top 15 +5.63% · Korea absorbed only the Sep. 4 one-day U.S. move, after which the two indices diverged · USD/KRW fell to KRW 1,336.4on Sep. 9, then rebounded to KRW 1,345.9 on Friday
A repricing concentrated in the first session · the return of beaten-down policy groups · $100 oil and higher U.S. long yields
U.S. three major indices down · SOX +3.37%
Korea absorbed the signal alone
+4.61% · close was the day's high
combined net purchases +KRW 5.202tn
contracted from 60.4% to 52.5%
-1.22% · gave back part of day one
DS Investment & Securities sees a phase that is pricing in 2027 earnings after the August correctionand recommends adding to large-cap memory names on September pullbacks, with a stronger rally after mid-October · Hana Securities' quant work, based on 17 episodes since 2010, says conditions for a leadership market are not yet metand leans toward rotation and trading · two different frameworks published in the same week
| Group | Last week | This Week | Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction · KOSPI | -7.08% | +11.03% | Sectors |
| Machinery & Equipment · KOSPI | -4.62% | +7.87% | Sectors |
| AI Power Infrastructure | -7.91% | +7.60% | Themes |
| K-AI Defense TOP5+ | -7.62% | +2.01% | Themes |
| Electricity & Gas · KOSPI | -1.86% | +3.22% | Sectors |
| Below: groups that stayed near the bottom for two straight weeks | |||
| Pharmaceuticals · KOSDAQ | -7.27% | -4.38% | Sectors |
| Technology-Transfer Biotech | -7.44% | -4.46% | Themes |
| K-AI Biotech KOSDAQ | -9.11% | -4.91% | Themes |
The five above moved from negative last week to this week's upper ranks · the three below remained near the bottom for a second week · among the ten names formed by taking last week's top five industry and theme decliners, four turned positive this week; of the six that remained negative, three were biotech/pharma · industry and theme indices are different series and are not ranked together · each week's base is the prior trading day's close
Yuanta also cautions that more domestic volume does not automatically mean better margins · earnings depend on whether domestic orders displace high-margin North American capacity or fill new capacity · Hana Securities names GS E&C as its top data-center beneficiary and DL E&C as second choice · same catalyst, different stages
iM Securities highlights renewed correction risk if WTI moves above $100 and the U.S. 10Y above 5%and expects President Trump not to act as an oil-price stabilizer for the time being · on the other side, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Sep. 7 that talks with Oman on a temporary safe passage through Hormuz were in the final stage· two different paths hang over the same oil price, so they should not be read as one
Q1 starts scoring at 03:00 on Sep. 17 · Q2 on the day the announcement arrives · Q3 throughout the week · each question includes confirmation signals and caution conditions
September hike odds were already in the 86% range on Sep. 11 night, yet U.S. equities rebounded after five down sessions · “already priced” and “not fully priced” readings emerged from the same price on the same day · what gets scored is not whether the Fed hikes, but the economic projections and the 2027 path · in Korea, the 3Y KTB yield had already reached 4.027%, the highest since Nov. 2023 · Score on the Sep. 17 close, the first Korean session after the decision · met if KOSPI closes higher and the 3Y KTB yield falls below 4.0% · partially met if only one occurs · not met if KOSPI falls and the 3Y yield stays at or above 4.0%
Construction, machinery/equipment and power infrastructure formed the clearest cluster among this week's top gainers · but much of the evidence remains at the media-report stage, and a formal U.S.-investment announcement is expected around Sep. 18· the announcement is where numbers can be confirmed, but also where the catalyst may be exhausted, so direction is not predetermined · The primary score is whether KOSPI Construction outperforms KOSPI for the week; daily outperformance counts are only path context
Only two of five sessions stayed above 50%, and the last three narrowed consecutively · the index gained +3.33%for the week, but the market's internals moved the other way · last issue's Q3 — “the day offsetting buying shrinks” — produced no sample because the residual stayed above KRW 1tn on all five days, so it is rolled into this question · Met if the share of advancers exceeds 50% for two straight sessions · partially met if it happens for only one day
Only No. 1 power/construction gets the full branch map · the other three are kept to why now · what to watch · caution three lines
The first branch to watch is the national power grid
where the amount has been confirmed in planning documents
12th Basic Plan · 2040 at 158.4–165.0GW
11th transmission/substation plan KRW 72.8tn · KEPCO five-year plan KRW 55.3tn
Grid connections and internal facilities first · power equipment and cables
AI data-center target: 8.4GW by 2029
Rate base → depreciation & return on investment → reflected in tariffs
Recovery framework from Yuanta Securities' 96-page report · capex does not become earnings immediately; it returns as cash flow only after tariff recognition · even under the same infrastructure expansion, power-equipment makers record orders first while regulated utilities recognize the economics later
In a week mixing media-reported catalysts with documented ones,
this is where the amount was confirmed in a plan.
| Item | Source · Date | Amount | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| KEPCO transmission investment | Mid/long-term financial management plan · Sep. 9 | KRW 32.9576tn | Plan disclosed |
| KEPCO distribution investment | Mid/long-term financial management plan · Sep. 9 | KRW 22.3661tn | Plan disclosed |
| 11th Long-Term Transmission & Substation Plan | 2024–2038 | KRW 72.8tn | Confirmed |
| 2027 MOLIT budget | Government proposal · before National Assembly review | KRW 69tn | Government proposal |
| Encinal, Texas combined-cycle gas plant | First U.S.-investment project · media report | $22.3bn | Reported |
| KEPCO five-year transmission/distribution total | KRW 55.3237tn | a five-year total | |
The five-year total does not mean individual orders or allocation by company · the 12th Basic Plan figures are preliminary, and the KRW 72.8tn investment in the 11th transmission/substation plan does not yet reflect the higher demand assumed in the 12th · U.S.-investment project cost, timing and final composition are all unconfirmed media-report figures
KRX Semiconductor Top 15 weekly +5.63% · K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+ +4.00% · AI Semiconductors +3.11%all stayed above KOSPI (+3.33%) · over the same interval the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.03%moved the other way · Korea Customs Service data show Sep. 1–10 semiconductor exports at $16.5bn(+270.1% YoY)
Whether Semiconductor Top 15 again outperforms KOSPI after the Sep. 17 Fed decision · Micron earnings in late September and more concrete HBM4 contract details · Hanwha Investment & Securities highlights simultaneous demand across HBM, server DRAM and enterprise SSD as agent adoption spreads · multi-agent systems use roughly 15x as many tokens as chat
On Sep. 11 alone Semiconductor Top 15 -3.95%fell, with all 15 constituents down · weekly outperformance thinned in one day · all four names whose weights increased in the KRX sector-index rebalance fell on the effective date (Hanmi Semiconductor -8.70%) · semiconductor-tariff products and rates remain unconfirmed
No semiconductor target prices confirmed in this week's materials · see last issue for stock/target-price table · not Snowshagal views
Weekly KOSPI Insurance +2.52% · Financials +1.91% · KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10 +2.48% · even on Sep. 11, the biggest rate-up day, Insurance +1.56%stayed near the top · 3Y KTB yield 4.027%at the highest since Nov. 2023
Watch the shape of the KTB curve after the Sep. 17 Fed decision · and whether Kiwoom Securities' Sep. 9 framework of higher ROE → higher PBR continues · in Hanwha's consensus compilation, Hana Financial Group ranked among emerging-market stocks with the largest upward 12-month forward EPS revisions
Higher rates do not automatically mean better bank earnings · Hanwha's Sep. 10 report noted a deterioration in the funding mixin August deposits and loans · as with Insurance +4.44% on Sep. 3 reversing to -3.46% the next day, the same group can give back first when the rate regime shifts
No financial/insurance target prices confirmed in this week's materials · see last issue for stock/target-price table · not Snowshagal views
This Week The largest decline among 46 industries was KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals -4.38% · The largest decline among 39 themes was KRX Bio TOP 10 -5.19% · K-AI Biotech KOSDAQ -4.91% · Technology-Transfer Biotech -4.46% · for a second straight week the same groups stayed near the bottom · they remained among the decliners even in a week when 27 of 39 themes rose
Watch whether KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals begins outperforming KOSDAQ · whether Alteogen recovers the decline since its Sep. 2 Novartis deal · conversion of Samsung Biologics' H2 awards into definitive contracts and the start of Fab 6 construction
Do not read two straight weeks near the bottom as a confirmed bottom · this week's gains were concentrated in policy/infrastructure groups, so it may simply be about rotation order · as last week, this group is not well explained by oil or rates · no biotech target prices confirmed in this week's materials
One flow exchange created by index rules · one catalyst still awaiting announcement · one buyer that stayed roughly the same size all five days
Next week's calendar · the three questions on the right will be revisited unchanged in the next issue
Alongside the Sep. 11 U.S. equity rebound and pullback in oil, Korea also absorbs the preventive shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and the Houthi move onto Perim Island · no major U.S. data
Meeting runs Sep. 15–16 local time · Empire Manufacturing at 08:30 local time
Released at 08:30 local time · final consumption indicator before the rate decision
Decision at 14:00 Sep. 16 local time · hike odds in the 86% range · CME FedWatch as of Sep. 11 night · also at 21:30 KST: weekly initial jobless claims, August housing starts and September Philadelphia Fed index
BOJ meeting runs Sep. 17–18 · index futures, index options and single-stock options expire the same day · formal U.S.-investment announcement also reported for around this date
Closed Thursday and Friday · U.S. markets operate normally during the same period
Score on the Sep. 17 close, the first Korean session after the decision · met if KOSPI rises and the 3Y KTB yield falls below 4.0% · partial if only one occurs · not met if KOSPI falls and the 3Y stays at or above 4.0% · a U.S. 10Y close above 5% and the economic projections are supporting evidence
Met if KOSPI Construction outperforms KOSPI for the week · the U.S.-investment announcement is supporting evidence explaining why
Met if it exceeds 50% for two straight sessions · partial if only one day · last issue's Q3, “the day offsetting buying shrinks,” is rolled into this question
The first day lifted the index ·
the next four narrowed the breadth beneath it first.
| Indices | Base | Sep. 11 close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,687.21 | 6,909.91 | +3.33% |
| KOSPI 200 | 1,051.52 | 1,090.22 | +3.68% |
| KOSDAQ | 813.50 | 820.64 | +0.88% |
Base is the prior trading day, Sep. 4 close · the Sep. 7 one-day gain of +308.18 points exceeded the weekly net change of +222.70 points
| Date | KOSPI | Change | KOSDAQ | Change | Share of advancers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | 6,995.39 | +4.61% | 822.19 | +1.07% | 52.5% |
| 09/08 | 6,954.52 | -0.58% | 811.88 | -1.25% | 25.4% |
| 09/09 | 7,051.64 | +1.40% | 830.37 | +2.28% | 50.7% |
| 09/10 | 7,033.92 | -0.25% | 836.92 | +0.79% | 46.0% |
| 09/11 | 6,909.91 | -1.76% | 820.64 | -1.95% | 40.3% |
Share of advancers is for KOSPI · numerator = advancers + upper-limit names · denominator = all stocks including unchanged
| Top 20 gainers | Weekly | All 20 decliners | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction · KOSPI | +11.03% | Pharmaceuticals · KOSDAQ | -4.38% |
| Machinery & Equipment · KOSPI | +7.87% | IT Services · KOSPI | -3.84% |
| General Services · KOSPI | +6.68% | Food, Beverage & Tobacco · KOSPI | -3.31% |
| Metals · KOSDAQ | +5.80% | Pharmaceuticals · KOSPI | -3.09% |
| Electrical & Electronics · KOSPI | +4.85% | Textiles & Apparel · KOSDAQ | -2.73% |
| Electrical & Electronics · KOSDAQ | +4.34% | General Services · KOSDAQ | -2.70% |
| Manufacturing · KOSPI | +3.88% | Paper & Wood · KOSPI | -1.83% |
| Transportation Equipment & Parts · KOSDAQ | +3.61% | Entertainment & Culture · KOSPI | -1.83% |
| Electricity & Gas · KOSPI | +3.22% | Telecommunications · KOSPI | -1.70% |
| Insurance · KOSPI | +2.52% | Transportation & Warehousing · KOSDAQ | -1.26% |
| Machinery & Equipment · KOSDAQ | +2.44% | Textiles & Apparel · KOSPI | -1.18% |
| Construction · KOSDAQ | +2.36% | Transportation & Warehousing · KOSPI | -0.92% |
| Entertainment & Culture · KOSDAQ | +1.96% | Non-Metals · KOSPI | -0.92% |
| Financials · KOSPI | +1.91% | Chemicals · KOSPI | -0.91% |
| Non-Metals · KOSDAQ | +1.75% | Food, Beverage & Tobacco · KOSDAQ | -0.90% |
| Manufacturing · KOSDAQ | +1.52% | Securities · KOSPI | -0.82% |
| Transportation Equipment & Parts · KOSPI | +1.42% | Chemicals · KOSDAQ | -0.69% |
| Financials · KOSDAQ | +1.25% | Paper & Wood · KOSDAQ | -0.46% |
| Medical & Precision Equipment · KOSDAQ | +0.88% | Metals · KOSPI | -0.34% |
| Telecommunications · KOSDAQ | +0.85% | Other Manufacturing · KOSDAQ | -0.31% |
Of 46 industries, 26 rose and 20 fell for the week · left: top 20 gainers; right: all 20 decliners · the remaining six gainers (IT Services, Medical & Precision Equipment, Distribution, Publishing & Media Reproduction, Real Estate) were all below +0.7% and are omitted · calculated from Sep. 4 close to Sep. 11 close · industry returns are market-cap-weighted indices, not sector net-inflow amounts
| Top 12 gainers | Weekly | All 12 decliners | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| KRX-Akros AI Power Infrastructure | +7.60% | KRX Bio TOP 10 | -5.19% |
| KRX Semiconductor Top 15 | +5.63% | K-AI Biotech KOSDAQ | -4.91% |
| KRX ESG Social Responsibility Index | +4.34% | KRX Technology-Transfer Biotech | -4.46% |
| KRX Blue Chip 25 | +4.25% | KRX Game TOP 10 | -4.04% |
| K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+ | +4.00% | KRX BBIG | -2.74% |
| KRX Shipbuilding TOP10 | +3.62% | KRX Internet TOP 10 | -2.20% |
| KOSPI 200 Climate Change | +3.54% | KOSDAQ TOP 15 | -2.11% |
| KOSPI 200 ESG | +3.47% | Korea Sovereign AI | -1.88% |
| KOSDAQ 150 Governance | +3.22% | KOSDAQ TOP 10 | -1.77% |
| KRX AI Semiconductors | +3.11% | KOSPI Preferred Shares | -0.63% |
| KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10 | +2.48% | KRX Real Estate REITs & Infrastructure | -0.09% |
| K-AI Defense TOP5+ | +2.01% | KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10 | -0.06% |
Of 39 themes, 27 rose and 12 fell for the week · last week: 2 up, 37 down · left: top 12 gainers; right: all 12 decliners · the remaining 15 gainers were all below +2.0% · theme indices are a different series from industry indices and should not be mixed into the same ranking
| Category | 9/7 | 9/8 | 9/9 | 9/10 | 9/11 | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | +KRW 2.552tn | +KRW 632.0bn | -KRW 435.0bn | -KRW 2.482tn | -KRW 2.304tn | -KRW 2.171tn |
| Institutions | +KRW 2.650tn | +KRW 643.0bn | +KRW 942.0bn | +KRW 433.4bn | -KRW 1.2235tn | +KRW 3.591tn |
| Retail | -KRW 6.837tn | -KRW 3.033tn | -KRW 2.288tn | +KRW 380.1bn | +KRW 1.8658tn | -KRW 9.910tn |
| Residual outside the three groups | +KRW 1.635tn | +KRW 1.758tn | +KRW 1.781tn | +KRW 1.6685tn | +KRW 1.6617tn | Not calculated |
KRX closing investor-trading data · KOSPI cash market · weekly column uses the KRX confirmed five-session cumulative figures; simple sums of confirmed daily values differ by roughly KRW 140bn each for foreigners and institutions, so values are not added within the same column · retail's difference between the displayed daily sum and the confirmed weekly figure is KRW 2.1bn, effectively the same
“Residual outside the three groups” is back-solved by subtracting retail, foreign and institutional totals from the investor total · on Sep. 10 and 11, direct Other-corporation tallies of +KRW 1.667tn and +KRW 1.6492tn were separately confirmed · Other foreign and government/local-government accounts may also be included, so share-buyback amounts are not isolated
KOSPI turnover · Sep. 7 KRW 21.47tn · Sep. 8 25.96tn · Sep. 9 22.28tn · Sep. 10 28.19tn · Sep. 11 19.67tn · weekly total KRW 117.57tn, +19.4% vs. last week's KRW 98.44tn