Snowshagal Weekly · 2026.09.20 · The Index Is Back, the Tilt Remains
2026.09.20Korea Stock Market Weekly
Snowshagal Weekly

The Index Is Back,
the Tilt Remains

This Week in One Line

The market recovered in two days what it had lost in two,but the share of KOSPI advancers stayed below half on all five sessions

Previous Weekly · Daily · Market page — all on the website snowshagal.com
Korea · U.S. closes finalizedKorean market data through the Sep. 18 close · U.S. regular session data through the Sep. 18 local close · Weekly overseas comparisons use Sep. 10→17 local closes to align with Korea's comparison dates · Next Korean trading day: Sep. 21
00 Next Week's Focus

The index ended nearly flat ·
KOSPI breadth stayed below half

Review period: Sep. 14–18 · Korea trades only three days next week, Sep. 21–23 · The three questions below will be scored in next week's Weekly

This Week's Read
The index recovered in two days what it had lost in two ·
But what came back was the index,
not KOSPI's internal breadth
  • KOSPI weekly -0.23% · from 6,909.91 to 6,894.23 -15.68p · KOSDAQ +0.79%
  • The KOSPI share of advancers stayed below 50% on all five sessions · even the week's high was just 49.7% on Sep. 17 · only 15 of 46 KRX industry indices rose for the week
  • KOSDAQ reached 54.8% on Sep. 17 and 53.0% on Sep. 18, crossing above half first · KOSDAQ broadened, while KOSPI never did
  • Foreigners were net sellers of KOSPI stocks for seven straight sessions through Sep. 17 · then turned to +KRW 421.2bn on Sep. 18 · weekly total: -KRW 8.4073tn
  • USD/KRW moved from 1,345.9 at the 15:30 onshore close to 1,383.3 · unlike the index, this number did not return to where it started
  • The Sep. 18 U.S. session that Korea will absorb at the Sep. 21 open · Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.78% · U.S. 10Y at 5.002% · back above 5% · semiconductors and rates arrive pointing in opposite directions
  • Next week's question is not index direction, but whether this reversal continues through the three sessions before the holiday
  1. Semiconductors · Memory

    The axis that brought the index back · Sep. 21's first-20-days export data provides the next numerical check

  2. Defense · Shipbuilding

    Defense +6.08% for the week · Shipbuilding -3.78% · opposite directions within the same transportation-equipment complex

  3. Power equipment · Utilities · Construction

    Power infrastructure +6.20% · Electricity & Gas -6.49% · opposite ends of the same power theme

This Week's Market
A week when one axis carried the index

10 of 39 KRX themes rose for the week · down from 27 last week

Next Week's Pivot
Sep. 23 · last session before the holiday

Then four days off · Korea reopens Sep. 28 and absorbs three U.S. sessions at once

Holiday-period variable
Sep. 24 local time · U.S.–China summit

Washington · AI safety and trade reported on the agenda · Korea prices the outcome on Sep. 28

01 What This Week Left Behind

Two days down,
two days back

Only what this week left in price · flows · breadth · For the day-by-day path, see each Daily

Weekly performance · 2026.09.14~09.18KRX closing levels · vs. Sep. 11 close

Above: the week's leading gainers and benchmark indices · Below: the largest decliners · within the same power theme, AI Power Infrastructure and KOSPI Electricity & Gas ended at opposite extremes · index, industry-index and theme-index rankings are not mixed because they are different index families

01

The two biggest daily moves
were mostly set at the open

  • Sep. 14: -225.54p, of which 217.30p came at the open · Sep. 18: +178.82p, of which 170.29p came at the open
  • Sep. 15 close at 6,627.26 was the week's low · Sep. 16 +90.71p · Sep. 17 -2.56p · five-session total -15.68p
  • Weekly close-to-close moves · Samsung Electronics +0.58% · SK hynix +2.48% · Hyundai Motor -4.58% · KB Financial Group -1.69%
02

Last week's leaders
became this week's laggards

  • KOSPI Construction last week +11.03% → this week -4.86% · Machinery & Equipment +7.87% → -3.40%
  • Insurance +2.52% → -5.99% · Financials +1.91% → -3.45% · Electricity & Gas +3.22% → -6.49%
  • Of 24 KOSPI industries, only 4 rose for the week · Electrical & Electronics · Manufacturing · Medical & Precision Instruments · Textiles & Apparel
03

KOSPI breadth stayed below half ·
KOSDAQ broadened first

  • Across KOSPI's five sessions, zero days finished above half · down from two days last week · bars show KOSPI · dashed line marks 50%
  • Even as the index +2.66% rallied on Sep. 18, only 44.8% of KOSPI stocks advanced · breadth actually narrowed from 49.7% the previous session
  • KOSDAQ rose for four straight sessions · its share of advancers reached 54.8% on Sep. 17 and 53.0% on Sep. 18, above half for two straight days · KOSPI was 49.7% and 44.8% on those same two sessions
DATE
KOSPI
What Set the Price That Day
09.14
-3.26%
AI-development slowdown concerns spread over the weekend and oil rebounded · foreign net selling was heavily concentrated in SK hynix
09.15
-0.85%
U.S. 10Y at 5.02% in Asian afternoon trading · Brent back above $107 · shipbuilding, defense, financials and insurance at the bottom · only 27.8% of stocks advanced, the week's low
09.16
+1.37%
After four down sessions, semiconductor buying returned from the morning · 14:31 report of SK hynix–Intel talks on U.S. production · final session before the Fed decision
09.17
-0.04%
Fed raised rates 25bp · year-end dot plot at 4.1% · gains in shipbuilding and defense offset declines among the largest caps · 49.7% of stocks advanced, the week's high
09.18
+2.66%
U.S. semiconductors surged after Jensen Huang's outlook for next year's chip sales · foreigners turned net buyers after eight sessions · they bought SK hynix and sold Samsung Electronics
Last week's question · Was the rate hike already priced in?
Not met.
  • On the Sep. 17 scoring date, KOSPI -0.04% · 3-year KTB yield at 4.063%, still above 4.0%
  • U.S. 10Y also closed above 5% at 5.006%
  • The open, however, +0.91% meant the hike itself did not create an opening shock · the next session, the U.S. 10Y was 4.947% and KOSPI +2.66% changed direction
Last week's question · Did the policy-driven axis hold through the scheduled announcement?
Not met.
  • KOSPI Construction returned -4.86% for the week versus KOSPI at -0.23% · it beat KOSPI on only two of five sessions
  • The first U.S.-investment announcement, previously reported for Sep. 18, was postponed
  • Last week's Weekly condition — “last week's leaders become next week's largest decliners” — appeared exactly · the third turn in the same rotation
Last week's question · Did the KOSPI share of advancers recover above half?
Not met.
  • KOSPI stayed below 50% on all five sessions · the high was 49.7% on Sep. 17
  • The paired condition, “a day when buying from the opposite side fades,” again had no comparable sample · KRX-based Other corporations data were around KRW 1.6tn on both Sep. 15 and 16 · Sep. 17 used a different aggregation basis and was excluded
  • This question closes here and is recast as next week's Q2
Cross-checking the Outside Numbers
SOX · Sep. 17 local close11,599.49
U.S. 10Y · Sep. 17 local close4.947%
VIX · Sep. 17 local close15.44
Dollar Index · Sep. 18100.35
USD/KRW · Sep. 18 onshore close1,383.3

For overseas comparisons aligned with Korea's weekly return window, use Sep. 10→17 local closes · the U.S. sessions newly absorbed by Korea this week were Sep. 11–17 local time · the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index moved from 11,614.17 to 11,599.49, ending almost exactly where it began · in between, Sep. 14 local time: -5.86%, and Sep. 17: +3.14% · the U.S. 10Y likewise ended almost flat, from 4.944% to 4.947%, after reaching 5.041% intraday on Sep. 15 local time

The outside numbers traced the same weekly shape as the Korean index · the exception was USD/KRW, which did not return to its starting point · from 1,345.9 at the 15:30 onshore close to 1,383.3, up KRW 37.4

The Sep. 18 U.S. session after Korea's weekly close belongs to next Monday's open · Nasdaq +0.39% · Dow -0.19% · Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.78% · Micron +3.92% · SanDisk +10.99% · SK hynix ADR +2.46% · U.S. 10Y the same day 5.002% · back above 5% in a single day · a session that also coincided with quarterly quadruple witching

02 Three Variables for Next Week

Three sessions before the holiday
to collect the answers

Korea trades only three days, Sep. 21–23 · Chuseok holiday on Sep. 24–25 · Q1 and Q2 are scored at the Sep. 23 close · Q3 starts scoring when the announcement is released

Sep. 24–27 · MARKET CLOSED09.2109.2209.2309.28Q.01Foreign net buyingScore Sep. 23Q.02KOSPI breadthScore Sep. 23Q.03U.S.-investment announcementScore when announced · otherwise roll to next week
Solid lines mark questions with fixed scoring dates · dashed line marks the question that can be scored only once an announcement is released · shaded area is the Korean market holiday · U.S. markets remain open for three sessions, Sep. 23–25 local time
Q.01

Does foreign net buying
continue into the holiday?

  • Foreigners sold KOSPI stocks over the four sessions from Sep. 14–17: -KRW 8.8285tn · then on Sep. 18: +KRW 421.2bn · the first net-buying session in eight trading days
  • But that day they bought SK hynix and sold Samsung Electronics · selective buying, and small relative to the preceding selling
  • In Yuanta Securities' fund-flow data, Korea equity funds recorded -$1.06bn (-0.54%) over Sep. 3–9 · offshore-led outflows resumed · the firm cited a sustained decline in market yields as a prerequisite for better Korean flows
  • On the other side, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix share buybacks continue beyond the holiday · scheduled deadlines Nov. 21 and Nov. 19
  • Three trading days followed by a four-day closure also creates a window where pre-holiday de-risking demand can overlap (interpretation)

Scoring rule · the primary test is the sign of cumulative foreign KOSPI net buying over Sep. 21–23
Positive total = met · negative total but net buying on two days = partially met · negative total with net buying on one day or fewer = not met · zero total = partially met

Signs it continuesPositive three-day cumulative net buying · top net-buy names broaden beyond SK hynix · KOSPI 200 futures point the same way
Conditions for a one-day reversalNet selling returns to the KRW 1tn range from Sep. 21 · combined net selling in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix resumes
Separate variable to watchUSD/KRW above 1,390 · track separately rather than tying it causally to flows · Kiwoom Securities sees room for a rebound toward the low-1,400s by year-end
Q.02

Will KOSPI breadth
follow the semiconductor-led index?

  • The one axis that brought this week's index back was semiconductors · KOSPI Electrical & Electronics +1.46% · only 4 of 24 KOSPI industries rose for the week
  • The KOSPI share of advancers was above half on two days last week and zero days this week · KOSDAQ moved above half first on the final two sessions
  • Sep. 21 brings another semiconductor check in Korea Customs Service export data for Sep. 1–20 · the Sep. 1–10 figures are in 03 Semiconductors
  • Eugene Investment & Securities argues that when the U.S. 10Y yield at 5% exceeds the S&P 500 expected earnings yield, the market remains concentrated in a small number of large, high-quality stocks · the Sep. 18 local U.S. 10Y was back at 5.002%

Scoring rule · over Sep. 21–23, if the KOSPI share of advancers exceeds 50%
on two or more days = met · one day = partially met · zero days = not met

Signals breadth is wideningShare of KOSPI advancers above 50% on two days · at least 12 of 24 KOSPI industries rise on a day · an industry outside semiconductors enters the top gainers
Conditions for narrowing breadthThe index rises while fewer than 40% of stocks advance · only Electrical & Electronics and Manufacturing rise while the other industries fall
How to read the numbersUse the Korea Customs Service's reported number of working days for Sep. 1–20 · read total exports, daily average and semiconductor growth together · Chuseok holidays begin on Sep. 24, outside this window
Q.03

After the first U.S.-investment announcement,
does Construction relative strength return?

  • An extension of last week's Weekly Q2 · the announcement expected for Sep. 18 was postponed
  • After the National Assembly reporting schedule was delayed, terms including commercial rationality and profit-and-loss allocation are also being renegotiated · an announcement early next week has been discussed, but there is no finalized government timetable
  • The first project is still at the candidate stage · the $22.3bn Encinal combined-cycle gas power project in Texas has been mentioned, but the government says specific project details remain under negotiation
  • Late-stage issues reported include allocation of reactor types · Westinghouse equity participation · a request to remit roughly $10bn within the year
  • Meanwhile, KOSPI Construction was -4.86% for the week · price has already pulled back ahead of the material

Scoring rule · met if cumulative KOSPI Construction performance from the first session after the announcement through Sep. 23 exceeds KOSPI
We do not score causality between the announcement contents and price · if there is no announcement, or it comes after 15:30 on Sep. 23, roll the question into next week's Weekly

Signs relative strength is returningProject composition and amount confirmed in government documents · KOSPI Construction outperforms KOSPI on the announcement day · nuclear framework is explicitly included
Conditions for the catalyst to fadeAnother delay · smaller nuclear component · Construction falls on the announcement day and the document becomes a reason to sell
A separate item released the same daySep. 21 fourth-quarter fuel-cost adjustment rate · Hana Securities expects 5.0 won/kWh to be held unchanged · treat utilities as a separate variable from the U.S.-investment announcement
03 Sector Priority

What to Watch
Sectors to Watch First

Only the No. 1 semiconductor sector gets the full pathway · the other three are kept to Why now · what to watch · risk in three lines

Semiconductors · Memory · Back-end · the axis that brought the index back · numbers cluster before and after the holiday
First to watch
Defense · Shipbuilding · two axes that split within the same transportation-equipment complex
Where the split is
Power equipment · Utilities · Construction · opposite ends of the same power theme
Waiting for the document
Financials · Insurance · earnings expectations rose while prices fell
Needs confirmation
First to watch

Semiconductors · Memory · Back-end

What to watch first in this sector

First checkpoint: Sep. 21 · first-20-days export data
Do the numbers catch up with the catalyst that price moved on first?

This week's semiconductor moves were driven by remarks and reports · AI-investment slowdown concerns on Sep. 14 and Jensen Huang's sales outlook on Sep. 18 · both were words, not data · exports arrive before the holiday and Micron earnings after it
Why now WHY NOW
  • With KOSPI at -0.23% for the week, the KRX Semiconductor Top 15 was +2.01% and KOSPI Electrical & Electronics +1.46% · this was the axis that brought the index back to roughly flat
  • But direction flipped twice within the week · KRX Semiconductor Top 15 on Sep. 14 -4.05% · Sep. 16 +3.66% · then on Sep. 18: +3.25%
  • On Sep. 18, foreigners ranked SK hynix as their No. 1 net buy · Samsung Electronics was their No. 1 net sell the same day · even within semiconductors, selective buying,
  • Semiconductor exports for Sep. 1–10 were $16.5bn · 47.1% of total exports · +270.1% year over year (reported from Korea Customs Service release)
  • Hana Securities calculates the same period's working-day average at $1.30bn of memory exports · +206% · DRAM +419% · with memory-price gains exceeding the firm's own assumptions, watch the prices themselves rather than company earnings forecasts
The order in which the numbers arrive MONEY PATH
01
Big Tech capex

U.S. data-center construction spending +57.2% annualized in July

02
AI-chip sales

Nvidia: “next year's unit sales will be twice this year's”

03
Memory-generation transition

HBM4 interface: 2,048-bit · twice HBM3E

04
Back-end capacity expansion

TSMC raised the top end of this year's capex to $64bn

05
Korean exports · Earnings

Sep. 21 first-20-days exports · Oct. 1 Micron

Figures from Kyobo Securities (data-center construction spending) and Hanwha Investment & Securities (back-end) · the first two stages are already priced-in catalysts; the latter two are where data arrives next week and after the holiday

+270.1%Sep. 1–10 semiconductor exports · year-over-year · reported from Korea Customs Service release

After a week moved by words ·
the numbers arrive first.

Brokerage Views WHAT THE STREET SAYS
  • Hanwha Investment & Securities sees semiconductors Positive · in 2026–2028 as a period when memory and non-memory capacity expand at the same time, with investment spreading into the back end · ASE 2026 capex raised from $8.5bn to about $10.5bn · Micron Singapore HBM packaging roughly $7bn
  • Kyobo Securities estimates U.S. data-center construction spending at a July annualized rate of +57.2%, reaccelerating to +40.4% on a capacity basis after stripping out construction-cost inflation · it also notes that delays and cancellations of new projects are increasing
  • Kiwoom Securities argues the constraint on AI investment is supply, not interest rates · while the U.S. 10Y rose from 4.19% to 5.01% this year, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon all raised investment plans · Kiwoom calculates that even a 1pp increase in Meta's borrowing rate would add interest expense equal to only 0.6% of this year's investment plan
  • In Hanwha Investment & Securities' FX analysis, relative currency sensitivity versus the market during won-weakness periods is positive only for semiconductors (+0.26) · steel, petroleum products, ramen and cosmetics are negative · consistent with semiconductor relative strength in a week when USD/KRW rose by more than 37 won
  • Kiwoom Securities recommends maintaining or increasing exposure to semiconductors and IT hardware · Daishin Securities likewise lists IT hardware, semiconductors and power equipment as overweight sectors · within the same AI-power trend, Kiwoom views AI-server multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) as an oligopoly, with Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics holding 85%
Where views diverge

In Hanwha Investment & Securities' weekly earnings-estimate tally, the EPS revision rates within the emerging-market index put SK hynix and Samsung Electronics near the bottom · a week when earnings-estimate direction split between financials/defense and semiconductors · iM Securities flags the shift from an “AI technology No. 1” premium to a competitive landscape ahead of Anthropic's October listing as a headwind · prices up, estimates down

Next catalysts and failure conditions NEXT CATALYST
  • Sep. 21 Korea Customs Service Sep. 1–20 exports · semiconductor growth and daily-average exports
  • Sep. 23 Last session before the holiday · whether foreign net buying of SK hynix continues
  • Sep. 24 local time Washington U.S.–China summit · AI safety reported as a key agenda item · Jensen Huang and Sam Altman reported among attendees at the White House dinner · the same topic as the slowdown concern that hit semiconductors on Sep. 14:
  • Early morning Oct. 1 KST Micron fiscal Q4 earnings · released after the Sep. 30 local market close · reflected in Korea on Oct. 1
  • Failure conditions · first-20-days semiconductor growth falls sharply from the Sep. 1–10 pace and the Semiconductor Top 15 underperforms KOSPI the same day · AI slowdown concerns show up in hard data such as order delays

Outside semiconductors ·
even the winners rose mostly in a single day.

Where the split is

Defense · Shipbuilding

Why now

KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ for the week +6.08% · of that, Sep. 17 alone accounted for +5.75% · Hanwha Systems and UAE EDGE signed a framework for an integrated air-defense network Heads of Terms(amount and schedule undisclosed) · KRX Shipbuilding TOP10, which also rose that day, finished the week -3.78% · amid a warning of broader strike action at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries

What to watch

For defense, watch the timetable for the Heads of Terms to progress into a definitive contract · Yuanta Securities views the document as a signal that the $35bn Korea–UAE defense-cooperation agenda announced early in the year is restarting and says L-SAM, Cheongung-II and Chunmoo are specified · Eugene Investment & Securities points to reports of Abu Dhabi Executive Affairs Authority Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak visiting Korea in September and coordination for the UAE president's October state visit as the next step · the 2027 defense budget exceeds KRW 70tn for the first time at KRW 73.2tn (+8.2%) (DS Investment & Securities)

Shipbuilding

Whether HD Hyundai Heavy Industries keeps its goal of reaching a labor agreement before Chuseok · SK Securities calculates that the combined market cap of the three major shipbuilders fell 39.0%, from KRW 146tn in May to KRW 89tn on Sep. 16, while 12-month forward P/E reached its lowest since April 2023 · it cites data-center power-generation engines and naval vessels as conditions for re-rating

Caution

The defense rally was concentrated in a single day · Heads of Terms are not a contract · shipbuilding is a case where earnings rose while prices fell, so “oversold” alone is not used to time a rebound · the two axes are not bundled into one transportation-equipment call · Eugene's roughly KRW 26tn estimate of UAE project opportunity is its own estimate

Brokerage target prices from reports published this week · not Snowshagal views · Snowshagal does not create its own target prices
Hanwha AerospaceYuanta · Eugene Sep. 18 · maintained
KRW 1,480,000 · KRW 1,860,000
The Heads of Terms are understood to specify L-SAM, Cheongung-II and Chunmoo · assessed as having the broadest range of beneficiary products
LIG Defense & AerospaceYuanta · Eugene Sep. 18 · maintained
KRW 1,050,000 · KRW 1,200,000
Existing Cheongung-II supply relationship and localization preparation · replenishment demand for guided missiles
Hanwha SystemsYuanta · Eugene Sep. 18 · maintained
KRW 136,000 · KRW 140,000
Contracting party to the integrated air-defense network Heads of Terms · Cheongwang laser air-defense weapon
Waiting for the document

Power equipment · Utilities · Construction

Why now

KRX-Akros AI Power Infrastructure for the week +6.20% · up for a second straight week, though most of the gain came on Sep. 18 alone +6.45% · on the opposite side, KOSPI Electricity & Gas -6.49% · Construction -4.86% · the directions of equipment makers selling into the build-out, utilities supplying power, and builders diverged

What to watch

Sep. 21 fourth-quarter fuel-cost adjustment rate · Hana Securities expects the 5.0 won/kWh rate to be held unchanged even if the required adjustment rate turns positive, and maintains a KRW 45,000 target price on KEPCO · Q3 scores the first U.S.-investment announcement · for Construction, Hana maintains Overweight and cites at least 3GW of Korean data centers by 2030, a market of roughly KRW 30tn as the basis for raising GS E&C to KRW 46,000 and DL E&C to KRW 100,000

Caution

Power-equipment strength was also concentrated in one day · utilities still face winter procurement-cost pressure with November-delivery Asian LNG spot prices around $28/mmbtu · much of the construction thesis remains at the reported/planning stage

Needs confirmation

Financials · Insurance

Why now

KOSPI Insurance for the week -5.99% · Securities -4.26% · Financials -3.45% · sectors that stayed near the top on the two rising-rate days last week moved to the bottom this week · KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP10 also -2.45%

What to watch

Hana Securities does not treat higher rates as an unqualified positive for insurers · insurers' asset-liability duration gaps have shifted from negative to positive, so higher rates can pressure K-ICS solvency ratios · the firm's Overweight rationale is not rates but reform of the surrender-value reserve regime · earnings expectations moved the other way · in Hanwha Investment & Securities' tally, among the top weekly EPS upgrades in the emerging-market index, Shinhan Financial Group and KB Financial Group newly entered · Kiwoom Securities also recommends maintaining/increasing financials exposure · watch whether price moves back toward the estimates

Caution

There was no single common day-level catalyst confirmed for this week's financial-sector weakness · we do not attach causality to the 5% rate threshold or any one event · industry indices and individual large financial stocks also moved differently by day · Daishin Securities classified banks as relatively overvalued in the same week, diverging from Kiwoom's view

04 What Crosses the Holiday

Even while Korea is closed,
the numbers keep accumulating

The U.S.–China summit on the first holiday · U.S. sessions while Korea is closed · data clustered in the first week after the holiday · four central banks moving in the same direction

Sep. 20–24 · U.S.–China

U.S.–China summit on the first holiday · AI safety and trade

  • Sep. 24 local time summit in Washington · President Xi Jinping and spouse visiting the U.S. · reports say Big Tech CEOs including Jensen Huang and Sam Altman will attend the White House dinner
  • Reported as a core agenda item: AI safety · discussion of safety standards for U.S. closed models and Chinese open models · trade and rare earths are to be pre-coordinated on Sep. 20 by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng
  • Hana Securities argues that within the de-China battery-policy push, the shift away from Chinese cells and battery systems is difficult to reverse, while mineral inputs such as cathode materials, precursors, lithium and graphite could become negotiation items at this summit
  • Korea will price the summit outcome all at once when the market reopens Sep. 28 · the same theme as the slowdown concern that hit semiconductors on Sep. 14 has moved onto the summit agenda (interpretation)
Sep. 24–27 · Market Closed

Four-day closure · three U.S. sessions absorbed at once on Sep. 28

  • The Korean stock market is closed for Chuseok on Sep. 24–25 · including the weekend, four days · reopening Sep. 28
  • KRX will also suspend night trading in derivatives from 18:00 Sep. 23 to 06:00 Sep. 24 · because under normal operation, Sep. 23 night-session trades would be combined and cleared with the Sep. 28 regular session, leaving positions exposed during the holiday
  • U.S. markets remain open Sep. 23–25 local time · there are no top-tier releases such as CPI, payrolls or PCE, but data continue · Sep. 23 flash September PMI · Sep. 24 weekly jobless claims, August new-home sales and Q2 current account · Sep. 25 August durable-goods orders and final September University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • Because both of this week's large moves were concentrated at the open, the Sep. 28 open becomes the point that absorbs three days of overseas pricing at once(interpretation)
Sep. 30–Oct. 1 · Data

Two releases clustered in the first week after the holiday · U.S. August PCE and Micron

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis August personal income and outlays (PCE) and the third estimate of Q2 GDP are due Sep. 30 at 08:30 local time · 21:30 KST
  • Micron fiscal Q4 earnings are due after the Sep. 30 local market close · early morning Oct. 1 KST
  • Yuanta Securities says the condition for another December hike is monthly core PCE inflation · if the August estimate of 0.25–0.30% holds, another hike; two consecutive months at 0.2% or below would leave room for a hold
  • Daishin Securities cites fed-funds futures pricing of a 52% probability of another October hike and 90% for December · weekly initial jobless claims released Sep. 17 local time fell to 196,000, adding labor-market support to the hike case
Jul–Sep · Tightening

Four central banks moving the same way · the path after the Fed

  • The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on Sep. 16 local time · 12–0 · first hike since July 2023 · supply-shock language removed from the statement
  • Of 18 dot-plot participants, 12 put year-end at 4.125% and 4 at 4.375% · the median for end-2027 was also 4.1% · after the hike, the path is to keep rates high for longer.
  • ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.50% on Sep. 10 · BOJ raised 25bp to 1.25% on Sep. 18 · Bank of Korea reached 3.00% after back-to-back hikes in July and August
  • Brokerage views converge · Kiwoom, Yuanta, Kyobo, Hanwha and DS all lean toward another December hike · Kiwoom draws a line against calling this an aggressive consecutive-hike cycle · Daishin says fed-funds futures have lowered the implied terminal-rate path from 4.5–4.75% to an endpoint of 4.25–4.5% in H1 2027, so terminal-rate concerns have actually eased, in its view
  • Yuanta Securities expects two Fed hikes, in September and December, and until market yields turn lower sees KOSPI trying to hold the -30% line from the peak (6,400) and reclaim the -20% line (7,300) in a limited range-bound, stock-pickers' market · this week's 6,627–6,894 range sits inside that band
  • Oil still carries supply-side uncertainty · Kiwoom Securities notes the IEA has pushed the expected recovery in Gulf production to 2027 and expects crude inventories to keep falling through year-end
05 Dates to Watch

Monday through
Through the Post-Holiday Week

Next week's calendar · the three questions on the right will be scored as written in next week's Weekly

U.S.–China ministerial pre-coordination

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng · trade and rare earths · four days before the summit

Korea Customs Service Sep. 1–20 exports · Q4 fuel-cost adjustment rate

The open reflects the Sep. 18 U.S. session (semiconductors +2.78% · U.S. 10Y 5.002%) · check first-20-days semiconductor growth and daily-average exports · publication of the adjustment-rate calculation follows the Hana Securities schedule reference · an initial U.S.-investment announcement has been discussed for early this week, but there is no finalized government timetable

Normal Korean trading

Middle session of the three before the holiday · continue checking the sign of foreign net buying and the share of advancers

06:00 September Consumer Sentiment Index · last session before the holiday · 22:45 U.S. flash September PMI

Q1·Q2 scoring day · derivatives night trading suspended from 18:00 · PMI is released at 09:45 local time

Korean market closed · Washington U.S.–China summit (local time) · 21:30 U.S. weekly jobless claims and Q2 current account · 23:00 August new-home sales

AI safety and trade reported on the summit agenda · U.S. markets open normally

Korean market closed · 21:30 U.S. August durable-goods orders · 23:00 final September University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The Michigan release also includes inflation expectations · Korea absorbs the Sep. 23–25 U.S. sessions all at once on Sep. 28

Q1
Did foreign net buying continue into the holiday?

Primary test: sign of cumulative foreign KOSPI net buying over Sep. 21–23 · positive total = met · negative total but net buying on two days = partial · negative total with net buying on one day or fewer = not met · zero = partial

Q2
Did KOSPI breadth catch up with the index?

Share of KOSPI advancers above 50% on two or more of the three sessions = met · one session = partial · zero = not met

Q3
After the first U.S.-investment announcement, did Construction relative strength return?

Met if cumulative KOSPI Construction performance from the first session after the announcement through Sep. 23 exceeds KOSPI · if there is no announcement, or it comes after 15:30 on Sep. 23, roll to next week

This Week's Closing Line

The index came back to where it started ·
KOSPI breadth still remains below half.

Data

Data · Sources
Weekly Indices · Sep. 14–18
IndicesBaseSep. 18 closeWeekly
KOSPI6,909.916,894.23-0.23%
KOSDAQ820.64827.12+0.79%

Base levels are Sep. 11 closes, the previous trading day · KOSPI weekly net change -15.68 points

DateKOSPIChangeKOSDAQChangeShare of advancers
09/146,684.37-3.26%806.79-1.69%33.8%
09/156,627.26-0.85%812.41+0.70%27.8%
09/166,717.97+1.37%815.98+0.44%33.1%
09/176,715.41-0.04%822.18+0.76%49.7%
09/186,894.23+2.66%827.12+0.60%44.8%

The advancing-stock ratio shown is for KOSPI · numerator = advancing + limit-up stocks · denominator = all stocks including unchanged · KOSDAQ: 31.6% · 45.8% · 42.9% · 54.8% · 53.0%

Weekly industries · 46 KRX industry indices
All 15 gainersWeeklyTop 15 declinersWeekly
Transportation Equipment & Parts · KOSDAQ+5.25%Electricity & Gas · KOSPI-6.49%
Electrical & Electronics · KOSDAQ+4.05%Insurance · KOSPI-5.99%
Medical & Precision Instruments · KOSPI+3.28%Construction · KOSPI-4.86%
Chemicals · KOSDAQ+2.77%Securities · KOSPI-4.26%
Textiles & Apparel · KOSPI+2.55%Entertainment & Culture · KOSPI-3.73%
Machinery & Equipment · KOSDAQ+1.71%Transportation Equipment & Parts · KOSPI-3.56%
Non-Metals · KOSDAQ+1.61%Financials · KOSPI-3.45%
Manufacturing · KOSDAQ+1.57%Machinery & Equipment · KOSPI-3.40%
Electrical & Electronics · KOSPI+1.46%Distribution · KOSPI-3.15%
IT Services · KOSDAQ+1.38%IT Services · KOSPI-2.91%
Metals · KOSDAQ+1.15%Pharmaceuticals · KOSDAQ-2.79%
Construction · KOSDAQ+1.09%General Services · KOSDAQ-2.09%
Other Manufacturing · KOSDAQ+0.94%Medical & Precision Instruments · KOSDAQ-1.99%
Publishing & Media Reproduction · KOSDAQ+0.69%Paper & Wood · KOSPI-1.87%
Manufacturing · KOSPI+0.64%Financials · KOSDAQ-1.79%

Among 46 KRX industry indices (24 KOSPI · 22 KOSDAQ), 15 rose for the week and 31 fell · the remaining 16 decliners ranged from -1.79% to -0.10% · calculated from Sep. 11 close to Sep. 18 close · industry returns are market-cap-weighted index returns, not net inflow amounts by industry

Weekly themes · 39 official KRX theme indices
All 10 gainersWeeklyTop 10 declinersWeekly
KRX-Akros AI Power Infrastructure+6.20%Shipbuilding TOP10-3.78%
K-AI Defense TOP5++6.08%KRX-Akros High Dividend 20-3.08%
Samsung Electronics–SK hynix–U.S. Treasury Mixed Index+2.25%EV Top 15-2.89%
Semiconductor Top 15+2.01%Technology Transfer Bio-2.86%
Internet TOP 10+1.89%KOSDAQ TOP 15-2.78%
AI Semiconductors+1.79%KOSPI Dividend Growth 50-2.71%
K-AI Semiconductor TOP2++1.12%KOSDAQ 150 Governance-2.55%
300 Climate Change Index+0.10%K-AI Secondary Battery-2.50%
ESG Social Responsibility Index (S)+0.09%KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10-2.45%
KOSPI 200 Climate Change Index+0.06%Governance Leaders 100-2.35%

Of 39 themes, 10 rose for the week and 29 fell · the remaining 19 decliners ranged from -2.34% to -0.26% · calculated from Sep. 11 close to Sep. 18 close

Weekly Investor Flows · KOSPI Net Purchases
DateForeignersInstitutionsRetail
9/14-KRW 3.2996tn-KRW 1.1716tn+KRW 2.9723tn
9/15-KRW 1.5711tn-KRW 903.8bn+KRW 831.9bn
9/16-KRW 1.6808tn+KRW 1.2116tn-KRW 1.1863tn
9/17-KRW 2.2770tn+KRW 159.0bn+KRW 414.0bn
9/18+KRW 421.2bn+KRW 1.5054tn-KRW 3.5869tn
Weekly-KRW 8.4073tn+KRW 800.6bn-KRW 555.0bn

KRX KOSPI regular-session data · weekly figures are simple sums of daily values · Other corporations excluded from the table because aggregation bases differ by day · KRX-based Sep. 15 and 16 values were +KRW 1.6430tn and +KRW 1.6572tn; Sep. 17 was +KRW 1.6998tn on a cumulative basis including NXT

Sources · Data Basis

Weekly indices, industries and themes · KRX Index's 46 industry indices and 39 official theme indices · each Sep. 14–18 market close · base levels are Sep. 11 closes

KOSPI and KOSDAQ closes and market breadth · finalized KRX regular-session closes · individual-stock weekly returns use Sep. 11 and Sep. 18 regular-session closes

Investor flows · KRX KOSPI regular-session data · Sep. 14 uses regular-market closing reports · stock-level rankings use KRX investor-trading data queries

Overseas · Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, U.S. 10Y and VIX weekly comparisons use Sep. 10 and Sep. 17 local closes · the Sep. 18 U.S. session is listed separately as input for next week's open · Dollar Index is the Sep. 18 reading · USD/KRW uses the 15:30 onshore close cited in closing reports · Sep. 11: 1,345.9 · Sep. 18: 1,383.3

3-year KTB: 4.063% on Sep. 17 · cited from closing reports

Federal Reserve · September FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections · dot-plot distribution cited from Kiwoom Securities and Yuanta Securities · ECB, BOJ and Bank of Korea rates cited from Yuanta Securities and news reports

Exports · reports on Korea Customs Service Sep. 1–10 trade release · exports $35.0bn (+82.6%) · semiconductors $16.5bn (+270.1%, 47.1% share)

U.S. investment · postponement, candidate projects and negotiation issues from Financial News, Sep. 18 · Chuseok derivatives night-session suspension from Korea Economic Daily

Calendar · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule (Sep. 24 current account · Sep. 30 PCE and third estimate of GDP) · new-home sales, durable-goods orders and University of Michigan consumer sentiment from the respective agencies' calendars · Micron fiscal Q4 earnings date from company notice · Consumer Sentiment Index from Bank of Korea release calendar

Sep. 18 U.S. session · indices cited from NewsPim; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, individual semiconductor stocks and U.S. Treasury yields from international-finance market reports dated Sep. 19 · U.S. 10Y at 5.002% uses the same report

U.S.–China summit · Sep. 24 Washington summit, Sep. 20 pre-coordination, agenda items and dinner attendees from Hankook Ilbo, Sep. 17

Brokerage research · Hana Securities (memory prices · construction outlook · insurance-rule reform · de-China secondary-battery policy · utilities fuel-cost adjustment rate) · Hanwha Investment & Securities (semiconductor back-end · FX sensitivity · EPS LIVE #229) · Kiwoom Securities (AI investment and supply · MLCC · crude oil · September FOMC) · Yuanta Securities (UAE defense cooperation · September FOMC review) · Eugene Investment & Securities (Middle East defense orders · Treasury-market intervention and large caps) · Yuanta Securities (fund flows · revised Fed outlook and investment strategy) · DS Investment & Securities (defense budget · FOMC review) · Daishin Securities (FOMC and equities · jobless claims) · Kyobo Securities (data-center construction spending) · SK Securities (shipbuilding) · iM Securities (overseas-equity watchlist)

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