What to Watch Next Session
Next-session probability· Upside bias
55:45· Not a quantitative forecast probability· Relative weight based onlyon 8/25 domestic closing signalsThe 8/24 U.S. closing data already known before the 8/25 open and events with no result yet are excluded from this ratio
UpsideAdvancing-share ratio 71.3%· Widened for a third straight day· 60 advancing sectors· 195 advancing themesInstitutional cash equities +KRW 1.1708tn turned to buying· The two mega caps +KRW 378.1bn· the rest +KRW 808.7bnwere both net-buying bucketsThe largest stock by market cap stopped falling· Samsung Electronics flat· Short selling fell from KRW 1.0167tn · 8.8% to KRW 379.5bn · 4.9%Recovered 333.92p from low to close· KOSDAQ +1.70%· with the close also the day's highK200 futures, institutions +KRW 391.0bn turned to buying· Same direction as cash buying
DownsideForeign cash equities -KRW 3.8143tn· Selling continued for a third day and increased from -KRW 3.6764tn the previous dayProgram tradingAutomated orders across multiple stocks· Index · flow transmission path -KRW 2.6291tn· Non-arbitrage -KRW 2.7315tn· Third straight day of selling8/20 close 6,852.58 not reclaimed· The close was still 109.84p below it· The 8/18 close of 6,869.83 also remains overheadTurnover KRW 23.70tn· From 95% of the five-day average to 87%· The index rose, but turnover fell for a second straight dayAugust Consumer Sentiment Index 104.5· down 2.3p from 106.8 in July· The first indicator to reflect the stock-market correction in perceived conditions
Variables excluded from the probabilityResidual outside the three investor groups +KRW 1.5919tn· Not read directionally because it includes demand from treasury-share purchasesThe 8/25 U.S. regular session and the 23:00 U.S. August Consumer Confidence Index · July new-home sales· Results not yet available8/24 U.S. close (Nasdaq -0.76% · SOX -2.70% · 30Y ▼4bp · WTI $85.01)· Already known before the 8/25 open and therefore already reflected once in today's pricesK200 futures, foreigners -KRW 102.0bn· institutions +KRW 391.0bn· diverged from cash-equity directionCash · futures closing spread +2.92· Cash closes 15:30 / futures 15:45, so they are not the same-time price and are excluded as a directional signalHanwha spin-off relisting, first day· Excluded from directional evidence because price discovery is still underway8/27 05:20 Nvidia FY27 Q2· 8/27 Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board· 8/28 23:00 Jackson Hole keynote· 8/31 MSCI regular rebalance· Events with no result yet
Flow snapshotAt the close
Foreign cash equities-KRW 3.8143tnThird straight day of selling · larger amount
Institutional cash equities+KRW 1.1708tnTurned to buying after one day
SK Hynix-KRW 1.9982tnNo. 1 foreign net sell · concentration 45%
Residual outside the three investor groups+KRW 1.5919tnResidual calculation · includes treasury shares
KOSPI market breadth71.3%Previous day 64.2%
KOSDAQ market breadth68.8%Previous day 53.5%
Next checkpoints
FlowsWhether foreign selling extends to a fourth day· Whether institutional buying extends to a second day· Whether individuals continue to hold the two mega-cap positions they absorbed into the next session
BreadthWhether the advancing-share ratio holds· Whether the 150 advancing semiconductor stocks remain elevated· Whether KOSDAQ holds above 820 The key question in this phase is whether index direction and breadth continue to align
Price · catalystsWhether the 8/20 close of 6,852.58 is reclaimed· Whether today's low of 6,408.82 holds· Whether the largest stock by market cap moves above flat· 8/27 05:20 Nvidia earnings
Flows· Detailed market breadth
Flow structureKOSPI· Naver Finance investor-flow data
Individuals+KRW 1.0516tn
Foreigners-KRW 3.8143tn
Institutions+KRW 1.1708tn
Residual+KRW 1.5919tn
Data basis· Investor totals = Naver Finance· Stock-level = KRX· Different market scopes → no cross-addition or ratio calculations· Residual = balancing figure equal to the opposite sign of the sum of the three investor groups
Foreigners· Third straight day of selling· Previous day -KRW 3.6764tnwith the amount increasing
Institutions· Swung back to net buying after one day· Previous day -KRW 1.2928tn→ reversed to net buying
Individuals· Second straight day of buying· Previous day +KRW 3.3209tnwith the amount shrinking
Residual· Same size for a second straight day· Previous day +KRW 1.6483tnBalancing figure combining other corporations and other foreign investors· Includes ongoing treasury-share purchases
Foreign cash equities and futures moved in the same direction· The split ended after three days
KOSDAQ· Individuals -KRW 137.5bn· Foreigners +KRW 132.7bn· Institutions +KRW 15.6bn· All three investor groups had the opposite sign from KOSPI
Foreigners sold KOSPI but bought KOSDAQ· Three groups split the KOSPI supply
Foreign futuresK200 futures net-buy amount· KRX derivatives data· Value basis-KRW 102.0bn
Program tradingAutomated orders across multiple stocks· Index · flow transmission path(KOSPI)-KRW 2.6291tn
USD/KRWKorean FX daytime session 15:30 close· Up KRW 3.7 from previous day· First rise in eight sessions1,386.1 ▲3.70
Market breadthAdvancing-share ratio· Measures the breadth of advances · declines
KOSPI 649 / 910 = 71.3% Advancing 647· Limit-up 2· Unchanged 34· Declining 226· Limit-down 1
KOSDAQ 1,190 / 1,730 = 68.8% Advancing 1,186· Limit-up 4· Unchanged 74· Declining 466· limit-down 0
vs. previous day· Advancing-share ratios widened in both markets· KOSPI by 7.1%p· KOSDAQ by 15.3%p
KOSPI advancers were 2.9x decliners· Previous day 2.0x
KOSDAQ advancing-share ratio was 2.5%p below KOSPI· versus 10.7%p below the previous day
Index direction and breadth aligned for the first time in three days
Turnover KRX data
| Market | Turnover | vs. five-day average |
|---|
| KOSPI | KRW 23.70tn | 87% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW 4.69tn | 79% |
KOSPI turnover· Five-day average 95% → 87%· Absolute value KRW 26.10tn → KRW 23.70tnThe index rose, but turnover fell for a second straight day· 81% of the 20-day average
KOSDAQ turnover· 68% → 79%· KRW 4.45tn → KRW 4.69tnThe two markets diverged· Only KOSDAQ increased
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares → a bearish position· By trading value· 08/25 regular-session final· collected 16:10· KOSPI KRW 1.92tn· 6.0% of combined KRX+NXT turnoverPrevious day KRW 2.18tn · 6.2%· Same finalized regular-session basis
Short selling· KOSDAQ KRW 0.27tn· 4.8% on the same basis
No. 1 short-selling value: Samsung Electronics KRW 379.5bn· share 4.9%· No. 2 SK Hynix KRW 302.3bn · 3.3%No. 3 Samsung Electronics preferred KRW 280.2bn · 20.4%· Highest share: Korea Aerospace Industries 54.8%· No. 2 JYP Ent. 40.4%· No. 3 Samyang Corp. 37.3%
Flows over the last five sessions
Flows over the last five sessions KOSPI· Naver Finance investor-flow data
08.25Individuals+KRW 1.05tnForeigners-KRW 3.81tnInstitutions+KRW 1.17tn
After opening with a gap down on the U.S. semiconductor plunge, KOSPI rebounded 333.92p from its low· Foreign selling continued for a third day, with SK Hynix becoming the No. 1 net-sell name· Institutions turned to buying after one day· Individuals bought for a second day
08.24Individuals+KRW 3.32tnForeigners-KRW 3.68tnInstitutions-KRW 1.29tn
The market treated Samsung Electronics' finalized shareholder-return plan as a sell-the-news event· Most foreign selling was concentrated in the two mega caps· Institutions were net buyers outside the two names· Individuals turned to buying after two days of selling
08.21Individuals-KRW 1.17tnForeigners-KRW 0.18tnInstitutions+KRW 0.25tn
After a gap-down open, large-cap semiconductors were first to recover their losses· At 10:05, a KOSDAQ sell-sidecar was triggered· Broader coverage of the shareholder-return plan overlapped with strength across Samsung affiliates· Institutions turned to buying
08.20Individuals-KRW 2.27tnForeigners+KRW 1.71tnInstitutions-KRW 0.49tn
Foreigners turned to buying after one day· Most of the buying went into the two mega caps· Institutional selling extended to a fourth day, but the amount narrowed· Individuals turned to selling after two days of buying
08.19Individuals+KRW 4.64tnForeigners-KRW 3.49tnInstitutions-KRW 1.32tn
Foreigners turned to selling after five days of buying· Most of the selling was concentrated in the two mega caps· Institutional selling continued for a third day· Individuals bought for a second day
CumulativeIndividuals+KRW 5.57tnForeigners-KRW 9.45tnInstitutions-KRW 1.69tn
Five-session total, 08.19~08.25· Foreigners: one buying day · four selling days· From the prior window (08.18~08.24) of -KRW 5.54tncumulative selling increased by KRW 3.91tn
KOSDAQ, five sessions· Foreigners -KRW 22.0bn· Institutions -KRW 144.0bn· Individuals +KRW 156.0bn
K200 futures, five sessions· Foreigners -KRW 1.04tn· Institutions +KRW 2.08tnCash equities -KRW 9.45tnand futures moved in the same direction· Individuals -KRW 871.0bn
futures ·Program tradingAutomated orders across multiple stocks· Index · flow transmission path
Foreign futuresK200 futures net-buy amount· KRX derivatives data· Value basis
-KRW 102.0bn
turned to selling after two days of buying· Previous day +KRW 695.0bn· Same direction as cash equities· KRX derivatives, value basis
Institutional futures
+KRW 391.0bn
turned to buying after two days of selling· Previous day -KRW 870.0bn· Opposite direction from foreigners· Individuals -KRW 281.0bn
Program tradingAutomated orders across multiple stocks· Index · flow transmission path(KOSPI)
-KRW 2.6291tn
Arbitrage +KRW 102.4bn· Non-arbitrage -KRW 2.7315tn· Third straight day of selling
Cash · futures closing spread
+2.92
Cash 1,060.68· Futures 1,063.60· 2609 contract· Close times differ, 15:30 / 15:45 → excluded as a directional signal
Arbitrage and non-arbitrage moved in opposite directions· For a fourth straight day
KOSDAQ program trading· Arbitrage -KRW 5.6bn· Non-arbitrage +KRW 106.3bn· Total +KRW 100.7bn· Opposite direction from KOSPIThe two markets diverged for a second straight day
Foreigners· Cash equities and futures aligned for the first time in three days
Institutions· Cash equities +KRW 1.1708tn· Futures +KRW 391.0bn· Both were net buyers
Cash · futures closing spread· Previous day -2.36 to +2.92· No same-time futures price is available, so this is not read directionally
Program tradingAutomated orders across multiple stocks· Index · flow transmission path· Already included in investor flows → no separate addition
Net buying by investor· Net sell
Foreigners
Net buy
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics+KRW 50.0bn
- HD Hyundai Heavy Industries+KRW 29.2bn
- LIG Defense & Aerospace+KRW 19.0bn
- SK+KRW 18.5bn
- Jusung Engineering+KRW 17.0bn
Net sell
- SK Hynix-KRW 1.9982tn
- Samsung Electronics-KRW 1.2566tn
- Samsung Electronics preferred-KRW 324.7bn
- SK Square-KRW 85.2bn
- Hyundai Motor-KRW 59.7bn
Institutions
Net buy
- SK Hynix+KRW 328.1bn
- Doosan Enerbility+KRW 99.3bn
- Hyundai E&C+KRW 64.0bn
- Samsung Electronics+KRW 50.0bn
- Samsung Electronics preferred+KRW 44.2bn
Net sell
- Alteogen-KRW 23.1bn
- Samsung C&T-KRW 20.4bn
- LIG Defense & Aerospace-KRW 18.5bn
- Hyundai Motor-KRW 17.6bn
- SK-KRW 13.4bn
Individuals
Net buy
- Samsung Electronics+KRW 698.6bn
- SK Hynix+KRW 618.9bn
- Samsung Electronics preferred+KRW 257.2bn
- SK Square+KRW 83.8bn
- Hyundai Motor+KRW 76.9bn
Net sell
- Doosan Enerbility-KRW 95.9bn
- Hyundai E&C-KRW 49.3bn
- APR-KRW 43.5bn
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics-KRW 40.2bn
- HPSP-KRW 35.5bn
SK Hynix alone, the No. 1 foreign net sell, accounted for 45% of the total net-sold stocksThe top five accounted for 83%· Total net-sold stocks: -KRW 4.4838tn· The previous day's No. 1 was Samsung Electronics at 41%
Foreign buying was the exact opposite: broadly dispersed· The top name accounted for 6%· The top five for 17%Samsung Electro-Mechanics, the No. 1 net buy at KRW 50.0bn, was only about one-fortieth the size of the No. 1 net sell
The top institutional and individual lists were mirror imagesInstitutional net-buy ranks No. 2 · No. 3 (Doosan Enerbility · Hyundai E&C) were individual net-sell ranks No. 1 · No. 2
Institutions bought the two mega caps together with construction · nuclear namesSK Hynix, the No. 1 net buy, accounted for 20% of institutional net-buy stocks· The top five accounted for 36%· Calculated from raw data
Next path
The two mega caps stopped falling, while seven in ten stocks advanced· Three groups split the foreign selling
Rebound continuesBreadth holds + institutions buy for a second day + the two mega caps turn higher → whether the 8/20 close of 6,852.58 is reclaimed becomes the checkpoint
Foreign selling persistsForeign selling extends to a fourth day + program selling persists + turnover falls further → whether the previous close of 6,696.96 holds becomes the checkpoint
Earnings-waiting consolidationLarge-cap semiconductors remain range-bound until the Nvidia release· with rotation continuing into KOSDAQ and construction · nuclear names
Next check· Whether foreign selling extends to a fourth day + whether the largest stock by market cap moves above flat
Upcoming Schedule7 events
8/25 (Tue)
23:00
U.S. August Consumer Confidence Index· July New Home Sales
Released simultaneously at 10:00 ET· Consumer Confidence prior 90.8 · consensus 90.3· New Home Sales prior 628K · consensus 620K· Both arrive before the next Korean market open
8/26 (Wed)
06:00
Korea August Business Sentiment Index
July all-industry 98.5· manufacturing 103.2· August estimate unavailable
8/26 (Wed)
21:30
U.S. Q2 GDP, second estimate· July Personal Income · Personal Consumption Expenditures· July Durable Goods Orders
All three released at the same time· GDP advance estimate was +1.5%· July PCE inflation expected at 3.6% YoY· Durable-goods forecasts are too dispersed to set a reference line
8/27 (Thu)
05:20
Nvidia FY27 Q2 earnings
After the 8/26 U.S. regular-session close· Released 05:20 Korea time· Conference call 06:00· Revenue ConsensusAverage analyst forecast· Separate from company guidance $91.8bn· Adjusted EPSEarnings per share· Net income ÷ shares outstanding· Adjusted EPS excludes one-off gains and losses $2.08· Company guidance $91.0bn±2%
8/27 (Thu)
Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board
Current policy rate 2.75%· Bond-market survey: hold 79% · hike 20%· Brokerage forecasts are split
8/27 (Thu)~29 (Sat)
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Theme: financial innovation and payments· Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote is 8/28 23:00(local 10:00 ET)· Federal Reserve calendar published
8/31 (Mon)
MSCI August regular rebalance takes effect
At the close· Korea inclusion: LG Innotek· Deletions: HLB· LG Display· POSCO International· Samsung Epis Holdings
Indicators· Earnings reference points
Previous release· Prior and actual
| Metric | Prior | Actual |
|---|
| Korea August Consumer Sentiment IndexBank of Korea survey· Above 100 = optimistic· versus long-run average· released 8/25 06:00 | 106.8 | 104.5 |
| Expected inflation in same survey (%) | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| U.S. 30Y CMTOfficial Treasury yield by maturity derived from quotes collected at 15:30 ET· Not an actual traded closing yield(%) | 5.27 | 5.23 |
| U.S. 10Y CMTOfficial Treasury yield by maturity derived from quotes collected at 15:30 ET· Not an actual traded closing yield(%) | 4.74 | 4.70 |
Consumer Sentiment Index 104.5· First decline in four months, but still above 100Current conditions 79· Future outlook 89· The Bank of Korea cited the stock-market correction and rising living costs
30Y 5.23%· -4bp vs. previous day· The two-day rise after 5.19% on 8/19 stoppedThe point where the two-day rise stopped· Five-session values are in the sources
No major U.S. economic releases on 8/24· U.S. equities were driven by memory-related news, not macro data
To be checked in sequence· Release times are Korea time
| Name | Release | Estimate |
|---|
| U.S. August Consumer Confidence Index | 8/25 | 90.3 |
| U.S. July New Home Sales (K) | 8/25 | 620 |
| Korea August Business Sentiment Index | 8/26 | Unavailable |
| U.S. July Durable Goods Orders MoM (%) | 8/26 | Unavailable |
| U.S. Q2 GDP, second estimate (%) | 8/26 | Unavailable |
| U.S. July PCE inflation YoY (%) | 8/26 | 3.6 |
| Nvidia FY27 Q2 revenue (US$100mn) | 8/27 | 918 |
| Adjusted for the same quarter EPSEarnings per share· Net income ÷ shares outstanding· Adjusted EPS excludes one-off gains and losses($) | 8/27 | 2.08 |
| Company guidance for the same quarter (US$100mn) | 8/27 | 910 |
| Bank of Korea policy rate (%) | 8/27 | 2.75 |
Nvidia's $91.0bn±2% is company-issued guidance· Separate from consensusRevenue consensus ranges from $91.8bn to $92.1bn by source; the lower figure is used in the table· The release comes after the U.S. regular-session close on 8/26· The table date is 8/27 Korea time
U.S. August Consumer Confidence prior 90.8· July New Home Sales prior 628KBoth at local 8/25 10:00 ET = today 23:00 Korea time· Results arrive before the next Korean market open
U.S. July Durable Goods Orders forecasts range from -0.7%~+3.3%so no single reference line is usedCompiled median +1.7%· Separate institutional forecast +0.6%· June actual +0.3%
Estimate unavailable for the U.S. Q2 GDP second estimate· Only the +1.5% advance estimate is confirmedEstimate also unavailable for Korea's August Business Sentiment Index· July all-industry 98.5 is the prior value
Monetary-policy forecasts are split· Bond-market survey: hold 79% · hike 20%Other expert surveys reportedly lean toward a hike, so neither side is used as the reference case
Post-close variables· Market prices as of August 25, 16:11 Korea time· Not official closes
8/25 U.S. regular session tonight· In the prior session, the three major indexes diverged and only SOX -2.70%How the recovery in Korean large-cap semiconductors feeds back into U.S. semiconductors becomes a condition for the next Korean open
Korea August Consumer Sentiment Index 104.5· down 2.3p from 106.8 in July· first decline in four monthsThe Bank of Korea cited the stock-market correction and higher living costs· Expected inflation 2.7%, unchanged from prior month
Samsung Electronics treasury shares for employee compensation· Second day of the 8/24~11/21 market-purchase periodAbout KRW 15tn· Because the shares are not being retired, the program does not permanently reduce shares outstanding· Daily executed amounts are not disclosed
Hanwha spin-off relisting, first day· Newly spun-off entity listed simultaneouslyExcluded from next-session directional evidence because price discovery is still underway
WTI $84.25 (-0.89%)· Gold $4,694.60 (+1.16%)· Live price
Dollar Index 99.098 (+0.10%)· Bitcoin $80,692 (+2.19%)· Live price
Releases before the next Korean openToday 23:00: U.S. August Consumer Confidence and July New Home Sales8/26 06:00: Korea August Business Sentiment Index
This week's trading days· 8/24 ~ 8/25
08.25 (Tue)KOSPI+0.68%KOSDAQ+1.70%Foreigners-KRW 3.81tn
U.S. semiconductors -2.70%set up a gap-down open, pushing the index to -4.30%before it reversed higher· Buying rotated into construction · nuclear, supporting the lower end· Large-cap semiconductor dip buying appeared in the afternoon· Seven in ten stocks advanced
08.24 (Mon)KOSPI-3.12%KOSDAQ+1.42%Foreigners-KRW 3.68tn
The market treated Samsung Electronics' KRW 90tn~110tn shareholder-return plan announced after the 8/21 close as a sell-the-news event· Three support levels broke simultaneously· Large caps weighed on the index, while roughly two-thirds of stocks still advanced
Two-session cumulative this week· KOSPI -2.46%versus 8/21 close 6,912.95· Compounded basis
Advancing-share ratio· from roughly two-thirds to seven in ten
Foreign KOSPI flow· -KRW 3.6764tn → -KRW 3.8143tn· Two-session total -KRW 7.4907tn
No. 1 sector· Nonferrous Metals → Construction
KOSDAQ outperformed KOSPI in both sessions· 827.15 is the highest close since 8/20
Technical levels· Three indexes
KOSPICurrent 6,742.74
Current
6,4086,6966,884
Support6,696.96 → 6,600 → 6,408.82 Previous close· Psychological level· Today's low
Resistance6,747.16 → 6,852.58 → 6,884.57 Today's high· 8/20 close· 8/24 high
45.78p above the previous close of 6,696.96· Distance to today's low: 333.92p
KOSPI200Current 1,060.68
Current
1,0541,0801,096
Support1,054.01 → 1,050 → 1,000 Previous close· Psychological level· Psychological level
Resistance1,080.98 → 1,082.00 → 1,096.25 8/20 close· 8/18 close· 8/21 close
10.68p above the 1,050 psychological level· Rose 0.05%p less than KOSPI
KOSDAQCurrent 827.15
Current
781813864
Support813.33 → 804.27 → 800 Previous close· 8/24 open· Psychological level
Resistance834.20 → 840.89 → 864.65 8/18 close· 8/20 close· 8/14 close
27.15p above 800· Distance to the 8/18 close of 834.20: 7.05p
One-line glossary
- Limit-up· Limit-down
- Daily price limit ±30%· 8/25 KOSPI limit-up 2 · limit-down 1· KOSDAQ limit-up 4 · limit-down 0
- CMT
- Official Treasury yield by maturity calculated from indicative quotes around 15:30 ET· Because it is not an actual traded closing yield, it is not called a “close”
- SOX
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index· Benchmark for global semiconductor stocks
- Consumer Sentiment Index
- Monthly Bank of Korea composite survey of household sentiment· Long-run average = 100; above means optimistic · below means pessimistic
- HBM
- High Bandwidth Memory· DRAM stacked in multiple layers to increase bandwidth
- CXL
- Compute Express Link· An interface standard connecting CPUs with memory · accelerators
- materials · parts · equipment
- Materials · parts · equipment· Primarily suppliers of materials · equipment to large semiconductor manufacturers
- EPS
- Earnings per share· Net income ÷ shares outstanding· Adjusted figures exclude one-off gains and losses
- Consensus· Guidance
- Consensus = average analyst forecast· Guidance = company-issued outlook
- Short selling
- Selling borrowed shares → a bearish position· 8/25 KOSPI KRW 1.92tn· 6.0% of combined KRX+NXT turnover· Finalized regular-session basis
- Flow concentration
- Share of each side's stock-level total accounted for by the top net-buy · net-sell names· KRX data
- Program trading
- Automated orders across multiple stocks· Index · flow transmission path· Already included in investor flows
- Arbitrage· Non-arbitrage
- Arbitrage = trading the cash · futures price gap· Non-arbitrage = general program trading such as index tracking
- Cash · futures closing spread
- Cash closes 15:30 / futures 15:45 → not the same-time price, so it is not called “basis” and is excluded from directional signals
- USD/KRW 15:30 close
- Korean FX daytime session 15:30 close· Reference USD/KRW value used in the report· A different series from the basic exchange rate
- Basic exchange rate
- Published volume-weighted average of interbank transaction rates· Used only for JPY/KRW per 100 yen· USD/KRW uses the daytime-session close
- Sector· Theme return
- Sector = market-cap weighted· Theme = simple average of constituents· If figures conflict, use the sector figure
- Market-cap weighted
- The sector index weights stocks by market capitalization· Larger stocks have more influence
- Market breadth
- Advancing-share ratio· Measures the breadth of advances · declines
Sources and data basis
- Korea Exchange (KRX) · Naver Finance KOSPI 6,742.74(+0.68%, 08.25 market-close final) O 6,535.93 · H 6,747.16 · L 6,408.82 / KOSDAQ 827.15(+1.70%) O 806.93 · H 827.15 · L 781.89 / KOSPI 200 1,060.68(+0.63%, close basis) / issue counts: KOSPI advancing 647 · limit-up 2 · unchanged 34 · declining 226 · limit-down 1, KOSDAQ advancing 1,186 · limit-up 4 · unchanged 74 · declining 466 · limit-down 0 / turnover: KOSPI KRW 23.70tn (87% of five-day average · 81% of 20-day average) · KOSDAQ KRW 4.69tn (79% · 78%): dashboard (Naver Finance index daily bars · KRX source, market-close final· Last updated 08.25 14:11:17 ICT = 16:11 Korea time)· Market breadth = (advancing + limit-up) ÷ total including unchanged: KOSPI 649÷910 = 71.3%, KOSDAQ 1,190÷1,730 = 68.8%· If closing articles differ at the decimal level, the dashboard's finalized regular-session figure is used
- Investor totals (Naver Finance investor data, 08.25 close) KOSPI individuals +KRW 1.0516tn· foreigners -KRW 3.8143tn· institutions +KRW 1.1708tn / KOSDAQ individuals -KRW 137.5bn· foreigners +KRW 132.7bn· institutions +KRW 15.6bn / K200 futures foreigners -KRW 102.0bn· institutions +KRW 391.0bn· individuals -KRW 281.0bn / five-session cumulative (08.19~08.25) foreigners -KRW 9.45tn· institutions -KRW 1.69tn· individuals +KRW 5.57tn, KOSDAQ foreigners -KRW 22.0bn · institutions -KRW 144.0bn · individuals +KRW 156.0bn, K200 futures foreigners -KRW 1.04tn · institutions +KRW 2.08tn · individuals -KRW 871.0bn / program trading: KOSPI arbitrage +KRW 102.4bn · non-arbitrage -KRW 2.7315tn · total -KRW 2.6291tn, KOSDAQ arbitrage -KRW 5.6bn · non-arbitrage +KRW 106.3bn · total +KRW 100.7bn / cash · futures closing spread +2.92 (cash 1,060.68 · futures 1,063.60 · 2609 contract)· Because no same-time 15:30 futures price is available, this is not called “basis” · “contango” and is excluded from directional evidence· Do not mix with KRX-series figures in closing articles (foreigners -KRW 3.9491tn · institutions +KRW 1.2207tn · individuals +KRW 1.1461tn), which use a different aggregation scope
- Stock-level investor flows Korea Exchange trading by investor type (entire stock market · regular-session final, raw-data header 08.25 14:11:57 ICT = collected 16:11 Korea time). Foreign net-buy stock total +KRW 796.9bn· net-sell stock total -KRW 4.4838tn· SK Hynix -KRW 1.9982tn· Samsung Electronics -KRW 1.2566tn· Samsung Electronics preferred -KRW 324.7bn · SK Square -KRW 85.2bn · Hyundai Motor -KRW 59.7bn · No. 1 net buy Samsung Electro-Mechanics +KRW 50.0bn / institutions SK Hynix +KRW 328.1bn· Doosan Enerbility +KRW 99.3bn· Hyundai E&C +KRW 64.0bn· Samsung Electronics +KRW 50.0bn· Samsung Electronics preferred +KRW 44.2bn · No. 1 net sell Alteogen -KRW 23.1bn / individuals Samsung Electronics +KRW 698.6bn· SK Hynix +KRW 618.9bn· Samsung Electronics preferred +KRW 257.2bn · No. 1 net sell Doosan Enerbility -KRW 95.9bn· Figures excluding the two mega caps are balancing values calculated by adding net-buy and net-sell totals, then subtracting the two names: foreigners -KRW 431.9bn · institutions +KRW 808.7bn · individuals -KRW 403.8bn· Flow-concentration figures match the dashboard and recalculation from raw data (foreign selling TOP1 45% · TOP5 83%, foreign buying TOP1 6% · TOP5 17%, institutional buying TOP1 20% · TOP5 36%, institutional selling TOP1 5% · TOP5 21%)· Investor totals (Naver) and stock-level data (KRX) cover different market scopes, so no cross-addition or ratio calculations are made: Korea Exchange Data System
- Final closing prices by stock Samsung Electronics KRW 257,000 (0.00% · market cap KRW 1,502.5tn) · SK Hynix KRW 1,678,000 (+0.42%· KRW 1,225.8tn) · Samsung Electronics preferred KRW 194,500 (+2.75%) · SK Square KRW 1,060,000 (−1.49%) · Samsung Electro-Mechanics KRW 1,362,000 (+3.34%) · Hyundai Motor KRW 421,000 (+1.69%) · LG Energy Solution KRW 349,500 (−3.45%) · Samsung Biologics KRW 1,585,000 (+0.76%) · Samsung C&T KRW 367,000 (+0.69%) · KB Financial KRW 166,400 (+2.02%): dashboard top 10 by market cap (regular-session close)· Intraday lows: Samsung Electronics KRW 245,000 (−4.67%) · SK Hynix KRW 1,557,000 (−6.82%) · both set just after the open: cross-checked against Yonhap's closing article and live quotes· The 10:20 live prices (Samsung Electronics KRW 248,250 · SK Hynix KRW 1,573,000) differ from the lows and are not mixed
- Short selling (KRX+NXT combined ·regular-session final · collected 08.25 16:10) KOSPI KRW 1.92tn · 6.0% of market turnover / KOSDAQ KRW 0.27tn · 4.8% / No. 1 short-selling value Samsung Electronics KRW 379.5bn (4.9%) · No. 2 SK Hynix KRW 302.3bn (3.3%) · No. 3 Samsung Electronics preferred KRW 280.2bn (20.4%) · No. 4 Samsung Electro-Mechanics KRW 68.4bn (6.2%) · No. 5 Hyundai Motor KRW 46.7bn (12.4%) / highest short-selling share Korea Aerospace Industries 54.8% · No. 2 JYP Ent. 40.4% · No. 3 Samyang Corp. 37.3%· Directly comparable with the previous day's KRW 2.18tn · 6.2% and Samsung Electronics KRW 1.0167tn · 8.8%, all on the same finalized regular-session basis
- 08.24 U.S. market final Dow 53,417.20 (+0.26%)·S&P500 7,652.86(−0.28%) · Nasdaq 25,980.19 (−0.76%)·SOX 11,423.17(−2.70%)·VIX 15.85(+4.76%): dashboard (Yahoo Finance source) / All 30 SOX constituents fell · Seagate -6.51% · SanDisk -6.45% · Micron -5.83% · TSMC ADR -3.11% · Nvidia -2.91% (seventh straight decline) · Broadcom -2.60%· The trigger was a weekend report that the U.S. administration may allow Apple to buy Chinese-made DRAM · NAND: TradingKey / 24/7 Wall St. / Motley Fool· Final closing returns for SK Hynix ADR · Western Digital were unavailable, so they are omitted / WTI 08.24 final $85.01 (−2.4%): Rigzone
- U.S. Treasury yields U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (CMT · 15:30 ET fixing): 08.24 10Y 4.70% · 30Y 5.23%, 08.21 4.74% · 5.27%: U.S. Treasury· 30Y over five sessions: 08.18 5.28% → 08.19 5.19% → 08.20 5.23% → 08.21 5.27% → 08.24 5.23%· CMT is calculated from indicative quotes around 15:30 ET, so it is not called a “closing yield”· The dashboard's ^TNX 4.704% is a market-close series and is therefore not shown alongside it
- Korea August Consumer Sentiment Index (Bank of Korea release 08.25 06:00) composite 104.5 (July 106.8 · -2.3p · first decline in four months) · current conditions 79 (-5) · future outlook 89 (-3) · expected inflation 2.7% (unchanged from prior month): SmartBiz / Businesskorea· Employment-opportunity outlook · current-household-savings index figures differ by source and are therefore omitted
- 08.25 Korean market commentary Opened lower on U.S. semiconductor weakness and caution ahead of Nvidia earnings· After a semiconductor-led morning decline, rotation into other sectors supported the lower end of the index, followed by afternoon dip buying in large-cap semiconductors that turned the market higher (Kim Jae-seung, Hyundai Motor Securities): Etoday / Hanwha spin-off relisting, first day: Etoday / Hyundai Motor labor-management tentative wage agreement: Businesskorea· Sector · flow figures from quoted articles use different aggregation standards, so only background commentary is used, not the numerical figures
- Construction · nuclear catalysts 12th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand: 2040 peak-power demand target 158.4GW (raised from 131.8GW) · U.S. Department of Energy nuclear-supply-chain loan support $17.5bn: Maeil Newspaper / Etoday· Intraday percentage moves quoted in articles are not used; only finalized market-close sector · theme figures are used / Westinghouse stake-acquisition report · government denial Korea Economic Daily report, 08.24· Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy official statement, 08.25· Maeil Business Newspaper report on government denial, 08.24 22:59
- FX USD/KRW Korean FX daytime-session 15:30 close KRW 1,386.1(up KRW 3.7 from previous day · first rise in eight sessions): Etoday· The daytime-session 15:30 close is used as the USD/KRW reference · it is not mixed under one label with the basic exchange rate · the dashboard's 15:30 basic exchange rate of KRW 1,386.00 belongs to a different series and is not used / JPY/KRW per 100 yen basic exchange rate KRW 869.81 (previous KRW 869.27): dashboard· Only JPY/KRW uses the basic-exchange-rate series
- Sectors · themes Naver Finance sector · theme prices (market-close final, raw-data header 08.25 14:11:12 ICT = collected 16:11 Korea time). Of 79 sectors, 60 advanced · 19 declined / of 219 themes, 195 advanced · 24 declined / Construction +7.16%· of 78 stocks, 57 advanced · 11 unchanged · 10 declined / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment +0.47%· of 172 stocks, 150 advanced · 5 unchanged · 17 declined / Wireless Telecom Services −2.49%· of 4 stocks, 2 advanced · 1 unchanged · 1 declined / Electric Utilities +6.42% · Air Freight & Logistics +6.30% · Nonferrous Metals +5.60% · Machinery +5.59% · Electrical Products -1.74% · Biotechnology -1.88% · Life Sciences Tools & Services -1.14% · Marine Shipping -0.52% · Chemicals -1.06% · Pharmaceuticals -1.11% · Life Insurance +0.71% / Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning +8.54% · CXL +6.65% · Fusion Energy +6.20% · Nuclear Power +6.00% · Leading Construction Stocks +5.89% · Semiconductor Substrates +5.58% · HBM +4.99% · Glass Substrates +4.23% · Semiconductor Materials/Components +4.01% · System Semiconductors +2.89% · Leading Semiconductor Stocks (Manufacturing) +2.28% · mRNA -4.76% · Secondary Batteries (Manufacturing) -2.20%
- No. 1 sector changed for eight consecutive sessions 08.13 Electronic Equipment & Instruments → 08.14 Wireless Telecom Services → 08.18 Marine Shipping → 08.19 Leisure Equipment & Products → 08.20 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment → 08.21 Life Insurance → 08.24 Nonferrous Metals → 08.25 Construction: Naver Finance sector raw data for each session· Korean market closed on 08.17
- Samsung Electronics treasury shares for employee compensation About KRW 15tn · separately approved · acquisition period August 24~November 21, 2026 · market purchases · no retirement plan: Korea Economic Daily· Daily executed amount is not disclosed and cannot be verified / SK Hynix treasury shares Approved 08.19 · KRW 40tn · acquisition period three months from 08.20 · all shares to be retired: Financial News· Actual executed amount will be confirmed in the result filing after the acquisition period · publication timing unconfirmed
- Upcoming events · consensus U.S. August Conference Board Consumer Confidence · July New Home Sales, 8/25 23:00 (released simultaneously at local 10:00 ET · Consumer Confidence prior 90.8 · consensus 90.3 · New Home Sales prior 628K · consensus 620K): Investing.com (Consumer Confidence)· Investing.com (New Home Sales) / Korea August Business Sentiment Index 8/26 06:00 (July all-industry 98.5 · manufacturing 103.2 · August estimate unavailable) / U.S. Q2 GDP second estimate · July Personal Income · Personal Consumption Expenditures · July Durable Goods Orders 8/26 21:30 (GDP advance estimate +1.5% · second-estimate forecast unavailable · July PCE inflation expected 3.6% YoY · Durable Goods Orders MoM forecast range -0.7%~+3.3% · compiled median +1.7% · separate institutional forecast +0.6% · June actual +0.3%): TokenPost· Econoday· Continuum Economics / Nvidia FY27 Q2 earnings Released U.S. 8/26 (Wed) 1:20 p.m. PT · call at 2:00 p.m. PT = Korea time 8/27 (Thu) 05:20 · 06:00(revenue consensus $91.8bn · adjusted EPS $2.08 · company guidance $91.0bn±2%): NVIDIA Newsroom· Revenue consensus ranges from $91.8bn to $92.1bn by source; the lower figure is used in the table and the range is retained here / Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board 8/27 · current policy rate 2.75% · Korea Financial Investment Association bond-market survey (08.13~19): hold 79% · hike 20%: Maeil Newspaper· Other expert surveys reportedly lean toward a hike, so neither side is used as the reference case / Jackson Hole Symposium 8/27~29 (Chair Kevin Warsh keynote 8/28 10:00 ET = 23:00 Korea time: Federal Reserve calendar) / MSCI August regular rebalance effective at the 8/31 close · inclusion LG Innotek · deletions HLB· LG Display· POSCO International· Samsung Epis Holdings: Sisa Journal
Disclaimer: This material is for reference only, intended to analyze market structure and organize decision inputs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific financial product.
