Heavier Than the Support · Today in One Line · External prices set the day's direction
Snowshagal Daily
2026.09.02

Heavier Than
the Support

TODAY IN ONE LINE

External prices setthe day's direction

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SNOWSHAGAL · DAILY
MARKET RESEARCH
2026.09.02 · WED
KRX CLOSE 15:30
DAILY MARKET NOTE / 02 SEP 2026

A night of rising oil and yields,
KOSPI down 4%

KOSPI -3.99% · Turned lower after three sessions · Never closed the opening gap below -3%The main pressure came from higher crude oil and U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified · Risk aversion grew as the probability of a September Fed hike rose into the high-60% rangeSamsung Electronics and SK hynix continued share buybacks, while other-corporation buying stayed near the previous session's level · KRW 4tn of foreign and institutional selling overwhelmed itKOSDAQ -2.10% · Recovered to near the previous close at one point in the morning, then fell again in the afternoon

The hand supporting the index was still there.
MARKET PATH / 01

Opened below -3%; the morning rebound ended before 10 a.m.

When did the direction change, and what was driving it?
KOSPI · 09:00~15:30Opened lower at 6,625.47 → High of 6,694.57 around 09:40 → Losses widened after 12:30 → Low of 6,558.30 after 15:00 → Closed at 6,562.72
09:00 12:00 15:30
OPEN6,625.47-3.08%
HIGH6,694.57-2.07%
LOW6,558.30-4.06%
CLOSE6,562.72-3.99%
THE READ

A session that priced the overnight oil-and-yield shock into the opening print all at once · Three-quarters of the day's decline was already set before the openThe first signal was that the morning rebound recovered only about one-third of the gap · The buy side was not as deep as in the previous sessionThe afternoon decline was concentrated at the top of the market-cap table and in non-arbitrage selling · KOSPI 200 fell more than the KOSPIDecliners outnumbered advancers five to one · The opposite of the previous session, when only the largest caps fell: this time the whole market moved down togetherKOSDAQ returned to near the previous close in the morning, then slipped again in the afternoon · The two markets differed in the morning but converged in the afternoon

OPEN · MORNING

Opened 210 points lower, peaked before 10 a.m.

Opened at 6,625.47, 210.33 points below the previous closeReached 6,694.57 around 09:40 · Recovered only one-third of the opening gapRetreated to the 6,620 area after 10:30 · Traded sideways around 6,620-6,640 until noon

AFTERNOON

Broke below 6,600 around 13:00

Losses widened after 12:30 · Fell below 6,600 around 13:00One rebound to around 6,610 near 14:20 · The recovery was smaller than in the morningThe defining feature of the afternoon was that the index made new lows after each rebound

CLOSE

Closed near the low; KOSDAQ moved the same way

Hit a low of 6,558.30 after 15:00 · Closed at 6,562.72, only 4.42 points above the lowKOSDAQ hit 796.34 just after the open, rebounded to around 819.62 near 09:40, then closed at 803.98 in the afternoonA day when the index direction and internal market breadth pointed the same way

Directional line traced from Naver Finance's intraday KOSPI chart. Open, low, high and close are confirmed values; the path between them is an approximation following the intraday chart.
WHY / 02

Semiconductors and inflation added to the oil-and-yield shock

Only the factors that actually explained the day's direction
01

The main downside catalyst was the joint rise in oil and U.S. yields after the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified

On Sep. 1, U.S. forces struck about 100 IRGC targets in southern Iran and around the Strait of Hormuz · Iran retaliated against a U.S. base in JordanWTI above USD 90 · Brent in the USD 94 range, the highest since late July · Oil-driven inflation concerns combined with fiscal and Treasury-supply pressure, pushing the U.S. 10Y to 4.79%, the highest since January 2025Probability of a 25bp September FOMC hike moved into the high-60% range · It became a broad justification for selling risk assets

68% Probability of a 25bp September hike · Below 40% one week earlier
View evidence
Sep. 1 U.S. session · WTI Oct futures USD 90.22, +5.2% · Brent Nov futures USD 94.65, +4.6% · Highest closes since Jul. 23 and Jul. 24, respectively
U.S. 10Y 4.792%, +3.4bp · 2Y 4.389% · Japan 10Y 2.996%, highest since 1996 · U.K. 30Y highest since 1998 · German long-end yields also rose
Dow -0.79% · S&P 500 -0.71% · Nasdaq -1.03% · Spot gold -2.4% · Dollar Index +0.27%
U.S. Central Command: strikes responded to IRGC mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz, attempted attacks on civilian vessels and a missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan · Iranian forces signaled further retaliation
Two tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz · One was a Liberia-flagged vessel linked to Sinokor Merchant Marine; the other was Saudi state-owned · Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries said there were no Korean-flagged vessels or Korean crew involved
U.S. August ISM manufacturing and July JOLTS were weak · They did not reduce the implied hike probability
02

U.S. chip weakness met lingering concern over China's HBM catch-up

Sep. 1 U.S. session · Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -2.14% · Micron -2.64% · Lam Research and Applied Materials down more than 3%China's CXMT small-volume production was first reported Aug. 31 and covered domestically on Sep. 1 · It was an existing factor from the prior session, not a new event todaySamsung Electronics -4.02% · SK hynix -4.73% · KOSPI electrical & electronics -4.34% · The direct drivers of today's decline were U.S. semiconductor weakness, higher long-term yields, and foreign/institutional selling (interpretation)

-4.73%SK hynix close KRW 1,613,000
View evidence
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 11,288.61, -2.14% · Nvidia -1.51% · AMD -2.30% · Micron -2.64% · Lam Research -3.74% · Applied Materials -3.61% · SK hynix ADR -2.31%
CXMT HBM3E small-volume production · The Information report Aug. 31; Korean coverage Sep. 1 · Alibaba T-Head, Cambricon and others conducting compatibility tests · Products using it could arrive as early as 2027 · Volume and yield were not confirmed in the reports
Samsung Electronics KRW 250,500 -4.02% · SK Square KRW 982,000 -7.97% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics -2.10%
Some semiconductor equipment names moved the other way · ISC +8.53% · TSE +4.93% · EO Technics +2.03% · See SECTOR for the distribution
03

No domestic relief during the day · CPI 3.1%, KTB yields higher across the curve

August CPI, released at 08:00, rose 3.1% YoY · Back above 3% after two months · rose 3.4%, the highest since May 2023KTB yields rose across the curve: 3Y 3.930% · 10Y 4.418% · 20Y 4.614% · 30Y 4.657% · Domestic yields fully absorbed the pressure from higher U.S. ratesInsurance and financials, which had been strong on rising oil in the previous session, fell more than 3% today · Risk aversion outweighed the rate effect (interpretation)

3.4%August core inflation · Highest since May 2023
View evidence
CPI +3.1% YoY · +0.2% MoM · Cost-of-living index +3.2% · Agricultural/livestock/fishery products -2.6% · Industrial products +3.7% · Services +3.7%
Petroleum products +14.2% · Diesel +19.6% · Gasoline +11.5% · Mobile-phone charges +26.7%, reflecting the base effect from last August's telecom discount · Statistics Korea said inflation would be about 2.5% after removing that base effect
KTB close · 3Y 3.930%, +5.2bp · 10Y 4.418%, +4.7bp · 20Y 4.614%, +5.5bp · 30Y 4.657%, +3.0bp · 50Y 4.563%, +2.5bp · The 20Y rose the most at the long end · Domestic factors cited included 30Y auction supply-demand and concern over 2027 government-bond issuance
KOSPI insurance -3.70% · financials -3.44% · securities -3.60% · construction -3.90% · Large banks fell less: KB Financial -1.23% · Shinhan Financial -0.54% · Woori Financial -0.14%
MONEY / 03

Foreigners and institutions sold nearly KRW 4tn; KRW 1.65tn of other-corporation buying could not hold the index

Who moved the index today
Foreign + institutional · KOSPI cash market
-KRW 3.9534tn

Foreigners -KRW 1.9096tn · Institutions -KRW 2.0438tn · 2.4x the combined net selling of the three major investor groups in the previous sessionForeign investors was SK hynix · For institutions, Samsung Electronics accounted for 28% on the same basis · Selling was concentrated in the two largest market-cap namesForeigners reversed from the No. 1 net buyer of SK hynix in the previous session to the No. 1 net seller in one dayOutside those two names, SK Square, Hyundai Motor and Alteogen also ranked high in both foreign and institutional selling

Foreign · SK hynix-KRW 1.0685tn
Institutional · Samsung Electronics-KRW 752.6bn
Institutional · SK hynix-KRW 480.5bn
Program trading · detailed flows
KOSPI program-KRW 1.5140tn
-KRW 1.4700tn
Arbitrage program-KRW 44.0bn
KOSDAQ program+KRW 0.7bn
Vs previous session · KOSPI program selling widened from -KRW 320.1bn to -KRW 1.5140tn · Almost all was non-arbitrage · Cash-futures closing basis +2.85 → -2.38 · Cash 1,031.53 (15:30 close) · Futures 1,029.15 (15:45 close · Sep-2026 contract · expiry 2026-09) · Different timestamps, so excluded from directional interpretation
Cross-check · Retail KRW 2.3029tn - foreign KRW 1.9096tn - institutional KRW 2.0438tn = -KRW 1.6505tn · Rounding difference versus reported other-corporation net buying of KRW 1.6504tn
Opposite side of the two stocks · SK hynix KRW 1.0655tn · Samsung Electronics KRW 496.8bn · Total KRW 1.5623tn · Back-calculated from stock-level net flows of the three main investor groups, so other foreigners and government/local-government accounts may also be mixed in · Previous session KRW 1.5914tn
Flow concentration · Foreign sell TOP1 42% · TOP5 65% · buy TOP1 4% · TOP5 15% / Institutional sell TOP1 28% · TOP5 60% · buy TOP1 5% · TOP5 24%
The concentration denominator is the absolute sum of stock-level net-sold (or net-bought) values for that investor group, not the market-wide net amount
Retail stock-level net buying · Samsung Electronics +KRW 588.8bn · SK hynix +KRW 483.5bn · SK Square +KRW 278.5bn · Hyundai Motor +KRW 175.8bn · Alteogen +KRW 135.0bn / Net selling · Korean Air -KRW 24.8bn · Meritz Financial -KRW 19.5bn · Samsung Electro-Mechanics -KRW 18.0bn
Foreign stock-level net buying · Jusung Engineering +KRW 29.5bn · LG Energy Solution +KRW 19.4bn · GS +KRW 18.4bn · Hanmi Pharmaceutical +KRW 18.1bn · Hanmi Semiconductor +KRW 16.8bn / Net selling · SK hynix -KRW 1.0685tn · Samsung Electronics -KRW 333.0bn · SK Square -KRW 103.0bn · Alteogen -KRW 94.5bn · Hyundai Motor -KRW 54.0bn
Institutional stock-level net buying · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +KRW 21.3bn · DB Insurance +KRW 19.6bn · Shinhan Financial +KRW 19.2bn · SK Innovation +KRW 18.8bn · Meritz Financial +KRW 18.4bn / Net selling · Samsung Electronics -KRW 752.6bn · SK hynix -KRW 480.5bn · SK Square -KRW 182.8bn · Hyundai Motor -KRW 123.6bn · Hyundai Mobis -KRW 67.2bn
KOSDAQ · Retail +KRW 172.8bn · Foreign +KRW 61.8bn · Institutional -KRW 232.2bn · Foreign flow had the opposite sign from KOSPI
5-session cumulative (Aug. 27-Sep. 2), KOSPI · Foreign -KRW 3.76tn · Institutional -KRW 4.47tn · Retail +KRW 1.25tn
Trading value · KOSPI KRW 18.57tn (84% of 5-day avg · 74% of 20-day avg) · KOSDAQ KRW 5.42tn (110% · 92%) · KOSPI turnover rose about 6% from KRW 17.48tn in the previous session · Despite a 4% decline, turnover remained below the 5-day average
· KOSPI KRW 2.14tn, 9.1% of trading value (7.5% previous session) · KOSDAQ KRW 0.42tn, 6.4% · By stock: Samsung Electronics KRW 564.2bn (11.5% share) · SK hynix KRW 414.5bn (7.8%) · Hyundai Motor KRW 141.8bn (30.9%) · Shinhan Financial KRW 57.7bn (30.9%)
USD/KRW · Domestic FX market 15:30 close 1,368.7 · Down 1.7 won from the previous session · The currency barely moved despite nearly KRW 2tn of foreign equity selling
SECTOR / 04

Where it was strong · where it was weak

Today's distribution of strength and weakness, not a ranking table

A day with almost nowhere to call strong · 41 of 46 industries fell, and fell.The weakest areas were shipbuilding, secondary batteries and power equipment · Large-cap growth segments fell first and hardestLarge banks and some semiconductor-equipment names fell less · KRX AI Semiconductor Index was -0.98%, with 7 of 20 constituents higherThe three rising industries either had few constituents or were small-cap KOSDAQ indices · KOSPI medical & precision instruments +0.97% was created by just 1 rising stock out of 8 · Not treated as a genuine leadership group

STRONG

Non-metallic minerals · KOSDAQ+1.46%
Medical & precision instruments · KOSPI+0.97%
Distribution · KOSDAQ+0.48%

WEAK

Transportation equipment & parts · KOSPI-5.34%
Financials · KOSDAQ-4.35%
Electrical & electronics · KOSPI-4.34%
Machinery & equipment · KOSPI-4.32%
Sector evidence
46 KRX industry indices (KOSPI 24 · KOSDAQ 22) · 5 up · 41 down · KOSPI: 1 of 24 up · KOSDAQ: 4 of 22 up
KOSPI transportation equipment & parts -5.34% · 6 advancers, 52 decliners among 65 constituents · Hyundai Motor -5.62% · Kia -5.18% · HD Hyundai Heavy Industries -6.84%
KOSPI electrical & electronics -4.34% · 8 advancers, 71 decliners among 84 constituents · KOSPI manufacturing -4.19% · 80 advancers, 431 decliners among 557 constituents
KOSPI medical & precision instruments +0.97% · 1 advancer, 7 decliners among 8 constituents · KOSDAQ non-metallic minerals +1.46% · 7 advancers, 7 decliners among 15 constituents
39 official KRX theme indices · 0 up · 39 down · Separate index family from industries
Weak themes · Shipbuilding TOP10 -6.29% (all 10 constituents down) · K-AI Secondary Battery -5.75% · AI Power Infrastructure -5.62% (all 15 down) · Electric Vehicle Top 15 -5.16% · Secondary Battery TOP 10 -4.87% · K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+ -4.40%
Themes that fell less · Prime Office REITs -0.53% · Financial & Holding High Dividend -0.87% · AI Semiconductor -0.98% (7 of 20 up) · Bio TOP 10 -1.33%
All top 10 stocks by market cap fell · Samsung Electronics -4.02% · SK hynix -4.73% · Samsung Electronics Pref -2.52% · SK Square -7.97% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics -2.10% · LG Energy Solution -5.31% · Hyundai Motor -5.62% · Samsung Biologics -1.25% · Samsung C&T -4.48% · KB Financial -1.23%
Large decliners · POSCO Future M down over 8% · HD Hyundai Electric down over 7% · Doosan down over 7% · HD Hyundai Heavy Industries -6.84% · Doosan Enerbility -5.9% · Samsung Life -5.01% / KOSDAQ · Seojin System -9.24% · EcoPro BM -7.06% · EcoPro -5.96%
Advancers · ISC +8.53% · TSE +4.93% · EO Technics +2.03% · Jusung Engineering +0.4%
The semiconductor complex split internally · Large memory names fell around 4% · Among back-end equipment, foreign net-buying leaders included Jusung Engineering +KRW 29.5bn · Hanmi Semiconductor +KRW 16.8bn · Wonik IPS +KRW 16.7bn · On the same day, Hanmi Semiconductor unveiled five 2.5D packaging systems at SEMICON Taiwan 2026 in Taipei
Advancing-stock ratio · KOSPI 15.4% (140/912) · KOSDAQ 21.0% (366/1,744) · Numerator = advancers + limit-up names; denominator = all names including unchanged
KOSPI detail · Limit up 1 · Up 139 · Flat 37 · Down 735 · Limit down 0 / KOSDAQ detail · Limit up 7 · Up 359 · Flat 76 · Down 1,298 · Limit down 4
Industry returns are market-cap-weighted index moves, not net inflow amounts by industry
CHANGE / 05

Answers to yesterday's questions

Closing out yesterday's checkpoints with today's data
YESTERDAY → TODAY

All three questions from the previous session now have today's answer · Other-corporation buying remained above KRW 1tn, but the index fell 4% · Today's answer: the size of the support did not determine directionThe four-session divergence between the index sign and the advancing-stock ratio ended · But it ended with both pointing downU.S. 10Y yield and the September hike probability rose further · The factor that pressured the opening yesterday weighed on the full session today

01
Buying opposite Samsung Electronics · SK hynix
KRW 1.5914tn
→
KRW 1.5623tn
02
KOSPI
49.3%
→
15.4%
03
U.S. 10Y · September hike probability
4.758% · 62%
→
4.792% · 68%
CATALYST / 06

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries wage talks break down; phased partial strikes begin today

A company-specific variable layered on top of broad market weakness
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries · Sep. 2 close
-6.84%

Korean Metal Workers' Union HD Hyundai Heavy Industries branch begins strike Sep. 2 after negotiations break down

WHAT · Strike schedule

Starts Sep. 2 with a 7-hour partial strike by union officers and delegates · Phased rotating strikes through Sep. 10Normal operations on Sep. 3 and Sep. 7Four-hour partial strike by all union members announced for Sep. 15, before Chuseok

TERMS · Demands and process

KRW 149,600 monthly base-pay increase · 100% bonus increase · Share at least 30% of operating profit · Include vacation pay and congratulatory payments in · Expand new hiringNo agreement from the first formal meeting on Jun. 2 through the 18th main negotiation on Sep. 1 · Union rejected the company's proposalIndustrial-action vote · 95.93% approval among 5,607 voters

IMPACT · Production effect (interpretation)

Unlike an automotive assembly line, shipbuilding processes are distributed, so a partial strike does not immediately mean a full production haltIf participation broadens or logistics disruptions overlap, production schedules could be affected

MARKET · Market reaction

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries -6.84% · Shipbuilding TOP10 Index -6.29%, with all 10 constituents lowerToday's shipbuilding weakness was led first by broad risk aversion, with wage-talk pressure layered on top · The full stock decline should not be attributed to the strike (interpretation)

NEXT / 07

What to watch next session

Conditions that can actually be scored, not probabilities
Does joint foreign and institutional selling continue for another day?

A test of whether today's KRW 4tn selloff was only an overnight shock · Score it next session using the sign of foreign/institutional KOSPI net flows and the size of foreign net selling in SK hynix

Does the KOSPI advancing-stock ratio recover to 50%?

A test of whether internal breadth turns with the index on a rebound · Score both the advancing-stock ratio and KOSPI direction · If the index rises but breadth stays weak, other-corporation buying has again led the move

Do WTI USD 90 and the U.S. 10Y 4.8% level break higher, or reverse?

A test of whether today's downside catalysts cool overnight · Score WTI and the U.S. 10Y close after the Beige Book and Broadcom earnings · If both fall back below those levels, the opening burden eases

735 stocks fell · This was not just an index-level problem.

Full index · FX · yield · commodity data are on MARKETThe Daily keeps only the numbers needed to explain today's session.
MARKET ↗
Sources · data basis
Reference date Sep. 2, 2026 · KOSPI and KOSDAQ official close
Index open/high/low/close · market breadth · trading value · investor totals (retail/foreign/institutional) · program trading · cash/futures close · short selling · Korea Exchange (KRX) official close and Naver Finance
Intraday path · Naver Finance KOSPI/KOSDAQ intraday charts
Stock-level flows · Korea Exchange investor trading data at close · Collected Sep. 2 · Whole equity market basis
Other-corporation net buying total · Aggregated from closing-market reports · Consecutive-day count adds today's value to the prior-session record
Industries · Korea Exchange KRX Index 46 industry indices (KOSPI 24 · KOSDAQ 22) · Sep. 2 close
Themes · 39 official KRX theme indices · Sep. 2 close · Separate family from industry indices
August CPI · Statistics Korea · Released Sep. 2 at 08:00
KTB yields · Sep. 2 close · Yonhap closing table based on Yonhap Infomax data
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries wage talks and partial strike · Korean Metal Workers' Union HD Hyundai Heavy Industries branch and press reports · Strike schedule follows union notice and may change with subsequent negotiations
Hanmi Semiconductor SEMICON Taiwan 2026 · Company statement and press reports · Sep. 2-4, Taipei, Taiwan
Overseas indices · yields · commodities · FX · Sep. 1 U.S. close · press reports and Naver Finance · September hike probability based on CME FedWatch as of Sep. 1
U.S. August ADP private employment · Actual and revised July values from ADP Research · Market consensus of +47,000 from MarketWatch · Released Sep. 2 at 21:15 KST · Confirmed after this report's reference time
Broadcom earnings schedule · Company IR notice · After U.S. market close Sep. 2 ET · Earnings call 17:00 ET · 06:00 KST Sep. 3
U.S.-Iran military conflict · U.S. Central Command statements and press reports · Vessel nationality and crew information for tanker attacks based on Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries
China CXMT HBM3E production · The Information original report Aug. 31 · Korean reports Sep. 1 · Volume, yield and product-launch timing unconfirmed
Stock returns · Korea Exchange regular-session close · Some large-decliner figures preserve the precision shown in closing reports
USD/KRW · Domestic FX market 15:30 close · Closing-market reports
Calendar · U.S. releases converted from U.S. Eastern Time to Korea time · ECB hike expectation based on press reports
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