DAILY MARKET NOTE / 02 OCT 2026

Refiners and Defense Led
Back Above 7,000 After Five Sessions

KOSPI +0.46%to 7,003.74, a second straight gain · KOSDAQ topped 900 intraday at 903.88 before slipping -0.11%to 893.29Opened -0.47% · hit a 6,927.88 low just after the open · reached 7,011.04 around 15:10A Reuters report that Chinese refiners had halted fuel-product exports sent S-Oil +11.69% · SK Innovation +10.32% · KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ +4.66% · Samsung Electronics was flat · SK hynix +0.44%Foreign KOSPI cash flow was -KRW 144.0bn—a sixth straight session of net selling · KOSPI 200 futures +KRW 859.0bn net buying · institutions +KRW 381.0bn · advancer share 54.5%

Chips led yesterday. Today, refiners on China supply headlines and defense names on Middle East tensions moved to the front.

MARKET PATH / 01

Just 3.74 Points Above 7,000

Where the turn came—and where it stopped

BOTTOM LINEAfter a lower open, KOSPI chopped around through the morning and spent much of the afternoon in a tight range · it briefly cleared 7,000 late, slipped back below, then finished above the line in the closing auction

KOSPI · 09:00~15:30Opened 6,938.27 → low 6,927.88 just after the open → traded roughly 6,940–6,990 through the morning → high 7,011.04 around 15:10 → close 7,003.74

OPEN6,938.27-0.47%

LOW6,927.88-0.62%

HIGH7,011.04+0.57%

CLOSE7,003.74+0.46%

THE READ

The morning was directionless: the rebound around 09:20 was almost fully retraced by 10:30The afternoon was mostly range-bound · the breakout came only after 15:00KOSPI failed to hold the move above 7,000 through the end of continuous trading · the recovery was real, but the close was hardly comfortable

OPEN · MORNING

Opened -0.47%; Morning Range: 6,940–6,990

Opened at 6,938.27, 33.08 points below the prior close · low 6,927.88 just after the openNear 6,990 around 09:20 · back near 6,990 around 10:00Slid to around 6,940 by 10:30, back near the open

MIDDAY · AFTERNOON

Just Below 7,000 Around Noon; Tight Range in the Afternoon

11:00 hour: roughly 6,970–6,990 · late 6,990s around noon12:30–12:50: slipped back toward 6,97013:00–15:00: mostly 6,965–6,990

High Around 15:10; Close Set in the Auction

Day's high 7,011.04 around 15:10By the end of continuous trading at 15:20, KOSPI was back in the high 6,990s · settled at 7,003.74KOSPI turnover KRW 15.2907tn · 0.80× the five-session average

The line follows the KOSPI five-minute chart; horizontal position reflects actual time · only the four OHLC figures are treated as confirmed numbers · the low came just after the open and the high around 15:10 · dashed line = 7,000.

WHY / 02

Refiners Led on China Export-Halt Headlines

Why the Market Rose—and Why Chips Stalled

BOTTOM LINEReports that Chinese refiners had halted petroleum-product exports raised expectations of tighter gasoline and diesel supply in Asia · hopes for wider refining margins sent Korean refiners up more than 10% · chips barely moved despite gains in U.S. semiconductor stocks

Chinese Refiners Halt Fuel Exports; Refining-Margin Expectations Jump

Reuters reported that major Chinese refiners halted gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel exports outside Hong Kong and Macau until further notice · a separate report said any restart after the National Day holiday ends on Oct. 7 would depend on inventories and refinery runsFears of tighter Asian product supply lifted expectations for wider · Asian gasoline margins hit a record USD 50.53/bbl over Brent (Reuters)Crude rose too · Oct. 1 local close: December Brent USD 102.31/bbl · +4.37% · November WTI USD 92.87/bbl · +2.71% · reports of an additional U.S. carrier deployment to the Middle East added to supply concernsAt 10:28, S-Oil and SK Innovation were up +6.92% · +5.59%respectively; by the close, the gains had widened to +11.69% · +10.32%respectively

+11.69%S-Oil · close-to-close

SHOW EVIDENCE

Reported drivers of refiner strength · expectations for wider refining margins as product supply tightens, plus inventory valuation gains on crude and refined-product holdings

China backdrop · reports said diesel and kerosene inventories were roughly 20m barrels below pre-February levels, while gasoline stocks were about 9m barrels short of the level needed to normalize exports · PetroChina canceled several October gasoline and jet-fuel cargoes

GS was also up +2.64% that morning · refining subsidiary GS Caltex is unlisted

U.S. Yields Fell. Korean Chips Barely Moved.

Oct. 1 local close: U.S. 10-year 5.237%, down 5.6bp from 5.293% · PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index +1.59%Samsung Electronics 0.00% · SK hynix +0.44% · KRX Semiconductor Top 15 -0.81% · KRX AI Semiconductor -0.72%(13 of 20 constituents fell)After Semiconductor Top 15 gained +4.65% the prior session, today looked like a pause (interpretation) · market commentary said rate volatility could set direction until Samsung Electronics’ preliminary Q3 results, with ranges likely to stay limited without a clear catalyst

5.237%U.S. 10-year · Oct. 1 local close

SHOW EVIDENCE

5.237% is the CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index close · it rose as high as 5.342% intraday before falling back

Oct. 1 local close · Nasdaq +0.04% · S&P 500 +0.19% · Dow +0.04%

USD/KRW 1,350.6 · down KRW 7.8

The day's strongest moves were outside semiconductors.Lower U.S. yields and higher U.S. chip stocks did not translate into gains for Korean semiconductors · KOSPI itself rose only 0.46%

MONEY / 03

Foreigners Sold Cash for a Sixth Day, Bought KRW 859bn of Futures

Who moved the market today

BOTTOM LINEForeigners sold a modest amount of KOSPI cash but bought index futures heavily · individuals were the largest cash sellers, while Other Corporations were the largest buyers by arithmetic · Samsung Electronics and SK hynix appeared among institutions’ top buys and foreigners’ and individuals’ top sells, yet both closed around flat

FOREIGN · KOSPI CASH

-KRW 144.0bn

are included in total foreign flow · sixth straight net-selling session since Sep. 23 · the amount narrowed from -KRW 548.0bn to -KRW 144.0bnInstitutions +KRW 381.0bn · closing reports attributed the late index recovery to institutional buying · individuals -KRW 1.7210tn · by arithmetic, net bought roughly KRW 1.4tnStock-level rankings · SK hynix and Samsung Electronics were the No. 1 and No. 2 net sells for both foreigners and individuals; Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were the top two institutional net buys · Samsung Electro-Mechanics ranked first and SK Innovation second in foreign net buyingOn KOSDAQ, foreigners -KRW 173.0bn · institutions +KRW 94.0bn · individuals +KRW 82.0bn

KOSPI net buyersOther Corporations by arithmetic · Institutions

KOSPI net sellersIndividuals · Foreigners

FLOW DETAILS

Three main groups · foreigners -KRW 144.0bn · individuals -KRW 1.7210tn · institutions +KRW 381.0bn · KRX tally at 15:38, in KRW 1bn units · foreign total includes Other Foreigners · market-close reporting showed foreigners -KRW 136.7bn · individuals -KRW 1.7206tn · institutions +KRW 381.4bn (15:47)
Other Corporations are approximately +KRW 1.4840tn by arithmetic · not a directly reported figure; it is the residual after subtracting the three-group total of -KRW 1.4840tn from zero

Program total-KRW 97.0bn

Program non-arbitrage-KRW 211.2bn

KOSPI 200 futures · Foreigners+KRW 859.0bn

KOSPI 200 futures · Institutions-KRW 802.0bn

Program arbitrage +KRW 114.2bn · was -KRW 2.1060tn → -KRW 2.1457tn → -KRW 1.2581tn → -KRW 465.4bn → -KRW 211.2bn · fifth straight selling session · selling has shrunk for three consecutive sessions since peaking at -KRW 2.1457tn on Sep. 29 · KOSPI 200 futures individuals -KRW 6.0bn · futures figures are from the KRX 15:49 tally, in KRW 1bn units
Five-session total (Sep. 28–Oct. 2) · KOSPI foreigners -KRW 8.8730tn · institutions -KRW 948.0bn · individuals +KRW 1.7630tn · KOSPI 200 futures foreigners -KRW 778.0bn (KRX tally · KRW 1bn units)
Versus the previous session · total foreign flow -KRW 548.0bn → -KRW 144.0bn · institutions +KRW 335.0bn → +KRW 381.0bn · individuals -KRW 1.4310tn → -KRW 1.7210tn · all from the KRX 15:38 tally, in KRW 1bn units
Stock-level rankings are from KRX investor-by-stock data collected at 18:39 · after-hours trades may be included, so only rankings—not amounts—are used · S-Oil ranked fifth in foreign net buying
Buyback · Samsung Electronics’ planned repurchase window runs Aug. 24–Nov. 21 · planned amount roughly KRW 15tn · reports said about 90% had been completed by end-September · the Other Corporations residual again exceeded institutional net buying, but this note does not identify the counterparty without direct stock-level flow data
Short-selling turnover: SK hynix ranked first at KRW 261.1bn, Samsung Electronics second at KRW 108.3bn · SK hynix rose from KRW 147.7bn the previous day

SECTOR / 04

Where the Strength Was—and Wasn’t

Today’s distribution matters more than a ranking

BOTTOM LINERefiners, defense and secondary batteries led; biotech and semiconductors paused after the prior day’s surge · just over half of both KOSPI and KOSDAQ names advanced

Strength: refining/chemicals, defense and secondary batteries. Weakness: biotech/pharma and semiconductors.KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ +4.66%(all 10 constituents rose) · LIG Defense & Aerospace +5.25% · Hanwha Systems +5.07% · Hanwha Aerospace +3.68% · closing reports cited rising Middle East military tensions alongside news on the selection of a developer for the KF-21 guided-weapons systemKRX K-AI Secondary Battery +3.38% · LG Energy Solution +2.91%KOSPI's best-performing industry was Chemicals +3.32% · Metals +1.75% · Telecommunications +1.26% · Pharmaceuticals posted the biggest decline -2.46%After rising +9.46%the previous day, KRX K-AI BioTech KOSDAQ fell -3.04%(16 of 20 constituents fell) · Samsung Biologics -4.51%Advancer share: KOSPI 54.5% · KOSDAQ 55.1% · Mid Cap Index +0.91%outperformed the Large Cap Index +0.44%according to closing reports

STRONG

K-AI Defense TOP5+KRX Theme Index+4.66%

K-AI Secondary BatteryKRX Theme Index+3.38%

ChemicalsKOSPI Industry+3.32%

S-OilStock+11.69%

WEAK

K-AI BioTech KOSDAQKRX Theme Index-3.04%

PharmaceuticalsKOSPI Industry-2.46%

Semiconductor Top 15KRX Theme Index-0.81%

Samsung BiologicsStock-4.51%

Industry figures are KOSPI/KOSDAQ industry-index returns; themes are KRX theme-index returns; stocks are individual close-to-close moves. Because the methodologies differ, they are not ranked on one common scale.

SECTOR EVIDENCE

Versus the previous session · KOSPI Chemicals -1.12% → +3.32% · Semiconductor Top 15 +4.65% → -0.81% · K-AI BioTech KOSDAQ +9.46% → -3.04% · KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment +6.24% → -1.11% · KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10 -1.15% → +0.53%
Secondary batteries · KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10 +2.68% (all 10 constituents rose) · KRX Electric Vehicle Top 15 +1.52% · Biotech · KRX Technology Transfer Bio -2.40% · Bio TOP 10 -1.83% · KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals -1.36%
KOSDAQ industries · Telecommunications +3.01% · Financials +2.94% · Electrical & Electronics +2.06% · Non-Metals -3.50% · Distribution -2.52% · General Services -2.19%
Top 10 by market cap · Samsung Electronics 0.00% (KRW 276,000) · SK hynix +0.44% (KRW 1,841,000) · Samsung Electronics Pref. -1.71% · SK Square +0.43% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +1.28% · LG Energy Solution +2.91% · Hyundai Motor -0.72% · Samsung Biologics -4.51% · KB Financial Group +0.84% · Samsung Life Insurance +1.76%
By size · Mid Cap +0.91% · Large Cap +0.44% · Small Cap +0.39% (closing report)
Advance/decline counts · KOSPI: 1 limit-up · 500 up · 56 unchanged · 362 down · 0 limit-down · KOSDAQ: 4 limit-up · 958 up · 102 unchanged · 681 down · 0 limit-down
Advancer share · KOSPI 54.5% (501/919) · KOSDAQ 55.1% (962/1,745) · numerator = advancers plus limit-up names; denominator = all limit-up, up, unchanged, down and limit-down names
KOSDAQ turnover KRW 8.3527tn · 1.14× the five-session average
Industry returns are market-cap-weighted index moves, not net inflow amounts. A one-day move alone is not treated as proof of capital rotation.

CHANGE / 05

Answers to Yesterday’s Three Questions

Checking yesterday’s conditions against today’s close

BOTTOM LINETwo of yesterday’s three checks passed · the index and advancer share cleared their thresholds; foreign KOSPI cash has not yet turned positive

LAST SESSION → TODAY

Foreigners sold KOSPI cash for a sixth straight session, but the amount narrowed again to -KRW 144.0bn

KOSPI close · above 7,000

6,971.35

→

7,003.74

Foreign KOSPI cash · net buy/sell

-KRW 548.0bn

→

-KRW 144.0bn

KOSPI advancer share · above 50%

59.2%

→

54.5%

NEXT / 06

What to Watch Next Session

Three checks for the first session after a three-day break

Does KOSPI close above 7,000?

Judge it by the Oct. 6 close after Korea absorbs the weak U.S. jobs report and U.S. market moves during the holiday

Do S-Oil and SK Innovation rise for a second straight session?

Today: +11.69% · +10.32% · use the two closes to test whether the supply catalyst lasts beyond one day

Do foreigners turn net buyers in KOSPI cash?

Six straight sessions of net selling · today -KRW 144.0bn · futures have already flipped positive · judge it by the sign of total foreign cash flow, including Other Foreigners

A new set of leaders carried the recovery. Foreigners still sold KOSPI cash for a sixth straight session.

SOURCES · DATA BASIS

As of Oct. 2, 2026 · index, industry and individual-stock closes use the KRX regular session, 09:00–15:30 KST
Overseas news and indicators · updated through the U.S. September jobs report at 21:30 KST on Oct. 2
Domestic flows · KRX regular-session tally at 15:38 KST · after-market flows are not mixed in
Index levels · KOSPI open 6,938.27 · high 7,011.04 · low 6,927.88 · close 7,003.74 · KOSDAQ open 893.22 · high 903.88 · low 885.65 · close 893.29 · confirmed regular-session figures (collected in-house) · intraday highs and lows match the Block Media closing report
Intraday path · read from the KOSPI regular-session five-minute chart, with horizontal positions tied to actual timestamps · only the four OHLC figures are treated as confirmed numbers; all other levels are stated as approximate ranges
Investor totals · KRX tally at 15:38 KST · the closing figures and the explanation that late institutional buying lifted the index are from the MoneyToday closing report
Futures and program trading · KOSPI 200 futures investor flows from the KRX 15:49 tally · program trading from the regular-session close tally · five-session totals are based on KRX data
Stock-level rankings · KRX investor-by-stock flows collected at 18:39 · rankings only
Turnover · KOSPI KRW 15.2907tn · 0.80× the five-session average of KRW 19.2239tn · 15:38 tally
FX · USD/KRW 15:30 daytime-session close from the closing report
Short selling · stock-level short-selling turnover from the 15:38 regular-session tally (KRX + NXT combined)
Market breadth · KRX advance/decline counts collected at 16:10 · limit-up names are counted separately from ordinary advancers
Industries and themes · closing returns for KRX industry and theme indices · size-index returns from Economy Times · Hanwha Aerospace, S-Oil and SK Innovation closing moves from MoneyToday · LIG Defense & Aerospace and Hanwha Systems moves, plus the defense-sector catalyst, from MoneyToday closing analysis
Refining · the scope of China’s export halt (until further notice) and the Asian gasoline margin from Reuters syndication · post-holiday restart conditions from Reuters syndication (Business Recorder) · China inventories and PetroChina cargo cancellations from Financial News · Brent and WTI closes from EToday · 10:28 refiner moves, reports of the Middle East carrier deployment and the sector-strength explanation from Financial News stock report
Semiconductors · market outlook from NewsPim closing reportciting Daishin Securities · Samsung Electronics’ preliminary-results schedule from Good Morning Economy · MoneyTodayreporting citing KB Securities
Buyback · Samsung Electronics’ planned repurchase period, amount and reported progress from EBN report
Overseas · Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow, PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index and U.S. 10-year 5.237% (CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) use Oct. 1 local closes
Calendar · U.S. September jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics September Employment Situation release(Oct. 2, 08:30 local · 21:30 KST) · consensus +84k and the immediate post-release drop in yields from Yahoo Finance · the Oct. 5 substitute holiday from the Korea AeroSpace Administration 2026 calendar notice
Reference · Korea September CPI 2.9% (August 3.1%) · 08:00 KST before the open, from the Ministry of Data and Statistics release