DAILY MARKET NOTE / 01 OCT 2026

Down 1.07% Early,
Closed Near the High

KOSPI +1.95% to 6,971.35, rebounding after three straight declines · KOSDAQ rose +4.48% to 894.29Opened -0.34% · fell to 6,765.06 around 09:30, then recovered 206.29 points into the close · finished just 0.01 point below the day’s highMicron beat estimates on both results and next-quarter guidance, while September chip exports topped USD 60bn for the first time · Samsung Electronics +2.79% · SK hynix +3.21%Foreign KOSPI cash flow was -KRW 548.0bn, marking a fifth straight session of net selling, but the amount stayed below KRW 1tn · institutional flow was +KRW 335.0bn · advancer share 59.2%

Yesterday, an early rally faded. Today, an early selloff was fully reversed by the close.

MARKET PATH / 01

The Low Came Around 09:30. The Climb Took Hold After 11:30

Where the turn came—and where it stopped

BOTTOM LINEKOSPI fell more than 1% below the previous close just after the open, then climbed steadily from 11:30 and finished essentially at the day’s high.

KOSPI · 09:00~15:30Opened 6,814.49 → low 6,765.06 around 09:30 → climbed after 11:30 → closed 6,971.35, essentially the day’s high

OPEN6,814.49-0.34%

LOW6,765.06-1.07%

HIGH6,971.36+1.95%

CLOSE6,971.35+1.95%

THE READ

The morning selloff was over within the first 30 minutes · the market never retested the low set around 09:30The first rebound failed to hold above the previous close · the upward trend became established after 11:30Afternoon pullbacks were brief and each low was higher · turnover, however, stayed below the five-session average

OPEN · MORNING

Opened -0.34%; Low Around 09:30

Opened at 6,814.49, 23.55 points below the previous closeReached 6,765.06 around 09:30 · 72.98 points below the previous closeRecovered above the previous close near 6,840 around 10:00, then slipped back into the 6,810–6,850 range from roughly 10:15 to 11:00

MIDDAY · AFTERNOON

From 11:30 to a Break Above 6,950

Around 6,860 near 11:40 · around 6,900 near 12:40Reached roughly 6,930 at 13:15, then briefly eased toward 6,910 late in the 13:00 hourBroke above 6,950 at 14:20

Brief Pullback Around 15:00, Then a Near-High Close

Pulled back to around 6,930 near 15:00, then climbed back into the 6,960sClosed at 6,971.35 · just 0.01 point below the day’s high of 6,971.36KOSPI turnover KRW 16.6491tn · 0.84× the five-session average

The line follows KOSPI’s five-minute chart, with horizontal position tied to actual time. Only the open, high, low and close are confirmed numerical values; the low came around 09:30 and the high at the close.

WHY / 02

Good News Wasn’t Enough at the Open

What drove the rebound—and the weak open

BOTTOM LINEThe good numbers were already on the tape before the open, but rising U.S. yields weighed first. Once September chip exports were confirmed, semiconductors took over and pulled the index higher.

September Chip Exports Hit USD 60.3bn—and Both Price and Volume Rose

September exports totaled USD 120.94bn · +83.5% year on year, a record high · far above the +62.0% median in a Reuters pollSemiconductors USD 60.3bn · +263% · the first single export category to top USD 60bn · average daily exports overall also topped USD 5bn for the first time, at USD 5.63bnThe Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources cited continued growth in export volumes and contract prices · the DDR5 16Gb contract price rose from USD 37.5 in May to USD 48.0 in SeptemberFor Korea, both chip volumes and prices rose. For Micron, both revenue and next-quarter guidance moved higher.

+263%September chip exports · year on year

SHOW EVIDENCE

September imports USD 71.09bn · +26.0% · trade surplus USD 49.85bn

NAND contract price: USD 26.5 in May → USD 30.6 in September · January–September exports reached USD 814.5bn, already above last year’s full-year USD 709.3bn

Chip exports were up 259.4% year on year from Sep. 1–20 · full-month growth was +263%

A 5.3% U.S. Yield Overhang Lingered Into the Open

The U.S. 10-year closed Sep. 30 local time at 5.293%, up from 5.255% the day before · it reached 5.306% intraday, briefly moving above 5.3%Despite softer-than-expected August PCE inflation, long-term yields rose · Dow -0.86% · the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index was essentially flat · market-close reports also cited Treasury yields as a drag on Korea’s weak openThe 5%-plus yield backdrop was still there at the open, but intraday pricing increasingly favored semiconductors

5.293%U.S. 10-year · Sep. 30 local close

SHOW EVIDENCE

The 5.293% figure is the close of the CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index · intraday high 5.306%

Sep. 30 local session · Nasdaq +0.24% · S&P500 -0.25% · Dow -0.86% · PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index -0.004% · Micron reported after the regular-session close, so its results were not reflected in these closes

USD/KRW closed the daytime session at 1,358.4 · up 5.6 won

The low came 30 minutes after the export release.Micron’s results were already out before the open, and September exports were released at 09:00. Even with both positives on the tape, the index kept falling until around 09:30 before turning.

MONEY / 03

Prices Rebounded. Foreigners Still Sold for a Fifth Straight Session

Who moved the market today

BOTTOM LINEForeigners sold again, but by much less. Institutions flipped to net buying, while individuals sold more than KRW 1tn into the rally.

FOREIGN · KOSPI CASH

-KRW 548.0bn

included · fifth straight session of net foreign selling since Sep. 23 · the amount shrank from -KRW 2.0520tn to -KRW 548.0bn · five-session total -KRW 9.2390tnInstitutions +KRW 335.0bn · reports said they shifted from selling early to buying · individuals -KRW 1.4310tn · by arithmetic, were net buyers of roughly KRW 1.6tnProgram trading -KRW 465.4bn · fourth straight selling session, but less than half the previous day’s -KRW 1.2581tn Foreigners -KRW 108.0bn · sharply lower than the previous day’s -KRW 1.3080tnOn KOSDAQ, institutions bought +KRW 568.0bn · foreigners +KRW 228.0bn were also net buyers · individuals sold -KRW 776.0bn

KOSPI net buyersInstitutions · Other Corporations by arithmetic

KOSPI net sellersIndividuals · Foreigners

FLOW DETAILS

Three main groups · foreigners -KRW 548.0bn · individuals -KRW 1.4310tn · institutions +KRW 335.0bn · KRX tally at 15:38, in KRW 1bn units · foreign total includes Other Foreigners · market-close reporting showed foreigners -KRW 548.5bn · individuals -KRW 1.4306tn · institutions +KRW 334.5bn
Other Corporations are approximately +KRW 1.6440tn by arithmetic · not a directly reported figure; it is the residual after subtracting the three-group total of -KRW 1.6440tn from zero

Program total-KRW 482.4bn

Program non-arbitrage-KRW 465.4bn

KOSPI 200 futures · Foreigners-KRW 108.0bn

KOSPI 200 futures · Individuals+KRW 113.0bn

Program arbitrage -KRW 17.0bn · non-arbitrage: -KRW 2.1060tn → -KRW 2.1457tn → -KRW 1.2581tn → -KRW 465.4bn · KOSPI 200 futures institutions -KRW 23.0bn · futures figures are from the KRX 15:49 tally, in KRW 1bn units
Five-session total (Sep. 23–Oct. 1) · KOSPI foreigners -KRW 9.2390tn · institutions -KRW 1.0120tn · individuals +KRW 2.0440tn · KOSPI 200 futures foreigners -KRW 1.2490tn (KRX tally · KRW 1bn units)
Versus the previous session · total foreign flow -KRW 2.0520tn → -KRW 548.0bn · institutions -KRW 768.0bn → +KRW 335.0bn · individuals +KRW 1.1670tn → -KRW 1.4310tn · all from the KRX 15:38 tally, in KRW 1bn units
Buyback · Samsung Electronics’ planned repurchase window runs Aug. 24–Nov. 21 · planned amount roughly KRW 15tn · reports said about 90% had been completed by end-September · Other Corporations again showed a large residual purchase today, but this note does not identify the counterparty without stock-level flow data
Short-selling turnover: SK hynix ranked first at KRW 147.7bn, Samsung Electronics second at KRW 117.0bn · both were roughly half the previous day’s KRW 336.0bn and KRW 233.4bn

SECTOR / 04

Where the Strength Was—and Wasn’t

Today’s distribution matters more than a ranking

BOTTOM LINESemiconductors and biotech led, and gains were broad. Weakness sat in KOSPI chemicals, construction and parts of financials. Seven in ten KOSDAQ names rose.

Semiconductor equipment, AI chips and biotech led. KOSPI chemicals and high-dividend financials lagged.KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment +6.24% · KRX AI Semiconductor +6.01% · Semiconductor Top 15 +4.65% · KRX K-AI BioTech KOSDAQ +9.46%KOSPI’s best-performing industry was Medical & Precision Instruments +5.65% · the biggest decline was Chemicals -1.12% · Financials -0.13% · KB Financial Group -1.66%Advancer share: KOSPI 59.2% · KOSDAQ 70.6% · this was not a rally limited to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix · reports noted that KOSDAQ reclaimed 890 for the first time since July 1All 15 names in Semiconductor Top 15 rose · all 20 names in both AI Semiconductor and K-AI BioTech KOSDAQ rose · 160 of 178 KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment names advanced

STRONG

K-AI BioTech KOSDAQKRX Theme Index+9.46%

Machinery & EquipmentKOSDAQ Industry+6.24%

AI SemiconductorKRX Theme Index+6.01%

Leeno IndustrialStock+10.90%

WEAK

ChemicalsKOSPI Industry-1.12%

KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10Theme Index-1.15%

ConstructionKOSPI Industry-0.40%

KB Financial GroupStock-1.66%

Industry figures are KOSPI/KOSDAQ industry-index returns; themes are KRX theme-index returns; stocks are individual close-to-close moves. Because the methodologies differ, they are not ranked on one common scale.

SECTOR EVIDENCE

Versus the previous session · Semiconductor Top 15 +0.41% → +4.65% · Insurance -3.27% → -0.05% · Financials -1.40% → -0.13% · Secondary Battery TOP 10 +1.21% → +0.74%
KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment · Wonik IPS +9.13% · EO Technics +8.46% · HPSP +8.32% · Leeno Industrial +10.90% · secondary batteries: EcoPro +5.58% · EcoPro BM +5.13%
Biotech · KRX Technology Transfer Bio +5.44% · Bio TOP 10 +3.50% · KOSDAQ Pharmaceuticals +4.70% · KOSPI Pharmaceuticals +2.89%
Top 10 by market cap · Samsung Electronics +2.79% (KRW 276,000) · SK hynix +3.21% (KRW 1,833,000) · Samsung Electronics Pref. +4.76% · SK Square +1.40% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +3.17% · LG Energy Solution +0.98% · Hyundai Motor +1.16% · Samsung Biologics +2.73% · KB Financial Group -1.66% · Samsung Life Insurance +0.71%
One-day market-cap change · Samsung Electronics approximately +KRW 43.8tn · SK hynix approximately +KRW 41.6tn · calculated from KRX closing market caps and daily returns
Advance/decline counts · KOSPI: 0 limit-up · 542 up · 42 unchanged · 332 down · 0 limit-down · KOSDAQ: 2 limit-up · 1,230 up · 89 unchanged · 423 down · 0 limit-down
Advancer share · KOSPI 59.2% (542/916) · KOSDAQ 70.6% (1,232/1,744) · numerator = advancers plus limit-up names; denominator = all limit-up, up, unchanged, down and limit-down names
Industry returns are market-cap-weighted index moves, not net inflow amounts. A one-day move alone is not treated as proof of capital rotation.

CHANGE / 05

Answers to Yesterday’s Three Questions

Checking yesterday’s conditions against today’s close

BOTTOM LINEAll three conditions were met: both chip heavyweights rose, KOSPI closed above its open, and foreign selling stayed below KRW 1tn.

LAST SESSION → TODAY

All three conditions set yesterday were metForeign selling only shrank; it did not turn positive. The sign change came from institutions.

Samsung Electronics · SK hynix

-1.47% · +0.62%

→

+2.79% · +3.21%

Close − Open

-105.43p

→

+156.86p

Foreign KOSPI cash net flow

-KRW 2.0520tn

→

-KRW 548.0bn

CATALYST / 06

Micron: The Guide Mattered More Than the Quarter

What Korea’s memory stocks took from the U.S. print

BOTTOM LINEMicron beat estimates for the quarter just reported and guided next-quarter revenue nearly 8% above consensus. For Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, it is another read on the same memory cycle.

Micron · next-quarter revenue guide

USD 61.5bn

LSEG consensus USD 57.02bn · midpoint +7.9%

The Next-Quarter Guide Was the Bigger Signal

WHAT · Fiscal Q4 results

Revenue USD 54.23bn · adjusted EPS USD 33.42 · gross margin 87.0% · above both LSEG consensus (USD 51.07bn · USD 31.61) and company guidance (USD 50.0bn ±1.0bn · USD 31 ±1) · previous-quarter revenue USD 41.46bn

GUIDE · Next-quarter outlook

Revenue USD 61.5bn (±1.5bn) · midpoint 7.9% above LSEG consensus of USD 57.02bn · adjusted EPS USD 38.15 (±1.00), 7.8% above consensus of USD 35.40 · gross margin approximately 86.25%

VISIBILITY · Why this may last beyond one quarter

Micron expects memory and storage supply-demand conditions in 2027–2028 to be much tighter than in 2026 · 26 strategic customer agreements · covering more than 35% of expected revenue through 2030 · USD 32bn in customer financial commitments, mostly cash deposits

HBM · 2027 volume and pricing

By Micron’s own figures, most of its 2027 HBM supply volume is already contracted · pricing is materially higher year on year, narrowing the margin gap with conventional DRAM · these figures are separate from Samsung Electronics’ and SK hynix’s contract pricing

KOREA · What it means for Korean memory (interpretation)

The signal extends beyond HBM: data-center demand remains firm across server memory more broadly · that points in the same direction as Korea’s September chip exports, where both volumes and contract prices rose

BUT · Why didn’t Micron shares jump?

Both results and next-quarter guidance beat estimates, yet reports said the initial after-hours reaction was muted · next-quarter gross-margin guidance of about 86.25% is slightly below the 87.0% just reported · Micron said performance-based compensation costs embedded in Q4 inventory will flow through next quarter’s margins · another interpretation is that expectations were already elevated after the stock’s strong run this year

	Actual · Company Guide	LSEG Consensus
Fiscal Q4 RevenueUSD bn	54.23	51.07
Fiscal Q4 Adj. EPSUSD	33.42	31.61
Fiscal Q1 Revenue GuideUSD bn	61.5 ±1.5	57.02
Fiscal Q1 Adj. EPS GuideUSD	38.15 ±1	35.40

REVENUE BY BUSINESS UNIT

Core Data Center Business Unit revenue USD 18.00bn · previous quarter USD 11.52bn · more than 11× the year-ago USD 1.58bn · Cloud Memory Business Unit USD 16.28bn (previous quarter USD 13.77bn)

NEXT / 07

What to Watch Next Session

Can the chip rebound hold into the final session before a three-day break?

Does KOSPI close above 7,000?

Today: 6,971.35 · 28.65 points to go · judge it by whether the close retakes 7,000 after falling below that level on Sep. 28

Do foreigners turn net buyers in KOSPI cash?

Five straight sessions of net selling · today -KRW 548.0bn · judge it by the sign of total foreign flow, including Other Foreigners

Does KOSPI’s advancer share stay above 50% for a second day?

Today: 59.2% · use breadth to test whether the chip rebound is spreading through the broader market

The market opened lower despite good numbers. By the close, chips—not a 5.3% Treasury yield—had won the day.

SOURCES · DATA BASIS

As of Oct. 1, 2026 · index, industry and individual-stock closes use the KRX regular session, 09:00–15:30 KST
Overseas news and indicators · updated through the release of the U.S. September ISM Manufacturing Index
Domestic flows · KRX regular-session tally at 15:38 KST · after-market flows are not mixed in
Index levels · KOSPI open 6,814.49 · high 6,971.36 · low 6,765.06 · close 6,971.35 · KOSDAQ open 853.96 · high 894.29 · low 851.92 · close 894.29 · confirmed regular-session closes (collected in-house)
Intraday path · read from the KOSPI regular-session five-minute chart, with horizontal positions tied to actual timestamps · only the four OHLC figures are treated as confirmed numbers; all other levels are stated as approximate ranges
Investor totals · KRX tally at 15:38 KST and the Global Economic closing report · the same article is cited for the reported institutional shift to buying
Futures and program trading · KOSPI 200 futures investor flows from the KRX 15:49 tally · program trading from the regular-session close tally · five-session totals are based on KRX data
Turnover · KOSPI KRW 16.6491tn · 0.84× the five-session average of KRW 19.8328tn · 15:38 tally
FX · USD/KRW 15:30 daytime-session close from the closing report
Short selling · stock-level short-selling turnover from the 15:38 regular-session tally (KRX + NXT combined)
Market breadth · KRX advance/decline counts collected at 16:10 · limit-up names are counted separately from ordinary advancers
Industries and themes · closing returns for KRX industry and theme indices · KOSDAQ stock moves and the return above 890 are cited from Global Economic · Korea Duty Free News · the weak-open context is cited from NewDaily
Previous domestic session · Sep. 30 KOSPI close 6,838.04 · open 6,943.47 · total foreign flow -KRW 2.0520tn · institutions -KRW 768.0bn · individuals +KRW 1.1670tn (KRX 15:38 tally)
Micron · results, next-quarter guidance and business-unit revenue from the Micron IR release · fiscal Q4 and next-quarter consensus figures use a single Reuters report (LSEG consensus) source throughout · supply-demand outlook, customer agreements, HBM and margin commentary from Micron’s prepared remarks · after-hours reaction cited from Benzinga
Exports · September trade data and DDR5/NAND contract prices from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources release · consensus median from the Reuters poll (Sep. 28)
Buyback · Samsung Electronics’ planned repurchase period, amount and reported progress from an EBN report
Overseas · Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow, PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index and U.S. 10-year 5.293% (CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) use Sep. 30 local closes · ISM Manufacturing cited from FXStreet
Calendar · U.S. September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar (Oct. 2, 08:30 local time) · Korea September CPI from the Ministry of Data and Statistics release calendar (Oct. 2, 08:00 KST) · the Oct. 5 substitute holiday is based on the Korea AeroSpace Administration 2026 calendar notice