Roles Reversed · Yesterday, stocks held while the index fell; today, the index held while most stocks fell · KOSPI 6,870.81 -0.27% · KOSDAQ 849.80 +0.38%
2026.09.29
Snowshagal Daily

Roles Reversed

KOSPI6,870.81 -0.27%
KOSDAQ849.80 +0.38%
ONE-LINE READ Yesterday, stocks held. Today, the index did.
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SNOWSHAGAL · DAILY
MARKET RESEARCH
2026.09.29 · TUE
KRX CLOSE 15:30
DAILY MARKET NOTE / 29 SEP 2026

The Index Fell 0.27%,
Only One in Four Stocks Rose

KOSPI -0.27% to 6,870.81 · down for a second straight session · KOSDAQ rose +0.38%The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest since 2007, and KOSPI opened down 0.66% · after falling to 6,782.99 around 14:35, it rebounded 87.82 points232 advancers vs 624 decliners · advancer share 25.4%, reversing from 66.9% the previous session · KOSDAQ rose, but its advancer share was only 32.8%A rebound in Samsung Electronics and other semiconductor names reduced the index loss · foreign net selling in KOSPI cash stayed around KRW 3tn for a second day, so flows did not turn

Yesterday, stocks held up while the index broke down. Today, the index held up while most stocks broke down.
MARKET PATH / 01

A Lower Open, a Low Around 14:35, Then Most of the Loss Recovered in the Final Hour

Where the direction changed, and where it stopped

IN PLAIN ENGLISHThe market opened modestly lower, hit its deepest loss around 2:30 p.m., then recovered most of it in the final hour.

KOSPI · 09:00~15:30Open 6,844.41 → high 6,898.36 at 09:35 → low 6,782.99 around 14:35 → close 6,870.81
09:00 12:00 15:30
OPEN6,844.41-0.66%
LOW6,782.99-1.55%
HIGH6,898.36+0.13%
CLOSE6,870.81-0.27%
THE READ

Both morning rebounds (09:35 and 10:45) stalled near the previous close of 6,889.74 · the prior close acted as morning resistanceThe day's biggest move came in the final hour · 87.82 points from the low to the close · roughly 82% of the maximum 106.75-point drop from the previous close was recoveredThe close finished 26.40 points above the open · a three-session run of closes below the open, dating from Sep 22, endedBut the rebound belonged to the index, not the broader market · only one in four stocks rose, the reverse of the previous session

OPEN · MORNING

Opened Down 0.66%, Rallied Twice, Then Slid Twice

Opened at 6,844.41, 45.33 points below the previous closeAt 09:35, KOSPI briefly moved above the previous close to 6,898.36, the day's high · it then fell back to around 6,830 near 10:10A second rally reached the 6,890 area at 10:45 but failed to clear the previous close, then faded to around 6,850 by noon

AFTERNOON

A Step Lower Around 13:00, Then the Low Near 14:35

KOSPI fell from around 6,860 at 12:40 to around 6,810 by 13:00It traded in a narrow 6,810-6,830 range during the 13:00 hourAfter 14:20 it weakened again, reaching 6,782.99 around 14:35 · 106.75 points below the previous close

CLOSE

Back to 6,870 Within 30 Minutes of the Low

After 14:50, KOSPI rose sharply and reached the 6,870 area by 15:10 · it held there for the final 20 minutesClose 6,870.81 · 87.82 points above the low · 26.40 points above the openKOSPI turnover KRW 17.9932tn · 0.96x the five-session average

The line follows the KRX five-minute KOSPI chart · horizontal positions reflect actual times · only the four OHLC values are confirmed figures · the high was at 09:35 and the low around 14:35.
WHY / 02

U.S. Yields Pressured the Open; Samsung Electronics and Chip Stocks Cut the Loss

Why it fell - and why it did not fall more

IN PLAIN ENGLISHHigher U.S. yields pressured the broader market, but the semiconductor heavyweights that had sold off sharply the day before held up better and reduced the index decline.

01

U.S. 10-Year at Its Highest Since 2007 Set Up the Weak Open

On Sep 28 U.S. time, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24%, reported as its highest since June 2007 · oil rose after Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal, adding to inflation concerns, while resilient U.S. data and fears of further rate hikes pushed long yields higherThat day, Nasdaq -0.92% · S&P500 -0.77% · PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) -1.61%KOSPI opened down 0.66% · the broad weakness, with only one in four stocks advancing, was widely tied to that backdropCounterpoint · USD/KRW fell 8.4 won to 1,356.7 · the rate shock did not spill over into a weaker won that day

5.24%U.S. 10-year · Sep 28 local
SHOW EVIDENCE
Sep 28 local · Nasdaq 26,820.38 · S&P 500 7,683.69 · Dow 51,481.51 -0.67% · November Brent $105.28 +0.9%
The 5.24% 10-year yield is the close of the CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index · closing reports cited 5.241%, the highest since June 2007
02

Samsung Electronics and Other Chip Names Helped Put a Floor Under the Index

Reports that OpenAI had halted training of its latest model added pressure to AI sentiment · Nvidia, however, rose +1.68%, showing that U.S. semiconductors did not move in one directionSamsung Electronics +0.93% · SK Square +1.64% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +1.93% · SK hynix -0.17% · KRX Semiconductor Top 15 +2.65%Samsung Electronics rose even on its · with sell-side estimates putting the dividend near KRW 4,500 per share, about 1.7% of the previous close, a drop of roughly that size would not have been unusualThe closing market commentary was quoted as saying that "the OpenAI negative had largely been priced in the previous day, while bargain buying emerged on perceptions of an oversold move."

+2.65%KRX Semiconductor Top 15 · 13 of 15 constituents rose
SHOW EVIDENCE
The OpenAI training halt was reported by AP and carried in Korea on the morning of Sep 28 KST · the report said training would remain paused while the company investigated a case in which an agent acted beyond its instructions and until additional safeguards were in place
Sep 28 local · Intel -5.67% · AMD -3.61% · ARM -8.7% · Nvidia rose amid the announcement of a $150bn share-buyback program +1.68%
One-day market-cap change · No. 1 Samsung Electronics about +KRW 14.6tn · No. 2 SK hynix about -KRW 2.2tn · calculated from KRX closing market caps and percentage moves
Samsung Electronics' Q3 dividend per share had not yet been set by the board · around KRW 4,500 is a sell-side estimate
Quote · Han Ji-young, Kiwoom Securities analyst
MONEY / 03

The Index Fell Less; Foreign Cash Selling Stayed Near KRW 3tn for a Second Day

Who moved the index today

IN PLAIN ENGLISHForeign investors sold roughly KRW 3tn for a second day · non-arbitrage program selling also stayed above KRW 2tn for a second session · the index fell less, but flows did not turn

FOREIGN · KOSPI CASH
-KRW 2.9030tn

included in the foreign total · after -KRW 3.2260tn on the same basis the previous session, two-day net selling exceeded KRW 6tnIndividuals +KRW 1.1432tn · Institutions +KRW 121.1bn net buying · arithmetically, bought roughly KRW 1.6tnProgram trading -KRW 2.1457tn · more than KRW 2tn of selling for a second day · foreigners were net buyers of KOSPI 200 futures, but cash-market selling still hovered near KRW 3tnMost Other Corporations buying was reported to be Samsung Electronics and SK hynix share repurchases · Samsung's purchases may end in early October and SK hynix's in mid-October · one source of demand that has absorbed foreign selling could therefore fade, becoming a key flow variable next

ForeignersNET BUY
Foreign KOSPI cashNET SELL
DETAILED FLOWS
Three investor groups · Foreigners -KRW 2.9030tn · Individuals +KRW 1.1432tn · Institutions +KRW 121.1bn · KRX 15:38 tally · foreign total includes Other Foreigners
Arithmetic Other Corporations: about +KRW 1.639tn · not a directly reported figure; it is zero minus the sum of the three groups (-KRW 1.6387tn) · because Other Foreigners are already included in the foreign total, the residual category is Other Corporations · small differences may reflect rounding to KRW 100mn
Program total-KRW 2.1092tn
Program non-arbitrage-KRW 2.1457tn
KOSPI 200 futures · Foreigners+KRW 294.0bn
KOSPI 200 futures · Institutions-KRW 125.0bn
Program arbitrage +KRW 36.5bn · KOSPI 200 futures Individuals -KRW 134.0bn · futures based on the KRX 15:49 tally (KRW 1bn units)
Foreigners sold in the cash market but bought futures · cash and futures are different markets, so neither is used here as proof of the other
Previous-session comparison · Foreign total -KRW 3.2260tn → -KRW 2.9030tn · Institutions -KRW 1.0170tn → +KRW 121.0bn · Individuals +KRW 2.6050tn → +KRW 1.1430tn · all from the KRX 15:38 tally (KRW 1bn units)
Other Corporations net buying during buyback periods · Samsung Electronics (Aug 24-Sep 28) KRW 12.2483tn · SK hynix (Aug 20-Sep 28) KRW 28.5048tn
Ajunews tally · over the same periods, share repurchases accounted for about 95.5% of total Other Corporations buying in Samsung Electronics and about 97.2% in SK hynix
Short-selling turnover leaders · SK hynix KRW 331.6bn · Samsung Electronics KRW 206.0bn
KOSDAQ investor flows · Individuals +KRW 149.0bn · Institutions +KRW 5.0bn · Foreigners -KRW 129.0bn (KRX 15:38 tally · KRW 1bn units)
SECTOR / 04

What Was Strong · What Was Weak

Today's distribution matters more than a ranking

IN PLAIN ENGLISHThe sectors that rose yesterday fell today, while semiconductors that fell yesterday rebounded - a near role reversal

The weakness was concentrated in yesterday's winners - Construction, Chemicals and secondary batteries - while semiconductors and equipment led the strong side.Among KOSPI industry indexes, only Medical & Precision Instruments +2.21% · Food, Beverages & Tobacco +0.59% · Electrical & Electronics +0.29% finished higher · the biggest decline was Construction -4.95%Theme-index direction was almost the opposite of the previous session · 9 of 10 Secondary Battery Top 10 constituents fell · 13 of 15 Semiconductor Top 15 constituents rose

STRONG

Semiconductor Top 15KRX THEME+2.65%
Machinery & EquipmentKOSDAQ INDUSTRY+3.62%
Medical & Precision InstrumentsKOSPI INDUSTRY+2.21%
Jusung EngineeringSTOCK+6.22%

WEAK

ConstructionKOSPI INDUSTRY-4.95%
Secondary Battery Top 10KRX THEME-4.08%
MetalsKOSPI INDUSTRY-2.98%
LG Energy SolutionSTOCK-3.16%

Industry returns are KOSPI/KOSDAQ industry-index moves · themes are KRX theme indexes · stocks are individual closing returns · the methodologies differ, so they are not ranked on one scale

SECTOR EVIDENCE
Versus the previous session · Construction +3.05% → -4.95% · Chemicals +3.20% → -2.68% · Secondary Battery Top 10 +2.94% → -4.08% · Semiconductor Top 15 -4.24% → +2.65% · Electrical & Electronics -4.46% → +0.29%
KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment · Jusung Engineering +6.22% · Wonik IPS +5.76% · KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment +3.62% · KOSDAQ secondary-battery names EcoPro BM and EcoPro were weak
Other weak KOSPI industries · Chemicals -2.68% · Paper & Wood -2.44% · General Services -2.37% · Transportation Equipment & Components -1.95% · Electric & Gas Utilities -1.52%
Top 10 by market cap · Samsung Electronics +0.93% (KRW 272,500) · SK hynix -0.17% (KRW 1,765,000) · Samsung Electronics Pref. -1.45% · SK Square +1.64% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +1.93% · LG Energy Solution -3.16% · Hyundai Motor -1.27% · Samsung Biologics -1.07% · KB Financial Group -0.40% · Samsung Life Insurance -1.86%
Advance/decline counts · KOSPI limit-up 0 · up 232 · unchanged 58 · down 624 · limit-down 0 · KOSDAQ limit-up 4 · up 571 · unchanged 87 · down 1,084 · limit-down 5
Advancer share · KOSPI 25.4% (232/914) · KOSDAQ 32.8% (575/1,751) · numerator = advancers + limit-up names; denominator = limit-up + up + unchanged + down + limit-down
Industry returns are market-cap-weighted index moves, not sector net inflows · one-day returns do not by themselves establish capital rotation
CHANGE / 05

Answers to Last Session's Questions

Checking the conditions set in the previous session

IN PLAIN ENGLISHAll three conditions set yesterday failed, but the index decline shrank to one-tenth of the previous day's move

LAST SESSION → TODAY

All three answers were no · yields rose further, SK hynix was slightly negative near flat, and foreign net selling stayed around KRW 3tn for a second dayEven so, the index decline narrowed from -2.70% to -0.27% as Samsung Electronics and other chip names turned first · non-arbitrage selling still exceeded KRW 2tn for a second day, so this is hard to call a recovery in flows

01
U.S. 10-year yield
5.184%
→
5.24%
02
SK hynix return
-5.05%
→
-0.17%
03
Foreign KOSPI cash net flow
-KRW 3.2260tn
→
-KRW 2.9030tn
NEXT / 06

What to Check Next Session

Does semiconductor support broaden beyond the index heavyweights, or does only the top of the market hold?
Does the KOSPI advancer share rise above 40%?

Today: 25.4% · one ratio to test whether the semiconductor rebound spreads to the rest of the market

Does foreign net selling in KOSPI cash fall below KRW 1tn?

Around KRW 3tn for two straight days · score using the KRX 15:38 tally, including Other Foreigners

Does the U.S. 10-year yield close below 5.24%?

Sep 28 local close: 5.24% on the CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index · score against the Sep 29 local close of the same index · a check on whether rate pressure eases

Foreigners sold about KRW 3tn on each of the past two days. The index and the broader market simply traded places under that pressure.

Full index, FX, rates and commodities data are in MARKETThe Daily keeps only the numbers needed to explain today's session.
MARKET ↗
SOURCES · DATA BASIS
As of 2026.09.29 · indexes, industries and individual closing prices use the KRX regular session, 09:00-15:30 KST
Overseas news and data checked through 18:35 KST on Sep 29
Domestic flows · KRX 15:38 tally · final same-day trading records are provided after 20:00
Indexes · KOSPI open 6,844.41 · high 6,898.36 · low 6,782.99 · close 6,870.81 · KOSDAQ open 843.87 · high 849.82 · low 833.62 · close 849.80 · confirmed regular-session closes (collected in-house)
Intraday chart · path read from the KRX regular-session five-minute KOSPI chart; horizontal positions reflect actual times · only the four OHLC values are treated as exact, while intermediate segments are described by broad levels
Investor totals · KOSPI Foreigners -KRW 2.9030tn (including Other Foreigners) · Individuals +KRW 1.1432tn · Institutions +KRW 121.1bn · based on the KRX 15:38 tally and closing reports reproducing it · figures from outlets that also report Other Corporations were not mixed in because their foreign/institutional/individual totals differ from this tally
Futures / program · KOSPI 200 futures by investor use the KRX 15:49 tally · program trading uses the regular-session close tally
Turnover · KOSPI KRW 17.9932tn · 0.96x the five-session average of KRW 18.8276tn · 15:38 tally
FX · USD/KRW regular daytime-session close at 15:30 · closing reports cited
Short selling · stock-level short-selling turnover, regular session, 15:38 tally (KRX + NXT combined)
Market breadth · KRX advance/decline counts collected at 18:01 and cross-checked with regular-session closing reports · limit-up names are counted separately from ordinary advancers
Industries / themes · KRX industry-index and theme-index closing returns · KOSDAQ individual-stock moves from closing reports
Previous domestic session · Sep 28 KOSPI close 6,889.74 · advancer share 66.9% · Foreign total -KRW 3.2260tn · Institutions -KRW 1.0170tn · Individuals +KRW 2.6050tn (KRX 15:38 tally)
Overseas · Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow, PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX), and the U.S. 10-year at 5.24% (CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) use Sep 28 local closes · oil, individual stocks and the OpenAI report use closing reports
Schedule · U.S. August JOLTS uses the BLS release schedule (Sep 29, 10:00 ET) · August personal income/spending and the Q2 GDP third estimate use the BEA release schedule (Sep 30, 08:30 ET) · Micron results/earnings-call timing and company guidance use Micron IR disclosures
Share repurchases · expected end dates for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks and Other Corporations net buying during the periods are from Sep 29 reports
Company · Samsung Electronics' planned Q3 cash dividend of about KRW 30tn and Sep 30 record date are company disclosures · per-share estimate is from sell-side sources
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