Waiting for the Fed, a Narrow Rebound · The index rose, but only one in three stocks advanced · KOSPI 6,717.97 +1.37% · KOSDAQ 815.98 +0.44%
2026.09.16
Snowshagal Daily
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Waiting for the Fed,A Narrow Rebound

TODAY IN ONE LINE The index rose, but only one in three stocks advanced
KOSPI6,717.97 +1.37%
KOSDAQ815.98 +0.44%
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SNOWSHAGAL · DAILY
MARKET RESEARCH
2026.09.16 · WED
KRX CLOSE 15:30
DAILY MARKET NOTE / 16 SEP 2026

Waiting for the Fed,
A Narrow Rebound

KOSPI +1.37% · KOSDAQ +0.44% · Rebound after four straight down sessionsSemiconductors led the recovery from the morning · the 14:31 report of talks with Intel added fresh momentum in the final stretchOnly 304 of 918 counted stocks advanced · semiconductors were the one axis lifting the indexThe Fed decision is due at 03:00 KST on Sep. 17 · this was the last domestic session before the decision

An index rising and the market rising are not the same thing.
MARKET PATH / 01

Day's low just after the open, day's high in the closing auction

When did the direction change, and what was working then?
KOSPI · 09:00~15:306,611.24 open → 6,598.87 before 09:05 → around 6,713 near 13:05 → 6,717.97 close
6,720 6,680 6,640 6,600 Previous close 6,627.26 09:00 12:00 15:30
OPEN6,611.24-0.24%
LOW6,598.87-0.43%
HIGH6,717.97+1.37%
CLOSE6,717.97+1.37%
THE READ

The low just after the open reflected the overnight decline in U.S. indexes · direction began to turn immediately afterwardThe morning recovery was driven by semiconductor buying after four down sessions · the path through 14:30 had already been formed before the afternoon report of talksThe index rose, but advancers were only a little more than half the number of decliners · do not read a higher index as a broad market advanceHigh and close were identical · the final late-session push became the day's high

OPEN · MORNING

Opened lower, hit the day's low within five minutes

Opened 16.02 points below the previous closeThe slide to 6,598.87 just after the open marked the day's low · direction reversed immediately afterwardBy around 09:50, it had recovered to roughly 55 points above the previous close

MIDDAY

11:00 pullback, rising again from noon

Around 11:00, the index briefly slipped back below the previous closeIt climbed again after noon to around 6,713 near 13:05This entire stretch came before the afternoon report of talks · the path was built purely by retracing prior losses

AFTERNOON · CLOSE

Afternoon range, then another late-session rise

From 13:30 onward, it moved within roughly 6,670–6,700The report of talks arrived at 14:31 · the slope visibly steepened after 15:00, and the closing auction set the day's highKOSPI turnover KRW 15.855tn · KOSDAQ was only +0.44% over the same session, a much smaller move

Closing-price path read from the KRX regular-session 5-minute chart · open, low, high and close are final closing values; high and close were identical · the high through the final 5-minute bar was around 6,714, with the final close set in the closing auction after 15:20.
WHY / 02

Semiconductor buying after four down sessions drove the morning recovery; the Intel talks report added momentum in the afternoon

Only the factors that actually explained the day's direction
01

The morning recovery was driven by semiconductor buying after four down sessions; SK hynix's early strength coincided with approval of its revised wage-and-collective-bargaining agreement

After four straight declines from Sep. 10 through Sep. 15 · the rate and oil pressures behind the previous afternoon's selloff eased a notch during Korean trading hoursAt 09:09, news that SK hynix's revised wage-and-collective-bargaining agreement had been approved hit the tape, and the stock was strong from early in the sessionSK hynix +4.08% · Samsung Electronics +2.01% · KOSPI Electrical & Electronics +2.81% · KRX Semiconductor Top 15: 14 of 15 constituents advancedInstitutions and other corporations were on the other side

+3.66%KRX Semiconductor Top 15 · Theme index
View evidence
Same-direction stocks · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +4.86% · Samsung Electronics Pref. +4.01% · SK Square +2.00% · Samsung C&T +1.87%
KOSDAQ · Electrical & Electronics +1.58% · Machinery & Equipment +2.24% · Chemicals +1.70%
Among the KOSPI's top 10 by market cap, only Hyundai Motor -1.36% and Samsung Biologics -0.21% declined
Theme indexes · KRX K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+ +3.54%: all 10 constituents rose · KRX AI Semiconductor +3.13%: 18 of 20 constituents rose
The path to around 6,713 near 13:05 was already in place before the afternoon report of talks
02

The 14:31 report that SK hynix and Intel were discussing U.S. memory production provided additional momentum in the final stretch

Reuters reported it at 01:31 local time on Sep. 16, 14:31 KST · the morning advance and the 13:00-area high predated the report, so it is not treated as the cause of the whole day's moveOptions mentioned as under consideration included leasing part of Intel's Ohio production facilities and forming a joint venture with Intel and major customersThe company said it is reviewing multiple options, including additional production sites, and that nothing has been decided at this stage · this was a report of talks, not a contract — overseas production is subject to review under Korea's Industrial Technology Protection Act · approval remains an unresolved variable

3% range → 4% rangeSK hynix gain · widened around 15:00
View evidence
Options cited in the report · lease part of Intel's Ohio production facilities · establish a joint venture with Intel and major cloud customers · equity structure, investment size and timing not finalized
SK hynix is building a $4bn high-bandwidth-memory back-end facility in Indiana · domestically, KRW 54.3tn of investment is underway in Cheongju and Yongin
The index did not rise immediately after the report · the slope steepened after 15:00 · SK hynix's gain also widened from the 3% range to the 4% range around 15:00
03

U.S. indexes fell for a second straight session overnight, but semiconductors had already diverged, while rate and oil pressures eased a notch during Asian trading

Sep. 15 local time · Nasdaq -0.78% · S&P500 -0.45% · Dow -0.63% · in the same session, was +0.40%, moving in the opposite direction hit 5.041% intraday on Sep. 15 local time, again the highest since 2007, but closed below 5%The 10-year yield did not rise further from its Sep. 15 local close of 4.996%, while WTI retreated to $103–104 during the Korean session · the two pressures behind the previous afternoon's selloff both easedThe counterpoint was FX · USD/KRW rose for a fifth straight session to 1,368.6

+0.40%Philadelphia Semiconductor Index · Sep. 15 local time
View evidence
Sep. 15 local oil · WTI +4.38% to $105.83 · Brent +2.9% to $108.75 · Middle East tensions were cited as the catalyst
U.S. 10Y Sep. 15 local close 4.996% · previous session 4.961% · intraday high 5.041%
Sep. 16 KST · the 10-year yield did not move above the previous close · WTI in the $103–104 range · both are overseas intraday values and vary by reference time
VIX was 17.20 on Sep. 15 local time
25bp federal funds rate hike probability 94.5% · one month earlier 33.1% · CME FedWatch snapshot as of Sep. 15 local time
USD/KRW intraday high 1,372.9 · Hana Bank 15:30 reference rate 1,368.90 · previous session 1,359.20
MONEY / 03

Foreigners sold the rising semiconductor names; institutions and other corporations took the other side

Who moved today's index
FOREIGN · KOSPI CASH
-KRW 1.6808tn

Foreign net selling · sixth straight sessionSamsung Electronics and SK hynix, today's index leaders, ranked at the top of both foreign net selling and institutional net buying · sellers and price direction divergedForeigners were net buyers in KOSPI 200 futures, the opposite direction · cash and futures flows diverged within the same day · direction noted only, not broadened into a bullish-bet interpretation

Foreign net selling · No. 1 and No. 2Samsung Electronics · SK hynix
Institutional net buying · No. 1 and No. 2Samsung Electronics · SK hynix
Program trading · futures · cumulative flows
KOSPI Total-KRW 1.2690tn
Program trading-KRW 1.3142tn
Arbitrage program+KRW 45.2bn
KOSPI turnoverKRW 15.855tn
Non-arbitrage program trading -KRW 1.3142tn · yet the index closed at the day's high · by investor category, institutions and other corporations were net buyers
Program trading is an order method; investor-by-investor data classify market participants · they are different data series, so one is not treated as the counterparty to the other
Futures · foreigners net buyers · institutions and retail net sellers
Five-session cumulative, Sep. 10–16 · direct sum of the same closing-report series · foreigners -KRW 11.3398tn · institutions -KRW 1.6537tn · retail +KRW 4.8636tn
KOSDAQ by investor · institutions and retail net buyers · foreigners net sellers · all three flows were only in the tens of billions of won
KOSPI volume 197.7m shares
SECTOR / 04

Where strength and weakness sat

The distribution of today's winners and losers, rather than a ranking table

Strength was narrowly concentrated in semiconductors, and only four of 24 KOSPI industries advanced.Semiconductors did not rise only at the index level · 14 of 15 constituents in KRX Semiconductor Top 15 advanced · KOSPI also rose broadly, with 49 advancers versus 29 decliners among 84 stocksThe broader market moved the other way · 304 KOSPI stocks rose while 578 fellNo common same-day catalyst was identified that explains Construction -2.37% · IT Services -2.16% · Entertainment & Culture -1.67% togetherFood, Beverage & Tobacco -0.85% · Orion -3.97% · Nongshim -2.57% remained under pressure from the recent KRW strength lowering earnings expectations · USD/KRW, however, rebounded +9.2 won todayThe secondary-battery complex, strong in the previous session, reversed lower after one day · KRX K-AI Secondary Battery -1.37% · KRX Secondary Battery TOP 10 -0.93%KOSDAQ Telecommunications -4.09% has only nine constituents, so single-stock moves weigh heavily on the index

STRONG

KRX Semiconductor Top 15Theme+3.66%
KRX K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+Theme+3.54%
Electrical & ElectronicsKOSPI industry+2.81%
Electrical & ElectronicsKOSDAQ industry+1.58%

WEAK

KRX Game TOP 10Theme-2.67%
ConstructionKOSPI industry-2.37%
IT ServicesKOSPI industry-2.16%
KRX Shipbuilding TOP10Theme-1.89%
Industry evidence
Of 46 KRX industry indexes, 13 rose and 33 fell · KOSPI: 4 of 24 rose · KOSDAQ: 9 of 22 rose
The four rising KOSPI industries were Electrical & Electronics +2.81% · Manufacturing +1.92% · Medical & Precision Equipment +1.75% · Distribution +1.01%
KOSPI weakness · Construction -2.37% · IT Services -2.16% · Entertainment & Culture -1.67% · Transportation Equipment & Parts -1.66% · Electricity & Gas -1.60% · Machinery & Equipment -1.33% · Securities -1.28%
Of 39 theme indexes, 15 rose and 24 fell · KRX AI Semiconductor +3.13%: 18 of 20 constituents advanced · KRX-Akros AI Power Infrastructure +1.56%
All 10 constituents of KRX Game TOP 10 fell · KRX Shipbuilding TOP10 declined for a second day after -5.48% in the previous session
Industries that rose outside semiconductors · KOSDAQ Non-Metals +2.76%: 11 up vs 4 down among 15 stocks · KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment +2.24%: 89 up vs 83 down among 183 · KOSDAQ Chemicals +1.70%: 60 up vs 50 down among 125
Advancers and decliners · KOSPI: 0 limit-up · 304 up · 35 unchanged · 578 down · 1 limit-down · KOSDAQ: 7 limit-up · 739 up · 99 unchanged · 893 down · 0 limit-down
Share of advancers · KOSPI 33.1% · KOSDAQ 42.9% · denominator includes limit-up, up, unchanged, down and limit-down stocks
Stock counts inside weak industries · KOSPI Food, Beverage & Tobacco: 6 up vs 39 down among 47 · KOSPI Construction: 9 up vs 24 down among 37 · KOSPI Financials: 35 up vs 100 down among 142
Industry returns are market-cap-weighted index moves, not net inflow amounts by industry
CHANGE / 05

Answering yesterday's questions

Scoring yesterday's confirmation conditions today
YESTERDAY → TODAY

Other-corporation buying continued at almost the same size for a second dayThe gap between decliners and advancers also narrowed to less than 2xThe U.S. 10-year yield again hit its highest intraday level since 2007 but closed below 5% · the next close will come with the Fed decision

01
Other-corporation net buying · remained above KRW 1tn
+KRW 1.6430tn
→
+KRW 1.6572tn
02
U.S. 10-year close · remained below 5%
4.961%
→
4.996%
03
KOSPI decliners ÷ advancers
2.45x
→
1.90x
NEXT / 06

What to check next session

Conditions that can be scored from actual outcomes, not probabilities
Does the U.S. 10-year yield close above 5% after the Fed decision?

Sep. 15 local close 4.996% · intraday 5.041% · score it on the close immediately after the 03:00 KST Sep. 17 decision and the following close · a close above 5% would leave intact the rationale behind the previous session's afternoon selloff

Does foreign net selling in KOSPI extend to a seventh session?

Six straight sessions through today · foreigners also sold roughly KRW 11.34tn over the latest five sessions · if the streak breaks, the semiconductor catalyst will have changed the flow as well; if it continues, today's rise remains a session absorbed by institutions and other corporations

Does the share of KOSPI advancers rise above 50%?

Today 33.1% · if the index rises again while this stays below half, the structure remains one in which a single semiconductor axis carries the index · KOSDAQ 42.9%

Closing at the day's high was a late-session event.

Full index · FX · rates · commodity data are on MARKETDaily keeps only the values needed to explain today's session.
MARKET ↗
Sources · Data Basis
As of 2026.09.16 · index, industry, theme and individual-stock closes are based on the KRX regular session, 09:00–15:30 KST
Information cutoff · 20:00 KST on Sep. 16 · indicators released and overseas intraday values after that time are not included
Indexes · KOSPI/KOSDAQ open, high, low and close are final regular-session values · Naver Finance daily index charts, sourced from KRX
Intraday path · closing-price path read from the KRX regular-session KOSPI 5-minute chart · line vertices are read from 5-minute closes; only open, low, high and close are final values · the day's high was made in the closing auction
Investor totals · KRX regular-session closing data · KOSPI foreigners -KRW 1.6808tn · retail -KRW 1.1863tn · institutions +KRW 1.2116tn · other corporations +KRW 1.6572tn · other corporations and other foreigners are separately classified investor categories, and KRW 1.7bn remains in the sum of the four values attributable to other foreigners · KOSDAQ series differed by roughly tens of billions of won, so only direction and scale are shown
Stock-level flows · KRX investor trading data · amounts differ across series, so only rankings and concentration direction are shown; amounts are omitted
Program trading · KOSPI arbitrage +KRW 45.2bn · non-arbitrage -KRW 1.3142tn · total -KRW 1.2690tn · regular-session closing data
Turnover · KOSPI KRW 15.855tn · volume 197.7m shares · regular-session closing data
Futures · KOSPI 200 futures direction only · KOSPI 200 cash and futures close at different times, so closing levels are excluded from directional inference
Cumulative flows · direct sum of the same investor-flow series from Yonhap KOSPI regular-session closing reports for Sep. 10, 11, 14, 15 and 16
Industry & theme · KRX Index closing data for 46 industry indexes and 39 theme indexes · constituent up/unchanged/down counts from the same dataset
Market breadth · KRX counts of advancing/declining stocks · advancer share uses limit-up + up in the numerator and all limit-up, up, unchanged, down and limit-down stocks in the denominator
Individual-stock returns · final regular-session closes · Orion and Nongshim from regular-session closing reports
Previous domestic session · Sep. 15 other corporations +KRW 1.6430tn, KOSPI 254 advancers and 623 decliners, and the Sep. 14 local U.S. 10-year close of 4.961% are based on the Sep. 15 edition
Overseas · Dow 52,093.11 · S&P 500 7,585.73 · Nasdaq 25,981.57 · Philadelphia Semiconductor 11,175.55 · VIX 17.20 are Sep. 15 local closes · U.S. 10-year close 4.996% and intraday 5.041% from cited reporting
Oil · WTI $105.83 and Brent $108.75 are Sep. 15 local closes · during the Korean session WTI was in the $103–104 range · overseas intraday values vary by reference time
USD/KRW · 1,368.6 was the daytime-session close, up 9.2 won from the previous session · intraday high 1,372.9
Companies · approval of SK hynix's revised wage-and-collective-bargaining agreement was reported at 09:09 on Sep. 16 · the widening of SK hynix's gain from the 3% range to the 4% range around 15:00 comes from regular-session closing reporting · talks between SK hynix and Intel on U.S. memory production were reported by Reuters at 01:31 local time Sep. 16, 14:31 KST, and no contract has been finalized · leasing Ohio production facilities and forming a JV were options cited as under consideration · company comments, Industrial Technology Protection Act review risk, the $4bn Indiana back-end plant, and KRW 54.3tn of investment in Cheongju/Yongin are from cited reporting
Indicators · U.S. August retail sales scheduled for 21:30 KST on Sep. 16 · consensus +0.7% MoM · July -0.6%
Schedule · Fed meeting Sep. 15–16 local time · decision 03:00 KST Sep. 17, press conference 03:30 · Bank of England Sep. 17 at 12:00 UK time · Bank of Japan Sep. 17–18 meeting, policy statement release time officially listed as TBD · governor's press conference 15:30 KST
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