DAILY MARKET NOTE / 14 SEP 2026

U.S. Semiconductors Rose on the 11th,
Korean Memory Sold Off on the 14th

KOSPI -3.26% · down for a third straight session · opened -3.14% gap lower, narrowed the loss into noon, then gave it all back in the afternoon · KOSDAQ -1.69%The main bearish catalyst was a weekend debate over slowing the pace of AI development · even as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose on Sep. 11 local time, U.S. memory and storage names had already fallen on their own, and that split deepened in Korea on MondayOn top of that came oil rebounding on weekend geopolitical events and U.S. long yields nearing 5% · foreign net selling was concentrated in SK hynix, with retail investors on the other side

What was marked down in memory today was not earnings · it was the expectation attached to the timing of the next orders

KOSPI

6,684.37

-3.26%

KOSDAQ

806.79

-1.69%

MARKET PATH / 01

Most of the Loss Was Priced In at the Open; the Noon Rebound Was Given Back

When did direction change, and what was working then?

KOSPI · 09:00~15:30Opened 6,692.61 → 6,773.97 at 11:50 → closed 6,684.37 · gave back 89.60 pts from the high

OPEN6,692.61-3.14%

HIGH6,773.97-1.97%

LOW6,654.82-3.69%

CLOSE6,684.37-3.26%

THE READ

The gap-down open came after a Friday when U.S. stocks and the semiconductor index rose, so this was not a simple transmission of overseas index direction; it extended a split that had already opened in U.S. memory and storage names that same nightOf the 225.54-point close-to-close decline, 217.30 points were already priced into the first trade · only 8.24 points of additional loss were created intradayThe noon rebound stalled well short of the previous close · from there, the recovered ground was surrendered step by stepMarket breadth was weak as well, but the deeper pressure on the index came from the top of the market-cap table · all five largest stocks fell more than the index, and three dropped more than 5%

OPEN · MORNING

Opened 217.30 pts Lower at 6,692.61; Day Low at 10:20

Opened at 6,692.61, 217.30 points below the previous close · KOSDAQ also opened lower at 806.27The 09:00 hour stayed in a narrow 6,677–6,710 range · from 10:00 it slid to the 10:20 at 6,654.82The additional drop from the open to the low was 37.79 points · almost all of the overnight news was priced in at the first trade

MIDDAY · AFTERNOON

Rebound From 10:55, Reaching 6,773.97 at 11:50

The 10:55 five-minute bar jumped 32 points in one move, followed by an hour-long rebound to the day high at 11:50The rebound stalled after 12:30 · around 6,735 at 13:00, then around 6,712 at 14:00 as gains were given back step by step

Slid to Around 6,674 at 14:20, Then Closed at 6,684.37

The 14:20 five-minute bar fell to around 6,674, near the day low · from there to the close, the index stayed between roughly 6,670 and 6,690The close gave back 89.60 points from the high · 29.55 points above the day lowKOSPI advancers 311 · decliners 563 · fell further to 33.8% from 40.3% in the previous session

The line connects KOSPI five-minute closes · high/low markers use the intrabar high and low of the relevant five-minute bar, so they may sit slightly off the line · the four confirmed open/high/low/close values are based on the KRX regular-session close · 15:20–15:30 is the closing call-auction period · the horizontal dashed line is the previous close at 6,909.91 · the day low came in the 10:20 five-minute bar.

WHY / 02

Weekend AI Slowdown Talk and Oil Turning Higher Again

Only the catalysts that actually explain the day’s direction

The Main Driver of Domestic Memory Weakness Was Weekend Talk of Slowing AI Development

On Sep. 12 local time, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed slowing the pace of capability gains to allow time for safeguards and third-party evaluations · OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly voiced supportThe discussion spread into concern that a slower pace could delay data-center expansion and memory ordering · there is still no confirmation that actual orders have been postponedAsia’s AI supply chain weakened together · SoftBank -11.3% · TSMC -1.2% · SMIC -2.6% · in Korea, SK hynix -6.35% · Samsung Electronics -4.05%

-6.35%SK hynix regular-session close KRW 1,697,000

View evidence

Amodei’s remarks came with a qualification · the point was to allow time for safety verification, not to halt training or technological progress · President Trump rejected calls to slow down, citing the technology race with China · this remains at the level of public remarks and has not been adopted as policy (unconfirmed)

U.S. stocks closed higher on Sep. 11 local time · Dow +0.98% · S&P500 +0.86% · Nasdaq +0.96% · +1.81%

That same night, memory and storage names had already fallen separately · Micron -0.22% · SanDisk -3.50% · Western Digital -2.98% · Seagate -3.73% · the point where the index and memory names diverged

Counterpoint · Hana Securities said there is no evidence that hardware orders or revenue have reached an inflection point · TSMC’s August revenue, released Sep. 10 local time, rose 53.3% YoY, marking a fourth straight record month

The same material’s confirmation checklist · whether falling new orders · contract renegotiations · lower memory prices · and rising inventory days appear at the same time

Oil Rebounding Over the Weekend and U.S. Long Yields Nearing 5% Deepened the Loss

On Sep. 10 local time, a drone launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, halting operations · the route bypasses Hormuz and has recently carried 4–5 million barrels per day, making it a key corridorOn Sep. 13 local time, another tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while an Oman ministerial meeting where Iran and Gulf states were to discuss a temporary maritime route was postponed · oil, which had fallen Friday, reversed direction over the weekendThe rate burden had already been building · on Sep. 11 local time, U.S. August CPI rose 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% forecast, while the stood at 4.974% · rate-sensitive sectors also remained near the bottom · KOSPI Construction -4.10% · Machinery & Equipment -2.92% · Electricity & Gas -2.90%

$107.48Brent · as of 09:14 KST around the domestic open · up 2.74%

View evidence

At the same time, WTI was $102.24 +2.19% · after the domestic close, during the 21:00 KST hour, Brent was $108.19 +3.42% · WTI $103.14 · reference times are shown because these assets trade around the clock

The Sep. 11 local-time close had actually been lower · WTI fell $2.43 to $100.05 · Brent fell $3.02 to $104.61 · weekend events reversed that direction

U.S. August CPI · headline +0.4% MoM (forecast +0.4% · July +0.1%) · core +0.3% MoM (forecast +0.2% · July +0.2%)

pricing put the probability of a hike of at least 25 bp at the September Fed meeting at 87.3% (reported) · the U.S. 30Y yield was near 5.38%, close to its 2007 high of 5.40% (reported)

USD/KRW closed the daytime session at 1,347.3 · up KRW 1.4 for a third straight session

Central-bank decisions are clustered this week · Fed and Bank of England on Sep. 17 · Bank of Japan on Sep. 18

MONEY / 03

Foreign Selling Was Heavily Concentrated in SK hynix

Who moved the index today

FOREIGN · KOSPI CASH

-KRW 3.2996tn

Foreigners’ was KRW 4.1266tn · SK hynix alone accounted for KRW 2.089tnAll five largest net sells were semiconductor/electronics mega-caps · Samsung Electronics plus its preferred shares totaled KRW 1.0832tnNet buying on the other side was much smaller · No. 1 Woori Financial Group KRW 43.2bn · Alteogen KRW 35.1bn · Hanmi Semiconductor KRW 24.7bn

SK hynix-KRW 2.089tn

Samsung Electronics-KRW 872.4bn

Samsung Electronics Pref.-KRW 210.8bn

Samsung Electro-Mechanics-KRW 133.0bn

INSTITUTION

-KRW 1.1716tnSamsung Electronics -KRW 454.3bn · SK hynix -KRW 453.6bn · the two stocks accounted for KRW 907.9bn of institutions’ KRW 1.7785tn gross value of net-sold stocks · same direction as foreigners

INDIVIDUAL

+KRW 2.9723tnSK hynix +KRW 1.5475tn · Samsung Electronics +KRW 891.4bn · the two stocks accounted for KRW 2.4389tn of retail investors’ KRW 3.8279tn gross value of net-bought stocks · retail directly absorbed what foreigners and institutions sold

OTHER ·

+KRW 1.5118tn

Back-solved by summing stock-level net buying by foreigners, institutions and retail investors and reversing the sign · based on whole-stock-market raw data · this is not a direct “Other corporations” value, so it cannot isolate how much share-buyback demand is included

Program trading · futures · stock-level flows · concentration calculation

KOSPI -KRW 2.7400tn

Foreigners -KRW 758.0bn

Institutions · KOSPI 200 futures+KRW 698.0bn

Retail · KOSPI 200 futures+KRW 91.0bn

KOSDAQ foreigners -KRW 89.4bn · institutions -KRW 30.0bn · retail +KRW 109.4bn · same direction as KOSPI
Stock-level back-solved residual outside the three investor groups · SK hynix +KRW 995.1bn · Samsung Electronics +KRW 435.3bn · the two stocks totaled KRW 1.4304tn · similar in scale to the market-wide residual, but not a direct stock-level “Other corporations” figure, so it is not attributed to that category
Next foreign net sells: SK Square -KRW 59.6bn · Doosan Enerbility -KRW 45.3bn · APR -KRW 33.9bn · Silicon2 -KRW 25.9bn / net buys: Samsung SDI +KRW 21.4bn · GS +KRW 18.8bn · Hyundai Mobis +KRW 17.1bn · LIG Defense & Aerospace +KRW 15.2bn
Next institutional net sells: SK Square -KRW 117.8bn · Samsung Electro-Mechanics -KRW 69.9bn · Doosan Enerbility -KRW 47.2bn · Samsung SDI -KRW 46.8bn / net buys: Silicon2 +KRW 27.6bn · Samyang Foods +KRW 22.2bn · Samsung Heavy Industries +KRW 18.0bn · Hanwha Aerospace +KRW 14.8bn
Next retail net buys: Samsung Electronics Pref. +KRW 205.7bn · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +KRW 198.8bn · SK Square +KRW 174.2bn · Doosan Enerbility +KRW 94.8bn / net sells: Woori Financial Group -KRW 39.2bn · Hanwha Aerospace -KRW 29.5bn · Samsung Heavy Industries -KRW 28.6bn
Concentration ratios use the 19:31 KRX snapshot · foreigners’ No. 1 net sell 50.6% · top five 81.5% · institutions’ No. 1 net sell 25.5% · retail’s No. 1 net buy 40.4%
The denominator is the sum of the values of stocks that the investor group net bought or net sold, not the group’s market-wide net amount · figures cover the full stock market, combining KOSPI and KOSDAQ
Investor-group totals are for the KOSPI regular session, while stock-level values cover the whole stock market; they are therefore not added together or used to calculate shares in the same field

SECTOR / 04

Electrical & Electronics and Construction at the Bottom · Defense and High Dividend Show Relative Strength

Today’s distribution of strength and weakness, rather than a ranking table

STRONG

KOSDAQ Telecommunications+2.38%

KOSDAQ Entertainment & Culture+2.23%

KOSPI Textiles & Apparel+1.47%

KOSPI Transportation & Warehousing+1.18%

WEAK

KOSPI Electrical & Electronics-4.75%

KOSPI Construction-4.10%

KOSPI Machinery & Equipment-2.92%

KOSPI Electricity & Gas-2.90%

The weak end was heavily concentrated in KOSPI Electrical & Electronics, which includes semiconductors · among 46 industry indices, only Electrical & Electronics and Construction fell more than 4%The two stronger industries had different internals · in KOSDAQ Telecommunications, 7 of 8 traded stocks rose, showing broad strength · in KOSDAQ Entertainment & Culture, 24 rose and 28 fell, so the index rose without broad participation, KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ was the only one up in the 3% range today · Financial High Dividend and Shipbuilding came nextOne day’s move is not enough to declare a rotation at the top · Defense and High Dividend were relative strength on a day when the index fell more than 3%

Industry evidence

Of 46 KRX industry indices, 10 rose and 36 fell · of 24 KOSPI industries, 7 rose · of 22 KOSDAQ industries, 3 rose
Weakness detail · among traded stocks, KOSPI Electrical & Electronics had 67 decliners and 12 advancers out of 79 · KOSPI Construction had 30 decliners out of 35 · KOSPI Machinery & Equipment had 18 decliners out of 29 · KOSPI Manufacturing -3.85% is a broad parent grouping containing 557 stocks, so it is excluded from the list
Of 39 theme indices, 10 rose and 29 fell · leaders: KRX K-AI Defense TOP5+ +3.22% (8 of 10 stocks higher) · KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10 +1.44% · KRX-Akros Financials & Holdings High Dividend +1.42% · KRX Shipbuilding TOP10 +0.57%
Weak themes · KRX K-AI Semiconductor TOP2+ -5.37% · KRX Semiconductor Top 15 -4.05% (12 of 15 stocks down) · KRX AI Semiconductor -3.77% · KRX K-AI Secondary Battery -3.95% · KRX-Akros AI Power Infrastructure -2.11% (all 15 stocks down)
Two of the top 10 stocks by market cap rose · KB Financial +2.08% · Samsung Biologics +0.35% / SK Square -8.17% · SK hynix -6.35% · Samsung Electronics Pref. -5.12% · Samsung Electro-Mechanics -4.50% · Samsung Electronics -4.05% · Samsung Life -3.09% · Hyundai Motor -2.88% · LG Energy Solution -2.36%
Defense names · Hanwha Systems +5.78% · Hanwha Aerospace +5.18% · Korea Aerospace Industries +4.90% · the KRW 641bn Chunmoo export contract with Croatia cited as background was disclosed on Sep. 11 and was not a new filing today
Industry and theme indices are not mixed into the same ranking · industry returns are based on indices, so a rise does not mean every stock in the industry moved together, nor do the figures represent net inflows by industry

CHANGE / 05

Answers to Yesterday’s Questions

Scoring yesterday’s checkpoints today

YESTERDAY → TODAY

Yesterday’s first question—whether the U.S. 10Y would break 5%—fell short at 4.974% · rates were already a burden before the open, while the fresh gap at the open was driven more by weekend AI slowdown talk and oil turning higher againThe question was whether foreign net selling of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics would fall below KRW 1tn; instead it widened from KRW 1.9938tn to about KRW 3tn · concentration in a single stock also increasedThe close also failed to reclaim 6,802.50, which was both the previous day’s open and low · it finished 118.13 points below that level · also fell for a third straight day, from 40.3% to 33.8%

Foreign net selling · SK hynix + Samsung Electronics

KRW 1.9938tn

→

about KRW 3tn

U.S. 10Y close

4.944%

→

4.974%

KOSPI close · vs. previous day’s open/low

6,802.50

→

6,684.37

Scoring evidence

KOSPI: 2 limit-up · 309 up · 45 unchanged · 563 down · 0 limit-down · 311 advancers · 311/919 = 33.8%
KOSDAQ: 6 limit-up · 545 up · 77 unchanged · 1,115 down · 0 limit-down · 551 advancers · 551/1,743 = 31.6% · previous session 35.4%
Numerator = advancers + limit-up stocks; denominator = all stocks including unchanged · both markets match the dashboard’s printed ratios
KOSPI turnover about KRW 20.2tn · volume 274.4m shares · previous session KRW 19.67tn
Foreign KOSPI cash-equity total over three sessions -KRW 8.0856tn · Sep. 10 -KRW 2.4820tn · Sep. 11 -KRW 2.3040tn · Sep. 14 -KRW 3.2996tn
The previous day’s KOSPI open and low were both 6,802.50 · today opened at 6,692.61, 109.89 points below that level

NEXT / 06

What to Check Next Session

Conditions that can actually be scored, rather than probabilities

Do U.S. Memory and Storage Names Diverge From the Semiconductor Index Again Tonight?

Compare the direction of Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate with the · if the index rises while all four fall again, Friday’s split is still intact · if they move in the same direction, the relative weakness in memory that opened after the weekend remarks is easing

Does Combined Foreign Net Selling of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics Fall Below KRW 1tn?

The two stocks totaled about KRW 3tn today · below KRW 1tn would signal that the three-day selling intensity is breaking · another reading in the KRW 2tn range would mean the top of the market-cap table is still weighing on the index

Does Brent Stay Above $108?

This tests whether the Saudi East-West Pipeline shutdown lasts beyond the period inventories can bridge · if Brent holds above $108, score whether Chemicals, Transportation and Airlines remain weak · confirmation of a pipeline restart would point to a reversal of the weekend surge

TONIGHT

9/14
22:30

U.S. Market Open

First session after the weekend remarks · check the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index alongside the four memory/storage names

NEXT SESSION · 9/15

9/15
06:00

Bank of Korea · August Export/Import Price Indices & Trade Indices

Preliminary · check how much rebounding oil and the KRW 1,347-per-dollar exchange rate fed into import prices

9/15
09:00

Korean Market Open

First session after the weekend catalysts were priced in over one day

This week’s schedule · 9/16–9/18

9/16
21:30

U.S. August Retail Sales

Consumer data released on the final day of the Fed meeting

9/17
03:00

U.S. Fed Rate Decision

Meeting Sep. 15–16 local time · CME pricing puts the probability of a hike of at least 25 bp at 87.3%

9/17
20:00

Bank of England Rate Decision

Another central-bank decision in the same week, one day after the Fed

9/18
daytime

Bank of Japan Rate Decision

Meeting Sep. 17–18 · result due during the daytime on Sep. 18 KST

A day when decliners nearly doubled advancers—and two memory stocks sat at the center of it.

Sources · Data basis

Reference date 2026.09.14 · indices, market breadth, turnover, investor-group totals and individual closes use the KRX regular session, 09:00–15:30 · stock-level flows use the separate basis below
Indices · KOSPI/KOSDAQ open, high, low, close and market breadth are confirmed regular-session closing figures
Intraday path · KOSPI five-minute closes · open/high/low/close are confirmed regular-session closing values
Investor-group totals · KRX regular-session closing figures as cited in reports · KOSPI foreigners/institutions/retail, the three KOSDAQ groups, program trading and turnover
Stock-level flows · KRX investor trading-trends snapshot retrieved at 19:31 · whole-stock-market basis · used for rankings and concentration direction · denominators use raw-data sums · residual outside the three investor groups is back-solved
Futures · KOSPI 200 futures by investor group use the futures-market close
Industries & themes · KRX Index industry and theme indices at market close
Individual stock returns · regular-session closing figures as cited in reports
Overseas · U.S. equity indices, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and individual semiconductor stocks use Sep. 11 local-time closes · U.S. 10Y at 4.974% and U.S. 30Y near 5.38% are based on reported figures
Oil · Brent $107.48 and WTI $102.24 are as of 09:14 KST on Sep. 14 · $108.19 is from the 21:00 KST hour the same day · Sep. 11 local-time closes were WTI $100.05 and Brent $104.61
U.S. CPI · August data released Sep. 11 local time · headline +0.4% MoM (forecast +0.4% · July +0.1%) · core +0.3% MoM (forecast +0.2% · July +0.2%)
Reporting · Dario Amodei’s Sep. 12 local-time proposal to slow the pace, support from Sam Altman and Elon Musk, President Trump’s rejection of slowdown calls, Asian semiconductor-stock returns, and CME’s 87.3% hike probability · all are cited from reports and none constitutes confirmed policy
Middle East · strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and shutdown (Sep. 10 local time) · 4–5 million barrels per day of throughput is from Reuters reporting · the tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz (Sep. 13 local time) and postponement of the Oman ministerial meeting are also based on reports
Broker view · Hana Securities’ assessment of order/revenue inflection and its confirmation conditions; Taiwan’s August semiconductor exports and TSMC revenue growth are figures cited in reports
USD/KRW · daytime-session close 1,347.3
Company · Hanwha Aerospace’s KRW 641bn Chunmoo export contract with Croatia was disclosed Sep. 11
Schedule · Bank of Korea Export/Import Price Indices & Trade Indices Sep. 15 at 06:00 · Fed meeting Sep. 15–16 local time · Bank of England Sep. 17 · Bank of Japan meeting Sep. 17–18

Previous issue · www.snowshagal.com

A Monday FartherThan Friday

U.S. Semiconductors Rose on the 11th,Korean Memory Sold Off on the 14th