DAILY MARKET NOTE / 04 SEP 2026

The Relief That Lifted Chips,
and Weighed on Insurers

KOSPI +1.64% · second straight gain · 550 stocks advanced · breadth 60.4%A signal from a Fed official that rates could stay on hold in September eased rate pressure, and semiconductor bellwethers filled the spaceInsurance, which had held up the index in the previous session, led today's declines

It Wasn't Just the Close That Came Back

MARKET PATH / 01

After a Morning Pullback, Gains Widened Again in the Afternoon

When the direction changed, and what drove it

KOSPI · 09:00—15:30Opened 6,654.36 → 6,632.77 → 6,746.14 → closed 6,687.21

OPEN6,654.36+1.14%

HIGH6,746.14+2.53%

LOW6,632.77+0.81%

CLOSE6,687.21+1.64%

THE READ

The morning pullback did not mean the bullish catalyst had weakened; it was a stretch when the upside was concentrated in one large-cap axisSemiconductor bellwethers drove the renewed afternoon advance · by the close, gains had broadened into KOSDAQ as wellTurnover was below its 5-day average on KOSPI · above it on KOSDAQWhat changed from the previous session was who still owned the gains at the close · leadership rotated from financials to semiconductorsToday was the only one of the past seven sessions when both the index sign and the share of advancers pointed higher

OPEN · MORNING

An Open Led Only by Large Caps

Opened +1.14% on gains in U.S. stocks and a stronger won from the previous session · rose as high as 6,682.61 earlyThen pulled back: 6,657.23 at 10:23 · 6,647.68 at 10:44, below the openIntraday low of 6,632.77 just before 11:00In the same stretch, +1.31% · Mid-Cap Index -0.50%

AFTERNOON

The Stretch When Gains Widened Again

Recovered above the open to 6,688.83 at 13:22 · the high up to that point was 6,697.60Gains then widened further, reaching an intraday high of 6,746.14 around 14:21 · up 2.53%Semiconductor bellwethers pulled upward · insurance and financials pulled downward, a split that lasted all day

A Close That Gave Back Part of the High

Closed at 6,687.21, 58.93 points below the intraday highKOSDAQ rose more than KOSPI at +2.95% · advancers 69.3%KOSPI 200 ended at 1,051.52 (+1.81%), 0.17pp above KOSPI · the market-cap leaders outperformed into the close closed below 40 · the first time in about six months

This is not a minute-by-minute chart, but an intraday direction line connecting the four confirmed points: open, low, high and close.

WHY / 02

Semiconductors Took the Lead as Rate Pressure Eased

Only the catalysts that actually explain the day's direction

The main catalyst for the rally was a Fed official's conditional signal that rates could stay on hold

At the Sept. 3 Reuters NEXT event, Fed Governor Waller said recent data showed signsHe said he would support keeping the policy rate at its current level provided progress toward the 2% target continuesSeptember fell from the 60% range to around 50%, helping cool the rise in U.S. long-term yields

About 50%September Fed rate-hike probability · 60% range before the remarks

View evidence

Depending on the snapshot, the hike probability was in the low-50% range · 50.2% in reports immediately after the remarks

U.S. 10-year Treasury 4.762% · down 3.4bp from 4.796% in the previous session

U.S. market on Sept. 3: Dow +1.18% · S&P 500 +1.06% · Nasdaq +1.40%

11,352.13(+0.11%) · VIX 14.32(-5.79%)

Waller also added that he would consider a hike if inflation heated up again

Chair Warsh took the view that one month of slower inflation was not enough to establish a sustained improvement, leaving the two assessments divided

The Current Account Reconfirmed Chip Export Strength and Won Appreciation Before the Open

The Bank of Korea reported a July surplus of USD 42.08bn · the largest ever for July and the second-largest monthly surplus on recordThe surplus was driven by the goods balance · goods exports stayed above USD 100bn for a second straight monthLess a fresh catalyst than a confirmation that reinforced strong semiconductor exports and won appreciation

USD 42.08bnJuly current-account surplus · record high for July

View evidence

July semiconductor exports USD 41.17bn · +176.3% YoY · already released by Korea Customs Service on Aug. 18 as finalized customs data

Samsung Electronics KRW 255,500 (+2.20%) · SK hynix KRW 1,647,000 (+3.20%) · Hanmi Semiconductor +9.26%

KRX Semiconductor Top 15 +3.90% · all 15 constituents rose · KRX AI Semiconductor +3.43%

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was nearly flat at +0.11% in the previous U.S. session · today's Korean chip rally is difficult to explain as simple tracking of the U.S. chip index alone

Yesterday's Rate Catalyst Reversed for Insurers in a Single Day

The increased likelihood of U.S. rates staying on hold removed the very basis of the previous session's insurance rallyBecause insurers had risen on expectations of a rate hike in the previous session, profit-taking also emergedAll 13 insurance stocks fell · insurance was the worst of KOSPI's 24 industries · financials, including banks, also weakened

-3.46%KOSPI Insurance · all 13 constituents fell

MONEY / 03

Foreigners and Institutions Bought Back the Chips They Sold the Previous Session

Who moved the index today

INSTITUTION · KOSPI CASH

+KRW 1.6691tn

Turned net buyers alongside foreigners for the first time in six sessions · the largest net-buying total among the three investor groupsBuying was concentrated in Samsung Electronics alone · 28.6%Reversed direction from the previous session, when Samsung Electronics saw -KRW 208.7bn and SK hynix -KRW 300.4bn

Samsung Electronics+KRW 635.9bn

SK hynix+KRW 158.6bn

Daeduck Electronics-KRW 48.4bn

Futures · program trading · detailed flows

Foreign +KRW 2.05tn

Institutional KOSPI 200 futures-KRW 1.922tn

KOSPI program trading+KRW 67.2bn

-KRW 193.7bn

Foreign KOSPI 200 futures net buying expanded from +KRW 808.0bn in the previous session · based on KRX's finalized 15:45 data
Program trading split between arbitrage +KRW 260.9bn and non-arbitrage -KRW 193.7bn · turned net positive from -KRW 400.0bn in the previous session
Net futures buying is not treated as a straightforward bullish bet · cash and futures markets close at different times, so the closing-price gap is not used as a directional signal
Top foreign buys · SK hynix +KRW 527.2bn · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +KRW 198.8bn · SK Square +KRW 136.1bn · Samsung Electronics Preferred +KRW 122.5bn · Hanmi Semiconductor +KRW 80.2bn
Top institutional buys · Samsung Electronics +KRW 635.9bn · SK hynix +KRW 158.6bn · Samsung Electro-Mechanics +KRW 85.6bn · SK Square +KRW 83.3bn · SK Innovation +KRW 52.8bn
Buying concentration is the share of a participant's total gross buying in net-bought stocks accounted for by its No. 1 stock · the denominator is not the market-wide net flow
KOSDAQ · foreigners +KRW 260.0bn · institutions +KRW 160.2bn · individuals -KRW 412.0bn
5-session cumulative (Aug. 31–Sep. 4), KOSPI · foreigners -KRW 2.985tn · institutions -KRW 2.016tn · individuals -KRW 3.060tn
USD/KRW closed at 1,350.4 · around a 14-month low · foreign selling and won strength diverged in the previous session, but today foreign net buying moved in the same direction as the stronger won
Turnover: KOSPI KRW 17.46tn, 85.1% of its 5-day average · KOSDAQ KRW 6.65tn, 132.0% of its 5-day average
KOSPI 4.56% · down from 6.39% in the previous session · regular-market basis combining KRX and NXT

SECTOR / 04

Where It Was Strong · Where It Was Weak

Today's distribution of strength and weakness, not just a ranking table

Electrical & Electronics drove the KOSPI higher · the market's No. 1 and No. 2 companies by capitalization rose together.At the top of the performance table were KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment and IT Services · semiconductor equipment and robot components rose together38 of 46 industries advanced · all eight decliners were on KOSPIWeakness clustered in dividend and domestic defensive sectors, exactly where the previous session's strength had beenBecause this is a one-day move, the only conclusion is that the top of the strength table changed

STRONG

Machinery & Equipment (KOSDAQ)+5.21%

Medical & Precision Instruments (KOSPI)+3.86%

IT Services (KOSDAQ)+3.52%

Electrical & Electronics (KOSPI)+2.44%

WEAK

Insurance (KOSPI)-3.46%

Electricity & Gas (KOSPI)-1.48%

Food, Beverages & Tobacco (KOSPI)-0.93%

Distribution (KOSPI)-0.73%

Industry evidence

KOSPI: 17 of 24 industries up, 7 down · KOSDAQ: 21 of 22 up, 1 down
In KOSDAQ Machinery & Equipment, 146 of 183 stocks rose · all 13 KOSPI insurance stocks fell
31 of 39 themes rose, 8 fell · KRX Semiconductor Top 15 +3.90% (all 15 constituents up) · KOSDAQ TOP 15 +3.78% · KRX AI Semiconductor +3.43%
Leading theme decliners: KOSPI 200 Financial High Dividend TOP 10 -2.96% · KRX-Akros Financial & Holding High Dividend -2.39% · KRX-Akros High Dividend 20 -1.76%
KOSDAQ robotics · ROBOTIS +22.54% · catalyst: Q2 operating profit turned positive and China sales increased
Five of the top 10 stocks by market cap rose · all five were semiconductors or electronics
Industry returns are market-cap-weighted index returns, not industry-level net inflow amounts

CHANGE / 05

Answer to Yesterday's Question

Today's check on the conditions set yesterday

YESTERDAY → TODAY

The previous session's question was whether risk appetite would return after a day when only the close came backToday's answer: it did · the share of advancers moved above half, and KOSDAQ turned positive after four straight declinesInsurance, which led gains in the previous session, flipped to the opposite sign in a single dayForeign net futures buying and Other Corporations buying, the two other items we asked about, both persisted

· KOSPI

46.6%

→

60.4%

KOSPI Insurance

+4.44%

→

-3.46%

KOSDAQ Index

-1.71%

→

+2.95%

NEXT / 06

What to Check Next Session

Conditions that can actually be scored, rather than probabilities

Can Semiconductors Withstand Higher U.S. Rates Again?

After the close, U.S. August employment beat expectations by a wide margin, pushing the September hike probability back into the upper-50% range · with part of today's initial rate relief reversed, the test is whether Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can extend their gains

Will KOSPI Breadth Stay Above 50% for a Second Day?

Check whether today's 60.4% was a one-day event · if the index rises while breadth falls, the structure has reverted to a single large-cap axis

Will Other Buyers Keep Absorbing the Two Chip Stocks Sold by Individuals?

Watch whether Other Corporations extend their net-buying streak to 14 sessions · and whether foreign net buying of SK hynix and institutional net buying of Samsung Electronics persist for a second day

The sector that propped up the index in the previous session led today's declines · what changed was not the index direction, but who owned the move.

Sources · data conventions

As of 2026.09.04 · domestic figures are finalized closing data
Index open/high/low/close, market breadth, investor totals · Korea Exchange and NAVER Finance finalized closing data
Stock-level flows · Korea Exchange closing investor trading data (entire stock market)
Industries & themes · Korea Exchange industry indices and official theme indices
Futures & program trading · Korea Exchange finalized at 15:45
Short selling · Korea Exchange regular market · KRX and NXT combined
Overseas indices, yields & volatility · U.S. market close on 2026.09.03
Current account · Bank of Korea, July 2026 preliminary balance of payments
Fed Governor Waller remarks · local-time 2026.09.03 Reuters NEXT event coverage · rate-hike probability reflects federal-funds futures and varies by snapshot
U.S. August jobs report · U.S. Department of Labor release at 21:30 on 2026.09.04 · after the Korean market close
Semiconductor exports · Korea Customs Service, finalized July customs data released 2026.08.18
Intraday index path · KOSPI 5-minute bars and same-day market reports
Individual stock moves · same-day market reports
Calendar · U.S. Department of Labor · ECB · Federal Reserve published schedules