Two factors to monitor: how tonight’s U.S. July employment report influences interest rates, and whether Foreign Cash Equities net selling extends to a third day. The next trading day is Monday, Aug 10.
The 55:45 ratio is not a quantitative forecast probability, but the relative weight of upside/downside conditions confirmed at the 15:30 market close. This value reflects only domestic closing signals. It is an exogenous variable that does not incorporate the results of tonight’s employment report.(Key Points for Next Trading Day).
Upside ① Internal market signals increasingly point upward: advancers have outperformed for five consecutive days (60.9%), Institutional Investors turned to net buying in cash equities for the first time in five days, and Foreign Investors expanded their net buying of K200 futures for a second day. ② Outside of semiconductors, secondary batteries and oil refining took the lead, helping the index recover 100 points from its Daily Low. ③ U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 199k, below the Consensus, showing no sharp deterioration in short-term layoff signals. Downside ① Tonight’s employment report remains a complete wildcard. The direction of the Aug 10 opening gap will be determined by its results. ② Foreign Cash Equities net selling has reached a second day, with the focus of selling centered on Samsung Electronics. -KRW 387.6bnhas shifted to ③ Storage.Devices for data storage. SanDisk handles NAND/Flash, while Western Digital (WDC) handles Hard Disk Drives (HDD). Both are benefiting from AI data center demand.Revaluation is currently underway. WDC regular session -13.03%losses have solidified, and SK Hynix -4.88%Short selling also increased.
Shifted from a downside bias of 55 to an upside bias of 55 from the previous day. Among the revised conditions as of 8/4, the 'breadth advantage' was met, but the 'no sharp decline in top-tier Market Cap stocks' condition was not met due to SK Hynix's-4.88%. However, reflecting other internal signals such as the shift to net buying by Institutional Investors in cash equities and the expansion of Foreign Futures buying, the domestic market closing signal was determined to be an upside bias of 55. The employment report is treated as an exogenous variable with an uncertain direction, so it was excluded from probability weighting and instead categorized into scenarios. Conditions will be reset on the morning of 8/10 once the results are released.
WTI at $77.72(+0.56%), international gold at $4,347.70(+2.49%) in real-time trading. While domestic gold and silver stocks retreated today due to profit-taking, international gold prices climbed back above $4,300. At 21:30, the U.S. July employment report (non-farm payrolls consensus around +85k, unemployment rate4.2%) will be released. As the announcement occurs after the domestic market close, it will be reflected starting Monday, 8/10.
The direction was correct, but the landscape differed from expectations. The weight of the index decline fell most heavily on SK Hynix, while the rest of the market had already moved on to find the next front-runners. If one measures the decline solely by index points, such days are only half-right. Effective today, the 8/4 condition of "no sharp decline in top market-cap stocks" is revised to "no concurrent sharp decline in multiple top market-cap stocks." Today’s assessment was graded under the old criteria; the new criteria will apply starting 8/10.
· Samsung Electronics KRW 231,000(+0.22%) · SK Hynix KRW 1,422,000(-4.88%). The two stocks, which moved in tandem for four consecutive days, diverged today.· The decliners remain in the semiconductor sector, same as yesterday: SK Square -3.20%Samsung Electronics (Pref) -1.16%· Hanmi Semiconductor -4.1%· The front line on the other side has shifted: LG Energy Solution +4.3%· POSCO Future M +5.6%· Hanwha Aerospace +4.08%, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which dropped-9.37% yesterday, also +3.99% rebounded.· POSCO Future M, along with domestic battery makers LFPLithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries. Being cheaper and more stable than nickel-based counterparts, they are widely used in Energy Storage Systems (ESS). Shares surged up to+15% in early trade following the disclosure of a long-term cathode material supply contract (2027–2032, exceeding 190,000 tons, per reports).
SK Hynix’s drop today was less than half of yesterday's, while Samsung Electronics finished higher. It was a day when the burden of the index decline fell most heavily on SK Hynix. Sector performance: Sectoral Strength and Weakness.Foreign Investors sold for a second consecutive day, but the scale shrank to the level of26% of the previous day, and the asset sold was Samsung Electronics, not SK Hynix. Institutional Investors turned to net buyers in five sessions, and Foreign Investors' net buying of index futures extended to two days.
Breakdown of investor flows by participant and stock-specific trends Supply & Demand Structure.It is a decline for the second day, but the substance is different. Selling pressure in the KOSPI narrowed down to Foreign Investors alone, and Market Breadth clearly swung back to an upward advantage.
The top bar represents Naver Finance investor data, while the bottom section on individual stock flows represents KRX stock-specific data as the standard. Due to differences in market scope, these figures were not aggregated or used to calculate weightings.
The narrative of investor flows shifted today. The focus of foreign selling has moved, and institutional investors have returned. By KRX stock, foreign investors offloaded Samsung Electronics -KRW 387.6bnSamsung Electronics (Pref) -KRW 79.4bn·SK Hynix -KRW 69.8bnThe concentration of net selling reached23% for Samsung Electronics alone, and37% for the top five names (based on aggregate net selling). Compared to yesterday, when41% of selling was concentrated in SK Hynix alone, the focus has shifted and the concentration has eased. In fact, foreign selling of SK Hynix, which dropped by nearly5%, was one-twenty-fifth of yesterday's volume. On the other side, institutional investors returned after five sessions, buying Samsung Electro-Mechanics +KRW 85.9bn· LG Energy Solution +KRW 67.0bn·Samsung SDI +KRW 61.3bnand returned to buying secondary batteries and components after five sessions.
| Market | Trading value | Compared to the 5-day average |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | KRW 24.30tn | 79% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW 5.24tn | 90% |
The KOSPI remains below its 5-day moving average, even after the record-high trading volume from July 31 dropped out of the calculation, lowering the baseline. This appears to be the result of a wait-and-see stance ahead of Friday’s jobs report.
Foreign Investors remain net sellers for a second consecutive day, though the volume has moderated to 26% of the previous session's level. Institutional Investors turn to net buying for the first time in five sessions.
Foreign Investors return to net selling after a one-day hiatus, offloading three semiconductor stocks. Retail Investors step in as the buyers after just one day.
Foreign Investors return to net buying after two sessions, focusing on large-cap semiconductors. Retail Investors engage in profit-taking.
All three investor groups maintained their directional stance, though volumes contracted sharply. The focus of selling has shifted toward Samsung Electronics, led by institutional investors.
Foreign and institutional investors shifted to net selling, while retail investors stepped in as buyers for the first time in four sessions.
5-day cumulative net flows (Aug 03–Aug 07, dashboard aggregate): Retail Investors +KRW 7.89tn / Foreign Investors -KRW 5.93tn / Institutional Investors -KRW 2.32tn.
The reversal in cumulative Foreign Investor flows from +KRW 2.17tn to -KRW 5.93tn overnight was not due to new selling, but the exclusion of the +KRW 7.24tn from July 31 out of the 5-day window. This marks the second time this week that the rolling window effect has occurred. Even when summing the five days of this week, Foreign Investors remain net sellers of -KRW 5.93tn, meaning the window currently aligns with the actual underlying trend. (Source: Naver Finance, Investor Breakdown by Date)
※ Foreign investors have maintained a combination of spot selling and futures buying for two consecutive days. Net futures purchases expanded to +KRW 962.0bn compared to the previous day, but it remains impossible to determine from a single day's data whether this buying indicates a directional shift or the liquidation of prior short positions. Because the nature of exposure differs between spot net selling and futures net buying amounts, their scales were not compared. KOSDAQ program trading. -KRW 265.4bn(Arbitrage -KRW 20.8bn· Non-arbitrage -KRW 244.6bn). Program trading is a pathway already encompassed within investor-specific Investor Flows; thus, it is not aggregated with foreign and institutional Investor Flows to form a total amount.
Data diverged today. Foreign selling was #1 in Samsung Electronics, while retail buying was #1 in SK Hynix. Institutional buying focused on Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI across secondary battery (2) and components. In SK Square, foreign #1 buying clashed with institutional #1 selling. The entire table illustrates the simultaneous appearance of weakness in semiconductors and buying in secondary batteries and components. While the trading subjects and aggregations differ, preventing this from being grouped as a single capital flow, it was a session where secondary batteries and components absorbed the index pressure shed by semiconductors. (KRX Investor Trading Data · Total Stock Market · 2026.08.07)
Of the 79 sectors, 50 advanced and 29 declined. The leading tier has entirely shifted. Led by Electronic Equipment, Electrical Equipment, Oil & Gas, Chemicals, and Aerospace & Defense (+3.37%), followed in order, with the Electrical Equipment sector—housing the three major battery makers—and the oil refining and petrochemical complex taking the top spots. At the very bottom of the decliners is Non-Ferrous Metals, -7.23%which was in the number one spot yesterday with a gain of+10.34%. However, even within this sector, 26 stocks rose and 12 fell. Korea Zinc, which has the largest Market Cap among the 40 stocks, fell by KRW 1,106,000(-10.37%), dragging the sector index down with it. In essence, what happened in the broader KOSPI today was repeated on a smaller scale within the sector. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -2.05%ranked 73rd out of 79 sectors, with 38 gainers and 125 decliners among 171 stocks, showing the broader sector pulled back slightly. ※ Single-stock (1 stock) sector (Tobacco +3.34% ) and the 'Others' category with a large number of stocks (-0.31%) are excluded from the rankings. Sector change (%) figures are Market Cap-weighted, while thematic change (%) figures are simple averages of constituent stocks; thus, the two rankings are not directly compared.
| Name | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| SK Hynix | Ticker | -4.88% |
| Leading Semiconductor Equities (Production) | Theme | -3.25% |
| Power Semiconductors | Theme | -2.29% |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Sector | -2.05% |
| Semiconductor Equipment | Theme | -2.01% |
| Semiconductor Materials and Components | Theme | -0.99% |
| Samsung Electronics | Ticker | +0.22% |
This marks the third consecutive day of this vertical cross-section, yet the pattern has shifted. While the two bellwethers led the pack in tandem yesterday, today, SK Hynix stands alone at the front, while Samsung Electronics posted gains from the opposite end of the table. Market breadth widened further to 38 gainers against 125 decliners, compared to 43 versus 119 yesterday, yet the magnitude of the decline narrowed significantly from-8.03% to-2.05%. In effect, the market has shifted toward a broader but shallower correction. Short SellingA trading strategy involving the sale of borrowed shares to bet on a decline in stock prices Trading value for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics stood at KRW 536.2bn and KRW 544.8bn respectively, ranking first and second in the market. Total KOSPI trading value increased to KRW 2.04tn, with their combined share of total market turnover rising from 3.6% to 6.2%(KRX+NXT combined).
Following the storage earnings results, the valuation pressure on domestic memory stocks remains most pronounced for SK Hynix today. While the shift from a dual-leader decline to a single-leader dynamic offers a hint of stabilization, the sector breadth remains skewed toward the downside.
| Name | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Secondary Batteries (Production) | Theme | +7.54% |
| Oil refining | Theme | +7.01% |
| Electronic Products | Sector | +5.40% |
| Electrical Equipment | Sector | +4.90% |
| Oil & Gas | Sector | +4.41% |
| Secondary Batteries (Solid-State) | Theme | +3.92% |
| Petrochemicals | Theme | +3.59% |
Secondary batteries had specific catalysts. POSCO Future M's LFPLithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries. Being cheaper and more stable than nickel-based counterparts, they are widely used in Energy Storage Systems (ESS). disclosure of a long-term cathode material supply contract lifted all three major battery makers together (driven by expectations of North American ESS orders, according to media reports), Institutional Investors placed Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI as the top 1st to 3rd in Net Purchases (Net Buying). Oil refining and petrochemicals benefited from the overnight rebound in oil prices (WTI+2.75%). As both lines occupy large Market Cap positions, they were the main pillars supporting the afternoon 100-point retracement. ※ Since secondary batteries (production) and oil refining are themes of 3 stocks each, their Change (%) appears large. To view the full breadth, the secondary battery (materials/components) sector bundled with 74 stocks +2.82% is a better gauge.
The market found other Large-Cap Stocks to support the index on days when semiconductors take a rest. Today, those spots belonged to batteries and oil refining.
| Name | Yesterday | Today |
|---|---|---|
| Non-ferrous Metals (Sector) | +10.34% | -7.23% |
| Precious Metals (Gold/Silver) (Theme) | +7.09% | -4.32% |
| Cosmetics (Sector) | +5.58% | +1.57% |
| mRNA (Theme) | +3.50% | +0.23% |
| Non-life Insurance (Theme) | +2.85% | +0.56% |
Out of 219 themes 132 Advancers, 1 Unchanged (Flat), 86 Decliners. Among the sectors that served as safe havens yesterday, the retracement in metals was sharp. As seen earlier, the decline in non-ferrous metals was driven by a single stock, Korea Zinc, and the precious metals theme consists of only four stocks. Even as international gold prices rose more than 2% during evening trading sessions, domestic gold and silver stocks saw profit-taking take precedence. Cosmetics, mRNA, and non-life insurance maintained their positions while seeing their gains narrow. KOSDAQ Investor Flows showed Retail Investors +KRW 340.4bn·Foreign Investors -KRW 254.0bn· Institutional Investors -KRW 102.8bnas net sellers, with Institutional Investors—who were net buyers yesterday—flipping to the sell side today.
A clear divergence has emerged between one-day safe havens and defensive stocks holding their ground. Capital that rushes in hastily exits just as quickly.
The assessment will be based on the Close direction and whether Foreign Cash Equities and futures flows converge in the same direction. Strong employment data creates headwinds via rising rates and a stronger dollar, while weak employment could be favorable if rates fall, though the effect is offset by heightened recessionary concerns. A result near consensus would minimize volatility.
| Name | Release (KST) | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| TSMC July monthly revenue | Monday, Aug 10 | No consensus available |
| Cisco revenue ($100mn) | Early morning, Aug 13 | 168.2 |
| Cisco Adjusted EPS (USD) | Early morning, Aug 13 | 1.17 |
| Applied Materials Revenue ($100mn) | Early morning, Aug 14 | Around 89.5 |
| Applied Materials Adjusted EPS (USD) | Early morning, Aug 14 | Around 3.36 |
As a bellwether for semiconductor equipment, Applied Materials faces its first equipment sector scorecard amid a storage-driven revaluation phase. Applied Materials figures reflect the midpoint of company guidance ($8.95bn±$0.50bn revenue, EPS $3.36±$0.20) rather than analyst consensus. TSMC’s July revenue is a routine disclosure and is therefore evaluated on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis rather than against consensus.
After selling into the gap-up open, the market retraced 100 points from the daily low. The two market leaders diverged, while secondary batteries and oil refining filled the index's vacancy.
U.S. storage earnings revaluation spilled over into domestic large-cap memory, triggering a sharp decline in semiconductors and a program trading halt. Advancers outnumbered decliners, and the KOSDAQ closed above 800.
The return of Foreign Cash Equities and a rally led by large-cap semiconductors erased all losses from Aug 3. A 5-minute trading halt was triggered by early-session overheating.
Shares slid by-2.83% intraday on reports regarding Chinese memory, but recovered all losses by the afternoon. KOSDAQ sidecar triggered for the third consecutive day.
A sharp decline in large-cap semiconductors dragged down the index. Despite this, the number of advancing stocks outnumbered decliners.
Weekly cumulative (compounded, vs. July 31 Close): KOSPI -5.10% · KOSDAQ +10.98%. KOSPI fluctuated sharply on 4 out of 5 sessions yet finished the week below the July 31 level, while KOSDAQ preserved double-digit gains despite pausing in the late week. Semiconductor re-ratings hit only the KOSPI side this week.
Today’s daily low of 6,158.73 breached the previous support band (6,238–6,223) intraday, falling below the Aug 3 low of 6,223.29. However, the index reclaimed the band by the close, finishing at 6,258.77. The key takeaway today is the downward shift of the support floor from 6,223 to 6,158.
KOSPI 200 -0.83%The KOSDAQ’s decline remains steeper than the KOSPI’s today. Having fallen below the Aug 3 low of 981.48, the level that served as support until yesterday has now flipped to resistance. ※ KOSPI 200 figures are recorded based on closing prices only.
The index snapped a five-day winning streak and dipped below 800, though the decline was limited to-0.36%, and it managed to pare losses by 22 points from an intraday low of 776.60. The fact that the breadth (47.1%) has favored decliners for two consecutive days remains a heavier burden than the index level itself.
Disclaimer: This material is for reference purposes only, intended for market structure analysis and data synthesis; it does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments.