Two factors to monitor: whether U.S. storage stocks that fell in after-hours trading continue to decline in tonight’s regular session, and whether Foreign Cash Equities selling extends to a second day.
The 45:55 ratio is not a quantitative probability forecast, but the relative weight of upside/downside conditions identified at the 15:30 market close.Key Points for Next Trading Day).
Downside ① Storage.Devices for data storage. SanDisk handles NAND/Flash, while Western Digital (WDC) handles Hard Disk Drives (HDD). Both are benefiting from AI data center demand.Revaluation of earnings is ongoing. ① It remains to be seen if the after-hours losses of SanDisk and WDC will solidify in tonight’s regular session; notably, AMD’s after-hours losses held firm during the previous regular session. ② It is rare in the current cycle for heavy Foreign Cash Equities -KRW 3.3272tn selling to last only one day (selling on 8/3-KRW 2.82tn persisted for two days). ③ Institutional Investors have also been net sellers for four consecutive days, with selling concentrated in semiconductors. Upside ① Large-cap stocks outside the semiconductor sector (LG Energy Solution, Samsung Biologics) held up as the number of advancing stocks remained dominant for the fourth day. ② Foreign K200 futures, for the first time in seven days, +KRW 409.0bn turned to net buying. ③ Dow Jones at an all-time high.QRAU.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Total borrowing amounts and maturity composition will drive long-term yields. No increase in issuance, a decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and a record-high June current account surplus—external market factors remain favorable.
Added 5 more weight to downside compared to 50:50 yesterday. Conditions from Aug 4 were not met due to today plunge in large caps, and there is no reason to take downside lightly.
WTI is at $75.65(+0.57%), and international gold is at $4,324.70(+1.86%) in live trading. Tonight, we will confirm whether the after-hours losses of the two storage stocks hold during the U.S. regular session and if selling pressure emerges for SpaceX following the expiration of its lock-up period. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims are scheduled for release at 21:30.
The trigger itself was already on the 'earnings and indicators' checklist. What was overlooked was the extent to which the epicenter of the revaluation would broaden from AMD to storage (SanDisk/WDC), and the intensity with which that would immediately spill over to domestic memory leaders. Market reactions to U.S. storage and memory earnings are now a permanent fixture in the validation criteria for large-cap semiconductors. Furthermore, a 50/50 outlook leaves no room for being right or wrong. Moving forward, I will commit to a directional bias of at least 55/45 and will no longer use 50/50.
| Item | Consensus | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | Approx. 84.9 | 89.7 |
| Adjusted EPS (USD) | Approximately 34.9 | 39.25 |
| Next-quarter revenue GuidanceCompany Earnings Guidance: The forward-looking performance outlook provided directly by the company. It often moves stock prices more significantly than past earnings results.(Presented against Consensus) | 104.7~108 | 103~108 |
Revenue nearly quadrupled (increased 4x) year-on-year Gross marginThe ratio of profit after deducting the cost of goods sold from revenue. A higher value indicates a larger profit margin per unit sold.was 84.6% (based on reports). However, the market’s expectations were so tight that even whether the midpoint of guidance $10.55bn was above or below consensus varied depending on the source (LSEG $10.47bn · FactSet $10.8bn). The market was waiting for 'another significant upward revision,' and in its absence, regular session -5.4%followed by after-hours trading, down approximately -8%. Consumer segment revenue retreated by-32%, and Two-thirds (2/3) of the revenue increase stemmed from NAND pricingwas also perceived as a burden. ※ The estimates in the table are back-calculated using the reported beat rates (+5.7%·+12.3%).
| Item | Consensus | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | 36.8 | 37.47 |
| Adjusted EPS (USD) | 3.31 | 3.56 |
| Next-quarter revenue Company Earnings Guidance (vs. Consensus) | 40.6 | 41±1 |
Revenue, adjusted EPS, and next-quarter Company Earnings Guidance all beat expectations, and the gross margin reached54.4%. Nevertheless, the regular session -5.4%and after-hours trading -11.1%combined to result in a decline of approximately [ ] from the previous day's Close -16%. WDC is a hard disk drive (HDD) operator, not a NAND pure-play. Following the spin-off of SanDisk in February 2025, 89% to 90% of the company's revenue is derived from cloud services; this quarter, it shipped 231exabytes.KRW 1.0bn gigabytes. Shipments for data center storage are measured by capacity rather than unit volume.was shipped. Despite flawless results, the stock pulled back due to a 6-fold (6x) rally over the past 1 year (as of report).
The simultaneous sharp decline of the two is less about a single NAND cycle and more accurately read as a reassessment of the sustainability of storage pricing and demand.However, the possibility remains that thin liquidity in after-hours trading and sympathetic selling linked to SanDisk exacerbated the losses. The reaction in tonight’s regular session will be the deciding factor.
· Samsung Electronics KRW 230,500(-6.30%SK Hynix KRW 1,495,000-10.37%The two stocks that surged to the forefront yesterday stood at the very front of the sell-off today.SK Square -13.32%Samsung Electro-Mechanics -9.37%Samsung Electronics (Pref) -6.42%With the top five companies by Market Cap entirely composed of semiconductor and component stocks, the index lacked any underlying support.On the flip side, LG Energy Solution +2.83%· Samsung Biologics +1.54%KB Financial Group +0.47%KOSDAQ-listed Alteogen +6.0%Released this morning, June Current AccountThe net balance of transactions for goods, services, and primary income with foreign economies, compiled monthly by the Bank of Korea.recorded a surplus of $49.73bn, marking a record high for the second consecutive month. Goods exports $112.37bn surpassed $100.0bn on a monthly basis for the first time, driven by a+196.9% surge in semiconductor shipments.
While the index dropped by more than 4% amid anxiety over semiconductor earnings, macroeconomic data released that same morning showed semiconductors propelling exports to a record high. The market's discounting of stock prices appears to stem from skepticism about the durability of earnings rather than their immediate magnitude. Sector performance: Sectoral Strength and Weakness.Foreigners sold over KRW 3tn in cash semiconductors, and retail investors absorbed that volume entirely. In index futures, foreigners turned net buyers for the first time in 7 sessions, exact opposite direction from yesterday.
Breakdown of investor flows by participant and stock-specific trends Supply & Demand Structure.The brunt of the sharp decline concentrated on semiconductors, whereas internal market dynamics and foreign derivatives positioning were not as pessimistic as the index indicated.
The top bar represents Naver Finance investor data, while the bottom section on individual stock flows represents KRX stock-specific data as the standard. Due to differences in market scope, these figures were not aggregated or used to calculate weightings.
Today’s investor flows can be summarized in one sentence: Foreign investors offloaded semiconductors, while retail investors absorbed the supply. By KRX stock, foreign investors focused on SK Hynix -KRW 1.6936tn·Samsung Electronics -KRW 726.8bnSamsung Electro-Mechanics -KRW 546.8bn.was released. SK Hynix alone accounted for41% of the net selling, with the top five names representing77%(based on the aggregate of net-sold stocks). On the other side, retail investors bought SK Hynix. +KRW 2.0393tn·Samsung Electronics +KRW 970.9bn.as a primary buyer. Foreign investors’ sell-side volume is being absorbed by retail investors on a stock-by-stock basis. Meanwhile, foreign investors shifted back to a net buying position in index futures for the first time in seven sessions.
| Market | Trading value | Compared to the 5-day average |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | KRW 25.85tn | 78% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW 6.11tn | 111% |
Despite a sharp plunge with over KRW 3tn turnover, KOSPI trading value stayed below the 5-day average, as July 31’s historic peak volume remained included. Starting next trading session, July 31 drops out of the 5-day window, lowering the baseline itself.
Foreign Investors pivot to net selling after a single session, offloading three semiconductor stocks. Retail Investors step back in as buyers after a one-day hiatus.
Foreign Investors return to net buying after two sessions, focusing on large-cap semiconductors. Retail Investors engage in profit-taking.
All three investor groups maintained their directional stance, though volumes contracted sharply. The focus of selling has shifted toward Samsung Electronics, led by institutional investors.
Foreign and institutional investors shifted to net selling, while retail investors stepped in as buyers for the first time in four sessions.
Foreign investors net buyers for a second consecutive day on an unusually large scale. Record-breaking surge (+17.91%)
Cumulative net buying over five trading sessions (07.31~08.06): Retail Investors -KRW 0.64tn / Foreign Investors +KRW 2.17tn / Institutional Investors -KRW 1.75tn.
The cumulative Foreign Investor net buying of +KRW 2.17tn is driven entirely by the single session on July 31 (+KRW 7.24tn). Looking only at the four sessions this week, Foreign Investors are net sellers of -KRW 5.07tn. As July 31 drops out of the rolling window in the next trading session, the cumulative sign is likely to shift significantly—a classic "window-shifting" effect. (Source: Naver Finance, Investor Breakdown by Date)
※ Today, characterized by foreign cash equities selling and futures buying, is a mirror image of yesterday, when foreign cash equities buying coincided with futures selling. Whether this futures buying represents a liquidation of the previous six days of selling or a shift in direction cannot be determined from a single day's data. KOSDAQ program trading. -KRW 172.5bn(Arbitrage +KRW 31.0bn· Non-arbitrage -KRW 203.4bn). Since program trading is a channel already captured within investor-specific flows, it is not additive to foreign and institutional flows when calculating the total aggregate.
The trading patterns of the three investor groups are mirror images of one another. The top four stocks sold by Foreign Investors and the top four bought by Retail Investors belong to the same semiconductor group, as do the top names sold by Institutional Investors. Among the top buys by Foreign Investors, even Kia, the leader, only reached +KRW 22.5bn. It was a day where the weight of semiconductor selling overwhelmingly eclipsed buying. From Institutional Investors absorbing the Samsung Electro-Mechanics shares offloaded by Foreign Investors at +KRW 95.9bn, to Retail Investors’ top sells consisting of consumer and biotech stocks that rose today—such as Celltrion and LG Household & Health Care—all data points trace the destination of capital exiting the semiconductor sector. (KRX Investor Trading Data · KOSPI & KOSDAQ Aggregate · 2026.08.06)
Of the 79 sectors, 51 advanced, 1 remained unchanged (flat), and 27 declined. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals, cosmetics, internet & catalog retail, healthcare providers & services, and biotechnology (+3.89%), none of which overlap with the semiconductor space. Non-ferrous metals benefited from the continued strength in international gold prices. On the downside, semiconductors and semiconductor equipment -8.03%ranked at the very bottom of the 79 sectors, while electronic equipment & instruments, electrical equipment, and communications equipment (-2.98%), which led the market yesterday, shifted directly to the bottom of the rankings. ※ Single-stock sectors (e.g., tobacco +3.81% ) and the 'others' category, which aggregates 1,532 stocks (-2.55%) are excluded from the ranking analysis.
| Name | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| SK Hynix | Ticker | -10.37% |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Sector | -8.03% |
| S7 (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, etc.) | Theme | -7.41% |
| Samsung Electronics | Ticker | -6.30% |
| HBMHigh Bandwidth Memory (HBM). A type of DRAM that stacks multiple layers to facilitate high-speed data transmission; it is a core component for AI servers. | Theme | -2.66% |
| System semiconductors (non-memory semiconductors) | Theme | -2.52% |
| Semiconductor Materials and Components | Theme | -0.93% |
The cross-sectional profile and sequence reversed from yesterday. While the value chain—such as substrates and CXL—led yesterday with the bellwethers trailing, today, the bellwethers and representative baskets experienced deeper pullbacks. Out of the 171 stocks in the sector, 119 declined while 43 advanced; it was not a wholesale collapse, but the losses were particularly severe in large-cap stocks and representative baskets. Samsung Electro-Mechanics -9.37%and SK Square -13.32%also falls into this category.
The market has not dumped its entire semiconductor holdings; rather, it trimmed large-caps and representative baskets first. The next question is whether tonight’s U.S. regular session will cement this sequence.
| Name | Yesterday | Today |
|---|---|---|
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments (Sector) | +12.63% | -7.45% |
| Optical Communication (Theme) | +10.92% | -3.87% |
| Electric Wires (Theme) | +11.85% | -1.65% |
| 5G (Theme) | +7.02% | -2.54% |
| Micro LED (Theme) | +7.08% | -3.67% |
The frontrunners that drove the domestic market yesterday by supplying power and networking to AI data centers all pulled back within a single session. It is premature to declare a trend reversal, as many of these counters saw losses failing to reach half of yesterday’s gains, but the cost pressures from chip calculations have now spread to wiring.has extended to the wiring infrastructure.
| Name | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Non-ferrous Metals | Sector | +10.34% |
| Precious Metals (Gold/Silver) | Theme | +7.09% |
| Cosmetics | Sector | +5.58% |
| mRNA | Theme | +3.50% |
| Non-Life Insurance | Theme | +2.85% |
| Beneficiaries of a Stronger Won (FX tailwinds) | Theme | +2.28% |
Out of 219 themes 116 gainers, 1 unchanged (flat), 102 decliners. Today’s leaders are gold, silver, consumer staples, biotech, and insurance. Overnight, international gold prices surged by over 4%, reclaiming the $4,200 level (as of Aug 5), placing precious and non-ferrous metals at the forefront, alongside themes benefiting from the decline in the exchange rate. KOSDAQ investor flows show retail investors. +KRW 86.1bn·Foreign Investors -KRW 248.3bn· Institutional Investors +KRW 161.5bnas, Institutional investors have shifted back to the buying side.
The broader market did not collapse; rather, trading activity reflected a search for safe havens outside of the semiconductor sector. The 493 advancing stocks and the KOSDAQ’s close above the 800-point level serve as evidence of this rotation.
The assessment will be based on the Close direction and whether Foreign Cash Equities and futures flows converge in the same direction. As the employment report is released after the Korean market close, it is deferred as a variable for Monday, Aug 10.
| Target | Transaction timing | The market's answer |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. storage earnings plays | After-hours | -8%·-11.1% |
| Samsung Electronics · SK Hynix | KOSPI/KOSDAQ (Domestic market) | -6.3% · -10.4% |
| Power Cables · Optical Communications (Yesterday’s front-runners) | KOSPI/KOSDAQ (Domestic market) | -1.7% · -3.9% |
| Precious Metals · Cosmetics (Safe havens) | KOSPI/KOSDAQ (Domestic market) | +7.1% · +5.6% |
The conclusion of yesterday’s table was that the market has begun to distinguish between the spenders and the beneficiaries within the AI sector. Today, that distinction has narrowed even further. Within the beneficiary group, those positioned to benefit from 'price cycles' (storage and large-cap memory) were the first to be trimmed,followed by the associated infrastructure (power cables and optical communications). The remaining question is whether this revaluation will spill over into the demand narrative for HBM and AI servers. As the answer lies beyond a single day’s data, we defer it to our weekly report.
U.S. storage earnings revaluation spilled over into domestic large-cap memory, triggering a sharp decline in semiconductors and a program trading halt. Advancers outnumbered decliners, and the KOSDAQ closed above 800.
The return of Foreign Cash Equities and a rally led by large-cap semiconductors erased all losses from Aug 3. A 5-minute trading halt was triggered by early-session overheating.
Shares slid by-2.83% intraday on reports regarding Chinese memory, but recovered all losses by the afternoon. KOSDAQ sidecar triggered for the third consecutive day.
A sharp decline in large-cap semiconductors dragged down the index. Despite this, the number of advancing stocks outnumbered decliners.
Weekly cumulative (compounded, vs. July 31 Close): KOSPI -4.53% · KOSDAQ +11.38%The KOSPI index fluctuated between two sharp declines and two rallies over four sessions, ultimately dropping below the July 31 level, while the KOSDAQ rose for four consecutive days to surpass the 800 mark. The divergence in how the two markets reacted to the same set of market drivers defined this week's action.
The index gave back 301.88 points of its 340.81-point, two-day gain in a single session. Today’s Daily Low of 6,238.32 stopped 15 points above the Aug 3 Daily Low of 6,223.29. This narrow band serves as the primary support level for the current phase.
KOSPI 200 -5.36%The index underperformed the KOSPI’s decline. The concentration of selling in Large-Cap Stocks is evident in the index comparison. The Close of 982.92 sits just above the support level of 981.48. ※ As intraday highs and lows for today are unavailable, this is based solely on the Close.
For the first time in this rebound phase, it closed above 800. However, as the breadth was skewed toward the downside at 42.9%, we will monitor the recovery of breadth alongside the index in the next trading session.
Disclaimer: This material is for reference purposes only, intended for market structure analysis and data synthesis; it does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments.