2026.08.05 · DAILY MARKET REPORT
Thawing frozen sentiment, bit by bit.
KOSPI6,598.26 ▲3.76%
KOSDAQ799.59 ▲2.42%
Today’s Take
As oil prices and interest rates cool.
Returning hands.
Returning hands.
Two key points to monitor: whether Foreign Futures Net Selling halts after six days, and whether the KOSPI establishes a firm footing above 6,600.
The 50:50 ratio is not a quantitative forecast probability, but rather the relative weight of upside and downside conditions confirmed at the 15:30 market close.Key Points for Next Trading Day).
Upside ① Foreign Cash Equities shift to net buying, coinciding with a shift to program buying.BasisFutures price minus spot index. Positive indicates contango; negative indicates backwardation. The shifts are aligned in the same direction; ② Third consecutive session of upside dominance with large-cap semiconductors returning to lead; ③ All top 10 stocks by Market Cap closed higher. Downside ① Foreign Futures Net Selling of K200 continues for the sixth consecutive session with increasing volume; ② Profit-taking pressure following a two-day+5.45% rally (net selling by Retail and Institutional Investors, retracing 76.40 points from the Daily High); ③ After-hours declines in AMD and SpaceX, ahead of tonight’s ADP and.QRAU.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Total borrowing amounts and maturity composition will drive long-term yields.· ISM Services data; ④ Trading Value remains below the 5-day average.
We have reduced the upside bias by 5 from the previous day’s 55:45. While price and range conditions were met, derivatives and Trading Value failed to provide confirmation, and overnight earnings reactions have cooled. To maintain a 55 bias, there must be evidence to view the futures net selling as a simple hedge, which cannot be determined from a single day’s data.
WTI is at $76.20(+0.57%) in current trading, showing a slight rebound following yesterday’s sharp decline. The extent of the after-hours decline in AMD and SpaceX will be reconfirmed during the U.S. regular session. Tonight’s ADP, QRA, and ISM Services data are key variables for the August 6 domestic market.
The conditions revised on Aug 4, namely: If the breadth advantage persists for over two days and top-tier market cap stocks do not plunge, the bias tilts to the upside.This initial application proved correct. However, what was confirmed today were price and breadth, while the derivatives side continued in the opposite direction. As long as Foreign Futures net selling persists, we will not use the phrase "Foreign Investors have returned.
| Item | Consensus | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | 113 | 115.4 |
| Adjusted EPS (USD) | 1.61 | 1.66 |
| Data Center Revenue ($100mn) | 65 | 67 |
| Q3 Revenue Company Earnings Guidance | 125.3 | 130±3 |
Revenue YoY +52%, Data Center segment +107%. All four lines beat expectations, yet the stock is weak in after-hours trading -8%was observed (ranging from -8% to -9% depending on the timeframe). Adjusted Gross MarginNon-GAAP gross margin, excluding one-off costs. Exercise caution when comparing with GAAP figures due to differences in accounting standards.stood at 56%, up from 55% in the previous quarter, but remained flat at 56% in the Q3 guidance; during the regular session prior to the announcement, +7.7% elevated expectations converged.
· U.S. June JOLTSU.S. Department of Labor JOLTS report. The number of job openings serves as a gauge for labor market temperature. Job openings recorded 7,359,000 (735.9 ten-thousand), below expectations of 7,400,000 (740 ten-thousand) and May (revised down to ~7,500,000 / 750 ten-thousand), but layoffs remained subdued.· Oil prices fell for a third consecutive session on hopes for Hormuz negotiations. The KRW/USD exchange rate stood at 1,424.50(▼KRW 8.00), while the JPY/KRW Standard Market Exchange RateThe reference exchange rate announced daily, calculated as the weighted average of interbank transaction rates. The JPY/KRW basis for this reportalso stood at KRW 903.12(▼KRW 4.80)· SpaceX shares fell in after-hours trading despite beating consensus on both revenue and earnings in its first post-IPO report. The interpretation of these two results side-by-side Same AI, Different Balance Sheetslies in this.
· Samsung Electronics KRW 246,000(+2.50%) · SK Hynix KRW 1,668,000(+5.77%). The two stocks, which remained unchanged (flat) with a slight upward bias yesterday, moved to the front line in just one day.· Samsung Electro-Mechanics surged on reports of supplying camera modules for Tesla's Robotaxi +14.43%, while Taihan Fiberoptics advanced on reports of U.S. restrictions on Chinese data center component imports +18.57%(as of report)· All top 10 stocks by Market Cap advanced. SK Square +5.57%· Samsung Life Insurance +5.76%· Hyundai Motor +3.06%
If yesterday was a day when "everything rose except large-cap semiconductors," today was a day when "even large-cap semiconductors rose." However, it gave back 76.40 points from the daily high and failed to establish a foothold above 6,600. Sector performance: Sectoral Strength and Weakness.Foreign Investors resumed net purchases of semiconductor cash equities, but remained net sellers in index futures for the sixth consecutive session. They have yet to unwind their hedging positions on market direction.
Breakdown of investor flows by participant and stock-specific trends Supply & Demand Structure.The KOSPI has fully retraced the losses from August 3, yet foreign investors continued to buy semiconductor spot while extending their futures net selling to a sixth consecutive session.
Aggregate figures are based on Naver Finance investor data, while stock-specific data follows KRX investor flows. Prices have fully recovered, but foreign positions remain directionally divided.
The top bar represents Naver Finance investor data, while the bottom section on individual stock flows represents KRX stock-specific data as the standard. Due to differences in market scope, these figures were not aggregated or used to calculate weightings.
Both the capital that brought the market to the threshold and the reasons for the stall at that threshold lie in investor flows. By KRX stock, foreign investors focused on SK Hynix +KRW 659.6bn·Samsung Electronics +KRW 577.8bn, pouring KRW 1.2374tn into these two stocks alone. On the other side, retail investors offloaded SK Hynix -KRW 614.7bn, while institutional investors dumped Samsung Electronics -KRW 517.4bnfor a second consecutive day. The volume bought by foreign investors almost perfectly offsets the volume offloaded by retail and institutional investors. While foreign investors have resumed accumulating semiconductors, they have yet to unwind their hedge on index direction (futures net selling).
| Market | Trading value | Compared to the 5-day average |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | KRW 25.66tn | 68% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW 6.38tn | 116% |
While prices have recovered to pre-plunge levels, KOSPI trading value remains below the 5-day moving average. However, this baseline is skewed higher by the record-high volume on July 31 and the sharp sell-off on August 3. We refrain from labeling this a "liquidity-starved recovery," with a definitive 20-day comparative analysis to follow in our weekly report.
Foreign investors returned to net buying after two sessions, this time targeting large-cap semiconductors. Retail investors halted their two-day buying streak to lock in profits.
All three investor groups maintained their directional stance, though volumes contracted sharply. The focus of selling has shifted toward Samsung Electronics, led by institutional investors.
Foreign and institutional investors shifted to net selling, while retail investors stepped in as buyers for the first time in four sessions.
Foreign investors net buyers for a second consecutive day on an unusually large scale. Record-breaking surge (+17.91%)
Foreign investors shift to net purchases for the first time in four sessions. The starting point of the current rebound phase.
5-day cumulative (07.30~08.05): Retail investors -KRW 5.41tn / Foreign Investors +KRW 6.84tn / Institutional Investors -KRW 1.57tn.
The bulk of the cumulative +KRW 6.84tn in foreign net buying occurred on a single day, July 31 (+KRW 7.24tn). As long as that single day remains in the window, the cumulative figure appears larger than the actual underlying trend. Looking at the three sessions this week alone, foreign investors are net sellers of -KRW 1.74tn. (Source: Naver Finance, Investor Breakdown by Date)
※ The shift to program trading buying and the change in basis align with the return of Foreign Cash Equities. However, this coincides with Foreign Futures Net Selling; whether this selling represents a pure bearish bet or is attached to cash buying as a hedgeReducing the risk of loss on held assets through offsetting trades. Buying cash equities while selling futures mitigates directional index risk.—or arbitrage trading—cannot be determined from a single day's data. KOSDAQ program trading -KRW 260.3bnmoved in the opposite direction of the KOSPI. Since program trading is a channel included in Investor Flows, it is not additive to Foreign Investors and Institutional Investors flows when calculating the total aggregate.
Today’s market intersection centers on the two semiconductor giants. Foreign Investors accumulated positions in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while Retail Investors offloaded SK Hynix and Institutional Investors sold Samsung Electronics. Institutional selling of Samsung Electronics marks a second consecutive session, following yesterday’s -KRW 927.9bn. Foreign Investors’ top net-selling list includes components and optical communication stocks that surged today, such as LG Innotek and Taihan Fiberoptics. The market profile shows a rotation: accumulating large-cap semiconductors while trimming exposure to peripheral stocks that had surged today. (KRX Trading Data by Investor Type · Total Equity Market · 2026.08.05)
Out of 79 sectors, 68 advanced, 1 remained unchanged (flat), and 10 declined. The top five sectors—Electronic Equipment & Instruments, Electrical Equipment, Communications Equipment, Electronic Products, and Energy Equipment & Services (+7.96%)—are all tied to AI data center equipment and components. Life Insurance (+5.56%), Construction (+5.48%), and Shipbuilding (+5.32%) and Machinery (+5.30%) followed. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment rose from 63rd place yesterday to 15th ( +4.09%) (158 gainers vs. 8 decliners out of 171 stocks). Excluding Gaming & Entertainment and Household Durables, the decliners saw losses within1%, concentrated primarily in domestic consumer goods such as Department Stores and Beverages. ※ Single-stock sectors (Tobacco +0.23%· Office Electronic Products +2.26% , etc.) are excluded from the ranking descriptions.
| Name | Classification | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor substrates | Theme | +7.96% |
| CXL | Theme | +7.07% |
| SK Hynix | Ticker | +5.77% |
| HBM | Theme | +4.58% |
| Semiconductor Equipment | Theme | +4.50% |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Sector | +4.09% |
| Samsung Electronics | Ticker | +2.50% |
The sector strength rankings above merely list industries vertically, which creates the illusion that the entire sector rose in unison. A deeper look reveals a different order: the value chain—including substrates, CXL, and HBM—is leading, while the two bellwethers are following. The sector itself moved from 63rd place yesterday (+0.62%) to 15th place,with 158 out of 171 stocks posting gains. While Materials, Parts, and Equipment Suppliers continued their rally, the key difference today is that the bellwethers have joined the momentum.
Yesterday’s "rally without a leader" has shifted to a "rally with a leader" today. The market’s response to the overnight earnings-driven after-hours decline provided the answer (the interpretation is. Overnight earnings).
| Theme | Bundle | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Cables | Power & Utilities | +11.85% |
| Optical Communication | Connectivity | +10.92% |
| Micro LED | Components | +7.08% |
| 5G | Connectivity | +7.02% |
| LPG | Energy | -1.23% |
| Film | Content | -1.53% |
| Gaming | Content | -1.54% |
| Oil refining | Energy | -2.16% |
Out of 219 themes 207 up, 12 down. The front row concentrated on providers of power and connectivity for AI data centers, while the back row comprised the flip side of the sharp drop in oil prices (all three oil refining stocks declined) along with gaming and film. The optical communications sector was buoyed by reports of U.S. restrictions on imports of Chinese data center components (based on news reports).
| Ticker | Market | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Taihan Fiberoptics | KOSPI | +18.57% |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | KOSPI | +14.43% |
| Samsung Life Insurance | KOSPI | +5.76% |
| SK Square | KOSPI | +5.57% |
| Hyundai Motor | KOSPI | +3.06% |
| Alteogen | KOSDAQ | +3.75% |
Samsung Electro-Mechanics was buoyed by reports of a camera module supply deal for Tesla’s Robotaxi, while Alteogen saw reports of a technology export contract valued at up to $0.365bn. The performance of the two semiconductor giants is detailed in the table above, and all top 10 stocks by market cap closed higher. KOSDAQ investor flows were driven by retail investors +KRW 394.3bn·Foreign Investors -KRW 297.7bn· Institutional Investors -KRW 110.2bnas, Institutional investors, who were the sole net buyers yesterday, reversed course to net selling after just one session.
Capital allocated to AI investment is expanding beyond chips into electricity, transmission lines, and substrates. Today’s market leaders reflect this wiring diagram.
Of the four pillars set by the weekly report, component diffusion has been established, and Foreign Investors have met about half the criteria solely in the cash market. No definitive signals have yet been received regarding futures and long-term yields.
The verdict will be determined by whether the direction of the Close aligns with the unified direction of Foreign Cash Equities and Futures flows. Since ADP, QRA, and ISM Services are released after the domestic market close, they are designated as variables for the August 6 session.
| Item | Consensus | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($100mn) | 69.3 | 78.1 |
| EPS (USD) | -0.23 | -0.09 |
Revenue +92%Starlink subscribers have doubled to 12 million, with a backlog of $47.5bn(based on media reports). By segment, Connectivity recorded $4.29bn and AI recorded $2.56bn, while the AI segment posted an operating loss of $1.26bn. Despite this, the stock fell in after-hours trading. This was due to an expansion in capital expenditures and August 6th Lock-up period expiration.The lifting of lock-up restrictions that prevent major shareholders and Institutional Investors from selling shares for a set period post-IPO. This expiration date may introduce selling pressure.caution ahead of the event, making it an impure case for earnings assessment. The EPS estimate range has widened from -$1.26 to +$0.33, weakening the significance of the baseline.
| Target | Transaction timing | The market's answer |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir, Caterpillar | U.S. regular session | Down+30%·+5.60% |
| Korean Semiconductors · Cables · Optical Telecom | KOSPI/KOSDAQ (Domestic market) | +4.1% ~ +11.9% |
| AMD | After-hours | Down-8% |
| SpaceX | After-hours | Decliners |
Those rewarded are Palantir and Caterpillar, which have proven their demand, and the Korean supply chain (semiconductors and semiconductor equipment +4.09%·optical communications +10.92%· Power cables +11.85%) are the beneficiaries. Those penalized include AMD, whose growth scale and pace of margin improvementmargin improvement pace are being recalculated, and SpaceX, which is burdened by factors outside of earnings. The market is not doubting AI investment; rather, within AI itself, it has begun to differentiate between those spending the capex and those translating that money into revenue and margins. The current front-runners in the domestic market—power cables, optical communications, substrates, and HBM—represent the Korean side of the equation.
The return of Foreign Cash Equities and a rally led by large-cap semiconductors erased all losses from Aug 3. A 5-minute trading halt was triggered by early-session overheating.
Shares slid by-2.83% intraday on reports regarding Chinese memory, but recovered all losses by the afternoon. KOSDAQ sidecar triggered for the third consecutive day.
A sharp decline in large-cap semiconductors dragged down the index. Despite this, the number of advancing stocks outnumbered decliners.
Weekly cumulative (compounded, vs. July 31 Close): KOSPI +0.04% · KOSDAQ +11.09%The KOSPI returned to its starting point in three days, while the KOSDAQ maintained its weekly gains. The record for this week shows that the days of index recovery and the entities driving them shifted daily.
KOSPI 200 +3.86%outperformed the KOSPI index, with 140 constituents advancing against 53 declining. The shift toward a large-cap-led market is also evident in the index comparison.
The index reclaimed the 800 level intraday but closed below it. Following a four-day winning streak, securing the 800 level remains the next hurdle.
Disclaimer: This material is for reference purposes only, intended for market structure analysis and data synthesis; it does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments.