2026.08.11
Sung Oh Daily Report
One Ship
Pulled the Sea Along
Today's One-Line Take
One ship on the ripples.The waters ahead are still dark.
KOSPI6,345.53 ▲0.73%
KOSDAQ857.84 ▲0.39%
Of the three paths laid out yesterday, “Return of Large Caps” played out almost exactly. The condition had only required foreign selling to narrow, but foreigners actually turned net buyers, while Samsung Electronics +4.13% led the move. However, the 6,365–6,394 band was cleared intraday and then lost by the close, so that condition was only half met. It is also worth recording that three of the four downside conditions failed. The direction was right, but the precision of the conditions was not high.
| Item | 08.07 | 08.10 |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 26,690.62 | 26,605.36 |
| SOXPhiladelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a key gauge of global semiconductor stocks | 12,356.79 | 11,993.86 |
| U.S. 10Y (%) | 4.660 | 4.699 |
| WTI ($) | 78.18 | 82.13 |
Talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz stalled, while Yemen's Houthi rebels reportedly attacked Saudi Arabia's Jazan refining facilities with drones. As oil rose, inflation concerns returned and the U.S. 10-year yield rose with them. Intel announced a $15bn common-stock offeringA company issues new shares to raise cash from investors. The increased share count dilutes existing shareholders' ownership., sending the stock -4.06%. The company said proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures and working capital. SOXPhiladelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a key gauge of global semiconductor stocks −2.94% erased the prior session's +2.56% gain in full and closed below its Aug. 6 level of 12,048.69.
| Item | Amount ($100mn) | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 213 | +45.3% |
| Semiconductors | 99.5 | +155.4% |
| Imports | 195 | +23.1% |
There were 7.0 working days, unchanged from a year earlier, and semiconductors alone accounted for 46.8% of total exports. Both total exports and semiconductor exports were record highs for the first ten days of August. Large-cap semiconductor stocks began rising after the 09:34 release. Samsung Electronics led at KRW239,500 (+4.13%) · Samsung Electronics preferred KRW180,200 (+4.77%), while SK Hynix KRW1,425,000 (+0.35%) remained near flat.
· On the other side stood yesterday's leaders: LG Energy Solution KRW354,500 (-3.54%) · Alteogen KRW327,500 (-5.9%) · Korea Aerospace Industries KRW135,500 (-12.1%)
Samsung Electronics was at the center of the index rise. KOSPI200 gained +0.98%, more than the KOSPI, telling the same story. For sector-level strength and weakness, see Sector Strength & Weakness below.Foreign investors, who sold KRW1.0164tn of Samsung Electronics yesterday, bought back KRW584.1bn today; retail, which had absorbed KRW842.2bn yesterday, sold KRW638.4bn. The two groups reversed their buy/sell directions almost exactly in one day.
For investor-level amounts and stock-level flows, see Flow Structure below.Index +0.73% was similar in size to yesterday's +0.65%, but the internal picture was very different. The number of advancing sectors fell from 57 of 79 to 45, and the share of advancing stocks narrowed from 76.5% to 62.0%.
The bars above use Naver Finance investor data; the stock-level flows below use KRX stock-level investor data . Because the market scopes differ, the figures are not summed and no cross-market shares are calculated.
KOSPI foreign net buying of +KRW44.0bn marked a modest return to net buying after three straight selling sessions (Naver Finance investor-level data). In KRX stock-level data, the split was stark: Samsung Electronics ranked No. 1 in foreign net buying at +KRW584.1bn, while SK Hynix ranked No. 1 in net selling at −KRW298.5bn. Samsung Electro-Mechanics −KRW47.1bn and LG Electronics −KRW42.7bn were also net sold. Retail took the opposite side, selling Samsung Electronics by −KRW638.4bn and buying SK Hynix by +KRW183.4bn. Yesterday's top foreign net-sell name became today's top foreign net-buy name. The buyers and sellers swapped places in one day.
| Market | Turnover | vs. 5-Day Average |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | KRW21.59tn | 88% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW6.75tn | 110% |
KOSPI turnover recovered from 72% to 88% of its five-day average, while KOSDAQ eased from 122% to 110%. In absolute terms, KOSPI turnover also rose from KRW18.84tn to KRW21.59tn. The trading-activity tilt toward KOSDAQ seen yesterday narrowed in just one day.
Foreign investors turned net buyers after three straight sessions of selling. All three investor groups posted net flows below KRW100bn. Institutions bought +KRW30.0bn for a third straight session, while retail switched to net selling at −KRW71.0bn.
Foreign selling had extended to a third session and again exceeded KRW1tn, concentrated in three large IT names. Institutions bought for a second straight session.
Foreign selling continued for a second straight session at roughly 26% of the prior day's amount; institutions turned net buyers for the first time in five sessions
Foreign investors switched back to selling after one session, targeting three semiconductor names. Retail turned back into the absorbing buyer after one session
Foreign investors returned to net buying after two sessions, this time buying large-cap semiconductors. Retail took profits
Five-session cumulative flow (Aug. 5–Aug. 11): Retail +KRW3.25tn / Foreign −KRW4.19tn / Institutions +KRW779.0bn. As the Aug. 4 figure of −KRW0.37tn dropped out of the window and today's +KRW0.04tn entered, cumulative foreign selling narrowed from −KRW4.61tn to −KRW4.19tn. Institutions extended their buying streak to three sessions, lifting their five-day cumulative net buying to KRW779.0bn. (Naver Finance investor-level data)
※ The three-day pattern of foreign cash selling + futures buying shifted today, with both legs pointing to buying. Institutional futures also aligned in the same direction for the first time in three sessions. KOSDAQ Program TradingAutomated orders that buy or sell multiple stocks at once; an important channel for index and flow moves was −KRW311.4bn, far larger selling than on KOSPI −KRW38.0bn. Program TradingAutomated orders that buy or sell multiple stocks at once; an important channel for index and flow moves is a channel already embedded in investor-level flow data, so it is not added separately.
Foreign investors' top net-buy name, Samsung Electronics, matched retail's top net-sell name exactly; foreign investors' top net-sell name, SK Hynix, was the top net-buy name for both retail and institutions. Yesterday, foreign investors and institutions bought Alteogen while retail sold it. Today retail +KRW78.8bn absorbed the stock while institutions −KRW55.5bn sold it. Samsung Electronics and Alteogen both saw the hands switch from yesterday. (KRX investor trading data,· entire stock market)
Of 79 sectors, 45 advanced, 2 were unchanged and 32 declined. That was 12 fewer advancing sectors than yesterday's 57. All four of yesterday's leaders moved to the back (Sector Read 02), while Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment rose from +0.30% to +2.52%, ranking 8th (Sector Read 01). At the bottom, Aerospace & Defense −5.97% had 21 decliners out of 33 stocks, with Korea Aerospace Industries—the sector's largest market-cap name—down −12.1% and accounting for much of the drag. Three Hanwha companies disclosed a combined 15.89% stake on Aug. 10 and are awaiting Fair Trade Commission merger review. A report citing Yuanta Securities said Hanwha's on-market purchases, which had helped lift the stock, would pause during the review period. The stock's short-sellingSelling borrowed shares to profit from a decline in the share price share was 35.1%, the highest in the market. ※Single-stock sectors and “Other” are excluded from ranking commentary.
| Name | Classification | Change |
|---|---|---|
| HBMHigh Bandwidth Memory. Memory that stacks multiple layers to widen data pathways, used in AI servers. | Theme | +2.86% |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Sector | +2.52% |
| Semiconductor Equipment | Theme | +2.51% |
| System Semiconductors | Theme | +2.38% |
| Leading Semiconductor Stocks (Production) | Theme | +1.97% |
| S7A thematic basket grouping seven large-cap semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix(Large-Cap Semiconductors) | Theme | +1.95% |
| Semiconductor Materials/Components | Theme | +1.85% |
Yesterday, 159 of 171 stocks advanced, yet the sector index rose only +0.30%. Today, the number of advancers fell to 122, but the index rose +2.52%. Gains in materials, parts & equipment themesA Korean shorthand for materials, parts and equipment suppliers serving large memory-chip makers were far smaller than yesterday's (+7–8%). For a second straight day, the sector index was determined by which side the heaviest stocks were on. Short sellingSelling borrowed shares to profit from a decline in the share price totaled KRW1.69tn on KOSPI, or 5.6% of combined KRX+NXT turnover, slightly above yesterday's 5.4%.
Even if most materials, parts & equipmentA Korean shorthand for materials, parts and equipment suppliers serving large memory-chip makers names rise, the sector index may not; and even if fewer of them rise, the index can still advance. The sector index is ultimately driven by its heaviest constituents.
| Sector | 08.10 | 08.11 |
|---|---|---|
| Nonferrous Metals | +10.01% | -0.63% |
| Biotechnology | +9.56% | -2.89% |
| Communications Equipment | +8.87% | -1.66% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | +7.11% | +0.77% |
The growth-stock areas that rose together yesterday moved to the back today. The theme rankings told the same story. Optical Communications, which ranked No. 1 yesterday at +10.44%, fell to −2.95% today and ranked 218th. Flows also reversed from yesterday. On KOSDAQ, foreign investors sold −KRW358.0bn and institutions −KRW97.0bn, while retail absorbed the supply with +KRW435.0bn of net buying. Yesterday, institutions and foreign investors bought while retail sold.
It is too early to conclude that yesterday's surge was only a one-day move. But it is clear that the hands that pushed prices higher yesterday sold today.
| Name | Classification | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gas Utilities | Sector | +1.49% |
| Energy Equipment & Services | Sector | +1.37% |
| LPGLiquefied petroleum gas: propane, butane and similar fuels compressed into liquid form, with prices that tend to move alongside crude oil(LPG) | Theme | +1.36% |
| Oil & Gas | Sector | +1.20% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | Sector | -0.71% |
| Chemicals | Sector | -1.76% |
| Tires | Theme | -1.95% |
Oil sellers rose while oil users fell. But the magnitude was shallow. Gas Utilities, the strongest sector, rose +1.49%, while Tires, the weakest, fell -1.95%. Chemicals -1.76% also had 71 advancers and 41 decliners among 123 stocks, so the weakness was not as broad as the sector index alone suggests. The three-stock Refining theme rose only +0.44%, and with just three constituents its daily return can be exaggerated.
Relative to the size of the oil move, the domestic sector impact remains limited. The next checkpoint is how rates move after the night of Aug. 12 CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics .
55:45 is not a quantified forecast probability. It represents the relative weight of upside and downside conditions confirmed as of the 15:30 market close.
Upside ① Aug. 1–10 semiconductor exports rose +155.4% YoY, a record high for the first ten days of August ② Foreign cash equities turned to +KRW44.0bn net buying after three straight sessions of selling ③ Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment rose from +0.30% yesterday to +2.52% today, ranking 8th ④ KOSPI turnover recovered from 72% to 88% of its five-day average ⑤ Foreign futuresKOSPI200 futures net-buy amount, KRX derivatives data; value basis buying extended to a fourth session, with institutional futures joining the same side for the first time in three sessions. Downside ① Foreign buying was concentrated in one stock. In KRX stock-level data, Samsung Electronics ranked No. 1 in net buying (+KRW584.1bn), while SK Hynix ranked No. 1 in net selling (−KRW298.5bn) ② The advancer ratio narrowed from 76.5% to 62.0% ③ Oil rose into the $82s and the U.S. 10-year yield rebounded to 4.699%, while the SOXPhiladelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a key gauge of global semiconductor stocks fell −2.94% ④ Foreign investors and institutions both sold KOSDAQ ⑤ U.S. July CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics remains ahead on the night of Aug. 12.
The assessment will consider the closing direction together with Whether foreign buying broadens beyond Samsung Electronics.
| Name | Release (KST) | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. July CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics MoM (%) | Night of Aug. 12 | consensusThe average of brokerage estimates +0.1~+0.2 |
| U.S. July CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics YoY (%) | Night of Aug. 12 | consensusThe average of brokerage estimates 3.4 |
| U.S. July Core CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics YoY (%) | Night of Aug. 12 | consensusThe average of brokerage estimates 2.5 |
| CiscoThe largest U.S. networking-equipment company. Its gear connects servers in AI data centers, so earnings are often read as a gauge of AI-infrastructure spending. Revenue ($100mn) | Early morning, Aug. 13 | consensusThe average of brokerage estimates 168.2 |
| CiscoThe largest U.S. networking-equipment company. Its gear connects servers in AI data centers, so earnings are often read as a gauge of AI-infrastructure spending. Adjusted EPSEarnings per share: net income divided by the number of shares outstanding. “Adjusted” means excluding one-off gains and losses.($) | Early morning, Aug. 13 | consensusThe average of brokerage estimates 1.17 |
| Applied MaterialsThe largest U.S. semiconductor-equipment company. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC all use its equipment to manufacture chips, so its results and outlook are read as an early indicator of the semiconductor-capex cycle. Revenue ($100mn) | Early morning, Aug. 14 | guidanceA company's own outlook for the next quarter 89.5 |
| Applied MaterialsThe largest U.S. semiconductor-equipment company. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC all use its equipment to manufacture chips, so its results and outlook are read as an early indicator of the semiconductor-capex cycle. Adjusted EPSEarnings per share: net income divided by the number of shares outstanding. “Adjusted” means excluding one-off gains and losses.($) | Early morning, Aug. 14 | guidanceA company's own outlook for the next quarter 3.36 |
CiscoThe largest U.S. networking-equipment company. Its gear connects servers in AI data centers, so earnings are often read as a gauge of AI-infrastructure spending. and Applied MaterialsThe largest U.S. semiconductor-equipment company. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC all use its equipment to manufacture chips, so its results and outlook are read as an early indicator of the semiconductor-capex cycle. are the front-line U.S. earnings releases this week. June CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was -0.4% MoM and +3.5% YoY; core was flat MoM and +2.6% YoY. consensusThe average of brokerage estimates The MoM figure differed by source between +0.1% and +0.2%, so it is shown as a range. Applied MaterialsThe largest U.S. semiconductor-equipment company. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC all use its equipment to manufacture chips, so its results and outlook are read as an early indicator of the semiconductor-capex cycle. Applied Materials' 8.95 and 3.36 are company guidanceA company's own outlook for the next quarter ranges (±$0.5bn and ±$0.20), so they differ in nature from analyst consensusThe average of brokerage estimates.
WTI was $83.55 (+1.73%), while gold was $4,422.30 (+1.39%) in live trading. Oil has risen from its finalized Aug. 7 close of $78.18 into the $83 range in two trading days. U.S. July CPIConsumer Price Index, the benchmark monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, due on the night of Aug. 12, covers an already completed inflation period and is unrelated to today's oil move. Whether the recent rise in oil adds pressure to inflation expectations and rates will be tested in subsequent data.
Foreign investors bought back Samsung Electronics after selling more than KRW1tn the previous day, bringing the largest market-cap stock to the front. SK Hynix stayed near flat, while yesterday's surging growth stocks moved to the back.
Rate pressure eased after U.S. July employment declined. KOSDAQ rose more than 6% within 50 minutes of the open, lifting growth stocks broadly, while mega-cap semiconductors took a breather.
Cumulative week-to-date return (compounded, vs. Aug. 7 close): KOSPI +1.39% · KOSDAQ +7.39%. Both rose on both days, but different parts of the market led. Monday belonged to KOSDAQ and small/mid caps; Tuesday to Samsung Electronics. Foreign investors sold KRW1.0164tn of Samsung Electronics on Monday and bought back KRW584.1bn on Tuesday.
Yesterday's 6,232.45 low broke intraday, but the index recovered above it by the close. The lower boundary is now the 6,232–6,214 band. The 6,365–6,394 band was cleared intraday but not held at the close, so it remains resistance; today's high is the next hurdle above.
KOSPI200 broke above 981.48, which had resisted for four sessions, turning that level into support. Its gain of +0.98%, larger than the KOSPI's, is the pattern of a day led by large caps. ※Recorded on a closing-price basis only.
KOSDAQ rose to 875.16 in the morning before retreating. It did close above yesterday's 855.38 high, but a new resistance level formed at 875.16.
Disclaimer: This material is for market-structure analysis and organization of decision-relevant information only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.