The direction was right, but the reason was different. All three internal-market signals cited for the upside persisted, yet the jobs report—excluded from the probability score—was what actually drove today's session. And the outcome of that report, which had been classified as a downside risk, worked in the opposite direction. The revised conditions introduced on Aug. 7 were applied for the first time today and worked as intended. Under the old conditions, the signal would have failed simply because both top market-cap stocks fell. But a decline of less than 0.5% cannot reasonably be called a sharp drop.
| Item | Consensus | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (10,000 persons) | +8.3 | -2.3 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Labor-force participation rate (%) | N/A | 61.4 |
May and June payrolls were also revised down by a combined 103,000 downward revision· The 4.1% unemployment rate came with a decline in labor-force participation to 61.4%, making it difficult to read as a straightforward improvement in labor conditions. U.S. equities nevertheless rose. The market first priced a reduced need for further rate hikes: the U.S. 10-year yield fell to 4.660%, and the Russell 2000 +1.10% outperformed the S&P 500 (+0.62%).
· The KOSPI's No. 1 and No. 2 names by market cap moved against the broader market: Samsung Electronics KRW230,000 (-0.43%) and SK Hynix KRW1,420,000 (-0.14%)· The next tier rose: Samsung Electronics preferred KRW172,000 (+1.12%), SK Square KRW949,000 (+1.06%), LG Energy Solution KRW367,500 (+2.08%), and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries KRW532,000 (+5.1%)· KOSDAQ leader Alteogen moved to the front at KRW348,000 (+14.1%)
The modest KOSPI gain despite very strong breadth was largely due to slight declines in its two heaviest stocks. For sector-level strength and weakness, see Sector Strength & Weakness below.Foreign investors sold KOSPI for a third straight session, with net selling again exceeding KRW1tn. The selling was once more concentrated in three large IT names, led by Samsung Electronics. Retail and institutions absorbed the supply, while foreigners were net buyers on KOSDAQ.
For investor-level amounts and stock-level flows, see Flow Structure below.Index +0.65% alone does not capture the scale of today's move. Of 79 sectors, 57 finished higher; of 219 themes, 214 advanced.
The bars above use Naver Finance investor data; the stock-level flows below use KRX stock-level investor data . Because the market scopes differ, the figures are not summed and no cross-market shares are calculated.
Foreign selling was again concentrated in three large IT names, led by Samsung Electronics. Samsung Electronics −KRW1.0164tn · SK Hynix −KRW410.3bn · Samsung Electro-Mechanics −KRW156.4bn. KRX all-stock market basis: Samsung Electronics accounted for 42% of net selling and the top five names for 69%. Concentration, which had eased to 23% and 37% yesterday, narrowed again. On the other side, retail bought Samsung Electronics for +KRW842.2bn, while institutions bought +KRW145.1bn . That helps explain why a stock sold by foreigners by more than KRW1tn fell only 0.43% at the close.
| Market | Turnover | vs. 5-Day Average |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | KRW18.84tn | 72% |
| KOSDAQ | KRW7.07tn | 122% |
In absolute terms, KOSPI turnover at KRW18.84tn was far larger than KOSDAQ's KRW7.07tn. The divergence was relative to normal levels: KOSPI turnover was just 72% of its five-day average, the thinnest in this phase, while KOSDAQ reached 122%, above average. Relative to normal activity, trading momentum tilted sharply toward KOSDAQ.
Foreign selling extended to a third straight session, and the amount again exceeded KRW1tn. Selling was concentrated in three large IT names; institutions bought for a second straight session
Foreign selling continued for a second straight session at roughly 26% of the prior day's amount; institutions turned net buyers for the first time in five sessions
Foreign investors switched back to selling after one session, targeting three semiconductor names. Retail turned back into the absorbing buyer after one session
Foreign investors returned to net buying after two sessions, this time buying large-cap semiconductors. Retail took profits
All three investor groups kept the same direction, but the amounts shrank sharply. The focus of selling shifted to institutional selling of Samsung Electronics
Five-session cumulative flow (Aug. 4–Aug. 10): Retail +KRW4.14tn / Foreign −KRW4.61tn / Institutions +KRW208.0bn. As the Aug. 3 figure of −KRW2.82tn dropped out of the five-session window, cumulative foreign selling declined, while institutions' two consecutive buying sessions turned their five-day cumulative flow positive. (Naver Finance investor-level data)
※ The combination of foreign cash-equity selling and futures buying has persisted for three sessions. One day's data cannot determine whether the futures buying reflects a directional turn or the unwinding of earlier short positions. KOSDAQ program trading switched to +KRW190.1bn net buying, the exact opposite of KOSPI's −KRW1.3679tn net selling. Program trading is already included in investor-level flow data, so it is not added separately.
Foreign investors' top three net-selling names—Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Samsung Electro-Mechanics—matched retail's top three net-buying names exactly, while institutions also bought the first two. Alteogen was the reverse: foreign investors bought +KRW40.3bn and institutions +KRW50.6bn, while retail sold −KRW90.9bn. (KRX investor trading data, entire stock market)
Of 79 sectors, 57 advanced, 1 was unchanged and 21 declined. The leaders were Nonferrous Metals, Biotechnology, Communications Equipment, and Life Sciences Tools & Services. Nonferrous Metals recovered in two sessions from last place on Aug. 7 (-7.23%). Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment +0.30% ranked 53rd, but the picture inside the sector was completely different (Sector Read 01). ※Single-stock sectors and “Other” are excluded from ranking commentary.
| Name | Classification | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Materials/Components | Theme | +8.06% |
| Semiconductor Equipment | Theme | +7.44% |
| Semiconductor Substrates | Theme | +7.41% |
| System Semiconductors | Theme | +5.59% |
| Power Semiconductors | Theme | +4.74% |
| S7 (Large-Cap Semiconductors) | Theme | +0.42% |
| Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Sector | +0.30% |
Declines in the No. 1 and No. 2 stocks by market cap diluted much of the rise in the rest of the sector. The seven-stock S7 large-cap semiconductor theme +0.42% shows the contrast clearly. Short SellingSelling borrowed shares to profit from a decline in the share price accounted for KRW1.36tn on KOSPI, or 5.4% of combined KRX+NXT turnover, down from 6.2% the previous session.
The sector index and the picture inside the sector diverged. Nearly all semiconductor materials, parts and equipment names rose, while the index was held down by declines in the two largest market-cap stocks.
| Name | Classification | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Optical Communications | Theme | +10.44% |
| Biotechnology | Sector | +9.56% |
| SpaceX | Theme | +9.17% |
| Communications Equipment | Sector | +8.87% |
| Aerospace | Theme | +8.84% |
| Fusion Energy | Theme | +7.80% |
| Robotics | Theme | +5.32% |
Growth-oriented themes—from biotech to aerospace, communications equipment and robotics—rose together. KOSDAQ leader Alteogen +14.1% was supported by BlackRock's Aug. 7 disclosure of a new 5.03% stake. Flows also diverged from KOSPI. On KOSDAQ, institutions bought +KRW566.1bn and foreign investors +KRW103.1bn, while retail sold −KRW672.9bn.
A setup similar to the Russell 2000 outperforming the S&P 500 overnight appeared domestically through KOSDAQ.
| Name | Classification | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Non-life Insurance | Sector | -1.36% |
| Shipping | Sector | -1.72% |
| Telecom | Theme | -1.79% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | Sector | -1.79% |
| Banks | Sector | -2.67% |
| Wireless Telecom Services | Sector | -2.71% |
Only 21 of 79 sectors and 5 of 219 themes declined. The top two laggards fell for different reasons. Banks weakened alongside the retreat in rate-hike expectations, with 8 of 11 bank stocks declining. Telecom, by contrast, generally benefits from lower rates, so its weakness was closer to relative underperformance as capital rotated into growth stocks.
The 21 declining sectors cannot be tied to one macro cause. Banks were driven by rates; telecom by capital rotation.
55:45 is not a quantified forecast probability. It represents the relative weight of upside and downside conditions confirmed as of the 15:30 market close.
Upside ① Advancers have led for six straight sessions, with breadth widening from 60.9% to 76.5%, the strongest in this phase ② U.S. July employment weakened, reducing rate-hike expectations ③ Institutions bought KOSPI for a second straight session and KOSDAQ by +KRW566.1bn. Downside ① Foreign cash-equity selling extended to a third session and widened to −KRW1.4887tn② KOSPI turnover was only 72% of its five-day average ③ Program selling continued for a third session and more than doubled from yesterday ④ U.S. July CPI remains ahead on the night of Aug. 12.
The assessment will consider the closing direction together with the breadth of foreign selling.
| Name | Release (KST) | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Cisco Revenue ($bn) | Early morning, Aug. 13 | Consensus 16.82 |
| Cisco Adjusted EPS ($) | Early morning, Aug. 13 | Consensus 1.17 |
| Applied Materials Revenue ($bn) | Early morning, Aug. 14 | Guidance 8.95 |
| Applied Materials Adjusted EPS ($) | Early morning, Aug. 14 | Guidance 3.36 |
TSMC reported July revenue today: TWD467.58bn,· year on year +44.7%· and +5.6% from June. Applied Materials' 8.95 and 3.36 are the midpoints of company guidanceA company's own outlook for the next quarter ranges (±$0.5bn and ±$0.20), so they differ in nature from analyst consensusThe average of brokerage estimates.
WTI was $78.44 (+0.33%), while gold was $4,415.20 (+1.72%) in live trading. Gold rose for a third straight session on weak employment and easing rate-hike pressure, moving above $4,400.
The low held above the Aug. 3 low of 6,223.29, lifting the lower boundary by one step. The first hurdle above is the 6,365–6,394 band; a break would put the Aug. 6 high of 6,550.94 as the next clear prior-high reference.
Its gain was only half the KOSPI's, preserving the pattern of a session weighed down by large caps. 981.48 has now acted as resistance for four straight sessions. ※Recorded on a closing-price basis only.
Because the market moved in one direction all day, no new upside reference level formed. The Aug. 7 high of 814.80 now remains as a new support level below.
Disclaimer: This material is for market-structure analysis and organization of decision-relevant information only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.