2026.08.10 ~ 08.14
SUNG OH· WEEKLY
Semiconductors
What Comes Next
A Higher Bar for EquipmentAutos Still Below the Index· Refining· DefenseNVIDIA Earnings on 8/26· U.S. July PCE Arrives the Same Day
KOSPI+11.49%6,258.77 → 6,977.94
KOSDAQ+8.24%798.81 → 864.65
Foreign Investors· KOSPI+KRW 6.54tnReversing Last Week's −KRW 5.93tn
Published 2026.08.15· 9 STORIES01 · The Week in Review ↓
01· THE WEEKThe Review Ends Here
01
What Came Back
was not sectors,
but one investor group
One thing carries from last week into next week.The reversal is confirmed · breadth broadened only on the final day.
- KOSPI +11.49%· KOSDAQ +8.24%
- Foreign investors drove the week's net buying · five-session purchases exceeded last week's KRW 5.93tn net selling
- Retail Investors −KRW 7.08tn · Institutions were below KRW 0.8tn at +KRW 0.78tn
- Final Weekly Data Large Caps +12.13%· Mid Caps +4.86%· Small Caps +4.01% · size separated what rose from what failed to rise
FOREIGN· Daily Foreign Net Buying in KOSPI
Mon 8/10−KRW 1.49tn
Tue 8/11+KRW 0.04tn
Wed 8/12+KRW 2.84tn
Thu 8/13+KRW 2.11tn
Fri 8/14+KRW 3.04tn
Center line = KRW 0· Buying expanded as the week progressed· Naver Finance investor-flow data
Foreign Investors+KRW 6.54tnReversal exceeded last week's −KRW 5.93tn
Retail Investors−KRW 7.08tnThe Other Side of the Reversal
Institutions+KRW 0.78tnNet buying for four days, then net selling on Friday
Market Breadth· 8/13 → 8/1437.0 → 74.8%Share of advancing KOSPI stocks· Doubled in One Day
KOSPI· Naver Finance investor-flow data. Buy-Side Sidecarwas triggered once in KOSDAQ on Aug. 10 and once in KOSPI on Aug. 12.
- Foreigners remained net sellers through Monday · Tuesday's KRW 44bn merely flipped the direction
- The trigger was the 09:34 preliminary export data that day · semiconductors +155.4%
- Expanded to KRW 2.84tn on Wednesday · after CoreWeave the night before·Supermicro earnings
- U.S. July CPI hit the Korean market on Thursday · PPI followed Friday · the rates path is in Section 03.
The direction turned before the inflation data · the data amplified the magnitude.
- KOSDAQ was a different week · Monday alone +6.97%triggered a buy-side sidecar at 09:50
- The following four sessions: +0.39%· 0.12%· 0.29%· and +0.38%, effectively flat · nearly all of the weekly gain was concentrated in one day
- Foreign investors in KOSDAQ net sold KRW 619bn
One Takeaway
The reversal is confirmed · breadth is not, yet.
On Wednesday, the strongest index-up day, only 41.9% of KOSPI stocks advanced; on Thursday, the share fell to a week-low 37.0%.
On Friday, the advancing share doubled to 74.8% even as the index gain narrowed · institutions switched to net selling in large-cap semiconductors.
The money lifting the index and the money lifting individual stocks were different · this contrast carries into Section 06.
Five Sessions on Record· Index and Flows
| Date | KOSPI | KOSDAQ | Advancing Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 8/10 | +0.65% | +6.97% | 76.5% |
| Tue 8/11 | +0.73% | +0.39% | 62.0% |
| Wed 8/12 | +3.68% | +0.12% | 41.9% |
| Thu 8/13 | +3.56% | +0.29% | 37.0% |
| Fri 8/14 | +2.42% | +0.38% | 74.8% |
| Investor | 8/10 | 8/11 | 8/12 | 8/13 | 8/14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Investors | +0.90 | −0.07 | −3.19 | −2.74 | −1.98 |
| Foreign Investors | −1.49 | +0.04 | +2.84 | +2.11 | +3.04 |
| Institutions | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.53 | +0.68 | −1.03 |
| Date | Turnover | vs. 5-Day Average | Short-Selling Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 8/10 | KRW 18.84tn | 72% | 5.4% |
| Tue 8/11 | KRW 21.59tn | 88% | 5.6% |
| Wed 8/12 | KRW 26.21tn | 112% | 4.1% |
| Thu 8/13 | KRW 34.45tn | 147% | 4.6% |
| Fri 8/14 | KRW 26.73tn | 106% | 4.2% |
| KOSPI returned above 7,000 for the first time in 15 sessions, reaching an intraday high of 7,010.86 on Aug. 14 · it gave back 32.92 points by the close. | |||
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S1
02· WEEK AHEAD8/18 ~ 8/21
02
Next Week's Map ·
A Week With
No Major Data
The big releases were concentrated in this week and are now behind us.The next trading week has only one set of minutes and one domestic release left.
The heavier date is the Wednesday of the following week.
What to Watch Next
DAILYDo institutions keep selling large-cap semiconductors?Section 04 · On Aug. 14, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were the No. 1 and No. 2 institutional net sells.
DAILYShare of advancing KOSPI stocks: weekly average above 50%Section 06 · The key evidence that a reversal has become broader participation.
8/20July FOMC Minutes · Breadth of the Hiking CampSection 03 · If support extends beyond three members, the hold advantage weakens.
8/26U.S. July PCE and NVIDIA earnings on the same daySections 03 · 04 · Rates and AI demand collide in a single session.
Market closed Aug. 17 for the substitute Liberation Day holiday· Only four Korean trading sessions.Indicators designed on a five-session basis must be redefined for the shorter period.
MinutesHawks→2-Year Yield→Growth Stocks
NVDAAI Demand→CAPEX→Semiconductors
NegotiationsOil→Inflation→Discount Rate
MACRO· July FOMC Minutes
Wed., Aug. 19 local time· Early Thu., Aug. 20 in Korea
Numbers
At the July meeting, the vote was 9–3· to hold. Hammack,· Kashkari and· Logan, three members, argued for an immediate 25bp hike
Policy rate: 3.50–3.75%· Minutes are released three weeks after the decision
If the hiking camp extends beyond three,
the hold advantage weakens· 2-year yield rebounds· Discount-rate pressure returns for growth stocks
If the majority confirms patience,
the September hold case firms· Semiconductors· Favorable for internet stocks
Next Inflection Point· U.S. July PCE ·
NVIDIA Earnings
Wednesday, Aug. 26· Not the next trading week, but the week after
Numbers
July PCE
The latest confirmed core PCE is for June +3.3%· Still above core CPI
NVIDIA
AI Capex· HBM· A single read on data-center demandFor semiconductors, Aug. 26 may matter more than this week's CPI
The latest confirmed core PCE is for June +3.3%· Still above core CPI
NVIDIA
AI Capex· HBM· A single read on data-center demand
PCE slows + earnings beat
Confirms both the case for a hold and AI demand· Favorable for all three areas in Section 04
PCE reaccelerates
September hike probability resurfaces· Growth stocks fall first
KOREA· 8/17 Market Holiday· Korea PPI· BOK Monetary Policy Board
Monday, Aug. 17· Friday, Aug. 21· Thursday, Aug. 27
Market Holiday
Substitute Liberation Day holiday· The next session after 8/14 is 8/18· With only four domestic trading sessions, five-day indicators require a reset of the measurement period
Korea PPI
Aug. 21· Domestic producer costs feed into corporate margins and the Bank of Korea's rate path
BOK Monetary Policy Board
Aug. 27· The U.S. core CPI threshold identified in Week 1 of August was exactly 2.5%· Neither above nor below · this question cannot produce a call
Three Calls for Next Week
- Does a market bought by foreigners alone persist?
Institutions flipped to KRW 1.0298tn of net selling on Aug. 14 · foreigners alone means reversal; both net buying means broadening. - Was the broadening only one day?
If the weekly average share of advancing KOSPI stocks exceeds 50%, apply Section 06's selection rule directly to sector calls. - Does oil reverse the inflation debate?
Aug. 17 U.S.–Iran negotiation deadline · ceasefire and Hormuz remain the checks · if oil rises again, Section 03's hold advantage narrows.
Schedule· Next Week and Beyond· Consensus shown where available
| Next Trading Week· 8/18 ~ 8/21 | |
|---|---|
| Mon 8/17 | Korea market closed· China July industrial production 4.9% (prior 5.3%)· Retail sales 1.5% (1.0%)· Fixed-asset investment −6.2% (−5.7%)· Japan preliminary 2Q GDP 2.1% (1.8%)· U.S.·Iran negotiation deadline· Check whether it is extended |
| Tue. 8/18 | U.S. July import prices 0.1% (0.3%)· Industrial production 0.3% (0.1%)· Housing starts 1.350mn (1.427mn) |
| Wed. 8/19 | Eurozone July final CPI 2.9% |
| Thu. 8/20 | July FOMC minutes reflected in Korea in the early morning· U.S. August Philadelphia Fed Index 25.0 (41.4) |
| Fri. 8/21 | U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, preliminary 53.5 (53.9)· Korea July PPI· U.S. congressional deadline for Apple's response |
| Beyond That· 8/26 ~ 8/31 | |
| Wed. 8/26 | U.S. July PCE· NVIDIA Earnings· Hyundai Motor CEO Investor Day |
| Thu. 8/27 | BOK Monetary Policy Board |
| Fri. 8/28 | CXMT earnings· U.S. employment reassessment via the QCEW census |
| Mon. 8/31 | MSCI August review applied at the close |
| Because Aug. 17 is a market holiday, the next trading week has four sessions. Figures in parentheses are prior readings. Some materials list the FOMC-minutes date as Aug. 19 and others as Aug. 20; the difference reflects the time-zone lag from a U.S. afternoon release into the Korean early morning · we use Aug. 20, the Korean market date. | |
Two Index Outlooks· Again, the direction is one-sided
| Source | View |
|---|---|
| Daishin· 8/14 | Holding 6,500–6,800 is key · if established, 8,500 corresponds to 7× 12-month forward P/E, then 9,700 to 8× · current forward P/E is 5.6× · forward EPS has risen to 1,218.3 points from 1,105.1 at end-June |
| Daol· 8/14 | First target around 7,300 points · based on V-KOSPI entering the 50-point range |
Among 36 research reports reviewed this week, only one Meritz bond report made an explicit downside case · the same observation as last week.
This does not mean downside risk is absent; it describes the distribution of the research we read · a one-sided consensus is itself something to verify.
Meritz's argument appears in Section 07.
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S2
03· RATESSeptember FOMC· Hold vs. Hike
03
Cooling Inflation,
Growth at the Boundary
Where did this week's five data points move the rate path?Not a revival of rate-cut expectations,
but a retreat in the additional-hike expectations that had briefly dominated.
- Five U.S. releases this week · plus last week's July employment report· July CPI· July PPI· July retail sales after the Korean market close· Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment on the night of Aug. 14
- Growth·Consumption → Weaker Case for a Hike
- Inflation Expectations·Long Yields → Move the Other Way
- What replaced the lost hike premium was not a cut premium · September now comes down to two choices: a hold or a 25bp hike.
The policy-rate signal leans toward a hold · long-term inflation still points the other way.
ⓐ July FOMC vote 9–3
ⓑ Policy rate 3.50–3.75%
ⓒ June core PCE +3.3%
Around the Employment Report55%July payrolls −23,00043~44%
After Inflation Releases51.7%CPI 44.1 → PPI32.4%
CME FedWatch Implied Probability of a 25bp Hike· Aug. 7, just before payrolls· Immediately after· Aug. 10 oil-price rise· Aug. 12 CPI· then Aug. 13 PPI. At the Aug. 14 close, the implied hold probability was 67%.
The important question is not whether it is 32% or 35%, but the one-week reversal from hike-dominant to hold-dominant pricing. On Aug. 10, higher oil prices pushed the hike probability back to 51.7%. That shows how much room there is for another reversal.
Five Data Cards
Core CPI YoY+2.5%June +2.6%
PPI MoM0.0%Expected +0.2%
Nonfarm Payrolls−23,000Market expected an increase
Retail Sales MoM−0.6%Expected +0.1%
University of Michigan August Preliminary51.0Expected 54.5
1-Year Inflation Expectations4.3%July 4.2%
Five Data Cards· Full Table
| Item | July | How to Read It |
|---|---|---|
| CPI MoM· YoY | +0.1%· +3.4% | Slowed from +3.5% in June |
| Core CPI MoM· YoY | +0.2%· +2.5% | June +2.6%· 3-month annualized ≈1.6%· 6-month annualized ≈2.4% |
| Energy MoM | −1.5% | Still +14.7% YoY |
| Shelter MoM | +0.1% | The component that cooled the most |
| Medical Services· Airfares MoM | +0.6%· +2.2% | Services disinflation is still incomplete |
| PPI MoM· YoY | 0.0%· +4.7% | Energy −3.1%· Food −0.9% restrained the headline |
| Food· Energy· PPI ex Trade Services | +0.4%· +4.7% | Underlying pressure remains |
| Producer inflation did not disappear · energy simply took a month off, lowering only the headline pressure. | ||
| Item | July | How to Read It |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | −23,000 | Market expected an increase |
| May · June Revisions | Combined −103,000 | Earlier months revised down as well |
| Unemployment Rate· Labor-Force Participation Rate | 4.1%· 61.4% | Partly a result of lower participation |
| Wages YoY | +3.2% | Wage-driven inflation pressure remains limited |
| Retail Sales MoM | −0.6% | Expected +0.1%· June +0.2% |
| Motor Vehicles· Nonstore Retailers | −1.8%· −2.2% | The shift of Prime Day into June distorted the online category |
| Restaurants· Bars | +0.5% | Not weak enough to call it a collapse in consumption |
| University of Michigan August Preliminary | 51.0 | Expected 54.5· July 55.2· Current Conditions 51.8· Expectations 50.6 |
| 1-Year· 5-Year Inflation Expectations | 4.3%· 3.3% | July 4.2%· 3.3%· Only the one-year measure rose |
| Final Aug. 14 night release. Consumer sentiment fell far more than expected, yet one-year inflation expectations rose.· The case for a hold and the case for a hike appeared in the same release. | ||
Two Camps
Hold CampThe reasons to hike are disappearing
Evidence Core CPI 2.5%· 3-month annualized 1.6%· Shelter +0.1%· Payrolls −23,000· Retail sales −0.6%
Source iM: hold 60%· Daishin: 65.7%· Kiwoom: 67.6%
Implication A hike now would put additional pressure on an already weakening labor market
Hike CampWhat has not yet been erased
Evidence June core PCE 3.3%· Underlying PPI +4.7%· Medical services +0.6%· Three FOMC members argued for a hike
Source Eugene· sees a 40% hike probability remaining, citing the rebound in August oil prices
Implication If energy lowered July inflation, August can reverse that effect directly
Hold probabilities differ by source because snapshot times differ; the text uses the median. Eugene's report was written before the PPI release.
Signals Tilting Toward a Hold
- July PCE(8/26) core falls from June's 3.3%
- FOMC Minutes(8/20) hike support remains limited to three members
- U.S.–Iran agreement sends oil below $80
- 2-year yield holds in the low-4.1% range
Signals Tilting Toward a Hike
- Core PCE reaccelerates· above 3.3%
- August oil· Brent returns above $90 if negotiations fail
- Minutes show hike support broader than three members
- August CPI (9/11) shows reaccelerating services inflation
Caution· The boundary this week touched for the first time
Falling rates are not a positive forever
Payrolls −23,000 → CPI slows → PPI slows: a favorable sequence for growth stocks.
Aug. 14 retail sales at −0.6% touched the next boundary for the first time.
If consumption and employment weaken further, falling rates shift from a positive catalyst to confirmation of an economic slowdown.
A lower discount rate can be offset by lower earnings expectations.
The question for the next few weeks is not the exact hike probability. It is whether growth cools only enough to deliver a hold, or enough to cut corporate earnings as well.
The data were weak, yet long yields rose
- Immediately after retail sales, the 2-year· and 10-year yields both fell → but both closed higher
- 8/14 close: 2-year 4.18% (+2.7bp)· 10-year 4.70% (+5.0bp) · the back end rose more
- Front end · essentially flat even after pricing out part of the hike risk
- Back end · long-run inflation·and fiscal pressure were reflected together, in our reading · the 30-year auction yield at 5.216% (highest since 2001) is the evidence
Compressing this into “rates fell” erases the distinction.
U.S. equities the same day
- Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment 51.0 · far below the 54.5 expectation · while one-year inflation expectations 4.3%rose
- All three major indexes fell · Dow −0.20%· S&P500 −0.17%· Nasdaq −0.28%
- Russell 2000 closed at a record 3,068.42 · money left the former leaders while the laggards rose
Confirmation Sequence Through September
| Date· Indicator | If It Strengthens the Hike Case | If It Strengthens the Hold Case |
|---|---|---|
| 8/18· Housing Starts· Industrial Production | Demand remains strong | Housing· and production slow |
| 8/20· July FOMC Minutes | Hawks broaden beyond three members | Majority confirms patience |
| 8/26· July PCE | Core reaccelerates | Core continues to slow |
| 9/1· 9/3· JOLTS· ISM | Labor Demand· Services prices reaccelerate | Job Openings· Price pressures cool |
| 9/4· August Employment | Employment rebounds· Wage growth stays firm | Employment weakness persists |
| 9/10· 9/11· August PPI· CPI | Oil pass-through appears· Core reaccelerates | Disinflation extends |
| 9/15~16· FOMC | Decision | |
| The three heaviest checkpoints are Aug. 26 PCE · Sep. 4 employment · Sep. 11 CPI. The current Fed chair is Kevin Warsh (took office May 22) · Jerome Powell remains a governor. | ||
Transmission to Korean Sectors
| Sector | Transmission |
|---|---|
| Semiconductors· AI | A hold and lower market rates ease discount-rate pressure · for now, however, earnings expectations matter more than discount rates for price. See Section 04. |
| Banks· Insurance | Fading hike expectations are negative · a wider yield-curve spread is positive · if rates are falling because growth is slowing, higher credit costs can offset both |
| Motor Vehicles | Financing costs ease, but U.S. July motor-vehicle and parts retail sales fell 1.8% · the two forces pull in opposite directions. See Section 05. |
| Refining· Chemicals | Higher oil is a direct catalyst for refiners · but the same oil price also lifts U.S. inflation and long yields, feeding back into growth-stock discount rates |
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S3
04· LEAD SECTORSemiconductors
04
The Bar for
Good Earnings Has Risen
Demand is confirmed — so why is price not following?The fact that AI investment is rising
is no longer new information.
TSMC July Revenue+44.7%YoY· No deterioration in leading-edge demand
Semiconductor exports, Aug. 1–10+155.4%$10.0bn· Korea Customs Service· Total exports reached a record $21.3bn
Applied Materials, 8/14 Close−5.12%$507.18· Both earnings and guidance beat consensus
Industry data are strong · price is separate · the next variable is expectations, not the cycle itself.
- Semiconductors, Aug. 11–13 Top-ranked for three straight sessions · sector returns +2.52% → +5.98% → +5.15%
- Closing prices: Samsung Electronics KRW 274,500· SK Hynix KRW 1,645,000
- Last week, SK Hynix −17.23%· Samsung Electronics −12.00%occupied the bottom of 24 sectors
- Friday diverged: the advancing-stock share jumped from 37.0% to 74.8%, but Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment were the exceptions.
- Within the sector, 86 stocks rose and 77 fell, almost evenly split · that same day, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were the No. 1 and No. 2 institutional net sells.
The Benchmark This Week Set
Earnings beat and guidance rose · yet the regular session closed −5.12%.
Revenue $9.12bn (consensus $8.99bn) · non-GAAP EPS $3.50 (consensus $3.40) · guidance $10.25bn ±$0.5bn, more than 7% above consensus.
Yet the stock closed at $507.18, −5.12% · Broadcom −6% · Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −0.32%.
The stock had doubled in 2026 · about 29× estimated 2027 earnings · options already priced roughly a 7% move.
The Week 1 August order-book pattern appeared again, but the hurdle is higher this time.
Rising AI investment is already priced in. From here, three things move price: magnitude of the earnings beat · size of the guidance raise · breadth beyond mega caps.
Areas to Watch Next· In order of nearest confirmation date
Memory Majors· Answers arriving between August and September
Does an early shareholder-return announcement arrive by end-August?
- Daishin Securities, 8/13 · the only report in this batch to state dates explicitly
- Aug.–Sep.· Early shareholder-return decision· Samsung Electronics: at least KRW 150tn annually (up to KRW 200tn)· SK Hynix: at least KRW 80tn (up to KRW 100tn)
- Mid-to-Late August· Reconfirmation of cycle expansion· Server DRAM expected to grow more than 50% in 2027
- September· Next-year customer demand confirmed· Long-Term Contracts Allocation: Samsung Electronics·Micron 60–70%· SK Hynix around 50%
- Customer Advances More than 20% of total contract value · on a five-year contract, roughly one year paid upfront
- Even at the price floor, gross margin above 60% · the report's argument
- SK Hynix net cash: KRW 69.4tn at end-2Q
Samsung ElectronicsDaishin Buy · KRW 560,000· 8/13SK HynixDaishin Buy · KRW 3.20mn· 8/13
Equipment· Where the higher expectations are tested first
Do they fully absorb the U.S. equipment-stock decline on Aug. 18?
- Applied Materials · fell despite strong results · Korean equipment·and materials names absorb the move together on Aug. 18
- Evidence on the other side · TSMC July revenue maintained +44.7% YoY · no sign yet that order-stage demand is breaking
- Korea this week · Wonik IPS +7.6% on 8/13· HPSP +6.6%· Jusung Engineering +7.1% on 8/12· Wonik IPS +6.5%, rising alongside mega caps
Wonik IPSHPSPJusung Engineering
Substrates·Components· The place to test whether earnings spread beyond mega caps
Is it still stronger than the market on Aug. 18?· Do foreign investors buy it again?
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics, 8/13 +12.58% · drove the sector to No. 1 · up more than 14% intraday
- Catalyst · Morgan Stanley changed its top pick among Korean technology stocks· Target KRW 2.56mn → KRW 2.62mn
- On 8/14, the gain narrowed to +3.66% · No. 1 foreign net sell turned into· No. 1 retail net buy
- To count as evidence of earnings broadening, it needs at least two consecutive days
Samsung Electro-MechanicsMorgan Stanley target KRW 2.62mn· 8/13
Evidence That Strengthens the Case
- Early shareholder return within August confirmed in a filing
- Number of advancing stocks in the sectorimproves from Aug. 14's 86 vs. 77
- Foreign cash buying broadens beyond Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
- NVIDIA Earnings(8/26) raises the AI-capex outlook again
Evidence That Weakens the Case
- Institutional selling extends · SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the No. 1 and No. 2 institutional net sells on Aug. 14, remain there next week.
- Further declines in U.S. equipment stocks· The entire cycle's expectations reset lower after Applied Materials
- Only the two mega caps rise · equipment and substrate relative strength breaks again.
- 2027 server-DRAM outlook is cut· The first line of Daishin's thesis breaks
- Foreign futures selling expands· Aug. 14: −KRW 310bn, third straight day
Next Week
Aug. 18 equipment·and substrate reaction· Whether institutional selling continues· Number of advancing stocks in the sector
August
Early shareholder-return filing· Aug. 26 NVIDIA earnings· Aug. 31 MSCI review
3–6 Months
2027 server-DRAM volume· HBM4e transition· Disclosure of long-term contract allocation ratios
Evidence· Four Research Reports, Four Pieces of the Explanation
| Source | Thesis |
|---|---|
| Daishin· 8/13 | The decline since end-June was excessive· Early shareholder returns· and restored confidence in long-term contracts· HBM plus three demand signals normalize valuation from mid-to-late August |
| SK· 8/13 | AI compute is not a consumable — it is infrastructure becoming a financial asset · Amazon puts average break-even for servers·and networking equipment within three years · Even A100s launched six years ago have contracts secured through 2029 |
| Kiwoom· 8/11 | HBM remains in shortage, while commodity memoryhas passed its peak· 2027 HBM operating-profit forecasts: Samsung Electronics KRW 83tn· SK Hynix KRW 70tn |
| Eugene· 8/11 | NVIDIA Rubin Ultra cuts HBM capacity from 288 → 192GB while expanding the NVLink domain from 72 → 576 · AMD MI455X takes the opposite path with 432GB of HBM4 · opposite solutions to the same bottleneck |
| The first three argue for price recovery; Applied Materials' price reaction raises the conditions required for that recovery · the decision line is where the two stories meet. | |
Company names are those cited in the brokerage reports · not recommendations to buy specific stocks. Target prices are shown with their setting dates.
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S4
05· SECTORSThree Sectors to Watch Alongside
05
New Names at
the End of the Week
Sectors that moved to the front on Friday while semiconductors paused.Motor Vehicles· Refining· Defense
On final weekly data, all three still trailed the index. KRX Automobiles +9.00%· Energy & Chemicals +4.11%· K-AI Defense TOP5+ +6.47%all fell short of KOSPI's +11.49% · this section is not about this week's winners, but next week's candidates.
Motor Vehicles·Components· Rating B
Condition· Relative strength holds on Aug. 18· and parts move with Hyundai Motor, not Hyundai alone / Watch· Friday's gain is immediately reversed· U.S. consumption weakness broadens
- This Week· Aug. 14 Automobiles +6.20%(No. 2 of 79 sectors)· Auto Parts +5.25%(No. 4)· Hyundai Motor +8.24%· Hyundai Mobis +7.05%.
- Why Next Week?· If September hike odds fall, auto-financing costs ease. Korea also has a separate catalyst in the humanoid-robot supply chain.
- What the Market Doubts · In the same week, U.S. July motor vehicles and parts retail sales fell 1.8%. Rates are becoming more favorable, while sales are declining.
Hyundai MotorKiaHyundai Mobis
Refining·Energy· Rating B
Condition· Hormuz deadlock persists· Oil holds in the $80s or rises again / Watch· Oil immediately resumes its decline· Higher oil lifts only long yields
- This Week· Aug. 14 Oil & Gas +5.84%(No. 3)· Refining Theme +6.48%(No. 1 of 219 themes)· Lubricants theme +3.63%.
- Why Next Week? · Saudi Aramco's September OSP is a $2/bbl discount, the lowest in six years. Hana Securities estimates that a $1 discount improves S-Oil annual operating profit by about KRW 350bn. Aug. 17 was cited as the U.S.–Iran 60-day negotiation deadline · whether it is extended determines the pricing side.
- Oil Check· WTI fell to $81.25 (−2.4%) on 8/13 → then on 8/14 rebounded to $82.40 (+1.4%) · refinery stocks and crude moved in the same direction on Friday.
S-OilHanaSK InnovationHanaGS
Aerospace·Defense· Rating B
Condition· More advancing stocks within the sector· At least two leaders move together / Watch· The sector stops responding even to geopolitical news
- This Week · Defense rose +4.58% on Aug. 12 and +3.30% on Aug. 13, showing relative strength for two straight days. But on Aug. 11 it was −5.97%, the weakest sector, and on Aug. 14 it fell −1.63%.
- Why Next Week? · Middle East risk remained open, while Daishin Securities cites NATO's joint-procurement framework and Korea–NATO basic procurement agreement talks as reasons to expect greater earnings visibility for Korean defense companies.
- What the Market Doubts · Korea Aerospace Industries had the highest short-selling share on Aug. 13 and 14, at 33.3% and 45.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, Hanwha's three affiliates raising their stake to 15.89% and the FTC business-combination review are separating stock-specific pricing from the sector move.
Hanwha AerospaceKorea Aerospace IndustriesNo. 1 Short-Selling Share· 8/13·14LIG Nex1
Two Watchlist Names· Two We Are Not Rating Yet
| Sector | This Week | Why We Watch Them and the Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Telecom | Wireless Telecom Services −2.71% on 8/10 → by 8/14 +8.49% No. 1 sector· SK Telecom KRW 100,500, +10.32% | The largest ranking reversal of the week · A gauge of whether money rotates from cyclicals·and semiconductors into defensives·and dividend names · But the strong move was effectively only one day · If it still outperforms on Aug. 18, upgrade the rating; if it gives back immediately, remove it from the candidate list Hana Securities expects a U.S. upper C-band 160MHz auction in April 2027 · Too distant to use as a weekly condition |
| Banks·Insurance | Banks −2.67% on 8/10· Life Insurance +3.99% on 8/14· Non-Life Insurance +2.73% | The sector where lower hike odds most directly cut expectations · But a curve where the 2-year falls more and the 2s10s spread widens is not entirely negative for banks · The split depends on why rates are falling this time · Employment·and consumption weakness would later worsen credit costs and loan demand |
| Evaluation indexes use Naver Finance sector indexes· and KOSPI sector indexes·which are different series from KRX and therefore are not mixed in one table. | ||
Two With Dates Only
| Materials | View | Confirmation Date |
|---|---|---|
| ESS·Secondary Batteries | Global ESS battery shipments reached 461GWh in 1H, up 71%· North America reached 76GWh, up 83%· LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI North American shipments rose from 6 to 15GWh, lifting share from 14% to 20%· iM Securities, 8/13 | November U.S. midterm elections· EU Industrial Accelerator Act expected to take effect around year-end |
| Utilities | Qatari LNG imports have been zero tonnes since April· Of a 6.1mn-tonne annual contract, only 1.6mn tonnes arrived in Jan.–Mar.· KEPCO posted its first quarterly YoY revenue decline since 1Q21· Hana Securities, 8/14 | Revised renewable-energy setback-distance decree takes effect Sep. 18· Winter spot procurement |
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S5
06· MARKET LOGICSector Selection Rule
06
Next week,
only sectors that outperform
twice
When the No. 1 sector changed every day,
what should selection be based on?A one-day gain cannot identify next week's winner.
What remains is persistence,· breadth,· and flows — three filters.
The index rose in one direction,
but money did not stay in any one sector for long.
but money did not stay in any one sector for long.
Share of Advancing Stocks· KOSPI
was lowest on Wednesday and Thursday, the two biggest index-up days· That is why a different sector topped the table each day.
| Date | No. 1 That Day | Next Day |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 8/10 | Nonferrous Metals +10.01% | on 8/14 −2.31%fell into the lower ranks |
| Tue 8/11 | Internet & Catalog Retail +3.92% | 8/12 +11.06% then on 8/13 −8.17% |
| Wed 8/12 | Consumer Electronics +12.40% | driven by LG Electronics +12.82%; a different sector ranked No. 1 the next day |
| Thu 8/13 | Electronic Equipment & Instruments +9.28% | Samsung Electro-Mechanics +12.58%, then only +3.66% on 8/14 |
| Fri 8/14 | Wireless Telecom Services +8.49% | on 8/10 was −2.71% near the bottom |
| No repeated No. 1 across five sessions · using a one-day return directly for next-week selection would reproduce the same outcome as Week 1 of August. | ||
- On Wednesday and Thursday, the two biggest index-up days, only 41.9% and 37.0% of KOSPI stocks advanced.
- Foreign net buying remained concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix · on Aug. 13 alone, KRW 1.5489tn and KRW 1.0551tn flowed into the two names.
- On the same day, of 902 KOSPI names, 533 fell
- The pattern changed Friday: the advancing share doubled to 74.8%, yet the index gain narrowed.
- At the same time, institutions turned net sellers of large-cap semiconductors · for stock-level figures, see Section 04.
The money that had driven the index exited on the day breadth appeared · the final row of this table is that point.
| Sector | Weekly | vs. KOSPI |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical & Electronics | +16.49% | +5.00%p |
| Medical·Precision Instruments | +11.57% | +0.08%p |
| Machinery·Equipment | +8.87% | −2.62%p |
| Transportation·Warehousing | −1.31% | −12.80%p |
| Food & Beverage·Tobacco | −3.17% | −14.66%p |
| Electricity·Gas | −3.86% | −15.35%p |
| Among 23 KOSPI sectors, only Electrical & Electronics and Medical · Precision Instruments beat KOSPI's +11.49%. The other 21 either rose less than the index or fell. Even in a week when the daily leader changed every day, only one cluster remained on a weekly basis. | ||
All 23 KOSPI Sectors
| Sector | Weekly |
|---|---|
| Electrical & Electronics | +16.49% |
| Medical·Precision Instruments | +11.57% |
| Machinery·Equipment | +8.87% |
| IT Services | +7.17% |
| Securities | +7.08% |
| Telecom | +6.92% |
| Transportation Equipment·Components | +6.66% |
| Construction | +6.59% |
| Insurance | +6.02% |
| Financials | +5.86% |
| Metals | +5.39% |
| Distribution | +3.92% |
| Real Estate | +3.76% |
| Chemicals | +3.23% |
| General Services | +2.12% |
| Textiles·Apparel | +0.68% |
| Pharmaceuticals | +0.59% |
| Paper·Wood | +0.49% |
| Nonmetals | −0.44% |
| Transportation·Warehousing | −1.31% |
| Entertainment·Culture | −2.07% |
| Food & Beverage·Tobacco | −3.17% |
| Electricity·Gas | −3.86% |
| Manufacturing (+13.52%), a composite category, is excluded rather than treated as an individual sector · on KOSDAQ, Nonmetals +22.29%· and Machinery & Equipment +16.51% ranked near the top, while KOSDAQ 150 Communication Services −4.71%· and Entertainment & Culture −3.75% ranked near the bottom. | |
- A similar breadth signal appeared in the U.S. that night · Russell 2000 at a record high vs. semiconductor index −0.32%· Large-cap equipment·and design/IP names fell 5–6%
- The former leaders lost money while laggards rose, in both markets on the same day
- Only the direction was similar; the structures differed · Korea reflected foreign·and institutional flows · the U.S. reflected a market-cap-factor rotation
- Whether that broadening lasts more than one day is the next-week test in both markets
Next Week's Sector Selection Rule
Persistence over return; breadth over persistence; flows over breadth.
1Exclude sectors strong for only one day
2Keep only sectors that outperform for at least two days
3Among those, prioritize sectors where the number of advancing constituents also rises
4Finally, check whether foreign investors·and institutions point in the same direction
Applying this rule retrospectively leaves one sector this week: semiconductors · top-ranked for three straight sessions from Aug. 11 to 13.
- Margin-Loan Balance KRW 38.6tn on Jun. 24 → KRW 27.4tn on Aug. 4 · −29.1% · a deeper drawdown than the median −25.4% across six previous troughs
- Investor deposits also fell from a KRW 139tn peak → KRW 97.9tn on Aug. 11 · a decline of about KRW 40tn · Daishin Securities quant, 8/12
- That report's sequence after the trough is oversold names → small/mid caps → earnings improvement as breadth expands · this week was the first stage
- Korean industrials' 2026 EPS-growth estimate rose from 57.9% to 66.1% (+8.3%p), exceeding IT's +4.1%p upward revision · Kiwoom Securities, 8/14.
- IT's absolute level is still dominant at 531.7% · but the sector receiving the larger upward revision has changed
If broadening lasts more than one day, this is the evidence.
This Week's Regime Data· Reference dates differ
| Item | Figure | Reference Date |
|---|---|---|
| Margin-Loan Balance | Jun. 24 KRW 38.6tn → Aug. 4 KRW 27.4tn → Aug. 12 KRW 30.0tn | Aug. 12 |
| Investor Deposits | Peak KRW 139tn → KRW 97.9tn | Aug. 11 |
| KOSPI + KOSDAQ Turnover | May daily average KRW 64tn → KRW 28.3tn | Aug. 11 |
| VKOSPI | 6/29 96.94 → 54.96 | Aug. 13 |
| Regime data come from Daishin Securities' 8/12 quant report and 8/14 weekly outlook. | ||
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S6
07· LONG VIEWFinancing AI Investment
07
Where Did the Money
to Build Data Centers Come From?
Last week's subject was the timing gap between spending and earning.This week produced the next question.
Then where did the money being spent come from?
Wall Street's answer this week· Aug. 10
More Than $500bnNVIDIA and six financial firms are separately building standalone AI-compute financing platforms intended to mobilize, over time, third-party capital. This is not one joint fund, and it is not a committed deployment amount. Based on company releases.
1NVIDIAAI factories and compute are being defined as infrastructure assets that finance can price
2Apollo· BlackRock· Blackstone· Brookfield· Goldman Sachs· KKRSix financial firms are each pursuing separate financing platforms with NVIDIA
3Pension Funds· Insurance· Private Creditand capital outside hyperscaler balance sheets flows into capex
“In AI, compute is revenue.”Jensen Huang· Company Release
- The table below's estimated $500bn of balance-sheet debt is a separate funding channel. The new platforms target more than $500bn of third-party capital over time.
- Similar-sized figures are appearing through different funding channels · a sign of the financialization of AI investment
- Meritz Securities, 8/13 thesis · the phase of building with internal cash is ending → the phase of building with borrowed money begins
- Funding cost becomes a new risk axis alongside AI demand · if off-balance-sheet debt is included, the estimated debt burden triples.
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Capex | $800bn | Goldman Sachs estimate |
| 2027 Capex | $1tn | Goldman Sachs estimate |
| Cumulative Through 2031 | $7.6tn | Goldman Sachs estimate |
| Balance-Sheet Debt | $500bn | BIS·Nikkei |
| Estimated Debt Including Off-Balance-Sheet Exposure | $1.6tn | BIS·Nikkei estimate |
| Free Cash Flow Turns Negative | 4Q26 | Meritz estimate |
| Combined Losses Through Next Year | More Than $100bn | Meritz estimate |
| 2026 Net Increase in Investment-Grade Corporate-Bond Issuance | $2.2tn–$2.4tn | Raised after 2Q earnings |
| Investment-Grade Corporate-Bond Spread | About 130bp | CDS remains below 100bp· Meta exceeds 80bp |
| The $1.6tn off-balance-sheet debt figure is an estimate from the BIS and Nikkei, not a confirmed figure · read it alongside the balance-sheet number. | ||
CoreWeave 2Q Revenue+112%$2.58bn · Backlog $104bn
CoreWeave Annual Capex$35–39bnPlan Raised
Supermicro New Orders>$60bnThis Quarter · FY2027 revenue outlook: $65bn–$72bn
Demand evidence · and in the same week, a warning on financing appeared. That pairing is the point of this section.
- Section 04 shows the expectations problem from the other side: even if earnings beat, borrowed-money investment adds another yardstick.
- Rate hike → corporate-bond spread widens → the pace of construction itself begins to affect valuation
- This is where the hike probability in Section 03 connects to this section.
Demand is clear · financing is not.
Another Data Point With the Same Logic
Price already confirmed it once in July.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon · positive on data-center growth, but warned on financial leverage · Kyobo Securities, 8/10.
The same report: TMT hedge funds lost about 10% in July → forced position reduction worsened semiconductor flows.
This matches the regime explanation in Section 06: the Week 1 August selloff was not caused by earnings.
Rents are already rising· U.S. REITs
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Digital Realty renewal rents | +25.4% YoY· Products above 1MW: +66.7% |
| Equinix 2Q Revenue | $2.625bn· +16.4% YoY· Annualized New Bookings $424mn |
| 2026 YTD Total Return for U.S. REITs | +16.0%· +2.1%p vs. S&P 500 |
| 12-Month Forward P/FFO | About 20×· Average since 2019: high-18× range |
| Daishin Securities real-estate team, August 2026 publication · used only as evidence that the price of renting data-center capacity is already rising. | |
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S7
08· POLICYDelisting-Regime Reform
08
At the Bottom of the Market,
Things Moved the Other Way
What happened at the very bottom of the market in a week when the index rose 11%?While we talk about broadening within the same market,
the number of listed names is shrinking at the bottom.
RULE· Sequence of Delisting Rules
1Share price below KRW 1,000 for 30 consecutive trading days
or market cap below KRW 30bn on KOSPI· or KRW 20bn on KOSDAQ
or market cap below KRW 30bn on KOSPI· or KRW 20bn on KOSDAQ
2Designation as an Administrative Issue
3After designation, within 90 trading days,
the status is lifted if the standard is restored for 45 consecutive sessions
the status is lifted if the standard is restored for 45 consecutive sessions
From Jan. 1, 2027, market-cap thresholds rise to KRW 50bn for KOSPI· and KRW 30bn for KOSDAQ.
- The new delisting requirements took full effect July 1 · the conditions for triggering and clearing them are the three steps above
- Names separately flagged by the exchange for failing those requirements are Administrative Issues · the figures below show what the rules have produced at the market's bottom
MERGE· Reverse Stock Splits· Feb. 12 through Aug. 12 each year
20245 cases
202512 cases
2026276 cases
KOSPI 57 cases· KOSDAQ 219 cases· Hanwha Investment & Securities, Aug. 13
Share Price Declined After Reverse Split83.3%130 of 156 cases
Designation as an Administrative Issue33 companiesShare Price·Market-Cap Threshold Failure· SK Securities, Aug. 14
Designated on Aug. 13 Alone29 namesPenny stocks 20· Market-cap failures 12· Overlap 3
- A reverse stock splitdoes not change a company's total value · yet cases increased 55-fold in two years· and 83.3% ended with lower share prices
- Reverse splits used to clear a regulatory threshold · the market appears to read them that way too
- The broadening in Section 06 is an inside-the-index story · at the very bottom, the number of names is moving in the opposite direction
- Thresholds rise again in January 2027 · even in a bull market, the bottom of the market is thinning
The 33 administrative-issue company names are omitted · this section addresses the distribution created by the regime, not judgments on individual stocks.
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S8
09· BRIEFSThree Things With Dates Attached
09
Not a Single
Unified Theme,
But Answers Arrive
Within the Next Month
These will not dominate the quarter's narrative, but they can move specific sectors first; we selected only cases with already-defined confirmation dates.
DATES
Within AugustCheck Unitree listing-date announcement
8.21Apple response deadline
9.18Renewable-energy setback rule takes effect
All three receive an answer within the next month· Once the date passes, remove them from this section.
ROBOT· China
5,526 to 1· Unitree Allocation Complete
Hana Securities· 8/14
- STAR Market IPO allocation complete · listing date to be announced separately
- Final online allocation rate 0.0181%, an all-time low · about 9.78mn accounts subscribed
- Valuation at IPO price about $9bn · annualized P/E 118×
- Cumulative production about 18,000 units (11,000 in May) · 1H humanoid shipment share: AgiBot 44%· Unitree 31%
- Korean robotics theme +3.49% on Aug. 14
Physical AI·Humanoid Theme8/14 +3.49%
MEMORY· Regulation
Aug. 21 · Apple's response deadline
Hana Securities· 8/14
- U.S. Congress · asked Apple to stop using Chinese memory chips· Response requested by Aug. 21
- CXMT · 2Q revenue eight times the year-earlier level· Global DRAM share 7%· Earnings release Aug. 28
- A political date hanging over the memory supply chain · linked to Section 04.
- Depending on the response, volume could shift toward non-Chinese supply chains
CXMTEarnings 8/28
POWER· Policy
Renewable-energy setback rule takes effect Sep. 18
Hana Securities· 8/14
- Solar: 200m· Wind: 1,500m maximum setback under the revised decree · effective Sep. 18
- Haenam solar project groundbreaking · project cost KRW 684.6bn · 400MW · power purchase agreement for SK Hynix.
- HD Hyundai Heavy Industries·Kovan Energy engine-supply contract KRW 956bn · largest in company history
Haenam Solar400MW· SK Hynix PPAHD Hyundai Heavy IndustriesKRW 956bn
SUNG OH WEEKLY· S9
SCORECARDVerification Area Separated From the Main Text
Scoring Last Week ·
Where Did the Market Answer?
Only items designated in advance last week are verified. We score two axes carried over from last week and three sentence-form calls · the next evaluation axes are pre-designated in the table below.
Scorecard· Two Axes Carried Over From Last Week
| Axis | Pre-Set Criterion | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 02 U.S. 10-Year | Last weekly close above / below 4.745% | 8/14 Close 4.70% Below · Confirmed |
| 04 Foreign Cash Flow | KOSPI five-session cumulative flow: whether it turns net positive | +KRW 6.54tn Met |
| AI data centers remain removed from the candidate list after being designated “exclude”; banks, previously deferred, opened Aug. 10 at −2.67% before insurers rose later in the week. | ||
Scorecard· Three Narrative Calls
| Question From the Previous Issue | This Week's Result |
|---|---|
| Should we buy semiconductors again?· Foreign cash flow turns net positive· TSMC revenue holds up· Applied Materials guidance at the high end · if all three overlap, the buy case is established | Foreign flow turned Met +KRW 6.54tn TSMC July Revenue Met +44.7% YoY Applied Materials Guidance Met Next-quarter revenue guidance $10.25bn ±$0.5bn, more than 7% above the $9.54bn consensus All three conditions were met · price moved the other way. Regular session −5.12% ($507.18)· Broadcom −6%· Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −0.32%. First case where the conditions were met but price reacted in the opposite direction |
| Rate-Sensitive Growth Stocks· Sell if core is above 2.5%; do the opposite if below | No Call Core CPI was exactly 2.5% · neither above nor below, so the question cannot decide. The failure to specify equality in the threshold is a threshold-design issue to fix Item |
| Has foreign selling of large caps ended?· While it persists, ex-KOSPI 200 and small/mid caps have the edge | Ended KOSPI 200 rose from 974.73 to 1,098.18, outperforming KOSPI's +11.49% · large caps regained leadership |
Next Evaluation Axes· Pre-Designated
| Axis | Pre-Set Proxy Index and Decision Criterion | Confirmation Date |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Early Shareholder Return | Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix Filing· Whether announced within August | 8/31 |
| 02 Foreign-Only Buying | Cumulative KOSPI foreign flow·Institutions· Are both foreign investors and institutions net buyers, or foreigners only? | 8/21 Close |
| 03 Breadth | Share of advancing KOSPI stocks· Trading-day average above / below 50% | 8/21 Close |
| 04 September FOMC | CME FedWatch hold probability· Above / below 65% | 8/21 Close |
| 05 Oil | WTI Close· Above / below $85 | 8/21 Close |
| Conditions That Break the Thesis· U.S.·If a U.S.–Iran agreement is reached, the upside premise for 05 Oil weakens· 04 is reassessed toward lower oil-driven hike pressure· The Aug. 31 MSCI review could distort foreign flows and make 02 difficult to interpret· Because Aug. 17 is a market holiday and Korea has only four trading sessions, five-day indicators require a redefined measurement period. | ||
This Week's Confirmed Data· In One Place
| Category | 08.07 | 08.14 | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,258.77 | 6,977.94 | +11.49% |
| KOSPI 200 | 974.73 | 1,098.18 | +12.67% |
| KOSDAQ | 798.81 | 864.65 | +8.24% |
| Category | 08.07 | 08.14 | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 54,036.93 | 53,732.41 | −0.56% |
| S&P500 | 7,757.64 | 7,785.76 | +0.36% |
| Nasdaq | 26,690.62 | 26,729.16 | +0.14% |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index | 12,356.79 | 12,417.05 | +0.49% |
| Russell 2000 | N/A | 3,068.42 | +0.51% (day) |
| U.S. 10-Year | 4.660% | 4.70% | +4.0bp |
| U.S. 2-Year | N/A | 4.18% | +2.7bp (day) |
| S&P 500's Aug. 13 close of 7,798.99 was an all-time high· then it gave back 0.17% on Aug. 14. Russell 2000 closed at a record on Aug. 14. On Aug. 14, Dow −0.20%· S&P500 −0.17%· Nasdaq −0.28%· and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −40.40 points.· U.S. 2-year figure is the Aug. 14 daily move. | |||
What We Left Out of This Issue· and Why
| Item | Reason |
|---|---|
| Weekly USD/KRW Close | The Aug. 14 value was collected from a reference-rate series · because that differs from the Korean FX market's 15:30 weekly close series, the weekly return is excluded |
| Mixing Daily and Weekly Sector Returns | Daily figures use Naver Finance sector indexes· weekly figures use the KRX Information Data System · calculation methods differ, so they are not mixed in one table · this is why Section 06 uses two separate tables |
| Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix Individual Weekly Return | KRX Samsung Electronics Index +18.83%· KRX SK Hynix Index +15.68%, shown as index-series figures |
| Final Digits of Weekly Institutional Total | Daily sum KRW 777bn · Aug. 14 daily report showed KRW 779bn. Until the KRW 2bn difference is sourced, we round and report KRW 0.78tn |
Calculation Basis· Do Not Mix Different Series
Weekly index returns compare index to index · Aug. 7 close through Aug. 14 close · KOSPI 200 +12.67% uses the same method.
Flow totals and cumulative figures use Naver Finance investor data · stock-level figures use KRX regular-market data · we exclude both mixing them inside one card and computing shares across those series. That is why stock-level net-buy amounts in the text are not divided by aggregate totals.
Sector returns use two series · daily uses Naver Finance sector indexes· weekly final data uses KRX Information Data System KOSPI sector indexes
Different calculation methods · not mixed in one table· Each figure shows its date and series
Hana Securities Telecom· Return figures in Daol Investment & Securities' weekly report are excluded because the aggregation window differs from our reference period
September hike probability uses CME FedWatch · snapshot times differ by source · the body shows the median; the table shows each source's snapshot.
Company names in the body are those cited by the brokerage reports · not recommendations to buy specific stocks · target prices include their setting dates.
SOURCESData and Sources
Research· Indicator· Prices
Rates·Macro iM Securities, “July CPI and the Case for a September FOMC Hold,” 8/13· Eugene Investment & Securities, “July Inflation and a Weaker Case for a September Rate Hike,” 8/13· Hanwha Investment & Securities, “U.S. July CPI Passes Its Peak,” 8/13· Kiwoom Securities, “CPI Disinflation and Curve Steepening,” 8/13· Kiwoom Securities, “Next Week's Macro Calendar,” 8/14· IBK Investment & Securities, “Weak U.S. Employment and Equities,” 8/14· IBK Investment & Securities, “Rate Threshold: DKW Model,” 8/14· Yuanta Securities Korea, “Japan Financial Markets: 15 Questions, 15 Answers,” 8/14· Kyobo Securities, “Yen Intervention and Yuan Appreciation,” 8/13· Eugene Investment & Securities, “FICC Daily,” 8/13· 8/14
Semiconductors·Market Logic Daishin Securities, “Semiconductors: It Isn't Over,” 8/13· SK Securities, “Memory's Long Cycle, Compute Becomes an Asset,” 8/13· Kiwoom Securities, “HBM Accelerates, Commodity Memory Peaks Out,” 8/11· Eugene Investment & Securities, “NVIDIA·vs. AMD: Different Infrastructure Solutions,” 8/11· Daishin Securities, “KOSPI Weekly Outlook,” 8/14· Daishin Securities, “Factor Rotation After the Margin-Balance Trough,” 8/12· Kiwoom Securities, “Growth-Stock Rotation,” 8/14· Daol Investment & Securities, “Market Weekly,” 8/14· iM Securities, “Semiconductor Concentration Eases, Rotation Broadens,” 8/10· Kyobo Securities, “Wall Street's King on AI Leverage Risk,” 8/10
Sector iM Securities, “Secondary Batteries: ESS Transition Accelerates,” 8/13· Hana Securities, “Refining: Reassessing the OSP Structure,” 8/10· Eugene Investment & Securities, “Actual Supply Matters More Than OPEC Output Hikes,” 8/11· Kiwoom Securities, “Crude-Oil Volatility,” 8/13· Daishin Securities, “NATO Joint Procurement and Defense Re-Rating,” 8/11· Hana Securities, “Telecom Services·· Equipment Weekly,” 8/14· Hana Securities, “Utilities Weekly,” 8/14· Hana Securities, “China Weekly· · Unitree Listing,” 8/14· Hana Securities, “SpaceX Terrestrial Entry and Telecom Equipment,” 8/11· Yuanta Securities Korea, “Hanwha Aerospace's Acquisition of a KAI Stake,” 8/11
Financing·Policy Meritz Securities, “AI Investment-Cost Risk,” 8/13· NVIDIA company release, “AI Compute Infrastructure Financing Platforms,” 8/10· Daishin Securities Real Estate Team, “U.S. REITs 2Q26 Earnings Review,” 2026.08· Hanwha Investment & Securities, “Flood of Reverse Splits and Stock Splits,” 8/13· SK Securities, “33 Administrative Issues and the Delisting Regime,” 8/14· Hanwha Investment & Securities, “Expanded Separate Election of Audit Committee Members,” 8/12· Kiwoom Securities, “Commercial Code Revision, Shareholder Meetings and Capital Allocation,” 8/11
Primary Data U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · July Consumer Price Index· July Producer Price Index· July Employment Situation· U.S. Census Bureau · July Retail Sales· Federal Reserve · July FOMC Statement and Vote· U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · June Personal Consumption Expenditures· CME FedWatch
Prices·Flows Naver Finance investor-flow data· Naver Finance sector·and theme indexes· KRX Information Data System · weekly index returns (Aug. 7 close → Aug. 14 close)· Korea Customs Service · preliminary exports for Aug. 1–10· Our Daily Report, Aug. 10· 11· 12· and 13· 14